http://www.rocketmansports.net/sportscapping.php?capper/capper/441/Michail
NBA orlando/hawks over
NHL Montreal ML
paid and confirm
NBA orlando/hawks over
NHL Montreal ML
paid and confirm
SPORTS WAGERS
Boston –102 over MONTREAL
The closeout game is the toughest to win but the Bruins are clearly the superior team in every facet of the game, with the exception of goaltending, and in that department you can call it a wash. The Bruins were down 0-2 in this series and went into Montreal and swept the next two. This situation is not more difficult, as the Bruins had to win twice in Montreal or they would’ve been in serious jeopardy of going home. Montreal’s only real chance of winning is to score some power-play goals because they just don’t match up well at even strength. The referees have been quite liberal with their whistles in this series and have let the two teams battle it out. The Bruins have made a commitment to staying out of the box and in fact, Montreal has had only four PP chances over the last two games. It’s no coincidence that they lost both times. Give us the much better team with momentum, spotting a few pennies. Play: Boston –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Atlanta +7½ over ORLANDO
Frankly, we have no idea why the Magic are getting so much credit. They’re down 3-1 in the series and have yet to cover a single game. Orlando has scored 88, 84 and 85 points respectively over the past three games and while the Hawks haven’t scored many more, they’re not the one’s laying 7½ points. Even down the stretch in the regular season, Orlando didn’t dominate anyone. A closer look reveals a whole slew of very narrow wins against some weak teams that include a four-point win over the Raps, a six-point win over Milwaukee, and an OT win over Charlotte. Looking even closer, from March 3 to April 3, the Magic failed to cover in 13 of 15 games and now they’re being asked to spot 7½ points to a team that is playing better than they are? Atlanta was humiliated by these Magic in last year’s playoffs so perhaps people are expecting a game like that at any time. Thing is, Atlanta was blown out in games one, two and three and it was a different mindset. Things change and this year it was Orlando that limped into the playoffs and it has carried over. Dwight Howard remains a stud but he’s had little support around him and with each passing game, the weight on his shoulders increases. Not only can Atlanta close out this series with a very possible win, they surely can stay well within this range. When you consider the low posted total of 178, this one just makes sense. Play: Atlanta +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Orleans +10½ over L.A. LAKERS
Let’s forget about the X’s and O’s for a minute. The mere fact that the total in this game is 183 and we’re being offered 10½-points is really the only thing we need to look at. That total alone strongly indicates that the Hornets should cover. For you to feel comfortable laying 10½ points with the Lakers they are going to have to be up by 16 or more late in the game and thus far in this series they have not even come close to sustaining a lead like that. Additionally, Kobe Bryant is will be playing on a bum ankle. One bad step and he’s done for the game and even if he plays the whole four quarters, jump shooters need their ankles for lift. Then there’s Chris Paul. Few players in recent playoff years have carved up the Lakers’ defense as thoroughly as Chris Paul is doing it in this series. Paul, who destroyed Los Angeles with 33 points and 14 assists in Game 1, is averaging 25.5 points, 11.5 assists and 7 rebounds per game after putting up the first triple-double ever posted against the Lakers in 712 playoff games during New Orleans’ win in Game 4. Lastly and once again, you’re paying a big premium to wager on the Lakers and that can’t be endorsed. Hornets plus double digits is the prudent choice based primarily on the total and the fact that they’ve not been outclassed in four games. Play: New Orleans +10½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Indiana +9½ over CHICAGO
The Bulls are getting pushed in a big way. They could just as easily be trailing in this series—if not out of it— considering they rallied to win the first three games by a combined 15 points. This one is very similar to the one above, as the series has been low scoring and the Bulls star player is suiting up with a bum ankle. Derrick Rose was in a walking boot on Sunday and didn’t practice yesterday after going 3-16 from the floor in game four. The Pacers have confidence. They’ve frustrated Rose and the Bulls with traps, throwing the offense out of sync, and they’ve been fouling hard on shots down low. Indiana has converted 67 turnovers into 89 points and has held Chicago to 39.8 % shooting. The Pacers are “free-rolling”. They were given zero chance of winning this series and they’re likely not going to. However, they’re loose and have nothing to lose while all the pressure is on the Bulls. In any case, the Bulls have yet to even come close to covering this number and this could be their most difficult game of the series with Rose hobbling and Indiana playing with some self-belief. Play: Indiana +9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
L.A. ANGELS +111 over Oakland
The A’s are among the bottom of the league in just about every offensive category and that makes them an unnecessary risk laying juice on the road. LAA had won seven of eight before running into red-hot Boston and so they’ll be thrilled to host the A’s and their combined .239 BA. Tyler Chatwood has made only three starts in the majors but he cemented his status as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a splendid '10 campaign. The outstanding break on his nasty curveball gives him a plus-plus secondary pitch. Chatwood is in the majors much quicker than expected and like many youngsters, he has struggled in the early going. He’s faced Cleveland, the White Sox and Boston and in that last start versus the Red Sox he went six full and gave up just six hits and two earned runs. Chatwood is aggressive and has the pitch mix and stuff to become a stellar big league starter. Brandon McCarthy is off to a great start. He’s increased the use of his efficient slider. His average fastball velocity has topped 90 MPH for the first time in a while and he’s getting results. However, his strand rate of 79% is unsustainable and his pinpoint control (three walks 20 K’s) is completely out of character. McCarthy could certainly throw a good game here. It’s hard to argue that he’s not the better pitcher but if the better pitcher won every game we’d all be rich. The A’s have never seen Chatwood and they can’t hit so the pooch at home provides value Play: L.A. Angels +111 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +105 over MILWAUKEE
The Reds opened the year by sweeping the Brewers in Cincinnati and scoring 23 times in the three-game set. Last night, Cincinnati opened this series by scoring nine runs. The Reds are pounding Milwaukee’s pitching and now they’ll face a reliever turned starter here in Marco Estrada. Estrada has pitched in four games this season with two of those coming in relief. He’s made two starts and was good in one against the Nats while he was hit hard in the other against the Braves. Estrada has pitched 31 innings in the majors throughout the past three years and he's yet to solidify a role. None of his offerings are standout pitches, though he maximizes their utility by mixing them well. He uses an 87-92 mph fastball to set up his secondary offerings that include an average curveball and changeup. He's able to work consistently ahead in the count and spots his fastball well but his pitches lack movement and so he's susceptible to being hit hard. Estrada has a career 6.55 ERA. Mike Leake continues to impress. If he cuts down on walks, he could be a premier pitcher because of a strong groundball tilt and solid strikeout rate. His ERA reads 4.94 but that’s because of one bad outing. His other three starts this year were solid and he’s certainly a more reliable starter than a career reliever. Throw in a small tag and we’ll bite. Play: Cincinnati +105 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +144 over CLEVELAND
The Royals lead the AL with a team BA of .269. In the AL, only the Rangers have scored more runs than they have and they also lead the majors with 30 stolen bases. The Royals are dangerous and they offer up some pretty sweet value here with Luke Hochevar on the mound. Hochevar has a 5.12 ERA after 32 IP, so he's not a target for bettors but there's reason for optimism. He has a 3.89 xERA due to this solid skill foundation that includes outstanding control and a 50% groundball rate. A 17% HR/F has inflated his ERA. It's too early to tell if he can sustain his pinpoint control and great command but if he can, there's a legit sub-4.00 ERA here. Justin Masterson is 4-0 and has an elite 1.71 ERA and a nice 1.14 WHIP after 26 IP. LH bats continue to hit him pretty hard (.283 BA, .733 OPS) and he’s also been helped by a friendly 26% hit rate and massive 83% strand rate. His pitch mix and velocity are not significantly different from last year’s 4.71 ERA and BAA of .278 so expect a serious regression in his numbers soon. Overpriced pitcher versus underpriced pitcher. Play: Kansas City +144 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –102 over MONTREAL
The closeout game is the toughest to win but the Bruins are clearly the superior team in every facet of the game, with the exception of goaltending, and in that department you can call it a wash. The Bruins were down 0-2 in this series and went into Montreal and swept the next two. This situation is not more difficult, as the Bruins had to win twice in Montreal or they would’ve been in serious jeopardy of going home. Montreal’s only real chance of winning is to score some power-play goals because they just don’t match up well at even strength. The referees have been quite liberal with their whistles in this series and have let the two teams battle it out. The Bruins have made a commitment to staying out of the box and in fact, Montreal has had only four PP chances over the last two games. It’s no coincidence that they lost both times. Give us the much better team with momentum, spotting a few pennies. Play: Boston –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Atlanta +7½ over ORLANDO
Frankly, we have no idea why the Magic are getting so much credit. They’re down 3-1 in the series and have yet to cover a single game. Orlando has scored 88, 84 and 85 points respectively over the past three games and while the Hawks haven’t scored many more, they’re not the one’s laying 7½ points. Even down the stretch in the regular season, Orlando didn’t dominate anyone. A closer look reveals a whole slew of very narrow wins against some weak teams that include a four-point win over the Raps, a six-point win over Milwaukee, and an OT win over Charlotte. Looking even closer, from March 3 to April 3, the Magic failed to cover in 13 of 15 games and now they’re being asked to spot 7½ points to a team that is playing better than they are? Atlanta was humiliated by these Magic in last year’s playoffs so perhaps people are expecting a game like that at any time. Thing is, Atlanta was blown out in games one, two and three and it was a different mindset. Things change and this year it was Orlando that limped into the playoffs and it has carried over. Dwight Howard remains a stud but he’s had little support around him and with each passing game, the weight on his shoulders increases. Not only can Atlanta close out this series with a very possible win, they surely can stay well within this range. When you consider the low posted total of 178, this one just makes sense. Play: Atlanta +7½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
New Orleans +10½ over L.A. LAKERS
Let’s forget about the X’s and O’s for a minute. The mere fact that the total in this game is 183 and we’re being offered 10½-points is really the only thing we need to look at. That total alone strongly indicates that the Hornets should cover. For you to feel comfortable laying 10½ points with the Lakers they are going to have to be up by 16 or more late in the game and thus far in this series they have not even come close to sustaining a lead like that. Additionally, Kobe Bryant is will be playing on a bum ankle. One bad step and he’s done for the game and even if he plays the whole four quarters, jump shooters need their ankles for lift. Then there’s Chris Paul. Few players in recent playoff years have carved up the Lakers’ defense as thoroughly as Chris Paul is doing it in this series. Paul, who destroyed Los Angeles with 33 points and 14 assists in Game 1, is averaging 25.5 points, 11.5 assists and 7 rebounds per game after putting up the first triple-double ever posted against the Lakers in 712 playoff games during New Orleans’ win in Game 4. Lastly and once again, you’re paying a big premium to wager on the Lakers and that can’t be endorsed. Hornets plus double digits is the prudent choice based primarily on the total and the fact that they’ve not been outclassed in four games. Play: New Orleans +10½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Indiana +9½ over CHICAGO
The Bulls are getting pushed in a big way. They could just as easily be trailing in this series—if not out of it— considering they rallied to win the first three games by a combined 15 points. This one is very similar to the one above, as the series has been low scoring and the Bulls star player is suiting up with a bum ankle. Derrick Rose was in a walking boot on Sunday and didn’t practice yesterday after going 3-16 from the floor in game four. The Pacers have confidence. They’ve frustrated Rose and the Bulls with traps, throwing the offense out of sync, and they’ve been fouling hard on shots down low. Indiana has converted 67 turnovers into 89 points and has held Chicago to 39.8 % shooting. The Pacers are “free-rolling”. They were given zero chance of winning this series and they’re likely not going to. However, they’re loose and have nothing to lose while all the pressure is on the Bulls. In any case, the Bulls have yet to even come close to covering this number and this could be their most difficult game of the series with Rose hobbling and Indiana playing with some self-belief. Play: Indiana +9½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
L.A. ANGELS +111 over Oakland
The A’s are among the bottom of the league in just about every offensive category and that makes them an unnecessary risk laying juice on the road. LAA had won seven of eight before running into red-hot Boston and so they’ll be thrilled to host the A’s and their combined .239 BA. Tyler Chatwood has made only three starts in the majors but he cemented his status as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball with a splendid '10 campaign. The outstanding break on his nasty curveball gives him a plus-plus secondary pitch. Chatwood is in the majors much quicker than expected and like many youngsters, he has struggled in the early going. He’s faced Cleveland, the White Sox and Boston and in that last start versus the Red Sox he went six full and gave up just six hits and two earned runs. Chatwood is aggressive and has the pitch mix and stuff to become a stellar big league starter. Brandon McCarthy is off to a great start. He’s increased the use of his efficient slider. His average fastball velocity has topped 90 MPH for the first time in a while and he’s getting results. However, his strand rate of 79% is unsustainable and his pinpoint control (three walks 20 K’s) is completely out of character. McCarthy could certainly throw a good game here. It’s hard to argue that he’s not the better pitcher but if the better pitcher won every game we’d all be rich. The A’s have never seen Chatwood and they can’t hit so the pooch at home provides value Play: L.A. Angels +111 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati +105 over MILWAUKEE
The Reds opened the year by sweeping the Brewers in Cincinnati and scoring 23 times in the three-game set. Last night, Cincinnati opened this series by scoring nine runs. The Reds are pounding Milwaukee’s pitching and now they’ll face a reliever turned starter here in Marco Estrada. Estrada has pitched in four games this season with two of those coming in relief. He’s made two starts and was good in one against the Nats while he was hit hard in the other against the Braves. Estrada has pitched 31 innings in the majors throughout the past three years and he's yet to solidify a role. None of his offerings are standout pitches, though he maximizes their utility by mixing them well. He uses an 87-92 mph fastball to set up his secondary offerings that include an average curveball and changeup. He's able to work consistently ahead in the count and spots his fastball well but his pitches lack movement and so he's susceptible to being hit hard. Estrada has a career 6.55 ERA. Mike Leake continues to impress. If he cuts down on walks, he could be a premier pitcher because of a strong groundball tilt and solid strikeout rate. His ERA reads 4.94 but that’s because of one bad outing. His other three starts this year were solid and he’s certainly a more reliable starter than a career reliever. Throw in a small tag and we’ll bite. Play: Cincinnati +105 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City +144 over CLEVELAND
The Royals lead the AL with a team BA of .269. In the AL, only the Rangers have scored more runs than they have and they also lead the majors with 30 stolen bases. The Royals are dangerous and they offer up some pretty sweet value here with Luke Hochevar on the mound. Hochevar has a 5.12 ERA after 32 IP, so he's not a target for bettors but there's reason for optimism. He has a 3.89 xERA due to this solid skill foundation that includes outstanding control and a 50% groundball rate. A 17% HR/F has inflated his ERA. It's too early to tell if he can sustain his pinpoint control and great command but if he can, there's a legit sub-4.00 ERA here. Justin Masterson is 4-0 and has an elite 1.71 ERA and a nice 1.14 WHIP after 26 IP. LH bats continue to hit him pretty hard (.283 BA, .733 OPS) and he’s also been helped by a friendly 26% hit rate and massive 83% strand rate. His pitch mix and velocity are not significantly different from last year’s 4.71 ERA and BAA of .278 so expect a serious regression in his numbers soon. Overpriced pitcher versus underpriced pitcher. Play: Kansas City +144 (Risking 2 units).
Norm Hitzges
April 26, 2011
NBA
·******** Lakers/New Orleans Under 183
2-3 -2.15* Overall:* 78-90 -26.65
·******** Double Play—Atlanta/SD Under 6.5
·******** St.Louis /Houston Under 7
·******** San Francisco/Pittsburgh Under 7.5
·******** Arizona/Philly Under 8
·******** San Diego* +105 vs Atlanta
·******** White Sox +120 vs NYY
·******** Minnesota/TB Under 8
·******** Oakland -115 vs LA
April 26, 2011
NBA
·******** Lakers/New Orleans Under 183
2-3 -2.15* Overall:* 78-90 -26.65
·******** Double Play—Atlanta/SD Under 6.5
·******** St.Louis /Houston Under 7
·******** San Francisco/Pittsburgh Under 7.5
·******** Arizona/Philly Under 8
·******** San Diego* +105 vs Atlanta
·******** White Sox +120 vs NYY
·******** Minnesota/TB Under 8
·******** Oakland -115 vs LA
