Malinsky March Madness
4* #532 NORTH CAROLINA over MIAMI F.
Our timing was obviously wrong in bucking North Carolina on Saturday
? The Tar Heels played with the best chemistry they had shown since
A.C.C. play began, especially on the defensive end, and they
controlled a good Wake Forest team wire-to-wire on the road. But in
suffering that loss we were able to see the elements to get in play
here, on a night in which they were be some special emotions as a
part of the proceedings. And especially against a most vulnerable
opponent.
The pieces came together well for Roy Williams on Saturday. Larry
Drew II played with a lot of confidence, with eight assists vs. only
three turnovers. John Henson showed his athletic ability up front
with five blocked shots in only 21 minutes. David Wear returned to
the lineup and Tyler Zeller continued to play his way back into
rhythm, with those two combining for 12 points and five rebounds in
26 minutes off the bench. And Leslie McDonald broke out with 16
points in 23 minutes. That meant that steady veterans Deon Thompson,
Marcus Ginyard and Williams Graves could be who they are, good role
players, but not necessarily stars, and they can be excellent ?glue?
guys when the others are contributing. Now it is Senior Night for
Thompson and Ginyard, which brings a lot of added emotion and
intensity, particularly with this being potential win #2,000 for the
storied program. And the players have not hesitated to talk about
what that means.
Miami is the ideal fodder. That 18-10 record means nothing, the
result of an extremely soft non-conference schedule, and the
Hurricanes have taken an 0-7 collar on the A.C.C. road. The hope for
Frank Haith was that they could develop over the course of the season
as FR starters Durand Scott and Garrius Adams gained experience, but
in going 4-10 in the A.C.C. two of the wins have come by a basket or
less and a chemistry has not developed. Points have been very hard to
come by, with only Dwayne Collins (11.8) and James Dews (11.1)
cracking double figures in conference play, and even with the
presence of Collins inside they have lost the battle of the boards by
-1.7 per game. Those A.C.C. road losses have come by an average of
11.1 per game, despite not having played at Duke, and the only time
they stayed within this spread was at Boston College back in the
first week of December. They do not have the polish or poise to
handle tonight?s atmosphere, and with Carolina bringing a new
confidence to the table this one gets decided much more easily than
the oddsmakers are calling for.
5* #541 LOUISVILLE over MARQUETTE
On Sunday we noted just how strong Rick Pitino has been in this role
in turning that 4* Louisville ticket at Connecticut ? how about a
10-1 ATS run as Big East road underdogs in the month of February the
last 3+ seasons? That pattern brings two prime elements into play ?
first, the fact that this program has the moxie to not be intimidated
by a hostile environment, many teams even player better in such
settings; second, the fact that Pitino continues to be a master of
developing his team over the course of the season, getting them to be
at their best when it matters most. That all continues here.
Both of these teams need to play with energy to be successful, but
there is a monstrous gap in the fuel gauge for this setting.
Marquette comes off of a week that was truly one for the annals of
college basketball, with three consecutive overtime wins on the Big
East road. But while those W?s look great, the reality is that Buzz
Williams may be left with a gassed-out squad tonight. His paper-thin
rotation has been pushed to the max, with Jimmy Butler going 127
minutes, Darius Johnson-Odom 118 and Lazar Hayward 118, Maurice Acker
112, and David Cubillan 108 in those wins. With only one day off
since Sunday?s exhausting grinder at Seton Hall, a game in which the
bench contributed only four points and zero redounds, there is not
much chance to regenerate any energy, and Williams knows what he is
up against - <i>?It?s been a draining week physically, mentally, and
emotionally.?</i>
Louisville has also had only one day off since Sunday?s win, but note
how different the setting is for the Cardinals. The starters played
only 113 minutes that afternoon (contrast that to the 209 from
Marquette), while the bench contributed 40 points, 12 rebounds and
nine assists. Pitino can use his much deeper and fresher rotation to
wear Marquette down tonight, and the Golden Eagles have absolutely no
answer inside for Samardo Samuels, who has averaged 15.7 points and
6.5 rebounds in the tough Big East. Not only does Marquette lack the
size to cope with him, but there are also precious few front-court
fouls to give, so look for Louisville to attack the basket
relentlessly here, which leads this game to break open over the
course of 40 minutes, a timetable too long for the Golden Eagles.
5* #546 LOYOLA over CLEVELAND STATE
Cleveland State is a young team without a senior starter, had a
losing regular-season record, and won two of 18 Horizon League games
by more than 11 points. In conference play they were out-shot from
the field by the opponents, out-shot from beyond the arc, and badly
beaten in rebounding (-3.9 per game). Now they face an opponent that
brings particular matchup problems, and yet are being assigned a
pointspread in double figures. It does not add up in our book, and
with this underdog bringing the knowledge that they are more than
capable of winning the game outright, we can get in play.
These two met twice during the regular season, with Cleveland State
escaping 62-57 on this court and 59-56 on the road, and escape is the
right word. Loyola led 49-40 with 9:00 remaining before losing at
home, and on this court the Ramblers led 55-52 with 1:36 remaining
before a 10-2 Viking run the rest of the way turned it around. Note
not just the closeness of those games, but also the tempo at which
they were played ? State struggles hard enough to get margins even
when getting out into the open court and running, but with this game
likely to be no different from the other two in terms of pacing the
pointspread becomes even more of a mountain. Loyola controlled the
boards by a dominating 72-52 count in the earlier meetings, with the
ultimate difference on the scoreboard coming down to long range
shooting ? the Vikings knocked down 17-43 triples, to just 9-27 for
the Ramblers. But considering that Loyola made 35.9 percent from
3-point range in Horizon play, and Cleveland State 35.5, if anything
the numbers should regress more towards their proper levels.
As is so often the case, we are not in love with pressing teams at
conference tourney time. When an opponent gets a third look at those
tactics it is so much easier to put a game plan together, and note
that the Ramblers have already shown the ability to make those
adjustments ? they went from 17 turnovers in the first meeting to 13
the second time around. Jim Whitesell?s team now gets a third crack,
and because of how they seemingly had each of the first two meetings
in hand we expect an entirely different attitude from what we would
normally find in this price range. They are not just looking to hang
around here, but instead to finish the deal, and that element of the
matchup is not going to change on the third look, largely because the
Vikings are not any bigger or stronger up front now than they were
then. This is anybody?s game to win outright, and the chance to buck
such a limited team as this big of a favorite does not come along
often, especially when all that favorite is looking for is the ?W?,
and not any kind of margin anyway.