Dave Malinsky
Top of the Ticket
Georgia State Panthers(+18) over FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES
4* #715 GEORGIA STATE over FLORIDA STATE
When we see a Side this high and a Total this low the oddsmakers are calling for extreme dominance by the favorite. We can not put this matchup anywhere near that projection, and in a slowly-paced affair with intense defense from both sides, points are so hard to come by that this pointspread is a mountain to overcome. To view from a different angle, based on the current Side/Total, the oddsmakers are calling for Florida State to score slightly more than 57 percent of all of the game?s points. That is a plateau that we rarely find, and the Seminoles will be hard-pressed to make that happen. They are going to be able to grind out some wins because of their superb defense, but offense is another matter entirely ? they are averaging a hideous 18 turnovers per game, and are -39 in assist to turnover ratio, while only knocking down 64.2 percent of their free throws. In five of six lined games they have failed to reach 65 points. Now that offense will show up out of sync in playing for the first time in nine days, and with bigger games on deck (they host Auburn Thursday, then the A.C.C. opener at Georgia Tech on Sunday) do not look for Leonard Hamilton to be margin-conscious here. Georgia State will have its own struggles on offense, but Rod Barnes has a veteran roster that has had a couple of seasons to buy into his defensive principles, and with four SR?s in the starting lineup, and two more in key spots in the rotation, it shows ? they have yet to allow any team to score more than 70 points, holding the opposition to 37.4 percent from the field and 23.3 from 3-point range. This is also a much easier adjustment than the usual one-off road trip, since they have been in Tallahassee since Saturday, losing a 60-58 heat-breaker to Florida A&M down the street on Sunday afternoon. Having battled F.S.U. to the wire in a 62-57 home loss LY they bring the confidence level of knowing that they can compete against this opponent, and their tenacity on defense keeps this much closer than the market projections.