SPORTS WAGERS
Colorado –1½ +1.12 over NY METS
What we have here in terms of the starting pitchers is pure luck vs pure skill and it’s not in the Mets favor. Mike Pelfrey has already peaked this year with his peak level being a durable, reliable, humdrum level. As a ground-baller with poor command, results seem tied to swings of fortune. Way back at the start of the year, Pelfrey was completing a dazzling April -- a month in which he compiled a 4-0 record and a 0.69 ERA. Not surprisingly, his stock was soaring but many pundits branded him a fluke and they were right. Pelfrey's month-to-month performance shows little variation in skills, but luck played a big part in his April performance. Pelfrey's strand rate in April (94%) was thought to be unsustainable and rightly so. The stand rate seen in May and June (73%) normalized somewhat and as a result, Pelfrey’s numbers went south. Over the last 31 days everything has come to a head and now Pelfrey is walking too many batters, he’s allowing a ton of runs and his strand rate was very high once again at (88%). Since June 30, Pelfrey has seen his ERA rise from 2.37 to the current 4.17 Over that stretch covering 28 frames, Pelfrey has allowed a ridiculous 62 hits and in five of those seven starts he barely made it out of the fourth inning. Pelfrey has been batting practice out there and at the end of the day, the fact is he’s just a poor pitcher that got very lucky early on. Ubaldo Jiminez needs no introduction but it is worth noting that the Rocks are once again seeing beach balls and have scored 68 runs over its past 10 games. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.74 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg will be on a 90-pitch limit in his first start coming off the DL. Add his 23% line-drive rate and 80% strand rate to the mix and a struggle or two in the near term wouldn’t be a shock. In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him limited to 65 pitches, as the Nats are not going to fool around with this guy. Why would they? Anibal Sanchez has performed extremely well in four of his last five starts and he’ll face a Nats team that’s batting .237 in August thus far. Sanchez was hit pretty hard in his last start when he faced Philly and lasted just four innings. However, that was right after he threw a one-hit shutout against the Giants five days earlier and a letdown often follows a true gem. Sanchez has struck out 22 batters over his last 19 frames and could definitely have another good game here. He’s only allowed five jacks all season in 128 innings. The bottom line here is that Strasburg will be limited for sure and it certainly is not out of the question that the Marlins could be leading, tied or down a run in the fifth inning, when Strasburg will be lifted and that creates a great opportunity at a very sweet price. Play: Florida +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
COM
CHICAGO/Minnesota over 9
One has to figure at least one or maybe both of these teams to score a bunch. This is the AL’s second-best scoring and best HR venue. Scott Baker has pitched well over his last three starts, but his 1.2 hr/9 is a significant risk in the Cell vs. a CHW team that averages 1.5 HR per game at home. Furthermore, the Twins offense is on fire since the break, averaging an AL-best six-plus runs per game and will face the very hittable Freddy Garcia here. Garcia, too, has had three good starts in a row but he faced the Tigers, Seattle and Oakland over that stretch and now takes a huge step up in class when facing a difficult offense in a difficult hitter’s park. It’s also worth noting that current Twins hitters are batting a collective .400 against Baker (24 for 60) and the conditions tonight do not favor the pitcher. The early report is: partly cloudy, rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 MPH. Game time temperature around 85. But the real temperature for this one is over the total. Play: Chicago/Minnesota over 9 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Colorado –1½ +1.12 over NY METS
What we have here in terms of the starting pitchers is pure luck vs pure skill and it’s not in the Mets favor. Mike Pelfrey has already peaked this year with his peak level being a durable, reliable, humdrum level. As a ground-baller with poor command, results seem tied to swings of fortune. Way back at the start of the year, Pelfrey was completing a dazzling April -- a month in which he compiled a 4-0 record and a 0.69 ERA. Not surprisingly, his stock was soaring but many pundits branded him a fluke and they were right. Pelfrey's month-to-month performance shows little variation in skills, but luck played a big part in his April performance. Pelfrey's strand rate in April (94%) was thought to be unsustainable and rightly so. The stand rate seen in May and June (73%) normalized somewhat and as a result, Pelfrey’s numbers went south. Over the last 31 days everything has come to a head and now Pelfrey is walking too many batters, he’s allowing a ton of runs and his strand rate was very high once again at (88%). Since June 30, Pelfrey has seen his ERA rise from 2.37 to the current 4.17 Over that stretch covering 28 frames, Pelfrey has allowed a ridiculous 62 hits and in five of those seven starts he barely made it out of the fourth inning. Pelfrey has been batting practice out there and at the end of the day, the fact is he’s just a poor pitcher that got very lucky early on. Ubaldo Jiminez needs no introduction but it is worth noting that the Rocks are once again seeing beach balls and have scored 68 runs over its past 10 games. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.74 over WASHINGTON
Stephen Strasburg will be on a 90-pitch limit in his first start coming off the DL. Add his 23% line-drive rate and 80% strand rate to the mix and a struggle or two in the near term wouldn’t be a shock. In fact, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him limited to 65 pitches, as the Nats are not going to fool around with this guy. Why would they? Anibal Sanchez has performed extremely well in four of his last five starts and he’ll face a Nats team that’s batting .237 in August thus far. Sanchez was hit pretty hard in his last start when he faced Philly and lasted just four innings. However, that was right after he threw a one-hit shutout against the Giants five days earlier and a letdown often follows a true gem. Sanchez has struck out 22 batters over his last 19 frames and could definitely have another good game here. He’s only allowed five jacks all season in 128 innings. The bottom line here is that Strasburg will be limited for sure and it certainly is not out of the question that the Marlins could be leading, tied or down a run in the fifth inning, when Strasburg will be lifted and that creates a great opportunity at a very sweet price. Play: Florida +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
COM
CHICAGO/Minnesota over 9
One has to figure at least one or maybe both of these teams to score a bunch. This is the AL’s second-best scoring and best HR venue. Scott Baker has pitched well over his last three starts, but his 1.2 hr/9 is a significant risk in the Cell vs. a CHW team that averages 1.5 HR per game at home. Furthermore, the Twins offense is on fire since the break, averaging an AL-best six-plus runs per game and will face the very hittable Freddy Garcia here. Garcia, too, has had three good starts in a row but he faced the Tigers, Seattle and Oakland over that stretch and now takes a huge step up in class when facing a difficult offense in a difficult hitter’s park. It’s also worth noting that current Twins hitters are batting a collective .400 against Baker (24 for 60) and the conditions tonight do not favor the pitcher. The early report is: partly cloudy, rain. Winds blowing out to right field at 5-10 MPH. Game time temperature around 85. But the real temperature for this one is over the total. Play: Chicago/Minnesota over 9 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
MR A
Minnesota Twins (63-49) at Chicago White Sox (63-49)
(R) Scott Baker (9-9) vs. (R) Freddy Garcia (10-4)
Chicago White Sox -115
Oddsmakers line:
Chicago as a -115 home favorite over Minnesota with the total listed at 9'over'
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 10:15 p.m. est.
Chicago Cubs (47-65) at San Francisco Giants (64-49)
(R) Ryan Dempster (9-8) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (11-5)
San Francisco Giants -190
Minnesota Twins (63-49) at Chicago White Sox (63-49)
(R) Scott Baker (9-9) vs. (R) Freddy Garcia (10-4)
Chicago White Sox -115
Oddsmakers line:
Chicago as a -115 home favorite over Minnesota with the total listed at 9'over'
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 10:15 p.m. est.
Chicago Cubs (47-65) at San Francisco Giants (64-49)
(R) Ryan Dempster (9-8) vs. (R) Tim Lincecum (11-5)
San Francisco Giants -190
GINA
Boston Red Sox (64-49) at Toronto Blue Jays (59-52)
(R) Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-3) vs. (L) Ricky Romero (9-7)
Toronto has won five of its last six games and took two out of three from the NY Yankees this weekend, but could have difficulties with Boston. The Red Sox are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings versus the Blue Jays and have won eight of the last nine in Toronto. Making matters worse, they will face Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has won sixth straight over the Blue Jays and the Red Sox have won Matsuzaka's last 8 starts versus Toronto. Toronto will send Ricky Romero to the hill. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in right-hander’s last 6 starts against the Red Sox, 0-4 in his last 4 at home against them.
Go with Boston with the Japanese hurler at the helm. Matsuzaka has won his last three decisions and is 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA in nine career starts against the Blue Jays. Lefthander Ricky Romero is just 1-4 with a whopping 8.76 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox +115
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 7:05 p.m. est.
Los Angeles Dodgers (58-54) at Philadelphia Phillies (62-49)
(R) Vicente Padilla (5-3) vs. (R) Kyle Kendrick (7-4)
The struggling Dodgers have dropped eight of their last 12 games, 0-5 in its last 5 on the road and are 2-10 in their last 12 games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Go with Philadelphia at home. The Phillies are 13-1 in its last 14 home games.
Philadelphia Phillies -110
Boston Red Sox (64-49) at Toronto Blue Jays (59-52)
(R) Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-3) vs. (L) Ricky Romero (9-7)
Toronto has won five of its last six games and took two out of three from the NY Yankees this weekend, but could have difficulties with Boston. The Red Sox are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings versus the Blue Jays and have won eight of the last nine in Toronto. Making matters worse, they will face Daisuke Matsuzaka, who has won sixth straight over the Blue Jays and the Red Sox have won Matsuzaka's last 8 starts versus Toronto. Toronto will send Ricky Romero to the hill. The Blue Jays are 1-5 in right-hander’s last 6 starts against the Red Sox, 0-4 in his last 4 at home against them.
Go with Boston with the Japanese hurler at the helm. Matsuzaka has won his last three decisions and is 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA in nine career starts against the Blue Jays. Lefthander Ricky Romero is just 1-4 with a whopping 8.76 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox.
Boston Red Sox +115
Tuesday, August 10, 2010 7:05 p.m. est.
Los Angeles Dodgers (58-54) at Philadelphia Phillies (62-49)
(R) Vicente Padilla (5-3) vs. (R) Kyle Kendrick (7-4)
The struggling Dodgers have dropped eight of their last 12 games, 0-5 in its last 5 on the road and are 2-10 in their last 12 games against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Go with Philadelphia at home. The Phillies are 13-1 in its last 14 home games.
Philadelphia Phillies -110
Ryan Bennet
TUESDAYS MLB:
CINCINNATI REDS (-125) 7:10PM EST - 5 UNITS
CINCINNATI REDS (-135) 1ST 5INNINGS - 5 UNITS
ATLANTA BRAVES (-130) 8:05PM EST - 5 UNITS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-110) 7:05OM EST - 4 UNITS
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ DETROIT TIGERS - OVER 8 (-115) 7:05PM EST - 4 UNITS
COLORADO ROCKIES / 1ST 5 INNINGS (-155) 7:10PM EST - 4 UNITS
COLORADO ROCKIES (-150) 7:10PM EST - 4 UNITS
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TUESDAYS MLB:
CINCINNATI REDS (-125) 7:10PM EST - 5 UNITS
CINCINNATI REDS (-135) 1ST 5INNINGS - 5 UNITS
ATLANTA BRAVES (-130) 8:05PM EST - 5 UNITS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (-110) 7:05OM EST - 4 UNITS
TAMPA BAY RAYS @ DETROIT TIGERS - OVER 8 (-115) 7:05PM EST - 4 UNITS
COLORADO ROCKIES / 1ST 5 INNINGS (-155) 7:10PM EST - 4 UNITS
COLORADO ROCKIES (-150) 7:10PM EST - 4 UNITS
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B&S PICKS
League Game Date/Time Game Pick Type Pick Unit Value
MLB 8/10/2010
7:10:00 PM St. Louis at Cincinnati moneyline Cincinnati/Johnny Cueto -140 ML
BOOKIE BASHER PLAY 5 DIMES
MLB 8/10/2010
8:05:00 PM NY Yankees at Texas moneyline Texas/C.J. Wilson -135 ML
SYNDICATE PLAY 5 DIMES
MLB 8/10/2010
10:15:00 PM Chi Cubs at San Francisco moneyline San Francisco/Tim Lincecum -200 ML
REGULAR PLAY 5 DIMES
League Game Date/Time Game Pick Type Pick Unit Value
MLB 8/10/2010
7:10:00 PM St. Louis at Cincinnati moneyline Cincinnati/Johnny Cueto -140 ML
BOOKIE BASHER PLAY 5 DIMES
MLB 8/10/2010
8:05:00 PM NY Yankees at Texas moneyline Texas/C.J. Wilson -135 ML
SYNDICATE PLAY 5 DIMES
MLB 8/10/2010
10:15:00 PM Chi Cubs at San Francisco moneyline San Francisco/Tim Lincecum -200 ML
REGULAR PLAY 5 DIMES
Hot pitchers
-- ASanchez has 2.79 RA in his last three starts. Strasburg is 3-0, 2.04 in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts. Padilla is 4-2, 1.48 in his last eight starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Cueto is 5-1, 1.71 in his last nine starts.
-- Enright is 2-0, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Giants are 9-3 in last dozen Lincecum starts.
-- Scherzer is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts. Hellickson beat Twins in his big leagie debut 4-2, allowing two runs in seven IP.
-- Matsuzaka is 3-0, 2.48 in his last five starts. Romero is 3-1, 2.64 in his last four outings.
-- White Sox won 13 of last 16 FGarcia starts. Baker is 2-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 1.35 in his last couple road starts. Rangers won last four Wilson starts (3-0, 3.09).
-- Anderson is 2-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Mets lost last six Pelfrey starts (0-4, 10.30).
-- Braves are 1-5 in Jurrjens road starts (0-4, 6.81).
-- JGarcia has 6.04 RA in his last five starts.
-- Happ is 1-1, 9.00 in two starts for Houston.
-- Parra is 1-4, 8.76 in his last seven starts.
-- Karstens is 0-5, 4.96 in his last eight starts. LeBlanc is 1-4, 5.04 in his last five starts.
-- Dempster is 1-1, 7.36 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 0-1, 6.33 in his last four starts. Masterson is 1-3, 7.49 in his last six starts.
-- Bullington was Angels are 0-3 in Haren starts (0-2, 3.60).
-- FHernandez is 0-1, 3.19 in his last five starts; Mariners scored once in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Four of last five ASanchez starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Kendrick starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Jimenez starts went over the total.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Cueto's last seven home starts.
-- Six of last nine Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Parra starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Karstens road starts stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 14-6 in Tampa Bay's last 20 road games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Arrieta starts.
|-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Boston road games.
-- Five of last seven Burnett road starts stayed under the total.
-- Last four FGarcia starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Kansas City road games.
-- Four of last five Anderson starts stayed under the total.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins are 9-6 in their last fifteen road games. Nationals are 11-8 in their last 19 home games.
-- Phillies are 13-1 in their last 14 home games.
-- Cincinnati won nine of its last twelve games. Cardinals won three of their last four.
-- Rockies won seven of their last ten games.
-- Astros won their last six home games.
-- Brewers are 10-3 in last thirteen games at Miller Park. Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Padres are 9-3 in their last dozen home games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven home games.
-- Toronto won five of its last six games. Red Sox won five of last seven road games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
-- Twins are 12-3 in their last fifteen games.
-- Bronx is 14-5 in its last nineteen road games. Rangers won five of last seven at home.
-- A's are 10-7 in their last seventeen road games.
Cold Teams
-- Dodgers are 1-9 on road since All-Star break.
-- Mets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Braves lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Pirates lost their last four road games.
-- Cubs lost eleven of their last twelve games.
-- Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games. Tigers lost 14 of their last 17 games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 14 road games. Angels lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Mariners lost 10 of their last 14 games.
-- ASanchez has 2.79 RA in his last three starts. Strasburg is 3-0, 2.04 in his last three starts.
-- Kendrick is 2-0, 1.86 in his last three starts. Padilla is 4-2, 1.48 in his last eight starts.
-- Jimenez is 2-0, 1.29 in his last couple starts.
-- Cueto is 5-1, 1.71 in his last nine starts.
-- Enright is 2-0, 2.42 in his last four starts.
-- Giants are 9-3 in last dozen Lincecum starts.
-- Scherzer is 1-1, 2.42 in his last four starts. Hellickson beat Twins in his big leagie debut 4-2, allowing two runs in seven IP.
-- Matsuzaka is 3-0, 2.48 in his last five starts. Romero is 3-1, 2.64 in his last four outings.
-- White Sox won 13 of last 16 FGarcia starts. Baker is 2-0, 2.21 in his last three starts.
-- Burnett is 2-0, 1.35 in his last couple road starts. Rangers won last four Wilson starts (3-0, 3.09).
-- Anderson is 2-1, 2.05 in his last three starts.
Cold pitchers
-- Mets lost last six Pelfrey starts (0-4, 10.30).
-- Braves are 1-5 in Jurrjens road starts (0-4, 6.81).
-- JGarcia has 6.04 RA in his last five starts.
-- Happ is 1-1, 9.00 in two starts for Houston.
-- Parra is 1-4, 8.76 in his last seven starts.
-- Karstens is 0-5, 4.96 in his last eight starts. LeBlanc is 1-4, 5.04 in his last five starts.
-- Dempster is 1-1, 7.36 in his last four starts.
-- Arrieta is 0-1, 6.33 in his last four starts. Masterson is 1-3, 7.49 in his last six starts.
-- Bullington was Angels are 0-3 in Haren starts (0-2, 3.60).
-- FHernandez is 0-1, 3.19 in his last five starts; Mariners scored once in his last three starts.
Totals
-- Four of last five ASanchez starts stayed under the total.
-- Six of last eight Kendrick starts went over the total.
-- Six of last eight Jimenez starts went over the total.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in Cueto's last seven home starts.
-- Six of last nine Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Parra starts went over the total.
-- Five of last six Karstens road starts stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Cub games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 14-6 in Tampa Bay's last 20 road games.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in last nine Arrieta starts.
|-- Under is 6-1-2 in last nine Boston road games.
-- Five of last seven Burnett road starts stayed under the total.
-- Last four FGarcia starts went over the total.
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Kansas City road games.
-- Four of last five Anderson starts stayed under the total.
Hot Teams
-- Marlins are 9-6 in their last fifteen road games. Nationals are 11-8 in their last 19 home games.
-- Phillies are 13-1 in their last 14 home games.
-- Cincinnati won nine of its last twelve games. Cardinals won three of their last four.
-- Rockies won seven of their last ten games.
-- Astros won their last six home games.
-- Brewers are 10-3 in last thirteen games at Miller Park. Arizona won four of its last five games.
-- Padres are 9-3 in their last dozen home games.
-- Giants won six of their last seven home games.
-- Toronto won five of its last six games. Red Sox won five of last seven road games.
-- Orioles won six of their last seven games.
-- Twins are 12-3 in their last fifteen games.
-- Bronx is 14-5 in its last nineteen road games. Rangers won five of last seven at home.
-- A's are 10-7 in their last seventeen road games.
Cold Teams
-- Dodgers are 1-9 on road since All-Star break.
-- Mets lost five of their last seven games.
-- Braves lost six of their last eight road games.
-- Pirates lost their last four road games.
-- Cubs lost eleven of their last twelve games.
-- Indians lost three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay lost five of its last six games. Tigers lost 14 of their last 17 games.
-- White Sox lost three of their last four games.
-- Royals lost 11 of their last 14 road games. Angels lost five of their last eight home games.
-- Mariners lost 10 of their last 14 games.
