SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +110 over L.A. Angels
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)
Buck Showalter has to be manager of the year. He’s kept the Orioles at or near the top of the AL East with probably the worst pitching staff in the division. The Orioles don’t have a front-line starter and they don’t even have what would be considered a #2 starter. They have five unreliable starters and among that group is Chris Tillman. The good news is that Tillman has been a strong second half pitcher when healthy. In 2012, his post All-Star oppBA was .221 in 77.2 innings. Last season his oppBA after the All-Star break was .214 in 94 frames and this season in two starts after the break his oppBA is .188. There are many encouraging nuggets in Tillman’s rather gaudy second half numbers over two plus years and counting. It includes a 66% groundball rate and that makes him worthy of backing as a pooch at home against Jered Weaver.
Once again Weaver is besting his xERA by a wide margin. Somehow, someway, he keeps going out there with an 86 MPH fastball and a 33%/50% groundball/fly-ball split and keeps getting hitters out consistently. If Weaver had outstanding secondary pitches we could understand it but he does not. His strong numbers this season have come mostly at home, where he has started 13 of 22 games. Pitching that many games at the Big A has helped him keep his ERA in check but the road has been a different story. Weaver’s road ERA of 4.45 is almost two full runs higher than his home ERA. In 54 road innings, Weaver has been taken yard 10 times. The Orioles are second in the majors in HR’s with 125 and figure to take Weaver deep once or twice here. Weaver is considered to be an ace by almost everyone because he’s consistently won for years. However, we’re here to tell you that he has defied logic for an extended period of time and his charmed life could come crashing down in a big way at any time. Trusting him on the road as the chalk is a risk we’re not willing to take.
Chicago @ DETROIT
Chicago +152 over DETROIT
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)
The White Sox are hitting .281 over the past 15 games which ranks third in the majors behind the Rockies and Blue Jays. They now get a crack at Anibal Sanchez. With so much attention being given to Justin Verlander's recent struggles, Sanchez’s troubles have gone pretty much unnoticed and we’ll attempt to take advantage. Despite posting a worthy follow-up to 2013's career-best numbers, you may not have noticed a new wart in Sanchez's game. Sanchez is having punch-out problems. Sanchez has seen a marked drop in strikeout rate since April - 9.4 K’s/9, followed by a month to month count of 7.5, 5.8 and finally 1.6, which is a sharp contrast to '13's double-digit K-rate and 13% swing and miss rate. Despite the huge drop off, his ERA remains sterling thanks to a lucky hit% and a 3% hr/f% that's sure to correct. A 44%/23% dominant start/disaster start split confirms that he hasn't been the same pitcher this season. Over his last 32 innings, Sanchez has whiffed just 17 batters and has posted a 1.41 WHIP and 5.32 ERA. Sanchez missed nearly a month between April and May with a bad blister on his middle finger, and seeing as his activation from the DL corresponds with the sharp strikeout rate drop, it's possible it hasn't fully healed or is affecting his grip in some way. If that's not the case, however, Sanchez is in for a rude awakening in the second half when the luck factors suppressing his 4.40 xERA begin to correct. Selling high might not be a bad idea.
Jose Quintana made his debut in May of 2012 with the White Sox, who were in need of staff depth for a double-header. At the time, he had logged just six starts at Double-A. With just an average fastball (86-91), lack of a swing-and miss curve, and a raw change-up, Quintana’s limited projection was based mainly on his pitchability. Already 23 at that time, Quintana was in his third organization and 2012 was his first season above High-A ball. After a relief debut and demotion back to Double-A, he was recalled later that month and ended up with 22 starts with the South Side in 2012. He ended the season with a sub-4.00 ERA, though his middling skills, including a weak strikeout rate, seemed to confirm his back-of-rotation expectation. He became rotation fixture in 2013, however, and improved his peripherals to the point where Quintana became interesting. Though his first 21 starts of 2014 Quintana’s skills are bordering on elite. He’s maintained good control; not exceptional but plenty good enough. Importantly, Quintana is piling up the strikeouts at a rate much better than his minor-league 6.7 K’s/9 from 2012. Though he’s had some hr/f help in 2014, hit and strand rates are within the acceptable range. His xERA mark also clearly shows he’s maintained his skills. In addition to his strikeout spike since July of 2013, Quintana has also benefitted from a big jump in ground balls in 2014. One other important difference is his platoon splits in which he’s been just as good against both RH and LH hitters. Quintana obviously is bringing more to the table than what his early scouting reports envisioned. He’s much more well-rounded and consistent than just about any “non-ace” in the game. His adjustments in 2013’s second half and in 2014 have brought more strikeouts (118 in 131 innings this year and 35 over his past 34 frames) and groundballs and overall better command. Plus, he’s got intangibles on his side. Quintana is a strike-thrower, works quickly, has a durable frame (6-1, 220), has shown he can evolve. His pitching coach Don Cooper has as high of a reputation as any pitching coach in the game, and on a team with Chris Sale, Quintana is not expected to lead the staff. Yet in the market, Quintana is still undervalued. He’s grown into a solid #2 starter and his peripherals suggest that his current success is sustainable. In fact, there may even be some more upside as he continues to learn how to pitch and succeed in the big leagues. Perhaps his adjustment cycle is only beginning. This kid can pitch and offers up tremendous value in this range against a Detroit team that has scored just two runs over its past three games, all losses.
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
Tim Hudson owns the third-lowest hit rate in the NL with runners on base. His 19% H% in that situation combined with a 0% hr/f with runners on has fueled his surface stats (2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Hudson's continued combination of command and groundballs will still give him value but as the chalk pitching for a struggling offense, the value on him diminishes greatly. At age 38, his skills are good but NOT this good so an ERA correction in the second half is forthcoming.
The Pirates took the opener last night by a score of 5-0. The Giants have now lost five in a row while scoring a combined five runs over those five games. Ouch. Pressing at the dish, San Fran now has to face Francisco Liriano. Liriano has just four wins in 17 starts, which makes him an undervalued chucker. All he’s done is rendered RH batters helpless, conquered gopheritis and has notched a career-best swing and miss rate of 14%. History says it all; terrific strikeout rate (93 K’s in 88 frames this year) with volatile control but with the Giants pressing at the plate you can be sure they’ll be swinging at plenty of pitches outside the zone. Furthermore, Liriano’s groundball rate of 52% is also the highest mark of his career so while the wins have been difficult to come by, his skills say he’s in for a big second half and this is a great time to be taking back a tag against the Giants.
MLB
L.A. Angels @ BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE +110 over L.A. Angels
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)
Buck Showalter has to be manager of the year. He’s kept the Orioles at or near the top of the AL East with probably the worst pitching staff in the division. The Orioles don’t have a front-line starter and they don’t even have what would be considered a #2 starter. They have five unreliable starters and among that group is Chris Tillman. The good news is that Tillman has been a strong second half pitcher when healthy. In 2012, his post All-Star oppBA was .221 in 77.2 innings. Last season his oppBA after the All-Star break was .214 in 94 frames and this season in two starts after the break his oppBA is .188. There are many encouraging nuggets in Tillman’s rather gaudy second half numbers over two plus years and counting. It includes a 66% groundball rate and that makes him worthy of backing as a pooch at home against Jered Weaver.
Once again Weaver is besting his xERA by a wide margin. Somehow, someway, he keeps going out there with an 86 MPH fastball and a 33%/50% groundball/fly-ball split and keeps getting hitters out consistently. If Weaver had outstanding secondary pitches we could understand it but he does not. His strong numbers this season have come mostly at home, where he has started 13 of 22 games. Pitching that many games at the Big A has helped him keep his ERA in check but the road has been a different story. Weaver’s road ERA of 4.45 is almost two full runs higher than his home ERA. In 54 road innings, Weaver has been taken yard 10 times. The Orioles are second in the majors in HR’s with 125 and figure to take Weaver deep once or twice here. Weaver is considered to be an ace by almost everyone because he’s consistently won for years. However, we’re here to tell you that he has defied logic for an extended period of time and his charmed life could come crashing down in a big way at any time. Trusting him on the road as the chalk is a risk we’re not willing to take.
Chicago @ DETROIT
Chicago +152 over DETROIT
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.04)
The White Sox are hitting .281 over the past 15 games which ranks third in the majors behind the Rockies and Blue Jays. They now get a crack at Anibal Sanchez. With so much attention being given to Justin Verlander's recent struggles, Sanchez’s troubles have gone pretty much unnoticed and we’ll attempt to take advantage. Despite posting a worthy follow-up to 2013's career-best numbers, you may not have noticed a new wart in Sanchez's game. Sanchez is having punch-out problems. Sanchez has seen a marked drop in strikeout rate since April - 9.4 K’s/9, followed by a month to month count of 7.5, 5.8 and finally 1.6, which is a sharp contrast to '13's double-digit K-rate and 13% swing and miss rate. Despite the huge drop off, his ERA remains sterling thanks to a lucky hit% and a 3% hr/f% that's sure to correct. A 44%/23% dominant start/disaster start split confirms that he hasn't been the same pitcher this season. Over his last 32 innings, Sanchez has whiffed just 17 batters and has posted a 1.41 WHIP and 5.32 ERA. Sanchez missed nearly a month between April and May with a bad blister on his middle finger, and seeing as his activation from the DL corresponds with the sharp strikeout rate drop, it's possible it hasn't fully healed or is affecting his grip in some way. If that's not the case, however, Sanchez is in for a rude awakening in the second half when the luck factors suppressing his 4.40 xERA begin to correct. Selling high might not be a bad idea.
Jose Quintana made his debut in May of 2012 with the White Sox, who were in need of staff depth for a double-header. At the time, he had logged just six starts at Double-A. With just an average fastball (86-91), lack of a swing-and miss curve, and a raw change-up, Quintana’s limited projection was based mainly on his pitchability. Already 23 at that time, Quintana was in his third organization and 2012 was his first season above High-A ball. After a relief debut and demotion back to Double-A, he was recalled later that month and ended up with 22 starts with the South Side in 2012. He ended the season with a sub-4.00 ERA, though his middling skills, including a weak strikeout rate, seemed to confirm his back-of-rotation expectation. He became rotation fixture in 2013, however, and improved his peripherals to the point where Quintana became interesting. Though his first 21 starts of 2014 Quintana’s skills are bordering on elite. He’s maintained good control; not exceptional but plenty good enough. Importantly, Quintana is piling up the strikeouts at a rate much better than his minor-league 6.7 K’s/9 from 2012. Though he’s had some hr/f help in 2014, hit and strand rates are within the acceptable range. His xERA mark also clearly shows he’s maintained his skills. In addition to his strikeout spike since July of 2013, Quintana has also benefitted from a big jump in ground balls in 2014. One other important difference is his platoon splits in which he’s been just as good against both RH and LH hitters. Quintana obviously is bringing more to the table than what his early scouting reports envisioned. He’s much more well-rounded and consistent than just about any “non-ace” in the game. His adjustments in 2013’s second half and in 2014 have brought more strikeouts (118 in 131 innings this year and 35 over his past 34 frames) and groundballs and overall better command. Plus, he’s got intangibles on his side. Quintana is a strike-thrower, works quickly, has a durable frame (6-1, 220), has shown he can evolve. His pitching coach Don Cooper has as high of a reputation as any pitching coach in the game, and on a team with Chris Sale, Quintana is not expected to lead the staff. Yet in the market, Quintana is still undervalued. He’s grown into a solid #2 starter and his peripherals suggest that his current success is sustainable. In fact, there may even be some more upside as he continues to learn how to pitch and succeed in the big leagues. Perhaps his adjustment cycle is only beginning. This kid can pitch and offers up tremendous value in this range against a Detroit team that has scored just two runs over its past three games, all losses.
Pittsburgh @ SAN FRANCISCO
Pittsburgh +109 over SAN FRANCISCO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)
Tim Hudson owns the third-lowest hit rate in the NL with runners on base. His 19% H% in that situation combined with a 0% hr/f with runners on has fueled his surface stats (2.65 ERA, 1.13 WHIP). Hudson's continued combination of command and groundballs will still give him value but as the chalk pitching for a struggling offense, the value on him diminishes greatly. At age 38, his skills are good but NOT this good so an ERA correction in the second half is forthcoming.
The Pirates took the opener last night by a score of 5-0. The Giants have now lost five in a row while scoring a combined five runs over those five games. Ouch. Pressing at the dish, San Fran now has to face Francisco Liriano. Liriano has just four wins in 17 starts, which makes him an undervalued chucker. All he’s done is rendered RH batters helpless, conquered gopheritis and has notched a career-best swing and miss rate of 14%. History says it all; terrific strikeout rate (93 K’s in 88 frames this year) with volatile control but with the Giants pressing at the plate you can be sure they’ll be swinging at plenty of pitches outside the zone. Furthermore, Liriano’s groundball rate of 52% is also the highest mark of his career so while the wins have been difficult to come by, his skills say he’s in for a big second half and this is a great time to be taking back a tag against the Giants.
MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
The matchup between the Rockies (43-62) and Cubs (43-61) at Wrigley Field tonight is definitely at the bottom of the 'most important games of the day' list, but it's at the top of the best value list for bettors because Jorge De La Rosa is going against Edwin Jackson.
Both teams are battling for the worst record in the NL -- the Rockies are winning that battle by a half-game -- and if they keep things up they'll soon catch the Rangers (42-64) for baseball's worst record. Neither of these teams are going anywhere, but the game is still on the board and despite the Rockies losing their last seven games on the road after a 4-1 loss to the Cubs last night, they are attractive tonight at pick 'em (-105).
Even with the top hitter in baseball, Troy Tulowitzki (.340), being placed on the 15-day disabled list recently, the Rockies are still a play because of De La Rosa (11-6, 4.19 ERA), who has gone 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA over his last six outings. His name has been popping up in trade discussions among several contending teams and this could be his last start for Colorado for the soon to be free agent.
De La Rosa is a key component to making a wager on the Rockies today, but he's only half of the reason. The other half is Edwin Jackson (5-11, 5.76), who has been consistently bad going 0-4 with a 7.47 ERA since his last win on June 20. The Cubs are trying to deal Jackson to a contending team, but it's a hard sell. Jackson doesn't make any team better and he's got a fat contract which isn't attractive either.
If wagering on the Rockies today, be sure to list De La Rosa because there's a chance he could even be traded before he pitches, and you definitely don't want the wager if De La Rosa doesn't go.
Tuesday selections:
Rockies (De La Rosa) -105 at Cubs
Mariners (Iwakuma) -103 at Indians
Blue Jays (Stroman) -108 at Red Sox
By: Micah Roberts
The matchup between the Rockies (43-62) and Cubs (43-61) at Wrigley Field tonight is definitely at the bottom of the 'most important games of the day' list, but it's at the top of the best value list for bettors because Jorge De La Rosa is going against Edwin Jackson.
Both teams are battling for the worst record in the NL -- the Rockies are winning that battle by a half-game -- and if they keep things up they'll soon catch the Rangers (42-64) for baseball's worst record. Neither of these teams are going anywhere, but the game is still on the board and despite the Rockies losing their last seven games on the road after a 4-1 loss to the Cubs last night, they are attractive tonight at pick 'em (-105).
Even with the top hitter in baseball, Troy Tulowitzki (.340), being placed on the 15-day disabled list recently, the Rockies are still a play because of De La Rosa (11-6, 4.19 ERA), who has gone 5-0 with a 3.05 ERA over his last six outings. His name has been popping up in trade discussions among several contending teams and this could be his last start for Colorado for the soon to be free agent.
De La Rosa is a key component to making a wager on the Rockies today, but he's only half of the reason. The other half is Edwin Jackson (5-11, 5.76), who has been consistently bad going 0-4 with a 7.47 ERA since his last win on June 20. The Cubs are trying to deal Jackson to a contending team, but it's a hard sell. Jackson doesn't make any team better and he's got a fat contract which isn't attractive either.
If wagering on the Rockies today, be sure to list De La Rosa because there's a chance he could even be traded before he pitches, and you definitely don't want the wager if De La Rosa doesn't go.
Tuesday selections:
Rockies (De La Rosa) -105 at Cubs
Mariners (Iwakuma) -103 at Indians
Blue Jays (Stroman) -108 at Red Sox
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY
The Reds are 12-0 since May 30, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $1200.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Jered Weaver starts the Angels are 17-0 since September 10, 2006 as a favorite vs a team that lost their starter’s last three starts for a net profit of $1700.
CHOICE TREND:
The Indians are 0-12 since July 05, 2011 as a dog after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base individually and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Jorge De La Rosa starts the Rockies are 10-0 since May 15, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1054.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY
The Reds are 12-0 since May 30, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which their starter pitched at least 8 innings for a net profit of $1200.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Jered Weaver starts the Angels are 17-0 since September 10, 2006 as a favorite vs a team that lost their starter’s last three starts for a net profit of $1700.
CHOICE TREND:
The Indians are 0-12 since July 05, 2011 as a dog after a win in which their opponent left fewer than 10 men on base individually and it is not the last game of a series for a net profit of $1200 when playing against.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Jorge De La Rosa starts the Rockies are 10-0 since May 15, 2009 within 20 cents of pickem after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $1054.
Sleepyj
Total of The Day - Play Dodgers/Braves Under 7
Harang has lost his last two starts. He did pitch great in those losses. Run support for Harang has been very low. Beckett on the other hand got his rear end handed to him last time out. I expect him to have a great comeback game here. Atlanta was at home for a big home stand...Now they set sail for the far west. Atlanta is coming of a win at home, they may sleep through this one tomorrow. Dodgers have been hitting the ball very well as of late and get themselves a much needed rest day. They may be slow coming out of the gate as well. I think pitching will rule the game tomorrow.
Total of The Day - Play Dodgers/Braves Under 7
Harang has lost his last two starts. He did pitch great in those losses. Run support for Harang has been very low. Beckett on the other hand got his rear end handed to him last time out. I expect him to have a great comeback game here. Atlanta was at home for a big home stand...Now they set sail for the far west. Atlanta is coming of a win at home, they may sleep through this one tomorrow. Dodgers have been hitting the ball very well as of late and get themselves a much needed rest day. They may be slow coming out of the gate as well. I think pitching will rule the game tomorrow.
Topshelfpicks
Raider
Colorado/Chicago Cubs Under I have not seen the actual number here yet, but I am guessing it will come out at 8.5. Edwin Jackson for the Cubs is normally a gas can throwing more gas on the fire, but Colorado's high powered offense is more like a pee wee offense on the road. Throw in some key injuries for the Rockies and I think it will be hard for the Rocks to muster much offense. And Jorge DeLaRosa (11-6, 4.19 ERA) goes for the Rockies and he has been one of the few bright spots for the Rocks this season. Put that up against the low powered Cubs offense, and I see a 4-3 kind of game. I think this will be one very ugly game, with just enough futile offense to drive a purist batty. I definitely do not see a total that comes out at 7 or lower (which is where I think this game ends up), so the Under is the safe play here.
Leans
New York Yankees ML (-155) at Texas
Philadelphia/New York Mets Under 7
Raider
Colorado/Chicago Cubs Under I have not seen the actual number here yet, but I am guessing it will come out at 8.5. Edwin Jackson for the Cubs is normally a gas can throwing more gas on the fire, but Colorado's high powered offense is more like a pee wee offense on the road. Throw in some key injuries for the Rockies and I think it will be hard for the Rocks to muster much offense. And Jorge DeLaRosa (11-6, 4.19 ERA) goes for the Rockies and he has been one of the few bright spots for the Rocks this season. Put that up against the low powered Cubs offense, and I see a 4-3 kind of game. I think this will be one very ugly game, with just enough futile offense to drive a purist batty. I definitely do not see a total that comes out at 7 or lower (which is where I think this game ends up), so the Under is the safe play here.
Leans
New York Yankees ML (-155) at Texas
Philadelphia/New York Mets Under 7
Marc Lawrence
MLB
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles Jul 29 2014 7:05PM
Los Angeles Angels w/Weaver vs Tillman
Edges - Angels: Weaver 7-0 with 2,68 ERA last seven team starts, and 4-1 versus A.L. East team starts this season, and 30 strikeouts and 6 walks last six starts. Orioles: Tillman 0-3 last three team starts. With Weaver an eye-popping 20-3 his last twenty-three team starts during July, we recommend a 1-unit play on the L.A. Angels. Thank you and good luck as always.
MLB
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles Jul 29 2014 7:05PM
Los Angeles Angels w/Weaver vs Tillman
Edges - Angels: Weaver 7-0 with 2,68 ERA last seven team starts, and 4-1 versus A.L. East team starts this season, and 30 strikeouts and 6 walks last six starts. Orioles: Tillman 0-3 last three team starts. With Weaver an eye-popping 20-3 his last twenty-three team starts during July, we recommend a 1-unit play on the L.A. Angels. Thank you and good luck as always.
