OffshoreInsiders.com handicapper Matt Rivers says go with the LA Lakers at home to the Utah Jazz. Here is why:
I played the Lakers in game one and came up a nose short at the wire. The Jazz are good, really good, as Williams and Boozer are superstars and can lead their team to a victory pretty much anywhere and at anytime. But Utah has a huge disadvantage in the paint as they are lacking a ton of size in this matchup, with or without Kirilenko, and should get beaten up down low today.
Gasol, Bynum and Odom have the upside to be monsters and even though they don't always come to play are going to at least be formidable in the least. Then you have Kobe who took over game one late and should be primed and focused once again here.
The Jazz are going to compete but they are also not the same team outside of Mormon country. These guys always play great on their home floor and are never able to get it close to that level on the road. I was very impressed with the effort in that last game as the Lakers shot the lights out early and Utah stayed within range and then actually took that lead in the fourth quarter. But I also can see a banged up Williams and yes the stud point guard is banged up, and his mates not play as well today and find themselves in the tough 0-2 hole in a double digit loss.
I have faded the Lakers a bunch this season including that last series because I loved the young and athletic fresh legs of Durant and Westbrook. I am not in the slightest going to say anything negative about Jerry Sloan squad as I backed them in almost the entire Denver series but I think the Lakers take care of business today with their many advantages and cover the half dozen or so in the end.
The pick: LA Lakers
I played the Lakers in game one and came up a nose short at the wire. The Jazz are good, really good, as Williams and Boozer are superstars and can lead their team to a victory pretty much anywhere and at anytime. But Utah has a huge disadvantage in the paint as they are lacking a ton of size in this matchup, with or without Kirilenko, and should get beaten up down low today.
Gasol, Bynum and Odom have the upside to be monsters and even though they don't always come to play are going to at least be formidable in the least. Then you have Kobe who took over game one late and should be primed and focused once again here.
The Jazz are going to compete but they are also not the same team outside of Mormon country. These guys always play great on their home floor and are never able to get it close to that level on the road. I was very impressed with the effort in that last game as the Lakers shot the lights out early and Utah stayed within range and then actually took that lead in the fourth quarter. But I also can see a banged up Williams and yes the stud point guard is banged up, and his mates not play as well today and find themselves in the tough 0-2 hole in a double digit loss.
I have faded the Lakers a bunch this season including that last series because I loved the young and athletic fresh legs of Durant and Westbrook. I am not in the slightest going to say anything negative about Jerry Sloan squad as I backed them in almost the entire Denver series but I think the Lakers take care of business today with their many advantages and cover the half dozen or so in the end.
The pick: LA Lakers
Tuesday MLB Play-GC
On Tuesday the Bonus Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays. Game 967 at 7:05 eastern. Cleveland fits a negative system here tonight. What we want to do is plays against certain home dogs off a home favored loss, if they had 2 or less hits and their opponent scored 5 or more runs on the road. Toronto has lefty Romero on the mound tonight. He has a fine 1.93 road era and takes On J.Westbrook tonight. Westbrook has a 5.53 era and faces a Toronto team tha is 10-4 as a road favorite in this range and has averaged nearly 6 runs per game over the past 7 games. The Indians have struggled vs Left handed pitchers scoring 3.4 runs per game. Look for the Blue Jays to take game two. On Tuesday I have a Double 90% NBA Playoff system side and 2 MLB Totals from a 94% system. We remain Piping hot going 3-0 last night,while cashing both NBA games as we are now on a 22-6 NBA Run. The Bases has also been very productive with another winner last night. For the Bonus Play take the Toronto Blue Jays. bol GC
On Tuesday the Bonus Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays. Game 967 at 7:05 eastern. Cleveland fits a negative system here tonight. What we want to do is plays against certain home dogs off a home favored loss, if they had 2 or less hits and their opponent scored 5 or more runs on the road. Toronto has lefty Romero on the mound tonight. He has a fine 1.93 road era and takes On J.Westbrook tonight. Westbrook has a 5.53 era and faces a Toronto team tha is 10-4 as a road favorite in this range and has averaged nearly 6 runs per game over the past 7 games. The Indians have struggled vs Left handed pitchers scoring 3.4 runs per game. Look for the Blue Jays to take game two. On Tuesday I have a Double 90% NBA Playoff system side and 2 MLB Totals from a 94% system. We remain Piping hot going 3-0 last night,while cashing both NBA games as we are now on a 22-6 NBA Run. The Bases has also been very productive with another winner last night. For the Bonus Play take the Toronto Blue Jays. bol GC
jeff benton tuesday
1-0 yesterday PLUS 15 dimes..overall, 29-36-3 MINUS 65 dimes.
Tuesday's Action 20 Dime: L.A. LAKERS
10 Dime: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ... NOTE: List Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals' starting pitcher. If Wainwright does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Lakers
I said it yesterday in my analysis on the Celtics, and I’ll say it again here with respect to the Lakers: nothing changes. Even though – like Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 – L.A. barely missed getting the spread-cover against the Jazz in their series opener, it doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers SHOULD have covered that number in Game 1. And to be getting L.A., which continues to have huge matchup edges against Utah, at a reduced price in Game 2 is a gift I’m not going to pass up.
Look, if you watched Game 1 you know I was spot-on with my analysis that the Jazz just cannot handle the Lakers’ size up front. Pau Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in the 104-99 win, while Andrew Bynum (eight points, 10 boards in less than 25 minutes of action) and Lamar Odom (nine points, 12 rebounds in 31 minutes) nearly had double-doubles, as L.A. had a 14-point lead at one point in the first half and was still up double-digits in the third quarter.
L.A.’s problem – and it’s been a problem the entire playoffs – has been its bench. The big lead evaporated when Gasol and Kobe Bryant (31 points) went to the sidelines. And beyond Odom, four other Lakers contributed just 13 points in 35 minutes of action, and when those four players were on the court, L.A. got outscored by 13 points. After the game, Gasol, Kobe and Lakers coach Phil Jackson pretty much called out the bench in the media and told them to step up. I expect a positive response to that challenge tonight.
I also expect Jackson and Bryant to make the necessary adjustments to at least slow down Jazz point guard Deron Williams (24 points, 8 assists in Game 1). You’re not going to stop Williams as he’s just too good of a player (and he’s been outstanding this entire postseason), but you can bet the All-Star will see some different looks tonight.
Finally, even though the Jazz got inside the number in Game 1, they still lost for the 19th time in the last 25 meetings with the Lakers. They’ve still lost nine of the last 12 playoff games to the Lakers. They’ve still lost 15 straight games in Los Angeles. And they’re still just 9-15-1 ATS during this 25-game stretch of games with the Lakers, including 4-11 ATS in the Staples Center.
What’s more, Sunday’s result was only the second time in those 19 losses to L.A. that the Jazz fell by fewer than seven points. And it was just the fourth time in those 19 contests that the Lakers failed to win by double digits.
One last thing: Do you know how many times in their 6-19 funk against Los Angeles that the Jazz covered the spread in back-to-back meetings? Twice. You know how many times they’ve covered in consecutive games in L.A. during this stretch? Never. In fact, you have to go back to the 2004-05 season for the last time Utah got the cash in back-to-back visits to Staples. And in the last two playoff meetings with the Jazz, the Lakers won Game 2 at home by near identical scores: 120-110 in 2008, 119-109 last year.
Big-time statement game from the world champs here. Lay the chalk and look for an easy double-digit win!
Cardinals
First off, let’s face facts: The Cardinals (18-8) are a better team the than the Phillies (14-11) right now. St. Louis is better on the road (8-5) than Philly is at home (5-5), and the Cardinals’ pitching (2.52 starters’ ERA; 2.74 bullpen ERA) is vastly superior to the Phillies’ (4.11 starters’ ERA; 4.46 bullpen ERA).
Tonight is another case of a massive pitching mismatch. Oh sure, the names on the backs of the jerseys – Wainwright and Hamels – suggest this is an even contest on the mound, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA; Hamels is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Wainwright has allowed 34 baserunners and one home run in 38 innings; Hamels has allowed 45 baserunners and seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings.
Wainwright has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts since last season, and even better than that, he’s had 24 quality starts in his last 25 games since the middle of last June, giving up two earned runs or fewer 22 times.
Hamels has just one quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound, and during this stretch, the lefty has given up at least four runs eight times and pitched less than six innings seven times.
The Cardinals have won 37 of Wainwright’s last 52 starts overall, 20 of his last 26 starts on the road and 15 of his last 18 against N.L. East teams. The Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels’ last seven starts at home.
Lastly, I look for Wainwright to have a LITTLE extra motivation tonight. That’s because after dominating the Phillies in three starts in 2007 (he went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA), he got knocked around the yard exactly one year ago by Philadelphia, giving up seven runs in six innings of a 10-7 home loss. It was Wainwright’s worst start of 2009, and you KNOW he hasn’t forgotten it.
Throw in the fact that Hamels has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his last five starts against St. Louis spanning 25 innings (5.04 ERA), and the Cardinals offer tremendous value tonight at this dirt-cheap price.
1-0 yesterday PLUS 15 dimes..overall, 29-36-3 MINUS 65 dimes.
Tuesday's Action 20 Dime: L.A. LAKERS
10 Dime: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS ... NOTE: List Adam Wainwright as the Cardinals' starting pitcher. If Wainwright does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Lakers
I said it yesterday in my analysis on the Celtics, and I’ll say it again here with respect to the Lakers: nothing changes. Even though – like Boston at Cleveland in Game 1 – L.A. barely missed getting the spread-cover against the Jazz in their series opener, it doesn’t change the fact that the Lakers SHOULD have covered that number in Game 1. And to be getting L.A., which continues to have huge matchup edges against Utah, at a reduced price in Game 2 is a gift I’m not going to pass up.
Look, if you watched Game 1 you know I was spot-on with my analysis that the Jazz just cannot handle the Lakers’ size up front. Pau Gasol had 25 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and five blocks in the 104-99 win, while Andrew Bynum (eight points, 10 boards in less than 25 minutes of action) and Lamar Odom (nine points, 12 rebounds in 31 minutes) nearly had double-doubles, as L.A. had a 14-point lead at one point in the first half and was still up double-digits in the third quarter.
L.A.’s problem – and it’s been a problem the entire playoffs – has been its bench. The big lead evaporated when Gasol and Kobe Bryant (31 points) went to the sidelines. And beyond Odom, four other Lakers contributed just 13 points in 35 minutes of action, and when those four players were on the court, L.A. got outscored by 13 points. After the game, Gasol, Kobe and Lakers coach Phil Jackson pretty much called out the bench in the media and told them to step up. I expect a positive response to that challenge tonight.
I also expect Jackson and Bryant to make the necessary adjustments to at least slow down Jazz point guard Deron Williams (24 points, 8 assists in Game 1). You’re not going to stop Williams as he’s just too good of a player (and he’s been outstanding this entire postseason), but you can bet the All-Star will see some different looks tonight.
Finally, even though the Jazz got inside the number in Game 1, they still lost for the 19th time in the last 25 meetings with the Lakers. They’ve still lost nine of the last 12 playoff games to the Lakers. They’ve still lost 15 straight games in Los Angeles. And they’re still just 9-15-1 ATS during this 25-game stretch of games with the Lakers, including 4-11 ATS in the Staples Center.
What’s more, Sunday’s result was only the second time in those 19 losses to L.A. that the Jazz fell by fewer than seven points. And it was just the fourth time in those 19 contests that the Lakers failed to win by double digits.
One last thing: Do you know how many times in their 6-19 funk against Los Angeles that the Jazz covered the spread in back-to-back meetings? Twice. You know how many times they’ve covered in consecutive games in L.A. during this stretch? Never. In fact, you have to go back to the 2004-05 season for the last time Utah got the cash in back-to-back visits to Staples. And in the last two playoff meetings with the Jazz, the Lakers won Game 2 at home by near identical scores: 120-110 in 2008, 119-109 last year.
Big-time statement game from the world champs here. Lay the chalk and look for an easy double-digit win!
Cardinals
First off, let’s face facts: The Cardinals (18-8) are a better team the than the Phillies (14-11) right now. St. Louis is better on the road (8-5) than Philly is at home (5-5), and the Cardinals’ pitching (2.52 starters’ ERA; 2.74 bullpen ERA) is vastly superior to the Phillies’ (4.11 starters’ ERA; 4.46 bullpen ERA).
Tonight is another case of a massive pitching mismatch. Oh sure, the names on the backs of the jerseys – Wainwright and Hamels – suggest this is an even contest on the mound, but the numbers suggest otherwise.
Wainwright is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA; Hamels is 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA. Wainwright has allowed 34 baserunners and one home run in 38 innings; Hamels has allowed 45 baserunners and seven home runs in 30 2/3 innings.
Wainwright has pitched at least six innings and allowed three earned runs or less in 11 straight starts since last season, and even better than that, he’s had 24 quality starts in his last 25 games since the middle of last June, giving up two earned runs or fewer 22 times.
Hamels has just one quality start in his last 12 trips to the mound, and during this stretch, the lefty has given up at least four runs eight times and pitched less than six innings seven times.
The Cardinals have won 37 of Wainwright’s last 52 starts overall, 20 of his last 26 starts on the road and 15 of his last 18 against N.L. East teams. The Phillies are 2-5 in Hamels’ last seven starts at home.
Lastly, I look for Wainwright to have a LITTLE extra motivation tonight. That’s because after dominating the Phillies in three starts in 2007 (he went 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA), he got knocked around the yard exactly one year ago by Philadelphia, giving up seven runs in six innings of a 10-7 home loss. It was Wainwright’s worst start of 2009, and you KNOW he hasn’t forgotten it.
Throw in the fact that Hamels has allowed 15 runs (14 earned) in his last five starts against St. Louis spanning 25 innings (5.04 ERA), and the Cardinals offer tremendous value tonight at this dirt-cheap price.
GREG SHAKER
MLB Total Tue, 05/04/10 - 7:05 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 951 ATL / 952 WAS Under 9 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals - Under 9 (Kawakami/Hernandez) -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 5/4/2010
MLB Money Line Tue, 05/04/10 - 7:05 PM ƒŠ
triple-dime bet 967 TOR (-119) BetUS vs 968 CLE
Analysis: MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians - Bluejays (Romero/Westbrook)(Best Bet) -119 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 5/4/2010
MLB Total Tue, 05/04/10 - 7:05 PM ƒŠ
double-dime bet 951 ATL / 952 WAS Under 9 BetUS
Analysis: MLB: Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals - Under 9 (Kawakami/Hernandez) -110 | Unit Value: 2
Game Date: 5/4/2010
MLB Money Line Tue, 05/04/10 - 7:05 PM ƒŠ
triple-dime bet 967 TOR (-119) BetUS vs 968 CLE
Analysis: MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Indians - Bluejays (Romero/Westbrook)(Best Bet) -119 | Unit Value: 3
Game Date: 5/4/2010
AL DeMARCO
Tuesday's Plays
15 DIME 2-Team Teaser of the Year # 3 Los Angeles and Orlando
NOTE: as you reduce the price you're laying with both favorites. Using a standard 2-team basketball teaser in which you get 4 points to play with, make the Lakers a 2 point chalk (based on the prices in Vegas as I release this play at 10:45 AM Pacific) against Utah at home, and tease them with the Magic, who considering the teaser-adjusted line would be laying approximately 5 points to visiting Atlanta tonight.
5 Dime Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 Runs versus Los Angeles
NOTE: Lester against Santana as you MUST specify pitchers.
Tuesday's Plays
15 DIME 2-Team Teaser of the Year # 3 Los Angeles and Orlando
NOTE: as you reduce the price you're laying with both favorites. Using a standard 2-team basketball teaser in which you get 4 points to play with, make the Lakers a 2 point chalk (based on the prices in Vegas as I release this play at 10:45 AM Pacific) against Utah at home, and tease them with the Magic, who considering the teaser-adjusted line would be laying approximately 5 points to visiting Atlanta tonight.
5 Dime Boston Red Sox - 1 1/2 Runs versus Los Angeles
NOTE: Lester against Santana as you MUST specify pitchers.
BIG AL
Big Al's games are rated from 3* to 5* and Opinion (1*)
31-21 Baseball Late Phones (+23.8 stars); 28-17 Opinions; 59-38 Combined.
Stats is only for baseball.
Baseball Plays for Tuesday, May 4
3* Reds -137 (Arroyo/Maine)
3* Red Sox/Angels 'under' 9.5 (Lester/Santana)
Opinion Cubs/Pirates 'over' 8 (Dempster/Maholm)
Opinion Astros -136 (Oswalt/Kennedy)
Basketball Plays for Tuesday, May 4
3* Orlando Magic -9
Big Al's games are rated from 3* to 5* and Opinion (1*)
31-21 Baseball Late Phones (+23.8 stars); 28-17 Opinions; 59-38 Combined.
Stats is only for baseball.
Baseball Plays for Tuesday, May 4
3* Reds -137 (Arroyo/Maine)
3* Red Sox/Angels 'under' 9.5 (Lester/Santana)
Opinion Cubs/Pirates 'over' 8 (Dempster/Maholm)
Opinion Astros -136 (Oswalt/Kennedy)
Basketball Plays for Tuesday, May 4
3* Orlando Magic -9
