Kevin's Pick(s):
After a day off yesterday I'm back with two plays, including one which is a 5 UNIT play.
5 STAR = Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants - GIANTS TO WIN (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Minor vs Vogelsong
(Note: I'm risking 5.00 units to win 5.00 units)
The Giants won the first of this series last night by a score of 4-2. The win improved them to 25-14 on the season and 11-5 at home. The Braves are now 21-16 overall and 8-8 on the road. These two teams had a 3 game series in Atlanta two weekends ago and the Giants swept that series, and are now 4-0 against the Braves allowing just 5 runs over those games. Mike Minor will make his 3rd start of the season tonight. He is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA, .391 OBA and 1.94 WHIP. He went 6 innings giving up 7 hits but just 2 earned runs vs the Giants in his first start, but followed that up giving up 11 hits and 6 eanred runs over 4.1 innings of work in his last start. Between the minors and the majors this year he has given up 9 homeruns in 33.2 innings of work. The Giants will have Ryan Vogelsong on the mound tonight and he is 1-1 on the season with a 3.93 ERA, .263 OBA and 1.42 WHIP. 3 of his first 4 starts weren't good, but since then Vogelsong has posted a 0.89 ERA over his last 3 starts. One of those starts included 6 innings allowing just 5 hits and 1 earned run in Atlanta. He is also 0-0 with a solid 2.50 ERA in three home starts and is holding batters to a .210 average at home. Take note that the Braves are last (30th) in the MLB in team batting average so far in May hitting just .213. They are also 28th on the season against righties hitting just .221 as a team with a .631 OPS. On the other hand the Giants are 11th hitting .262 as a team against lefties with a .765 OPS. Dating back to last season the Braves are just 1-7 in Minors last 8 starts and 0-6 in his last 6 starts with a total set att 7-8.5. The Braves are just 4-9 in their last 13 games overall and 0-5 in their last 5 road games. San Francisco is 6-1 in their last 7 home games, 7-0 in their last 7 vs a left handed starter, and 8-1 in their last 9 vs a team with a winning record. They are also 20-9 in Vogelsongs last 29 home starts and 4-1 in his last 5 starts overall. I see no reason we should be getting even money here on the Giants, and I will take that for 5 units.
2 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Oakland Athletics - WHITE SOX TO WIN (+180)
Listed Pitchers: Carroll vs Pomeranz
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.60 units)
The White Sox scored 3 runs in the top of the 9th last night to make things interesting, but lost 5-4 to Oakland. With that the A's improved to 11-9 at home, while Chicago is 8-11 on the road. Tonight's match up features Scott Carroll for Chicago and Drew Pomeranz for Oakland. Carroll is making his fourth start of the season and of his Major League career. he is 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA, .319 OBA and 1.56 WHIP. He had two very solid starts allowing just 1 earned run over 13.1 innings, but then allowed 6 earned runs over 4 innings his last time out. Pomeranz is 2-1 with a 1.45 ERA, .191 OBA and 1.02 WHIP, but that includes just 1 start over 10 appearances. As a starter last season in the MLB he had an 0-4 record and 8.10 ERA over 4 starts, and in 2012 he was 2-9 with a 4.93 ERA over 22 starts. Although the A's deserve to be favorites tonight at home, there is no way Pomeranz should be this big of a favorite given his past track record as a starter in the MLB. I'll take a shot at a big underdog, with the WHITE SOX at +180.
Kyle's Pick(s)
2 UNIT = Miami Marlins @ L.A. Dodgers - DODGERS -1.5 (+145)
Listed Pitchers: Turner vs. Beckett
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.08 units)
What in the world was that from Cesar Ramos. One of the worst pitching performances I have seen this season without a doubt. I took the OVER in a Ramos' game against the Yankees game earlier in the season and he pitched a gem, take the UNDER against the Mariners and he gives up 8 runs in a few innings, go figure.
I think there is tremendous value in this game. Jacob Turner has been over valued for quite some time now. He had one okay year, but Turner was once the Tigers best pitching prospect in the minors. A career best 3.74 ERA is not what many people thought we'd get out of Turner. There is still plenty of time for him to turn it around, he is still young, but 2014 is proving to be a train wreck for him thus far. In three starts his ERA is all the way up to 6.75 and got throttled against the only two good offenses he has faced this season, the Rockies and Angels. He looked fine against the Padres in his last start, but they are not the biggest measuring stick. Dating back to 2013, that was the first start Turner allowed less than 3 runs in seven starts. Turner had a great first-half of the season, but tailed off majorly towards the end of the season. His 3.74 ERA from last season is a reflection of what he did early on. Turner's rough end to last season has carried over to this one as the 6.75 ERA indicates. His WHIP and OBP is just outrageous as well, a 1.69 and .375 OBP. Conversely, Josh Beckett has really impressed me. After 35.1 innings pitched Beckett possesses a 2.80 ERA. His home numbers are quite impressive too, 2.66 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. If he can stay healthy Beckett is a great asset to this team. And at the moment, he is healthy and showing that he has some gas left in the tank. I thought the Dodgers would be more expensive against Turner, so I'm going to try and take advantage of a nice price on the -1.5.
Cheers,
