DAVID MALINSKY
4* TORONTO -1.5 -105 over BALTIMORE
It was a sin of omission to not have backed the Blue Jays last night, particularly since we had been riding Brandon Morrow often. But that double-header in Detroit on Sunday created too many bullpen issues for us to pull the trigger. Now there is no such obstacle, so we are in play.
There isn’t much left in the Kevin Milwood tank, with his 2-9/5.84 showing a lot of validity because of the consistency of the Home/Away splits (1-4/5.86 and 1-5/5.82). He has been tagged for 21 HR’s in just 114 frames, which creates an awful matchup against a team that has bashed 21 more than any other in the Majors. The matchup problems have already shown – the Blue Jays have five HR’s against him in 13.2 IP over two appearances this season. And pitching to any kind of contact is a problem with a defense behind him that rates dead last in the A.L. on our best ratings, and is particularly vulnerable on the faster surface in the Rogers Centre, where the Orioles have been out-scored 25-8 in going 0-4 so far this season.
Ricky Romero ably takes care of the other part of this equation. He has held Baltimore to one earned run over 16 IP this season, including a complete-game, and a full-season 2.16 from this mound speaks well of his confidence level here. His overall numbers fell a bit before the break when he appeared tired in loss to the Yankees and Red Sox, but after a full week off has come back with a pair of solid starts, working a full seven IP each time, and getting 18 ground ball outs. This time the bullpen is also set up well, so the limited amount needed from that group should be solid.