Service Plays Tuesday 4/8/14

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS STAT/SHEETS, 4/8/14
NATIONAL BASKETBALL ASSOCIATION
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Tuesday, 4/8/14 NBA Information *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2013-14 National Basketball Association season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
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Betting Notes - Tuesday
•Hot Teams
-- Hawks won three of their last four games.
-- Spurs won 20 of last 21 games, covered five of last six.
-- Minnesota won three of its last four home games.
-- Nets/Heat both won five of their last six games.
-- Mavericks won five of their last seven games.
-- Rockets won seven of last ten games (1-4 ATS L5).

•Cold Teams
-- Pistons lost five of their last seven games.
-- Jazz lost six of their last seven games (0-3-1 ATS L4).
-- Thunder lost last three road games, by 9-7-4 points.
-- Lakers lost six of their last seven games.

•Totals
-- Last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Eight of last ten San Antonio games stayed under.
-- Six of last eight Miami games stayed under.
-- Seven of last ten Dallas games went over total.
-- Last five King-Thunder games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over total.
-- Four of last five Laker games stayed under.

•Series Records
-- Hawks won nine of last 12 games with Detroit.
-- Spurs won five of last seven games with Minnesota.
-- Nets are 3-0 vs. Miami this year, with two wins by a point.
-- Mavericks won their last four games with Utah.
-- Thunder won last nine games with Kings (2-4-1 ATS L7 meetings).
-- Lakers lost six of last nine games with Houston.

Hoop Trends - Tuesday
•DALLAS is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they attempted 15 or free throws since 1996.
The average score was DALLAS 100.2, OPPONENT 96.5.

•DETROIT is 17-3 OVER (+13.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 102.0, OPPONENT 105.1.

•MINNESOTA is 0-9 (-9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was MINNESOTA 50.1, OPPONENT 57.1.

•SAN ANTONIO is 10-0 UNDER (+10.0 Units) the 1rst half total after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread this season.
The average score was SAN ANTONIO 54.4, OPPONENT 41.2.

•MIKE MALONE is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers as the coach of SACRAMENTO.
The average score was MALONE 96.1, OPPONENT 98.4.

Situation Analysis of The Day
•Play Against - Underdogs of +145 to +350 versus the money line (LA LAKERS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 100 or more points, off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival.
(45-2 over the last 5 seasons.) (95.7%, +40.6 units. Rating = 5*)

The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -220
The average score in these games was: Team 105.6, Opponent 96.3 (Average point differential = +9.3)

The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (20-0, +20 units).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (123-42, +24.1 units).
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[pascal5757]

Totals 4 You MLB Service Selections for Tuesday, April 8th

American League East Daytime Dominator!!!!!
Baltimore/New York over 8 1/2

MLB Best Bets
New York/Atlanta under 7 1/2
Texas/Boston over 9 1/2
Chicago/Colorado under 10
Milwaukee/Philadelphia under 8 1/2
​

 

[pascal5757]

Totals 4 You NBA Selections for Tuesday, April 8th

2014 NBA Eastern Conference Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Detroit/Atlanta over 209 1/2

You Win or we'll email you Wednesday's NBA Report Free of Charge!!!

NBA Best Bets
Dallas/Utah under 199 1/2
Brooklyn/Miami under 195
Oklahoma City/Sacramento over 204
Houston/LA Lakers under 225 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Baseball Crusher
St. Louis Cardinals -135 over Cincy Reds
(System Record: 6-0, lost last game)
Overall Record: 6-3

Rest of the Plays
Seattle Mariners -125 over LA Angels
Detroit Tigers -125 over LA Angels
New York Mets +125 over Atlanta Braves

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Basketball Crusher
Utah Jazz +7.5 over Dallas Mavericks
(System Record: 72-8, lost last game)
Overall Record: 72-83-5

Rest of the Plays
Detroit Pistons +6.5 over Atlanta Hawks
Oklahoma City Thunder -8 over Sacramento Kings
Detroit Pistons + Atlanta Hawks OVER 210.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hockey Crusher
Boston Bruins -125 over Minnesota Wild
(System Record: 87-4, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 87-71-1

Rest of the Plays
Dallas Stars -165 over Nashville
New York Islanders +104 over Ottawa Senators
Winnipeg Jets -105 over Minnesota Wild
Florida +153 over Philadelphia Flyers

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ScLiveDogs

Why we like the Brewers on Tuesday at -105…this Brewers team is playing some good baseball at this point in the season coming off of a three game sweep against the Boston Red Sox where they averaged 5.6 RPG and allowed just 2.6 RPG. Coming off of an off-day will also benefit the Brewers as they get an extra day to get situated in Philadelphia for Tuesdays day-game. The Brewers have played 4 day-games in this young season so far, where they have a record of 3-1. This Phillies team comes into Tuesdays game after a 2-3 series against the Cubs where they scored 12 runs and allowed 10 runs. The Brewers will be pitching Kyle Lohse who comes into Tuesdays start after allowed just 3 runs through 7 innings on 5 hits, 2 BBs & 8 Ks in his 2014 debut to the Braves. Lohse made a single start against the Phillies in 2013 where he got the W allowing 1 run through 8 innings on 4 hits, 1 BB & 6 Ks. Lohse last pitched IN Philadelphia in 2012 where he allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 4 hits, 2 BBs & 7 Ks. Kyle Kendrick will be on the bump for the Phillies who is also coming off of a nice 2014 debut against the Rangers. In that start, Kendrick allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 5 hits, 1 BB & 4 Ks. This Brewers team has a combined 73 ABs off of Kendrick where they have a .315 average with 2 HRs. There are two major factors that we consider when fading Kendrick in this game. In 2013, Kendrick saw his era rise from a 4.70 era to a 6.07 era when coming off of 5 Days of Rest which he will be coming in off of on Tuesday. Kendrick was also 0-4 with a 5.87 era during day-games in 2013. The bullpens of these two teams clearly give the Brewers the advantage where they carry a 1.02 era through 17 innings where they have allowed just 1 HR on 4 BBs & 20 Ks. On the road, the Brewers bullpen has a 0.00 era through 11 innings on 3 BBs & 12 Ks. On the other hand, the Phillies bullpen has a 4.02 era through 15 innings where they have allowed 12 BBs & 14 Ks. Play on the Brewers at -105.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHASE DIAMOND

10* MLB RUN LINE DESTROYER
Baltimore vs. NY Yankees
Baltimore+1½/-155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ScLiveDogs

Why we like the Brewers on Tuesday at -105…this Brewers team is playing some good baseball at this point in the season coming off of a three game sweep against the Boston Red Sox where they averaged 5.6 RPG and allowed just 2.6 RPG. Coming off of an off-day will also benefit the Brewers as they get an extra day to get situated in Philadelphia for Tuesdays day-game. The Brewers have played 4 day-games in this young season so far, where they have a record of 3-1. This Phillies team comes into Tuesdays game after a 2-3 series against the Cubs where they scored 12 runs and allowed 10 runs. The Brewers will be pitching Kyle Lohse who comes into Tuesdays start after allowed just 3 runs through 7 innings on 5 hits, 2 BBs & 8 Ks in his 2014 debut to the Braves. Lohse made a single start against the Phillies in 2013 where he got the W allowing 1 run through 8 innings on 4 hits, 1 BB & 6 Ks. Lohse last pitched IN Philadelphia in 2012 where he allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 4 hits, 2 BBs & 7 Ks. Kyle Kendrick will be on the bump for the Phillies who is also coming off of a nice 2014 debut against the Rangers. In that start, Kendrick allowed 1 run through 7 innings on 5 hits, 1 BB & 4 Ks. This Brewers team has a combined 73 ABs off of Kendrick where they have a .315 average with 2 HRs. There are two major factors that we consider when fading Kendrick in this game. In 2013, Kendrick saw his era rise from a 4.70 era to a 6.07 era when coming off of 5 Days of Rest which he will be coming in off of on Tuesday. Kendrick was also 0-4 with a 5.87 era during day-games in 2013. The bullpens of these two teams clearly give the Brewers the advantage where they carry a 1.02 era through 17 innings where they have allowed just 1 HR on 4 BBs & 20 Ks. On the road, the Brewers bullpen has a 0.00 era through 11 innings on 3 BBs & 12 Ks. On the other hand, the Phillies bullpen has a 4.02 era through 15 innings where they have allowed 12 BBs & 14 Ks. Play on the Brewers at -105.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

NBA | DETROIT at ATLANTA
Play On – Road teams (DETROIT) a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a poor defensive team (98-102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
8-8 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.8 units )

NBA | DETROIT at ATLANTA
Play Against – Road teams vs. the money line (DETROIT) poor three point shooting team (<=33%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO’s) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO’s)
59-22 over the last 5 seasons. ( 72.8% | 31.2 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 1.0 units )

NBA | DETROIT at ATLANTA
Play Over – All teams where the first half total is greater than 100 an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG differential), after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

StatFox Super Situations – FoxSheets

MLB | TAMPA BAY at KANSAS CITY
Play Against – Home teams (KANSAS CITY) poor AL hitting team (AVG <=.260) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA <=3.33), with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.50 or worse on the season
58-31 since 1997. ( 65.2% | 30.8 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends – FoxSheets

MLB | NY METS at ATLANTA
NY METS are 17-9 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in Road games vs. a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (5.2) , OPPONENT (3.8)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

River City Sharps

Mavericks at Jazz

We have this game pegged at 210 for the total, so we think there is some value here tonight going over the posted total of 199.5. Last five games, the Mavericks are averaging 107.2 ppg and while Utah’s offense has struggled at times this season, Dallas also doesn’t put up a ton of resistance on the defensive end. Both teams are off one night’s rest, so we think you will see a good effort from both. Eric Lewis on the referee assignment tonight, who is an OVER machine! The Sharps say…

3 UNITS – DAL/UTAH – OVER 199.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

EZWINNERS

2* Orioles +115
2* D-Backs +135
2* Cubs +108

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cappers Access

Rockets -9.5
W. Sox +130
Brewers -105

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Tuesday, April 8

Tony Parker, San Antonio - Out Tuesday

San Antonio Spurs PG Tony Parker started suffering from back spasms and did not return to Sunday's game against the Grizzlies. He underwent an MRI which showed inflammation in his back. He will not play Tuesday against the Timberwolves.


Dumars to step down as Pistons President

Joe Dumars has told multiple sources within the NBA that he plans to resign from his role as the Pistons president. According to The Detroit News, the decision could even come as early as this week.

Dumars has had a rough season in Detroit to say the least. After going on an offseason spending spree, the Pistons ended up being abysmal on the court going 28-49 (32-44-1 against the spread).


Lakers: Calipari is not our next coach

Is John Calipari heading from the Bluegrass State to Hollywood?

Former Kentucky basketball star Rex Chapman tweeted Monday that Calipari, the Wildcats' coach, would be the Los Angeles Lakers' next coach.

The Lakers moved quickly to deny the report, which came shortly before Kentucky took on Connecticut in the national championship game at Arlington, Texas.

The Los Angeles Times quoted Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak saying the "rumor is untrue."

Calipari is finishing his fifth season at Kentucky, and he led the Wildcats to the 2012 national title. He previously guided Massachusetts and Memphis to the Final Four, though both of those appearances were later erased due to NCAA violations.


Raptors' Valanciunas charged with DUI

Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas has been charged with driving under the influence of alcohol, the team confirmed Monday.

Ontario Provincial Police arrested Valanciunas at a home early Monday morning.

Valanciunas, 21, is in his second season with the Raptors. He is averaging 11 points and 8.6 rebounds a game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pucking the trends: NHL weekly betting news and notes

For the week of March 31-April 6.

Hot team

Nashville Predators (2-0 SU)

The Predators weren't busy last week, but they made the most of their reduced schedule by winning a pair of tough road games to remain mathematically alive in the Western Conference playoff hunt. Nashville kicked off the week with an impressive 5-2 triumph over host Anaheim behind a two-goal, one-assist performance from Mike Fisher. The Predators followed that up with a 3-0 triumph in San Jose on the strength of a sensational 35-save effort from backup netminder Carter Hutton.


Cold team

Phoenix Coyotes (0-3 SU)

Phoenix has tumbled out of the Western Conference playoff scene thanks to a four-game losing skid - equaling its longest of the season. This one couldn't have come at a worse time, as the Coyotes now find themselves a point behind eighth-place Dallas with both teams having four games remaining. Phoenix opened the week with a 2-1 shootout loss to the Winnipeg Jets before falling 4-0 in Los Angeles and capping the dreadful stretch with a 3-2 shootout defeat to the lowly Edmonton Oilers.


Best Over play

Chicago Blackhawks (2-0-1 O/U)

Strong "over" results were hard to find this past week, which made the Blackhawks one of the few teams to pay bettors off. Despite playing without injured star forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane, Chicago found a way to manufacture enough offense to put together a three-game winning streak, earning a push in a 3-2 shootout win over Minnesota before defeating Columbus 4-3 and topping St. Louis 4-2. The breakout was a critical one for Chicago, which had scored just four goals in its previous three games.


Best Under play

Carolina Hurricanes (0-4 O/U)

The Hurricanes have been the team to bet when it comes to "unders", reeling off six in a row and going 1-10 O/U in their last 11. After dropping a 2-1 shootout decision to the Ottawa Senators to open the week, Carolina rode solid goaltending Anton Khudobin to consecutive 4-1 victories over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Dallas Stars. Khudobin was solid again on Saturday, but the Hurricanes offense couldn't support him as they fell 3-1 to New Jersey to fall to a Metropolitan Division-worst 29-42 O/U on the season.


Surveying the schedule

The St. Louis Blues still have the inside track for the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference - owning a three-point advantage over Anaheim with four games remaining for each team - and will face four teams outside the top-six in their respective conferences to wrap up the regular season. The Blues open at home against Washington before heading on the road for games in Minnesota and Dallas. The Blues then end the season at home versus Detroit.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

This week's best NHL spot bet opportunities

Letdown spot

The Senators haven't done themselves any favors lately, dropping two of their last three games to all but fall out of the playoff picture entirely. They are, however, fresh off a win over the Rangers at MSG on Saturday night.

After being idle for a couple of days in New York, I'm not anticipating the Sens bringing their 'A' game on Tuesday night, as they make the short trip to Long Island. Despite being undermanned, the Isles have been playing well, winners of five of their last seven games overall. I like their chances on home ice in this spot.


Lookahead spot

The Ducks picked up their 50th win of the season last week against Edmonton, but followed it up with a stinker against the Predators, dropping a 5-2 decision on home ice. After playing in Edmonton on Sunday night, they'll move on to Vancouver on Monday.

Note that Anaheim has a bigger game on deck Wedneday night against the rival Sharks in San Jose. It's unlikely we'll see them go full throttle against a Canucks squad they just defeated 5-1 a little over a week ago. The Canucks may be down, but they're not out, as we saw on Saturday when they skated past the surging Kings.


Schedule spot

It's going to be a busy week for the Islanders, and with that in mind, they'll likely find themselves in tough on Friday night in New Jersey.

New York will be playing its fourth game in six nights against the Devils. As I mentioned earlier, the Isles have been playing well, but so have the Devils, and of course New Jersey has more to play for as it fights for its playoff life. The Isles got the better of the Devils back on March 29th on Long Island, but I suspect the shoe will be on the other foot on Friday night.

 

[jdsabre]

Guaranteed Picks


NBA
Jazz
Thunder
Heat
Spurs

 

[jdsabre]

Prophet Plays


MLB




Milwaukee ML
Washington Nationals -1.5
St Louis Cardinals ML
Colorado Rockies ML

 

[pascal5757]

Kevin's Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies - UNDER 8.5 RUNS (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Lohse vs Kendrick
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.74 units)
The Phillies home opener was pushed back to Tuesday due to rain in the forecast in Monday. This game will take place at 4:05PM EST, and will feature Kyle Lohse vs Kyle Kendrick on the mound. Lohse opened the season vs Atlanta taking a loss, although he pitched well going 7 innings giving up 5 hits and 3 earned runs. He struckout 8 in the game and walked just 2. Lohse owns a 2.98 ERA vs Philadelphia, and has a 3.26 ERA at Citizens Bank Park. Kyle Kendrick pitched well this spring with a 2.81 ERA, .220 OBA and 1.25 WHIP over 16 innings of work. That translated right into his first start where he went 7 innings allowing 5 hits and 1 earned run with 4 strikeouts and a walk vs the Rangers in Texas (facing a DH which he won't be Tuesday). The Brewers have opened the season with 5 of their first 6 games going UNDER the posted total. The Phillies have gone UNDER the total in 4 of their 6 games, and 4 of their last 5 overall. Note that the UNDER is 12-4 in Lohse's last 16 starts as an underdog and 15-5-1 in the Brewers last 21 road games dating back to last season. The UNDER is 6-1-1 in Kendrick's last 8 starts dating back to last season, and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers. I like how both pitchers looked in their first starts of the season and I like the higher total we're getting here Tuesday afternoon. Take the UNDER.
Kyle's Pick(s):
2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS -1.5 (+111)
Listed Pitchers: Oberholtzer vs. Buehrle
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.22 units)
An unfortunate beat yesterday, I won't call it bad because that'll happen in baseball over the course over a season. All we needed is 3 outs to cash the bet, but the Reds scored a couple of pointless runs in the top of the 9th to give us a loss on the UNDER. Hopefully beats and wins like that even out by the end of the season, but the losing end of the stick is never easy to take in the last inning.
I didn't really like the idea of betting another Astros game, but whatever I think will make us money. We may be some of the only people that have watched so many Houston games in this young season. When I saw Mark Buehrle was starting against the 'Stros it caught my attention, though. I think Buehrle will end up emerging as the Blue Jays top pitcher, and one one of the more reliable option in the majors. He looked great in spring training, yielding a 2.93 ERA and then turned it into a fantastic opening start in his first start of the regular season. Buehrle didn't allow any runs against the Tampa Bay Rays while striking out 11 batters. In addition, his WHIP stayed incredibly low at 0.53. The Rays have a capable offense, so that start is nothing to shrug off. The Astros will be flying all the way from Texas to Toronto after dropping 3 out of 4 from the Angels. At 3-4 the Astros have been playing above expectations, but I think it will be sooner rather than later their offense begins to look dreadful. Brett Oberholtzer is a fine pitcher, don't get me wrong, but I can see him struggling against some of the more offensive heavy lineups in MLB. I'll surely be on plenty of UNDER bets with him against struggling offenses, but the Blue Jays may be a tough out tonight. He could have been better in his first start against the Yankees, posting a 4.76 ERA in 5.2 innings pitched. The Jays have been hitting lefties better than right-handers thus far this season and should get enough to beat the Astros by more than a run. I like Buehrle to put forth another dominating performance at home, getting the Blue Jays back on track after losing to the Yankees on Sunday. I don't love this bet, but I like it. There isn't really anything that screamed at me on the card tonight, but I believe I am on the right side with this bet tonight, so I'll play it for 2 units.
Cheers,