BRIAN EDWARDS
Lakers at Suns
Pick: Under 222
I had the 'under' in Game 3 and it appeared poised to cash in the final minute until Jason Richardson shot a three early in the shot clock that caught nothing but the bottom of the net. Then all we needed was a Lakers' miss as they started their possession with 25 seconds left. If they miss, Phoenix runs out the clock for an 'under' winner. Instead, Pau Gasol gets a putback and the 'over' hits for the the third time in this series. With the total now up to 222 from 210.5 in Game 1, we think it's 'under' time again. This time around, however, we're going to be correct with a winner.
Lakers at Suns
Pick: Under 222
I had the 'under' in Game 3 and it appeared poised to cash in the final minute until Jason Richardson shot a three early in the shot clock that caught nothing but the bottom of the net. Then all we needed was a Lakers' miss as they started their possession with 25 seconds left. If they miss, Phoenix runs out the clock for an 'under' winner. Instead, Pau Gasol gets a putback and the 'over' hits for the the third time in this series. With the total now up to 222 from 210.5 in Game 1, we think it's 'under' time again. This time around, however, we're going to be correct with a winner.
JIMMY BOYD
5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue.
5* Game 4 *BEST BET* on Lakers -1
We cashed in with the Suns in Game 4 in their return home as I expected them to play better defense and to feed off the energy of their home crowd. That's exactly what happened, but there were some aberrations in Game 3 that lead me to believe that the Lakers will win tonight. First off, Robin Lopez scored 20 points, nearly 12 above his average. Secondly Amare Stoudemire scored 42 points, nearly 19 over his average. Lastly, the Lakers committed 17 turnovers and the Suns only committed 7. I don't expect Lopez and Stoudemire to have the same kind of nights in Game 4 and I don't expect the Suns to win the turnover battle so convincingly. With these numbers returning closer to normalcy tonight, I think the Lakers will prevail. Remember, LA has had the Suns' number, winning 11 of 15 meetings over the last 3 seasons and covering the spread in 10 of those games. I addition, Nash played a few more minutes that he is accustomed to playing and he was further banged up in Game 3, suffering a broken nose. I don't see him being quite as fresh and effective tonight either. The favorite has covered the number in the last 4 meetings and I look for this trend to continue.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +1.48 over MILWAUKEE
This equation is a rather simple one and it goes something like this: When Randy Wolf and the Brewers are a -1.57 favorite and the opposition players are not wearing bras, take the tag and let the chips fall where they may. The Brewers are a complete and utter disaster with nothing to offer but everything to get excited about when wagering against them. They give up runs in bunches while seldom scoring many of their own. Every reliever they bring in is worse than the last one and now Ken Macha is keeping in pitchers longer than he should because the relief has been so bad. It’s not unusual to see the Brewers playing from six or seven down very early. Randy Wolf (16 BPV, 3-1-5-0-2 PQS) has pitched every bit as poorly as his 5.10 ERA makes it appear. He has just one PQS-Dom performance in his last eight starts and he’s getting progressively worse. In fact, in four May starts, Wolf is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA and a BAA of .326. His command is awful, his velocity is down and he pitches for one of the worst teams in the league. After seeing Ubaldo Jiminez, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann and David Price, facing Randy Wolf may appear in slow motion for the Astros. Felipe Paulino is a work in progress but the fact that he’s winless is a crime. Paulino has wicked stuff and that should bode well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Paulino has three PQS-dominant outings in his last four starts. He features three outstanding pitches; a curve, slider and fastball that comes in at about 95MPH. In 23 innings this month the opposition is hitting just .230 off him. So, yeah, the Astros are challenged for sure and they’re having a horrible year but they’re slowly but surely coming around and they not nearly as bad as its record indicates. The Brewers are and frankly, the take-back is ludicrous. Play: Houston +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
Texas –1½ +1.16 over KANSAS CITY
There has to be something wrong with Gil Meche. Either that or he’s completely burned out. Meche has been brutally awful all year and even in his last game when he allowed just two runs in five frames he was awful. That pitching line is flattering as hell because Meche was literally behind every batter 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 and he’s lucky the Indians didn’t score eight or nine runs. The Royals have lost eight of the last 10 games that Meche has started and that’s unlikely to change here, as the Rangers always show up against this host and Meche is winless in his last 10 starts. In fact, Texas was won 16 of the last 21 meetings over the Royals and while Rich Harden is not having a good year by any stretch, this one is all about playing against Meche. And lastly, Meche has proven to be the easiest pitcher in the league to run against. He simply does not have the ability to keep runners from stealing because of a slow delivery to the plate. Singles turn into doubles and in eight games, Meche has allowed alarming 15 stolen bases. Play: Texas –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Pittsburgh
Paul Maholm’s last six starts have come against the Brewers twice, the Cubbies twice, the Astros and the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Brewers tagged him and a big correction is forthcoming in his 4.50 ERA. The league is till hitting .296 off Maholm and he’s about to face one of the hottest hitting clubs in the majors. The Reds have scored 58 times over its last 10 games and they’re batting .313 over that stretch. They’re 6-2 at home against lefties and overall the Reds have won 12 of its last 16 games. Mike Leake is 3-0 at home with a BAA of .205, which is even more impressive when you consider this hitter’s park he pitches in. Just 30% of balls in play off him have been hit in the air to the outfield. This guy throws strikes, he induces ground balls and the Reds have won six of the eight games he’s started for them. Entering Monday's game, a frigid Pittsburgh offense had just two jacks and 18 runs over the past week -- both major-league lows. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.01 over CHICAGO
Although Ryan Dempster is a solid pitcher, he can’t get it done on his own. The fact that we can take Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and lay a penny against the Cubs is pretty much all you need to know about this one. Just in case you wanted more convincing, how about the fact that the Dodgers are about 100 times better than the Cubbies in every way possible. L.A. has also won six in a row on the road and they’re bullpen might be 200 times better than the Cubbies. Chicago has picked it up by winning six of its last eight but that’s fools gold. This edition of the Cubs is the worst edition in years and it’s only a matter of time before Lou Pinella starts pulling out his hair again. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best in the business when he throws strikes and after a horrible start he has returned to his dominant form. Kershaw is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA over his last three, all PQS 5’s. Play: Los Angeles –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Boston +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The Rays have scored the most runs in the AL while allowing the least and they've hardly given their opposition a chance to breathe. With no one on base, the Rays' offense has been in the middle of the pack. In run-scoring situations, however, they've posted the best OPS in the league. And not just the best - the best by 90 points. The Yankees come in second, at .837. Clearly, the Rays have excelled when they've needed to. Unfortunately, clutch hitting isn't a skill. Or at least, clutch hitting isn't a skill, on the team level to this degree. They'll continue to be a very good team but the rate at which they've been pushing runs across the plate is due to slow down because they're not going to keep outpacing everyone else with runners in scoring position. As things begin to even out over the coming months, the Rays will score fewer runs, and as they score fewer runs, they'll win fewer games. Enter Jon Lester, one of the best in the business. Man, is this guy good. Lester is dialed in right now with a BAA of .181 in four May starts after allowing just 19 hits in 31 IP. On the year he’s struck out 63 batters in 59.2 innings and frankly, I really don’t care who he’s facing. When you can get a tag on Lester and the surging Red Sox, take it and ask no questions. Oh, one last tidbit here is that the Rays are 4-11 in James Shield’s last 15 starts vs the Red Sox. Play: Boston +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Houston +1.48 over MILWAUKEE
This equation is a rather simple one and it goes something like this: When Randy Wolf and the Brewers are a -1.57 favorite and the opposition players are not wearing bras, take the tag and let the chips fall where they may. The Brewers are a complete and utter disaster with nothing to offer but everything to get excited about when wagering against them. They give up runs in bunches while seldom scoring many of their own. Every reliever they bring in is worse than the last one and now Ken Macha is keeping in pitchers longer than he should because the relief has been so bad. It’s not unusual to see the Brewers playing from six or seven down very early. Randy Wolf (16 BPV, 3-1-5-0-2 PQS) has pitched every bit as poorly as his 5.10 ERA makes it appear. He has just one PQS-Dom performance in his last eight starts and he’s getting progressively worse. In fact, in four May starts, Wolf is 1-3 with a 7.66 ERA and a BAA of .326. His command is awful, his velocity is down and he pitches for one of the worst teams in the league. After seeing Ubaldo Jiminez, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann and David Price, facing Randy Wolf may appear in slow motion for the Astros. Felipe Paulino is a work in progress but the fact that he’s winless is a crime. Paulino has wicked stuff and that should bode well here against a Brewer team that has never seen a pitch they didn’t like. Paulino has three PQS-dominant outings in his last four starts. He features three outstanding pitches; a curve, slider and fastball that comes in at about 95MPH. In 23 innings this month the opposition is hitting just .230 off him. So, yeah, the Astros are challenged for sure and they’re having a horrible year but they’re slowly but surely coming around and they not nearly as bad as its record indicates. The Brewers are and frankly, the take-back is ludicrous. Play: Houston +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
Texas –1½ +1.16 over KANSAS CITY
There has to be something wrong with Gil Meche. Either that or he’s completely burned out. Meche has been brutally awful all year and even in his last game when he allowed just two runs in five frames he was awful. That pitching line is flattering as hell because Meche was literally behind every batter 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 or 3-1 and he’s lucky the Indians didn’t score eight or nine runs. The Royals have lost eight of the last 10 games that Meche has started and that’s unlikely to change here, as the Rangers always show up against this host and Meche is winless in his last 10 starts. In fact, Texas was won 16 of the last 21 meetings over the Royals and while Rich Harden is not having a good year by any stretch, this one is all about playing against Meche. And lastly, Meche has proven to be the easiest pitcher in the league to run against. He simply does not have the ability to keep runners from stealing because of a slow delivery to the plate. Singles turn into doubles and in eight games, Meche has allowed alarming 15 stolen bases. Play: Texas –1½ +1.16 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI –1½ +1.23 over Pittsburgh
Paul Maholm’s last six starts have come against the Brewers twice, the Cubbies twice, the Astros and the Cardinals. The Cardinals and Brewers tagged him and a big correction is forthcoming in his 4.50 ERA. The league is till hitting .296 off Maholm and he’s about to face one of the hottest hitting clubs in the majors. The Reds have scored 58 times over its last 10 games and they’re batting .313 over that stretch. They’re 6-2 at home against lefties and overall the Reds have won 12 of its last 16 games. Mike Leake is 3-0 at home with a BAA of .205, which is even more impressive when you consider this hitter’s park he pitches in. Just 30% of balls in play off him have been hit in the air to the outfield. This guy throws strikes, he induces ground balls and the Reds have won six of the eight games he’s started for them. Entering Monday's game, a frigid Pittsburgh offense had just two jacks and 18 runs over the past week -- both major-league lows. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.23 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1.01 over CHICAGO
Although Ryan Dempster is a solid pitcher, he can’t get it done on his own. The fact that we can take Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers and lay a penny against the Cubs is pretty much all you need to know about this one. Just in case you wanted more convincing, how about the fact that the Dodgers are about 100 times better than the Cubbies in every way possible. L.A. has also won six in a row on the road and they’re bullpen might be 200 times better than the Cubbies. Chicago has picked it up by winning six of its last eight but that’s fools gold. This edition of the Cubs is the worst edition in years and it’s only a matter of time before Lou Pinella starts pulling out his hair again. Clayton Kershaw is one of the best in the business when he throws strikes and after a horrible start he has returned to his dominant form. Kershaw is 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA over his last three, all PQS 5’s. Play: Los Angeles –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Boston +1.03 over TAMPA BAY
The Rays have scored the most runs in the AL while allowing the least and they've hardly given their opposition a chance to breathe. With no one on base, the Rays' offense has been in the middle of the pack. In run-scoring situations, however, they've posted the best OPS in the league. And not just the best - the best by 90 points. The Yankees come in second, at .837. Clearly, the Rays have excelled when they've needed to. Unfortunately, clutch hitting isn't a skill. Or at least, clutch hitting isn't a skill, on the team level to this degree. They'll continue to be a very good team but the rate at which they've been pushing runs across the plate is due to slow down because they're not going to keep outpacing everyone else with runners in scoring position. As things begin to even out over the coming months, the Rays will score fewer runs, and as they score fewer runs, they'll win fewer games. Enter Jon Lester, one of the best in the business. Man, is this guy good. Lester is dialed in right now with a BAA of .181 in four May starts after allowing just 19 hits in 31 IP. On the year he’s struck out 63 batters in 59.2 innings and frankly, I really don’t care who he’s facing. When you can get a tag on Lester and the surging Red Sox, take it and ask no questions. Oh, one last tidbit here is that the Rays are 4-11 in James Shield’s last 15 starts vs the Red Sox. Play: Boston +1.03 (Risking 2 units).
Was actually just about to say that, Thanks for all the time and effort you put into this forum
You truely make it a great place with all of your efforts
Also I know that Dwayne Bryant released both an MLB and NBA play tonight which is rare for him so if you see them and can post it would be much appreciated!
Thanks again from the whole RXforum community
Thanks Yankeefan13! If DB gets posted anywhere I will or someone else will bring it here. We all share. GL! cpaw.
Cantpickawinner have you ever heard of this site?: winner2winner.???
They claim to be 70% all the time and they send me emails about all the wins. They post their record on their website. Can someone pick this up? I just cant afford it. Also this site: vipsportspicks??another good one. Thanks for all the hard work. Im just wondering if anyone else has heard of them
They claim to be 70% all the time and they send me emails about all the wins. They post their record on their website. Can someone pick this up? I just cant afford it. Also this site: vipsportspicks??another good one. Thanks for all the hard work. Im just wondering if anyone else has heard of them
