SPORTS WAGERS
MLB
WASHINGTON +1.03 over Atlanta
Not sure what Livan Hernandez is eating these days but whatever it is, it’s working. The guy has pitched into the seventh inning in all four starts and has allowed an incredible three runs in 31 frames. His numbers are actually sick and that includes a BAA of .176 and an ERA of 0.87. Of course all that could implode at any time but perhaps he found something he didn’t have before. Or maybe not. Hernandez’s fortunes will turn against him and when they do, it could last for a while. He only has 10 k’s in 31 frames and has an unsustainable strand rate of 96%. Thing is, the Braves are a very beatable team and Hernandez’s fortunes could last one more game for sure. The Braves swept the Astros but so what. The Astros are just a pathetic team and that’s an understatement. Prior to that the Braves had dropped nine in a row. In addition, Kenshin Kawakami is the Braves worst starter and it’s not close. Kawakami is 0-4 with an ERA of 5.48. In his last game against the Cards covering 4.1 innings he allowed five runs (four earned) on five hits and four walks. He hit three batters and had two wild pitches. He’s also walked eight batters while striking out just 10 and even at his best he’s no better than Livan Hernandez. So, we get the home squad, the way hotter pitcher, a tag and we also get the better offense and we get all this because the Nats still remain the most undervalued team in baseball. Play: Washington +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Arizona +1.28 over HOUSTON
Did you know that Roy Oswalt was drafted in the 23rd round and was the 684th pick that year? That was the last good thing the Astros did so anytime this host is favored, whether Oswalt is going or not, the dog is the play. In order to win you have to score and the Astros keep losing and they keep coming up lame at the plate. Last night they had a chance to blow the game wide open in the first two innings against an erratic looking first-time starter named Cesar Valdez. They left five men on in the first two frames and scored just one time. Subsequently they lost 9-1 for its seventh loss in a row. A month into the season and they’re out of it already. Thus far, they’ve drawn 47 walks. The next closest team has drawn 72. They’ve scored a total of 73 runs, which is an astonishing 80 runs less than the D-Backs. Ian Kennedy has been very sharp in his last two games against the Cubbies and Phillies. He picked up the victory against Chicago and pitched much better than the box score suggests. An eighth-inning grand slam from Kosuke Fukudome was definitely aided by the winds at Wrigley Field and Kennedy may have been out of the game after the seventh if the D-Backs weren't carrying a 13-1 lead at that time. He’s gone eight full in his last two games and that includes a four-hit gem against Philly. Kennedy has 27 k’s in 30 frames while walking just eight and the Astros have never seen a pitch they didn’t like. They swing - and usually miss - at everything. The D-Backs score two or more here and they’re very likely to win because the Astros scoring three is like asking Floyd Mayweather to keep his mouth shut. Play: Arizona +1.28 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto –1½ +1.29 over CLEVELAND
The Jays bats are warming up big time and you can see Adam Lind and Aaron Hill starting to find their groove. These two Sliver-Slugger award winners are dangerous as hell and they’re starting to come around. They Jays are hitting the ball hard and now lead the league in bombs with 41. They Jays have now won four of its last five and in those four wins they’ve scored 30 runs. Ricky Romero is another great, young Blue Jay pitcher. He’s allowed just 21 hits in 36 innings for a BAA of 1.68 and a WHIP of 0.94. Romero has terrific stuff, outstanding command and he’s also a southpaw, which bodes well here against the light hitting Indians. Cleveland has struggled to score, ranking near the bottom of most AL hitting categories and has been dominated by opposing southpaws, with a lowly .210 BA, .286 SLG, and .574 OPS. Jake Westbrook has struggled in his return from 2008 Tommy John-surgery. In three of his five starts he’s struck out two batters or less. He has a BAA of .290, a WHIP of 1.55 and an ERA of 5.53. Guys like Westbrook and Gil Meche of the Royals are perfect examples why smart GM’s do not sign pitchers to big, long term contracts. Meche is making 12M this season and Westbrook is making 11M. Taking home a paycheck like that is more added pressure for Westbrook to bring it. Even in his best days, Westbrook was never that great but those days are long gone. Man, 11 million sure doesn’t buy you what it used to. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.29 (Risking 2 units).
NHL
DETROIT -½ +1.11 over San Jose
It’s not that the Sharks have been playing bad because they have not been. However, they’ve had every call go its way and they scored key goals in both games with a 5 on 3 two-man advantage. Now the series switches to Detroit and the Sharks will not get the benefit of those calls. The crowds influence the refs and that’s why the Sharkies are up 2-0. In game two, Detroit took 10 minors (five in the third period alone) while the Sharks took four. The Red Wings scored on three of its first nine shots and every time they had momentum it was nullified by a penalty. This series is far from over and while the Red Wings have to win four of five games to advance, it has to start somewhere. Five on five, there is no way you can make an argument that the Sharks have been the better squad and there’s just no way the Red Wings get the short end of the stick in terms of penalties called for this one. Play: Detroit -½ +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
