STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
TUESDAY, JULY 29th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
_______________________________________
***** Tuesday, 7/29/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________
MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #18
•Red Sox Have No Intentions Of Trading Uehara: While Red Sox pitchers from Jon Lester to Andrew Miller find themselves in the middle of trade rumors, it appears that another potential free agent pitcher will be staying put. There's been little talk about the Sox entertaining offers for closer Koji Uehara -- and there's a reason for that. "He's the easiest to retain," said a baseball source. Translation: The Sox are apparently intending to make Uehara a qualifying offer, which he'll likely accept and return for a one-year deal in 2015. The qualifying offer hasn't been established, but it's expected to be in the neighborhood of $15 million, an increase over last year's figure of $14.1 million.
The $15 million would be considered an overpay for Uehara, but the Red Sox can afford to do so. The only closer in history who's had an average annual value (AAV) of $15 million is Mariano Rivera, who had a $15 million AAV on his final two deals with the Yankees. If the Sox dealt Uehara, there would be nothing to stop them from attempting to re-sign him after the season, as they might do in the case of a trade involving either Miller or Lester. But they would lose the mechanism of the qualifying offer and have to compete with other teams, some of whom might be willing to give him more than a year.
If the Sox hold onto Uehara and he's offered $15 million for next season, it's inconceivable that he would turn that down. Uehara will turn 40 next April, but has maintained his level of dominance this year, his second with the Red Sox. Before Monday's game, Uehara was 21-for- 23 in save opportunities with a 1.51 ERA and a WHIP of 0.755. In the last week, the Padres sent Huston Street to the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers dealt Joakim Soria the Detroit Tigers. The San Francisco Giants and Baltimore Orioles are among the handful of contending teams looking to upgrade their closers.
•DeGrom Wins Award; Won't Be Skipped Soon: Jacob DeGrom has been named National League Co-Player of the Week, sharing the honor with Miami Marlins closer Steve Cishek. And given the rookie's recent success, Sandy Alderson said the Mets have no plans to slow him down right now, even with an approaching innings cap. In road starts last week at Seattle and Milwaukee, DeGrom allowed one run in 13 1/3 innings. He became the first Mets rookie pitcher to win the NL Player of the Week Award since Octavio Dotel in 1999. As for the inning cap, Alderson previously had identified it as roughly 185 for the season. Counting his 2014 work in the minors, DeGrom has 59 2/3 innings or so remaining this year.
If he pitched every five games for the rest of the season, that would mean he would have 11 starts remaining. So clearly something will have to give if DeGrom is going to continue going seven innings an outing. Because of DeGrom’s success, along with the Mets’ solid play of late, team officials essentially will kick the decision down the road. Alderson said the two options are letting DeGrom go to the innings cap and then shut him down, or find a rotation turn later in the season to skip the rookie “if we find the right spot to do it.” Added the GM: “So I think we have a couple of different ways of approaching that. Now, I don’t think we want to interrupt the flow that he has going, the success he’s had.”
•Minor Leaguer Delmonico Gets 50-Game Ban: Milwaukee Brewers minor league third baseman Nick Delmonico has received a 50-game suspension without pay after testing positive for an amphetamine. The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball announced the ban on Monday in violation of the Minor League Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. The suspension of Delmonico, who is currently on the roster of Class A Brevard County of the Florida State League, is effective immediately. The 22-year-old Delmonico was acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in 2013 in the Francisco Rodriguez trade. He was hitting .262 with four home runs and 15 RBIs.
•Dodgers Acquire INF Barney From Cubs: The Los Angeles Dodgers acquired infielder Darwin Barney from the Chicago Cubs, according to multiple reports Monday afternoon. Barney, 28, was designated for assignment last week, giving the Cubs 10 days to trade, release or waive him. Barney is hitting .230 with two home runs and 16 RBIs in 72 games and 204 at-bats this season. The Chicago Tribune reported that the Cubs would receive a minor league player.
•Alfonso Soriano Shooting For Possible 2015 Return: Seven-time All-Star Alfonso Soriano, released by the Yankees earlier this month, has told friends he expects to take the rest of this season off, then consider next season whether to return to play in the majors. Soriano hit 34 home runs splitting time between the Cubs and Yankees in 2013, so his departure after a slow start this year seemed rather abrupt. This is the final year of Soriano's $136 million, eight-year deal he signed with the Cubs before the 2007 season.
A few teams have talked to Soriano since the Yankees designated him for assignment July 4, but after being away for nearly four weeks he has told friends he believes he would need time to get into playing shape, making next year seem more realistic. Soriano, 38, has 412 career home runs. Soriano also isn't sure he's cut out to be a part-time player, as he was this year with the Yankees. He posted an .850 OPS last year and helped keep the Yankees in the playoff race longer than most expected, but he struggled this year as he became a sometime starter, hitting just six homers and posting a .221 batting average and .611 OPS in 67 games with the Yankees.
•Derek Jeter Collects 3,420th Hit, Moves Into Seventh All-Time: Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter collected three hits in his first three at-bats Monday night against the Rangers in Arlington, pushing his career total to 3,420, which meant that he tied and later passed the great Carl Yastrzemski on the career hit list and now sits in seventh all-time. Barring a season-ending injury, Jeter seems a safe bet to pass Honus Wagner (3430). Grabbing 95 more hits in the final 57 games of the season isn't happening, though, so Tris Speaker's 3515 hits is pretty well out of reach. That means Jeter is a pretty sure bet to finish with the sixth-most hits in the history of baseball.
•Royals Send Valencia To Blue Jays For Hendriks, Kratz: This is hardly the blockbuster fans of either team were hoping for, but it's a trade nonetheless. The Kansas City Royals have acquired catcher Eric Kratz and pitcher Liam Hendriks from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for infielder Danny Valencia, the Royals have officially announced. It's a move that means depth for each club. The Blue Jays are still without Brett Lawrie and Edwin Encarnacion. The acquisition of Valencia, who has been primarily a third baseman, probably means they'll limit the number of times Juan Francisco is used at third and instead slot him either at first base or DH. Valencia could also be used at second base or, of course, as a bench piece.
Valencia, 29, is hitting .282/.328/.382 (96 OPS+) with five doubles, two homers and 11 RBI in 119 plate appearances this season. He's a career .265/.304/.409 hitter. Hendriks, 25, has made 33 career appearances in the majors, 31 of which were starts. He's 3-13 with a 6.06 ERA. This season, he made just three starts for the Blue Jays, going 1-0 with a 6.08 ERA. In 18 Triple-A appearances (16 starts), he's 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 91 strikeouts against only seven walks in 108 1/3 innings. Kratz, 34, hit .198/.226/.346 with three homers and 10 RBI in 84 plate appearances for the Blue Jays this season. In 100 plate appearances for Triple-A Buffalo, he hit .299/.354/.517 with three homers and 17 RBI. With All-Star Salvador Perez the starter, Kratz is obviously nothing more than a backup.
_________________________________________
NFL Subscription Sale - Early Bird Discounts!
Look no further than our Experts here at StatSystemsSports.net when it comes to National Football League betting this season, that’s if you don’t mind winning loads of cold hard cash of course. Don’t wait another minute, pick right back up where we left off last year - Join today!
Have a look at some of these outstanding 2013-14 NFL records (including playoffs):
•Stan 'The Man: 63W 38L (62% wins) +$18,536
•Jude Ravo: 52W 32L (62% wins) +$17,287
•Ryan Taylor: 47W 27L (64% wins) +$16,422
•Larry Hertner: 49W 30L (62% wins) +$13,264
•James Vogel: 39W 23L (63% wins) +$12,853
•William Stillman: 39W 25L (61% wins) +$9,850
Let our Experts guide you this season, what are you waiting for? Join today!
•Early Bird Pricing (limited time only - ends August 3rd):
•Pre-Season Package: only $199.00 ($299.00 regular price)
•Pre-Season + Regular Season: only $1299.00 ($1599.00 regular price)
Don’t miss out on these huge savings, call us today @ 570-828-4091 and take advantage of the early bird pricing while it lasts - ends August 3rd.
"You'll be real glad you did" - Stan!
_____________________________
Betting Notes - Tuesday
National League
•Diamondbacks-Reds - 7:10 PM
--Cahill is 0-5, 9.79 in six starts this season.
--Leake is 0-2, 5.68 in his last three starts.
--Arizona lost nine of its last fourteen road games.
--Reds lost nine of their last ten games.
--Five of six Cahill starts went over the total.
•Nationals-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Strasburg is 0-2, 4.32 in his last four starts.
--Alvarez is 1-2, 5.74 in his last three starts.
--Washington won eight of its last twelve games.
--Marlins won eight of their last nine games.
--Eight of last eleven Miami home games went over.
•Phillies-Mets - 7:10 PM
--Hamels is 3-0, 2.20 in his last four starts.
--Gee is 0-2, 9.00 in his last couple starts.
--Phillies lost three of their last four road games.
--Mets won eight of their last nine home games.
--Ten of last thirteen games at Citi Field went over the total.
•Rockies-Cubs - 8:05 PM
--De La Rosa is 5-0, 3.52 in his last six starts.
--Jackson is 0-4, 7.47 in his last six starts.
--Colorado lost 13 of is last 14 road games.
--Cubs lost nine of their last twelve games overall.
--Over is 8-2 in last ten Jackson starts.
•Cardinals-Padres - 10:10 PM
--Lynn is 3-1, 2.10 in his last four starts.
--Ross is 3-2, 1.03 in his last five starts.
--St Louis won six of its last eight road games.
--Padres lost their last three games, scoring six runs.
--Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Cardinal road games.
•Braves-Dodgers - 10:10 PM
--Harang is 4-0, 2.41 in his last six starts.
--Beckett is 1-1, 5.93 in his last three starts.
--Atlanta won its last three games, allowing six runs.
--Dodgers won 12 of its last 17 home games.
--Five of last six Harang starts stayed under total.
•Pirates-Giants - 10:15 PM
--Liriano is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
--Hudson is 1-3, 3.31 in his last five starts.
--Pittsburgh lost eight of its last twelve road games.
--Giants lost 20 of their last 26 home games.
--Six of seven Liriano road starts stayed under total.
American League
•Angels-Orioles - 7:05 PM
--Angels won last seven Weaver starts (4-0, 2.68).
--Tillman is 0-1, 2.73 in his last four starts.
--Angels won four of their last five games.
--Baltimore won five of its last seven games.
--Ten of last thirteen Angel games stayed under total.
•Mariners-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Iwakuma is 3-1, 2.27 in his last five starts.
--Bauer is 2-1, 3.16 in his last four starts.
--Mariners lost five of their last six games, scoring 10 runs.
--Cleveland lost six of its last eight games.
--Ten of last eleven Seattle games stayed under the total.
•White Sox-Tigers - 7:05 PM
--Quintana is 2-0, 1.55 in his last six starts.
--Sanchez is 2-2, 5.63 in his last five starts.
--White Sox won three of their last four games.
--Detroit lost seven of its last eleven games.
--Last seven Quintana starts stayed under total; five of last six Sanchez starts went over.
•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Stroman is 3-0, 2.06 in his last six starts, but is 0-1, 5.02 in three road starts.
--De La Rosa is 1-1, 6.19 in his last three starts.
--Blue Jays won eight of their last ten games.
--Red Sox lost six of their last seven games.
--Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Stroman starts.
•Yankees-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--McCarthy is 2-0, 1.50 in his last two starts.
--Rangers lost last seven Martinez starts (0-5, 8.18).
--New York lost four of its last five road games.
--Rangers lost 31 of their last 38 games overall.
--Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texas games.
•Twins-Royals - 8:10 PM
--Gibson is 0-3, 10.13 in his last three starts.
--Shields is 1-1, 2.36 in his last four starts.
--Minnesota lost seven of last 10 games, but is 5-1 in last six on road.
--Royals won five of their last six games.
--Seven of last nine Minnesota games stayed under.
•Athletics-Astros - 8:10 PM
--Samardzija is 2-1, 2.70 in his four starts for Oakland.
--Feldman is 0-3, 8.15 in his last three starts.
--Oakland won four of their last six games.
--Astros lost seven of last nine home games.
--Over is 15-8 in last 23 Houston games.
Interleague
•Brewers-Rays - 7:10 PM
--Garza is 3-2, 3.41 in his last five starts.
--Cobb is 4-0, 3.38 in his last five starts.
--Milwaukee lost seven of last nine road games.
--Tampa Bay won ten of its last eleven games
--Seven of last eight Milwaukee games stayed under.
•Teams' Record When This Starting Pitcher Starts
-- Cahill 1-5; Leake 8-13
-- Strasburg 11-11; Alvarez 14-7
-- Hamels 8-10; Gee 5-6
-- De La Rosa 13-7; Jackson 6-15
-- Lynn 13-8; Ross 10-12
-- Harang 11-9; Beckett 8-10
-- Liriano 9-8; Hudson 12-7
-- Weaver 14-8; Tillman 13-9
-- Iwakuma 9-7; Bauer 7-7
-- Quintana 8-13; Sanchez 10-8
-- Stroman 5-5; De La Rosa 4-4
-- McCarthy 4-14/3-0; Martinez 4-8
-- Samardzija 3-14/3-1; Feldman 6-12
-- Gibson 8-11; Shields 13-9
-- Garza 11-10; Cobb 7-7
•Umpires Trends
-- Az-Cin-- Home team won last five Guccione games.
-- Wsh-Mia-- Underdogs are 6-5 in last 11 Reyburn games.
-- Phil-NY-- 11 of 14 Basner games went over the total.
-- Col-Chi- Home side won six of last seven Cuzzi games.
-- Pitt-SF-- Underdogs won five of last eight Knight games.
-- Tor-Bos-- Over is 8-2-1 in Woodring games this year.
-- NY-Tex-- 10 of last 15 Kulpa games stayed under total.
-- A's-Hst-- Under is 14-5-1 in Eddings games this season.
-- Mil-TB-- 12 of last 15 BWelke games stayed under total.
•Incredible Stat of the Day
Angels Ace Jered Weaver is 14-3 in Los Angeles' team starts against the money line (82.3%) versus an American League team with an on base percentage .330 or worse this season. The right-hander will look to continue his consistent play of late as he leads Los Angeles into Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles Tuesday evening. Weaver has allowed exactly two runs in each of his last four appearances and is riding a four-game Under streak dating back to early July.
Diamond Trends - Tuesday
•SAN FRANCISCO is 16-2 (+15.7 Units) against the money line versus teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 5.6, OPPONENT 2.8.
•SEATTLE is 42-14 UNDER (+26.8 Units) with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.200 the last 10 games this season.
The average score was SEATTLE 3.2, OPPONENT 3.0.
•LA ANGELS are 10-0 (+11.1 Units) against the run line after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base this season.
The average score was LA ANGELS 6.7, OPPONENT 2.6.
•JORGE DE LA ROSA is 20-6 (+14.3 Units) against the money line versus teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DE LA ROSA 5.1, OPPONENT 3.5.
•JERED WEAVER is 39-12 UNDER (+25.6 Units) versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season since 1997.
The average score was WEAVER 3.6, OPPONENT 3.1.
•CHRIS TILLMAN is 23-6 (+19.3 Units) against the run line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TILLMAN 5.0, OPPONENT 3.3.
Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (American League) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better on the season-AL.
(86-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.7%, +52.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -188.6
The average score in these games was: Team 5.3, Opponent 2.9 (Average run differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (17-7, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-13, +19.9 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (158-59, +47.7 units).
•Play Against - Road teams against a run line. (+1.5, -130) to (-1.5, +160) (SEATTLE) - poor American League hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts.
(43-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.9%, +37.4 units. Rating = 5*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (40-19 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average run line posted in these games was: Team favored by 0.2, money line price: +124
The average score in these games was: Team 5.1, Opponent 3.6 (Average run differential = +1.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the run line by 1 or more runs was 27 (45.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1, +3.6 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-11, +27.8 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (51-30, +30 units).
•Play Over - All teams where the total is 7 or less (SAN DIEGO) - horrible offensive team - scoring <=3.3 runs/game on the season (National League) against opponent terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL).
(56-19 since 1997.) (74.7%, +37.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 6.7, Money Line=+100.7
The average score in these games was: Team 4.2, Opponent 4.4 (Total runs scored = 8.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 1 or more runs was 41 (51.9% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (11-4, +7.5 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-14, +30.4 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (53-16, +37.4 units).
___________________________________________
