Statsystems report 11/2
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/2
NBA & NCAA COLLEDGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
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***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - NBA & CFB *****
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Each day here in our Stat/Systems Report we will list the Top - Angles, Stats and Situational Trends for up-coming games, including all the Key - ATS, Over/Unders, Money-Line, First Half ATS Top Trends including Over/Unders, Coaches ATS & Over/Unders and Teaser Line Trends, along with all your high percentage Super Situation Systems.
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• STAN THE MAN CONTINUES TO ROLL!
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Stan has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 34-7-2 (82.9%) ATS Run, along with an impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) roll in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered in Thirty-Five of the last Thirty-Eight, and Sixty-Nine of Seventy-Three Weeks Dating back to Last Season.
Jump Starting the Week Monday, The Man delivered with his *5-Star (Dallas/NY Giants Over 23) - "NFL First/Half Total System of the Week" - Which told us to: PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total, (where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5) - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. 46-16, 74.2% over the last 10 seasons.
--Result: Eli Manning rebounded from two early interceptions to throw for 306 yards and four touchdowns, leading the New York Giants to a 41-35 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The victory is the fourth in a row for New York, which moved into sole possession of first place in the NFC East. Dallas, meanwhile, was looking to turn its season around, but lost quarterback Tony Romo to a broken left collarbone in the second quarter with the Giants leading 17-10.
Stan opened the NBA season Tuesday, dishing-out an easy *5-Star selection with the Celtics taking down LeBron and his Heat in Boston. He didn't "Rest on his Laurels" Wednesday, winning both the side (San Francisco +129) and Over the total (5.5) in World Series action! The 33-year vet took the night off Thursday in the NBA but scored once again as Matt Cain silenced the Rangers for 7 2/3 innings and Edgar Renteria went 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI, as the Giants took control of the World Series by shutting out Texas, 9-0, in Game 2 at AT&T Park.
Kicking off the afternoon Saturday, The Man extended his CFB record for the season to 18-4-1, (81.8%), going 3-1 on the day! Getting things started Stan delivered another *5-Star CFB - "AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK" - PLAY AGAINST: Any college favorite that beat Notre Dame as an underdog in its last game if it beat the spread by 10 or more points and is facing a sub .600 opponent today. ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 11-0-1 (100%).
Stan Told All that Called - "Like so many other FBS schools, the Naval Academy has scheduled the likes of the Blue Devils (+13) as their Homecoming opponent... "And that’s just fine, this one gets better-looking with every passing hour, we suggest grabbing all of those beautiful points!"
--Result: Sean Renfree scored three touchdowns to lead the Duke Blue Devils to a 34-31 victory over the Navy Midshipmen in a non- conference tussle at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Renfree completed 28-of-30 passes for 314 yards and one touchdown for Duke, and added two more scores on the ground. Conner Vernon hauled in five passes for 90 yards and one touchdown.
In SEC play The Man cashed with his *5-Star "INCREEDIBLE STATS OF THE WEEK" (Florida +3). Which was also found in Saturday's Stat/Systems Report. HC Urban Meyer: Is 19-2 SU and 17-3-1 ATS when his troops play with rest, including 6-0 SU and ATS when not favored. But the clincher comes to us from our trust worthy data base - UGA’s field General Richt is now 0-4 ATS following a double-digit victory versus an opponent off three losses, while the Gators are an impressive 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%) as conference underdogs.
--Result: The Florida Gators snuck by the Georgia Bulldogs 34-31 after an overtime field goal by kicker Chas Henry in an SEC showdown at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium. Trey Burton ran for 110 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries for Florida, while quarterback John Brantley threw for 193 yards and one interception on 16-of-25 passing in the win.
Rounding out the afternoon with a *5-Star Late Information Play UCF (-7.5). Stan said - "I've had my eye on Central Florida for a few weeks now but didn’t quite think they were far enough along to cover a 23-point spread against Rice a Saturday ago, (the Knights got there with a 41-14 drubbing of the Owls) and I think they’re worth a look here!"
The Man went on to say - "Yes, the Pirates have been raking in the cash under new coach Ruffi n McNeill, going 5-2 ATS this season, including a 3-0 SU and ATS run heading into this skirmish... "However, George O’Leary’s crew is also on a 3-0 SU and ATS run – and has held three of its last four opponents to a season-low in yards per game... "That’s the key: a 183 YPG better defense is the edge in this contest and UCF owns it"... "In a battle for top honors in the C-USA East, "look for UCF to improve to... now 7-2 ATS in its last nine appearances as home chalk!"
--Result: Ronnie Weaver ran for 180 yards and scored a pair of touchdowns to lead the UCF Knights to a 49-35 victory over the East Carolina Pirates in a Conference-USA tussle at Bright House Networks Stadium. Jeffrey Godfrey completed an efficient 8-of-12 passes for 159 yards and threw two touchdowns under center in the win for UCF. Latavius Murray gained 47 yards rushing and scored three times with just seven totes.
Sunday; Stan Delivered with his ‘Sixth Consecutive Winning Week of Sports Action’ - Going 9-3 (75%) Overall! Getting things started - saw his NFL - "AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK" with Miami plus the one (in most places if you took the time to shop) win their four straight road affairs! NOTE: "All these Super Situational Systems, Incredible Stats and Totally Awesome Angles can be found in 'The Man's daily Stat/Systems Reports.”
"The Dolphins take to the road where they’ve made a living under HC Tony Sparano 10-6 SU and 13-3 ATS when taking points, including a spotless 8-0 ATS mark off a spread victory.... “Tuff Tony is also 8-3 straight-up and an 'AWESOME' 11-0 ATS as a road underdog from Game Four on out!”
--Result: Dan Carpenter kicked five field goals and Ricky Williams added a fourth-quarter touchdown, as the Miami Dolphins beat the Cincinnati Bengals, 22-14, at Paul Brown Stadium. Chad Henne completed 24-of-37 tosses for 217 yards and one interception for the Dolphins, who have yet to lose on the road in four tries this season.
Wrapping up the day with his Early Top *5-Star Selection with the Detroit Lions, (and once again "Thanks to all that called and signed up) Stan wrote: You’re probably wondering why a team that’s 1-5 and hand the football to a second-year QB who hasn’t played since Week 1 because of injury is laying points against an opponent that’s 4-3 and handing the ball to a quarterback who’s a borderline Hall of Famer. Here’s the easy explanation: The Lions are much better than their 1-5 record indicates, and Washington isn’t nearly as good as its 4-3 record shows!
Detroit’s five losses – including a season-opening 19-14 loss at Chicago that would’ve been a victory had WR Calvin Johnson’s game-winning TD not been ridiculously overturned – have been by margins of 5, 3, 14, 2 and 8 points. Only in a 24-10 setback at Minnesota were the Lions truly dominated.
Meanwhile, the Redskins’ four wins over the Cowboys, Eagles, Packers and Bears all come with an asterisk. Dallas had a game-winning TD pass on the final play negated by a penalty. Philadelphia lost red-hot starting QB Michael Vick to an injury early in the first quarter and he never returned. Green Bay had a game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation bounce off the upright (Washington won in overtime on a field goal). And last week, Bears QB Jay Cutler tossed four interceptions (all to DeAngelo Hall).
According to our database a one-win team laying points into a winning outfit is 11-3 SU and ATS in this role since 1990, including a spotless 9-0 SU and ATS record minus three points or less. With tech support on our side, we turn to the stat sheet where the Redskins have been out-gained in every game they’ve played under new HC Mike Shanahan, allowing season-high or 2ndhigh yards to five opponents.
Finally; throw in the fact the Lions are coming off a bye and Washington has its bye on deck, this sets up perfectly for Detroit, which is on ATS runs of 6-1 overall, 4-0-1 as a home favorite of less than a field goal and 5-1 in October affairs. Meanwhile, the Redskins are 6-19-3 ATS in their last 28 games against losing teams and 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 when playing on artificial turf. “Hogs slop it up again today!”
--Result: Making his first start since suffering a second-degree shoulder separation in the season-opener, Matthew Stafford threw for four touchdowns to lead Detroit past Washington, 37-25, at Ford Field. Stafford completed 26-of-45 passes for 212 yards and connected with Calvin Johnson for three TDs and Brandon Pettigrew once for the Lions, who have won two of three after starting the year with four straight losses.
“Who will cash at the betting window on Tuesday, be sure to get all your winners each and every day "Where the Winning Never Stops!" Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 "You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
NOTE: All New Website Coming Soon!
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*** SUNBELT CONFERENCE TAKES CENTER STAGE ***
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The Sun Belt Conference will showcase two up and coming teams on Tuesday night when the Arkansas State Red Wolves play host to the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in a pivotal league matchup at ASU Stadium in Jonesboro. The Blue Raiders have dominated Arkansas State over the years, winning nine of the 11 previous meetings, but both wins for the Red Wolves have occurred at home.
The Blue Raiders snapped a two-game slide the last time they were in action, as they defeated ULM, 38-10. It was just the third win of the season for MTU, which is now 2-1 in conference. Following this contest, the Blue Raiders will get an extended break, as the team will not return to the field until November 13th when it entertains North Texas. As for the Red Wolves, they opened the year with four losses in their first five games, but since then the team has slowly improved as it has collected wins in two of its last three contests. The most recent victory was a 37-16 decision over Florida Atlantic, pushing ASU's conference mark to 3-2.
The Blue Raiders scored 28 first-half points against ULM and never looked back, as they went on to defeat the Warhawks by 28 points. Middle Tennessee leaned on its ground attack, which churned out 244 yards and two scores. Leading the way was Phillip Tanner, who rumbled for 73 yards and a touchdown, while quarterback Dwight Dasher contributed 66 yards on 14 totes. Dasher was also effective with his arm, throwing for 219 yards and two scores on 11-of-19 passing. One of his touchdown passes went to Tyler Mason, who finished the game with 93 yards on just three catches.
Throughout the season coach Rick Stockstill's team has relied heavily on the ground game, which has averaged 171.1 ypg, and out of the 23 touchdowns posted by the offense, 18 have come via the run. Tanner has been the most productive cog out of the backfield, as the tailback has rushed for 453 yards and team- best six touchdowns. D.D. Kyles has helped out as well, rumbling for 308 yards, while Dasher has found the end zone four times on the ground. The surprising thing about Dasher's season however, is that his two TD passes against ULM were his first two on the year, as he has struggled through the air, throwing for just 564 yards, while also tossing six interception.
The success of the Blue Raider offense has been the downfall for the defense, as coach Stockstill's unit has found no answers on how to stop the run. Opponents are currently producing 178.9 ypg against Middle Tennessee, and it seems that this could be a problem for the remainder of the season. Fortunately the unit has done a respectable job against the pass, holding teams to under 200.0 ypg, while also applying adequate pressure, recording 20 sacks to this point.
Things were backwards for the defense against ULM, as the Blue Raiders did an outstanding job against the run, while faltering against the pass. The likely explanation is that the Warhawks fell in a deep hole and needed to climb their way out through the air. Regardless, coach Stockstill's squad held ULM to minus-four net rushing yards, which is an achievement in any situation. Not all was good however, as the unit was torched for 273 passing yards, but softening the blow of that large number was the two interceptions collected by MTU's secondary. The Blue Raiders forced three total turnovers in the win, giving the team just eight takeaways through seven games.
The Red Wolves come into this matchup with 16 rushing touchdowns on the year, which is a solid number, and would lead one to believe they do most of their work with their rushing attack. However, that is not the case for ASU. Coach Steve Roberts' team has enjoyed moderate success rushing the ball, but the its bread and butter is the pass, which is under the direction of Ryan Aplin, who has completed 60.5 percent of his throws for 2,084 yards and 13 touchdowns against just seven interceptions this season. Dwayne Frampton has burst on the scene to become Aplin's favorite target, as the receiver leads the team in receptions (46), receiving yards (471) and receiving touchdowns (four).
The last time Arkansas State was on the field the team went into the fourth quarter on the wrong end of a 16-9 score. However, Aplin rallied his teammates and led them to 28 straight points, and a 21-point victory. Aplin threw for 234 yards and one touchdown in the win, but also led the ground game for ASU, rushing for 64 yards and another score.
What has hurt the Red Wolves this season has been their horrendous defensive play. Arkansas State is allowing 198.5 rushing ypg and shockingly against the pass, the unit has been much worse. Through eight games, ASU has allowed 19 touchdowns through the air, while opponents are averaging a robust 254.4 passing ypg.
Thankfully for coach Roberts, his defense had one of its better showings on the season the last time out, holding Florida Atlantic to 319 yards and two touchdowns. Once again the problem for the defense came against the pass, as the Owls finished with 227 yards, while collecting both of their scores through the air.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Arkansas St by 3.5; O/U 56
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Arkansas St -5.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Arkansas St by -4.72
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--ARKANSAS ST is 9-27 ATS (-20.7 Units) off a home win since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 14.6, OPPONENT 34.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 17.7, OPPONENT 31.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 18-34 ATS (-19.4 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 18.7, OPPONENT 32.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) off a home win against a conference rival since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 14.4, OPPONENT 35.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIDDLE TENN ST is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIDDLE TENN ST 40.9, OPPONENT 19.6 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--ARKANSAS ST is 23-52 against the 1rst half line (-34.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 9.8, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 18-44 against the 1rst half line (-30.4 Units) in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 7.6, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 4*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 14-36 against the 1rst half line (-25.6 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 8.3, OPPONENT 17.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 22-42 against the 1rst half line (-24.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 9.9, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 25-44 against the 1rst half line (-23.4 Units) after playing a conference game since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 8.3, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 19-37 against the 1rst half line (-21.7 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 8.6, OPPONENT 16.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--ARKANSAS ST is 11-28 against the 1rst half line (-19.8 Units) in November games since 1992.
The average score was ARKANSAS ST 8.4, OPPONENT 15.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - A home team vs. the money line (ARKANSAS ST) - poor rushing team (100-140 RY/G) against an average rushing defense (140-190 RY/G) after 7+ games, after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games.
(24-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (82.8%, +18.8 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -104
The average score in these games was: Team 29.9, Opponent 20.3 (Average point differential = +9.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0, +0 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-1, +7.2 units).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (16-2, +17.1 units).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (40-14, +26.3 units).
--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ARKANSAS ST) - after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games, in November games.
(35-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (30-17 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average score in these games was: Team 26.4, Opponent 20.6 (Average point differential = +5.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 18 (39.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (57-29).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (85-58).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MIDDLE TENN ST) - average rushing team (+/- 40 RY/G) against a poor team who is outrushed by 50+ YPG, in conference games.
(54-25 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.4%, +26.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.2
The average first half score in these games was: Team 14.3, Opponent 12.4 (Average first half point differential = +1.9)
The situation's record this season is: (1-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-12).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (25-17).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (66-46).
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*** HAWKS LOOK TO OPEN SEASON 4-0 ***
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Despite finishing with the Eastern Conference’s third-best record last season and returning the same starting five, the Atlanta Hawks aren’t receiving much attention in the NBA - or even their own division. The overlooked Hawks try to open with four consecutive victories Tuesday night when they visit the Cleveland Cavaliers, who expect to have Mo Williams available for the first time this season. Atlanta has been sort of an afterthought in the Southeast Division with all the hoopla surrounding Miami’s Big Three, not to mention defending division champion Orlando and John Wall’s debut in Washington as the top overall pick.
The Hawks haven’t concerned themselves with these storylines, though, and are the only undefeated team remaining in the East. “We were the third seed last year for a reason,” said Jamal Crawfor , who had 15 points in Saturday’s 99-95 win over the Wizards. “But those other teams are getting the hype for a reason. I just hope we’ll continue to shine under the radar - and go into the playoffs the same way.”
Crawford was one of five players to score at least 12 points in rookie coach Larry Drew’s new motion offense in the home opener. Joe Johnson led the way with 25, including 14 in the fourth quarter to help the Hawks build a nine-point lead after entering the period with the score tied. Johnson made 5 of 8 shots in the final quarter after going 5 of 15 in the first three. Johnson and the Hawks, off to their best start since opening 6-0 two years ago, have lost 17 of 22 against the Cavaliers since 2004-05, but they hope to change that trend following the departure of LeBron James.
As expected, Cleveland is searching for an identity in the post-James era. The Cavaliers pulled off a surprising 95-87 win over Boston in the opener but struggled after halftime in losing their last two. One night after being outscored 31-17 in the third quarter of a loss at Toronto, Cleveland blew a 14-point halftime lead by getting outscored 31-15 in the third and lost 107-104 to Sacramento. “The third quarter has been terrible for us,” coach Byron Scott said. “Having a 14-point lead, I thought we took a big exhale instead of coming out with the other attitude of going up by 20.
“We have a lot to learn about ourselves as a basketball team. It’s going to take some time.” Scott hopes having Williams back on the court will provide leadership and offense to help his team get on track. Williams, an All-Star in 2009, was sidelined for much of training camp and the exhibition season with a groin injury. He was second on the Cavs behind James last season with 15.8 points and 5.3 assists per game.
Cavaliers forward Antawn Jamison did not practice Monday because of some soreness in his left knee and could miss Tuesday’s game. Jamison has come off the bench and is averaging 6.3 points. The Cavaliers went 3-1 against Atlanta in 2009-10 with the loss coming in the regular-season finale. James and Williams both sat out that game for Cleveland, while Johnson, Crawford, Mike Bibby, Al Horford and Josh Smith rested for the Hawks, who snapped a five-game losing streak in the series.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Cleveland by 1; O/U 196
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Atlanta -2.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Cleveland -1.13
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 45-23 ATS (+19.7 Units) in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 94.1, OPPONENT 92.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 43-76 ATS (-40.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 90.7, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 5*)
--ATLANTA is 34-15 ATS (+17.5 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 100.7, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--ATLANTA is 28-11 OVER (+15.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 102.1, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--ATLANTA is 52-35 UNDER (+13.5 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 94.6, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--ATLANTA is 17-5 OVER (+11.5 Units) in road games against Central division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 98.1, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 67-43 against the 1rst half line (+19.7 Units) in home games after a loss by 6 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 48.5, OPPONENT 44.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 33-14 against the 1rst half line (+17.6 Units) in home games after a close loss by 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.0, OPPONENT 45.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 18-30 against the 1rst half line (-15.0 Units) versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.9, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 4-16 against the 1rst half line (-13.6 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 51.9, OPPONENT 50.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 18-7 against the 1rst half line (+10.3 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.3, OPPONENT 47.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--ATLANTA is 44-76 against the 1rst half line (-39.6 Units) versus teams who average 48 or less rebounds/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was ATLANTA 46.9, OPPONENT 48.4 - (Rating = 5*)
--ATLANTA is 36-53 against the 1rst half line (-22.3 Units) after playing a home game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 47.6, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 33-49 against the 1rst half line (-20.9 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 48.1, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--CLEVELAND is 62-33 OVER (+25.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.4, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 28-9 OVER (+18.1 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 55.4, OPPONENT 50.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--CLEVELAND is 30-12 OVER (+16.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 56.8, OPPONENT 49.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 34-16 OVER (+16.4 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 52.9, OPPONENT 50.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 30-13 OVER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53, OPPONENT 50.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--CLEVELAND is 31-17 OVER (+12.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was CLEVELAND 53.9, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--ATLANTA is 30-10 OVER (+19 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 51.8, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--ATLANTA is 31-16 UNDER (+13.4 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 44.7, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--ATLANTA is 14-3 UNDER (+10.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ATLANTA 45.8, OPPONENT 46.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Home teams (CLEVELAND) - off a upset loss as a favorite, first 6 games of the season, playoff team from last season who lost 4 or more of their last 5 games.
(34-9 since 1996.) (79.1%, +24.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (34-9)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 5.5
The average score in these games was: Team 103.3, Opponent 91.9 (Average point differential = +11.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (ATLANTA) - team that had a good record last season (60% to 75%) playing a team that had a winning record, after 1 or more consecutive wins.
(31-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.6%, +20 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 47 (Average first half point differential = +2.4)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-3).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (66-46).
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Experience is what this business is all about, and good money can be made if one has the right connections. Stan 'The Man' prides himself on uncovering the edge that gives his customers the ability to beat the sports books on a consistent basis. Stan is a full time Expert Handicapper that can help you consistently beat the books. With any package that you purchase it is fully guaranteed that you show a profit, or he'll extend your service at no charge. If you have any questions about our services call 1-800 -351-4640, “You’ll be real glad you did!” -Stan
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*** WIZARDS' WALL HAS SPRAINED ANKLE, EXPECTS TO PLAY ***
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The Washington Wizards and the Philadelphia 76ers had the first two picks in this year’s draft, and both rookies are being counted on to help turn around their franchises, but only one has broken into the starting lineup. In a matchup between winless teams, John Wall makes his debut in front of the home crowd at the Verizon Center on Tuesday night when the Wizards take on Evan Turner and the 76ers. Wall was the first overall pick in the draft by Washington and Philadelphia took Turner at No. 2. However, Turner’s NBA career has begun with him coming off the bench, averaging 8.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 3.3 assists.
While Turner is playing 27.7 minutes per game, Wall is averaging 38.5 and he’s started both games for the Wizards. He scored 28 points in a 99-95 loss to Atlanta on Saturday, including 10 in the fourth quarter. After struggling with his shot in a season-opening 112-83 loss to Orlando on Thursday, Wall went 9 of 17 from the floor Saturday and added nine assists and five rebounds. Against the Magic, he shot 6 of 19.
Despite the winless start, Saunders, who replaced Eddie Jordan as coach, was pleased to see the improvement Saturday following the loss to Orlando. The Wizards shot 37.2 percent against the Magic but improved to 50 percent against Atlanta. They were close throughout until the Hawks pulled away late. “I told our guys I’m never satisfied with losses, but I was satisfied with our competitive spirit,” Saunders said.
It’s been an equally rough start for Doug Collins, in his first season coaching Philadelphia. After his team was competitive in a three-point loss to the Hawks on Friday, the 76ers fell 99-86 to Indiana on Saturday. Elton Brand had 12 points and 10 rebounds but shot 5 of 16. Louis Williams scored 18 points to lead the 76ers, who had a 36-23 advantage early in the second quarter.
“We had a horrible stretch,” Collins said. “It’s not our defense, it’s our offense. We try to do too much on our own. Turn the ball over. Bad shots. They run out and score.” Collins said last week his decision to start Turner off the bench was due in part to a lack of chemistry with him in the starting lineup. However, Collins could be re-thinking that notion given the low production from his current starters, who are averaging 45.7 points. Turner had nine points and seven rebounds in 33 minutes Saturday after being held scoreless on five shot attempts Friday.
The 76ers are trying to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2001-02 when they lost their first five. However, Philadelphia dropped all three games against Washington last season, including both visits to the Verizon Center. Washington is still waiting for the return of Gilbert Arenas, who was suspended 50 games last season for a felony gun conviction. Arenas hasn’t played in the Wizards’ first two games because of a right ankle sprain. He remains day to day.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Washington -3; O/U 198
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Washington -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Philadelphia -2.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 60-87 ATS (-35.7 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 95.6, OPPONENT 97.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--WASHINGTON is 28-48 ATS (-24.8 Units) after 2 consecutive division games since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 93.7, OPPONENT 99.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 92.5, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 23-42 ATS (-23.2 Units) in home games after 2 straight games with 10 or less offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 98.2, OPPONENT 98.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.5, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 99.2, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 94.6, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 56-35 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 95.8, OPPONENT 97.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) after a game with 15 or less assists over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 97.1, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 98.1, OPPONENT 99.8 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--WASHINGTON is 69-44 OVER (+20.6 Units) in home games versus good pressure defensive teams - forcing >=16 turnovers/game since 1996.
The average score was WASHINGTON 100.6, OPPONENT 98.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 52-30 UNDER (+19 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.1, OPPONENT 101.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 44-27 UNDER (+14.3 Units) versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 95.2, OPPONENT 101.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 57-39 UNDER (+14.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 96.2, OPPONENT 103.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 93.4, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 24-8 OVER (+15.2 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 98.5, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 29-48 against the 1rst half line (-23.8 Units) when the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 44.7, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--WASHINGTON is 24-41 against the 1rst half line (-21.1 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.9, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 16-33 against the 1rst half line (-20.3 Units) when the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 47.8, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 64-42 against the 1rst half line (+17.8 Units) when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%) since 1996.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 50.5, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--PHILADELPHIA is 10-23 against the 1rst half line (-15.3 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHILADELPHIA 47.9, OPPONENT 52.5 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--WASHINGTON is 46-27 UNDER (+16.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.4, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 59-39 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 47.5, OPPONENT 51.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--WASHINGTON is 48-29 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.6, OPPONENT 49.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--WASHINGTON is 50-31 UNDER (+15.9 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 46.9, OPPONENT 49.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--WASHINGTON is 23-12 UNDER (+9.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was WASHINGTON 49.1, OPPONENT 50.8 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHILADELPHIA) - in a game involving two teams who had bad records (25% to 40%) last season, after 2 or more consecutive losses.
(24-5 since 1996.) (82.8%, +18.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 101.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48, Opponent 49.8 (Total first half points scored = 97.8)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (7-2).
--PLAY ON - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off a road loss.
(36-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.5%, +21.7 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 51.4, Opponent 48.7 (Average first half point differential = +2.7)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (18-8).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (119-87).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season.
(119-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.3%, +39.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 196
The average score in these games was: Team 95.7, Opponent 97.4 (Total points scored = 193.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 94 (49.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (77-47).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (242-173).
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*** CELTICS LOOK TO KEEP PISTONS WINLESS ***
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As good as he was distributing the ball last season, Rajon Rondo has been even better this fall. The fifth-year point guard hopes to continue that trend as the visiting Boston Celtics try to keep the Detroit Pistons winless Tuesday night. Rondo was fourth in the NBA with 9.8 assists per game in 2009-10, helping Boston reach the NBA finals, and he’s leading the league by a wide margin in that category this season at 16.7. He had a career-best 24 assists - four shy of Bob Cousy’s franchise record from 1959 - along with 10 points and 10 rebounds to record his fifth career triple-double in a 105-101 win over New York on Friday.
Rondo’s leadership on the floor helped Boston top 90 points for the first time this season. Paul Pierce had 25 points and 14 rebounds while Kevin Garnett added 24 points and 10 boards. “If you’re not ready, he’ll embarrass you. He’ll hit you right in the head with the ball,” said Garnett, who shot 12 of 17 after going a combined 7 for 19 in the previous two games. “He’ll see something you didn’t see, but he’ll make you see it.”
Boston will try to put up similar offensive numbers against Detroit, which has given up at least 101 points in every game this season. However, the Celtics probably will be without Shaquille O’Neal, who had 10 points and seven rebounds in 23 minutes Friday but suffered a knee bruise. He missed his second straight practice Monday and is unlikely to play Tuesday. While averaging 20.7 minutes in three starts, O’Neal is averaging 8.7 points and 5.3 rebounds. Jermaine O’Neal, who missed Friday’s game with a sore left knee, returned to practice Monday and will make the trip. Coach Doc Rivers said he could see more playing time after conditioning issues limited him to 25 minutes the first two games.
Boston will try to extend the Pistons’ worst start since opening 0-4 in 1999-2000. The Celtics have won seven of the last nine meetings, including four of five in the Motor City. Detroit blew a 21-point, third-quarter lead against Chicago on Saturday in a 101-91 defeat. Ben Gordon scored all 21 of his points in the first half and Detroit shot 4 of 21 in the fourth quarter while being outscored 34-9. It was an especially difficult defeat after losing 105-104 at home to Oklahoma City the previous night on a late layup.
“Playing like strangers and not executing crisply really hurt us,” Coach John Kuester said after his team committed 18 turnovers for a second straight game. “We’re not taking care of the ball and remembering the things that we did in the first half.” Despite his poor second half Saturday, Gordon seems to be making early amends after averaging a career-low 13.8 points while battling injuries last season for Detroit - his first after being signed to a five-year, $55 million deal. Gordon has scored 53 points the last two games while shooting 61.5 percent.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 5; O/U 190
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -7.87
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 9-25 ATS (-18.5 Units) after a division game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 91.7, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--DETROIT is 8-23 ATS (-17.3 Units) in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 91.8, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--DETROIT is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in a home game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 89.8, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--DETROIT is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 92.0, OPPONENT 99.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--BOSTON is 43-24 ATS (+16.6 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 98.2, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 102.1, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 40-23 ATS (+14.7 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 95.7, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 100.5, OPPONENT 95.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 93-66 UNDER (+20.4 Units) vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making <=71% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 93.1, OPPONENT 90.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 66-43 OVER (+18.7 Units) in home games versus poor ball handling teams - committing >=16 turnovers/game since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 98.1, OPPONENT 90.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 24-9 UNDER (+14.1 Units) in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 91.6, OPPONENT 88.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 27-9 OVER (+17.1 Units) in road games when playing with 3 or more days rest since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 99, OPPONENT 103 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 26-12 UNDER (+12.8 Units) in road games off a home win over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 93.4, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 18-34 against the 1rst half line (-19.4 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 44.9, OPPONENT 52.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--DETROIT is 16-31 (-18.1 Units) against the 1rst half line after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 45.7, OPPONENT 51.4 - (Rating = 12)
--DETROIT is 9-23 (-16.3 Units) against the 1rst half line after 3 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DETROIT 45.7, OPPONENT 52.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 28-11 against the 1rst half line (+15.9 Units) when the first half total is 90.5 to 95.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.5, OPPONENT 43.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 40-25 (+12.5 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.5, OPPONENT 45.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--BOSTON is 41-28 against the 1rst half line (+10.2 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 48.8, OPPONENT 46.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DETROIT is 24-10 UNDER (+13.0 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus excellent teams - shooting >=46% with a defense of <=43% since 1996.
The average score was DETROIT 45.4, OPPONENT 44.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 69-40 UNDER (+25.0 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 48.6, OPPONENT 49.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 28-11 against the 1rst half line (+15.9 Units) when the first half total is 90.5 to 95.5 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 49.5, OPPONENT 43.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (BOSTON) - off a win against a division rival, team that had a winning record last season.
(33-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +18.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 49.8 (Average first half point differential = -2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (81-63).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (DETROIT) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season.
(119-71 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.6%, +40.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47, Opponent 49.1 (Total first half points scored = 96.1)
The situation's record this season is: (2-4).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (74-49).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (243-169).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (DETROIT) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season.
(119-72 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.3%, +39.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 196
The average score in these games was: Team 95.7, Opponent 97.4 (Total points scored = 193.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 94 (49.2% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (4-3).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (77-47).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (242-173).
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*** BEASLLEY NOT LIVING IN THE PAST ***
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Michael Beasley hoped to play a supporting role along side the Miami Heat’s new superstar trio this season. Instead, he’s trying to help the Minnesota Timberwolves improve on one of the worst seasons in franchise history. Beasley and his new team look to prevent his old Heat club from earning a fourth consecutive victory Tuesday night in Miami. After posting career highs with 14.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in his second NBA season with the Heat, Beasley wanted to stay with Miami as the club pursued LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade. However, by trading Beasley to Minnesota in the offseason for a pair of future second-round picks, the Heat were able to trim his $5 million salary and build the current cast around the three stars.
Despite a somewhat troubled two seasons in Miami, the second overall pick in 2008 is not living in the past. He’d rather focus on helping the Timberwolves bounce back from a 15-67 mark in 2009-10. “I don’t really worry about too much in the past,” said Beasley, averaging a team-leading 14.7 points for Minnesota. “The Miami Heat is in my past. The Timberwolves are my future. This is just another regular away game. This is a game we’ve got to win.” That could be tough for the Timberwolves, who look to avoid a 14th straight road loss since winning 91-88 at Miami on Feb. 23.
Though Beasley and Kevin Love (14.0 points per game, 13.0 rebounds) have played well through three games, Miami has not allowed a field goal to a starting forward in the last two contests. Allowing a league-low 80.8 points per game, the Heat have not given up more than 88 points in four games. “They use their length. They use their athletic ability,” Beasley said. “They’re using everything they’ve got. They’ve got two of the top five defenders in the NBA.”
Offensively, Miami might be closing in on achieving the successful balance it hoped for between James, Bosh and Wade. James scored 20 points, while Bosh added 18 and Wade 17 as the Heat shot 68 percent in the first half of Sunday’s 101-78 win at New Jersey. Wade is averaging 21.5 points and James 20.5 per game, while Bosh is coming off his highest scoring game with the Heat.
“The balance is what we are here together for, to have an opportunity to make the game easy on everyone and we’re doing it,” Wade said. “We’re playing great team basketball and we’re still not where we want to be, but we’re making sure everyone gets an opportunity.” Wade, who missed Miami’s home loss to Minnesota last season with a calf strain, has averaged 32.8 points and shot 48.4 percent during his last six games against the Timberwolves. He had 39 in the Heat’s 97-84 win at Minnesota in the teams’ most recent meeting April 3.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Miami by 16; O/U 194
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Miami -17
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Miami -15.96
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MIAMI is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.9, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 89.8, OPPONENT 95.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game since 1996.
The average score was MINNESOTA 89.0, OPPONENT 96.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 14-30 ATS (-19.0 Units) after a game with 65 or more rebounds since 1996.
The average score was MINNESOTA 98.8, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 97.3, OPPONENT 109.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 13-27 ATS (-16.7 Units) after 2 straight games giving up 10 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 95.4, OPPONENT 105.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 31-13 UNDER (+16.7 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.0, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 39-21 OVER (+15.9 Units) against Northwest division opponents since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 99.2, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 33-16 UNDER (+15.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 95.5, OPPONENT 91.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 11-0 UNDER (+11.0 Units) after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 92.3, OPPONENT 86.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 55-35 UNDER (+16.5 Units) in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) since 1996.
The average score was MINNESOTA 91.6, OPPONENT 100.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 19-8 OVER (+10.2 Units) in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 100.7, OPPONENT 109.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--MINNESOTA is 12-3 OVER (+8.7 Units) in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 102.1, OPPONENT 114.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 26-42 against the 1rst half line (-20.2 Units) as a home favorite vs. the 1rst half line over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 49.1, OPPONENT 47.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MIAMI is 15-31 against the 1rst half line (-19.1 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 47.9, OPPONENT 47.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 31-18 against the 1rst half line (+11.2 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 49.9, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 31-19 against the 1rst half line (+10.1 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 50.3, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--MIAMI is 25-14 against the 1rst half line (+9.6 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 51.2, OPPONENT 49.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--MINNESOTA is 26-49 against the 1rst half line (-27.9 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.0, OPPONENT 56.2 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 27-47 against the 1rst half line (-24.7 Units) after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.1, OPPONENT 55.8 - (Rating = 4*)
--MINNESOTA is 14-33 against the 1rst half line (-22.3 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 47.2, OPPONENT 56.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 9-28 against the 1rst half line (-21.8 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 48.1, OPPONENT 58.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 14-30 against the 1rst half line (-19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 47.6, OPPONENT 56.6 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MIAMI is 68-45 OVER (+18.5 Units) the 1rst half total off a road win by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 49.3, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--MINNESOTA is 53-35 UNDER (+14.5 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 46.6, OPPONENT 53.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 43-27 UNDER (+13.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 47.7, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 33-19 UNDER (+12.1 Units) the 1rst half total versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 45.7, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MINNESOTA is 13-2 OVER (+10.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a blowout loss by 15 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MINNESOTA 50.9, OPPONENT 60.8 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATION
---------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MIAMI) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in non-conference games.
(146-92 since 1996.) (61.3%, +44.8 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 194.7
The average score in these games was: Team 99.9, Opponent 98.1 (Total points scored = 197.9)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 104 (44.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (44-25).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (74-37).
__________________________________________
*** MAGIC VISIT THE NEW LOOK KNICKS ***
-------------------------------------------------------
The Orlando Magic cruised to three double-digit wins over the New York Knicks last season. They are expecting a tougher matchup with Amare Stoudemire having joined New York. The Magic and Knicks play the first of four meetings when they take the court at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night. Orlando shot 53.9 percent last season in sweeping the season series from New York for the first time since 2001-02. Dwight Howard averaged 22.7 points and 13.0 rebounds, and the Magic made 38 3-pointers.
The new-look Knicks now have Stoudemire, who went 11-1 in his career against Orlando with Phoenix. He has posted four straight double-doubles versus the Magic, averaging 23.3 points and 12.0 rebounds. “That’s going to be a big challenge for me,” backup center Marcin Gortat said. “I am really confident about defending him so if coach (Stan Van Gundy) really needs me, I’m definitely ready.”
The Magic have not played since they shot 30.4 percent in Friday’s 96-70 loss at Miami. It marked their worst shooting percentage since they finished at 30.4 percent Feb. 11, 2009, in an 82-73 loss to Denver. The poor effort resulted in an intense practice session in which Van Gundy focused on setting screens. He’s hoping it will help the Magic improve on their 25.0 percent 3-point shooting after they finished third in the league at 37.5 percent in 2009-10. “You gotta let it go, it’s the NBA,” guard Jameer Nelson said. “You win, you can’t get too high. You lose, you can’t get too low. Obviously, it’s game two, you have 80 left.”
One player looking forward to this trip is backup guard Chris Duhon, who spent the last two years starting for New York before singing a four-year deal with Orlando in the offseason. Duhon had only positive things to say about playing for the Knicks and at Madison Square Garden. “It’s a great arena, obviously the world’s most famous arena,” Duhon said. “Playing there was an experience you can’t put into words. When it’s rocking and the atmosphere is right, it’s a great place to play.”
That’s the kind of atmosphere the Knicks enjoyed in their home opener Saturday before they blew a late nine-point lead in a 100-95 loss to Portland. Wilson Chandler had 22 points and 16 boards off the bench while Stoudemire added 18 and five. “We gave them a run for their money and we didn’t play particularly well,” Stoudemire said. “We are going to be OK.” The Knicks haven’t dropped their first two home games since beginning 0-3 at MSG in 2006-07.
The Knicks are starting two rookies in Russian center Timofey Mozgov and second-round pick Landry Fields as well as newcomers Stoudemire and point guard Raymond Felton. The lack of familiarity has shown, with Stoudemire committing 17 turnovers and Mozgov having more fouls (nine) than points (five). “We’re still getting used to each other, still trying to get that chemistry, but things didn’t go our way,” Felton said Saturday.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Orlando by 3; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Orlando -6.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - New York -4.36
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 13-25 ATS (-14.5 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 100.1, OPPONENT 105.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW YORK is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 107.3, OPPONENT 103.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 59-40 ATS (+15.0 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.0, OPPONENT 96.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 57-40 ATS (+13.0 Units) after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.7, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 53-33 UNDER (+16.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 101.5, OPPONENT 106.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 29-10 UNDER (+18.0 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 100.5, OPPONENT 91.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 26-11 UNDER (+13.9 Units) off a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 101.5, OPPONENT 91.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 19-6 UNDER (+12.4 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 99.7, OPPONENT 92.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 51-31 against the 1rst half line (+16.9 Units) after a game where they made 60% of their free throws or worse since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 47.0, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--NEW YORK is 52-27 UNDER (+22.3 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they made 60% of their free throws or worse since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 47.0, OPPONENT 46.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 35-18 UNDER (+15.2 Units) the 1rst half total in home games against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 49.8, OPPONENT 48.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW YORK is 30-15 UNDER (+13.5 Units) the 1rst half total as a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was NEW YORK 46.2, OPPONENT 50.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--NEW YORK is 26-15 OVER (+9.5 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 100 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.1, OPPONENT 56.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--ORLANDO is 72-49 UNDER (+18.1 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games where opponent was called for 25 or more fouls since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 48.1, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--ORLANDO is 48-29 UNDER (+16.1 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
The average score was ORLANDO 45.5, OPPONENT 47.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--ORLANDO is 30-17 OVER (+11.3 Units) the 1rst half total after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ORLANDO 52.1, OPPONENT 49.3 - (Rating = 2*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY ON - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (NEW YORK) - after a loss by 6 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 175 points or less.
(83-45 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.8%, +33.5 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 1.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.4, Opponent 45.8 (Average first half point differential = +3.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-26).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (288-276).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (NEW YORK) - team that had a losing record last season, after 1 or more consecutive losses.
(203-123 over the last 5 seasons.) (62.3%, +67.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 98.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.2, Opponent 49.1 (Total first half points scored = 96.3)
The situation's record this season is: (7-7).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (126-83).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (412-310).
___________________________________________
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__________________________________________________
*** BLAZERS LOOK TO CONTINUE SUCCESS VS BUCKS ***
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
For the first time this season, the Portland Trail Blazers must try to bounce back from a loss. A visit to Milwaukee could help make that happen. The Trail Blazers look to continue their recent success against the Bucks to conclude a four-game trip Tuesday night. Portland outscored its opponents 85-49 in the fourth quarter to win its first three contests. Despite outscoring Chicago 25-22 in the final period Monday, the Trail Blazers never mounted a serious comeback in a 110-98 loss to the Bulls. Despite the defeat, Portland is off to its best start since opening 4-1 in 1999-2000.
With Milwaukee up next, the Trail Blazers have a good chance to match that feat. Portland has averaged 105.4 points while winning six of seven over the Bucks. LaMarcus Aldridge, who had 33 points and pulled down nine rebounds Monday, has totaled 52 points and 18 boards in his last two games against the Bucks. He had 31 and 11, respectively, in a 108-101 double-overtime loss at Milwaukee on Dec. 12.
Brandon Roy scored 23 points in that contest, and has averaged 24.3 on 46.6 percent shooting in three career games at the Bradley Center. Despite being held to 17 versus Chicago, Roy is averaging 23.0 points this season. Though Milwaukee is averaging 91.3 points and shooting 40.9 percent through three games, Portland must defend better after allowing the Bulls to shoot 60.6 percent. “We definitely need to play with more energy,” Portland coach Nate McMillan said. “Defensively, I think we’re playing soft.”
The Bucks look to build on their first win, 98-88 over Charlotte in Saturday’s home opener. Brandon Jennings recorded his first career triple-double with 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, and Carlos Delfino had 23 points as the Bucks finally displayed the unselfish, complete play coach Scott Skiles wanted to see. “We’re getting there,” Skiles told the Bucks’ official website. “A win kind of stems the blows from the last two games.”
Jennings, who scored 55 points against Golden State as a rookie last November, believes his performance Saturday is the kind of effort he needs to put forth every game. “This is my best game since I’ve been in the NBA just the fact that I had a nose for the ball and I was being unselfish and I was everywhere,” said Jennings, who averaged 15.0 points and 9.0 assists in two games versus Portland last season.
Andrew Bogut, who scored 27 points in the December home win over Portland, had 14 points, eight rebounds and four blocks Saturday in his first regular-season game at the Bradley Center since dislocating his right elbow, spraining his wrist and breaking his hand in a severe fall in April. “I’m trying to get more confidence in my arm. I’m not entirely overly confident with where I think it needs to be, but it’s going to take some time,” said Bogut, who is averaging 12.3 points and 11.0 rebounds this season.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 1; O/U 186
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Milwaukee -1.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland by 4.4
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--MILWAUKEE is 37-17 ATS (+18.3 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 98.0, OPPONENT 94.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 96.1, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--MILWAUKEE is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 96.0, OPPONENT 95.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--MILWAUKEE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.6, OPPONENT 94.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 85-58 ATS (+21.2 Units) in road games after 2 consecutive non-conference games since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 94.1, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) after a game where their opponent was called for 30 or more fouls since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.3, OPPONENT 91.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 58-41 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 98.0, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.9, OPPONENT 94.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.6, OPPONENT 91.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.3, OPPONENT 90.0 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--MILWAUKEE is 90-59 OVER (+25.1 Units) in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 97.3, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 63-38 OVER (+21.2 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.2, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 22-9 OVER (+12.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 102.4, OPPONENT 102.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--MILWAUKEE is 26-13 OVER (+11.7 Units) in home games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 103.3, OPPONENT 101.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 59-35 UNDER (+20.5 Units) after allowing 110 points or more since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 93.6, OPPONENT 93.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 26-12 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.0, OPPONENT 90.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PORTLAND is 16-5 OVER (+10.5 Units) in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.5, OPPONENT 93.1 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MILWAUKEE is 80-54 against the 1rst half line (+20.6 Units) after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 48.2, OPPONENT 47.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 38-19 against the 1rst half line (+17.1 Units) after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 49.3, OPPONENT 46.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MILWAUKEE is 18-7 against the 1rst half line (+10.3 Units) in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 54.2, OPPONENT 48.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 25-43 against the 1rst half line (-22.3 Units) after having won 3 of their last 4 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 48.5, OPPONENT 48.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 18-6 against the 1rst half line (+11.4 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 49.1, OPPONENT 48.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 15-4 against the 1rst half line (+10.6 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 48.4, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 11-1 against the 1rst half line (+9.9 Units) when playing their 2nd road game in 2 days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 47.9, OPPONENT 42.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 17-7 against the 1rst half line (+9.3 Units) versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 47.9, OPPONENT 43.0 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--MILWAUKEE is 56-34 UNDER (+18.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.9, OPPONENT 47.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 14-1 UNDER (+12.9 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 straight games with 19 or less assists over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 45.9, OPPONENT 43.2 - (Rating = 5*)
--MILWAUKEE is 17-6 UNDER (+10.4 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 44.4, OPPONENT 48.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--PORTLAND is 92-59 UNDER (+27.1 Units) the 1rst half total when playing their 3rd road game in 5 days since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 45.2, OPPONENT 46.5 - (Rating = 4*)
--PORTLAND is 59-35 UNDER (+20.5 Units) the 1rst half total after allowing 110 points or more since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 46.4, OPPONENT 46.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY UNDER - Road teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (PORTLAND) - a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after allowing 110 points or more.
(22-4 since 1996.) (84.6%, +17.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average total posted in these games was: 186.1
The average score in these games was: Team 87.1, Opponent 91.3 (Total points scored = 178.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 13 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (3-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (5-2).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, after 1 or more consecutive wins.
(47-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.1%, +23.9 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 2.8
The average first half score in these games was: Team 48.7, Opponent 48.1 (Average first half point differential = +0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (31-9).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (111-86).
_________________________________________
*** KOBE INSISTS HE'S HEALTLY ***
-------------------------------------------
Following the Los Angeles Lakers’ latest win, Kobe Bryant and Coach Phil Jackson gave slightly different assessments of the All-Star guard’s surgically repaired knee. While Bryant may or may not be 100 percent healthy, his recent efforts against the Memphis Grizzlies have been decidedly robust. Bryant will try to help the Lakers improve to 4-0 by leading them to their fourth straight home win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday night.
When asked about his knee following Sunday’s 107-83 victory over Golden State, Bryant jokingly answered with multiple expletives and insisted that he was 100 percent. In response, Jackson told the team’s website, “He’s not 100 percent, but that’s good of him to say it.” Whether his knee is fully healthy or not, it hasn’t seemed to affect Bryant on the court as he’s averaging 24 points during the team’s 3-0 start.
The Lakers have been one of the league’s best scoring clubs with 111 points per game, and former Grizzlies star Pau Gasol has led the way with a team-best 25.3 per contest. They remain one of three unbeaten teams in the NBA along with Atlanta and New Orleans. Los Angeles has also seemed to benefit from a retooled bench that includes new faces Steve Blake, Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff. The Lakers could get some more help with Luke Walton expected to return soon from a strained hamstring.
While Gasol has averaged 16 points in six all-time matchups with his former club, Bryant has averaged 35.3 in his last 12 games against the Grizzlies and 39.0 on 62.3 percent shooting in last season’s three matchups. His 3-pointer with 4.3 seconds to go gave the Lakers a 99-98 victory in the teams’ previous matchup Feb. 23 in Memphis. The Lakers have won 42 of the 56 all-time meetings with the Grizzlies and 23 of 28 at home.
This time, they’ll meet a Grizzlies team that’s won consecutive games following a 15-point loss to Atlanta in its season opener. Memphis had a franchise-record 22 steals in a 109-89 rout of Minnesota on Saturday night. Mike Conley collected seven of those to tie his own franchise record. “I think it’s effort,” coach Lionel Hollins said. “It’s getting back to what we do. … We had 32 deflections and nine times we had three stops in a row. We had some consistency with our effort.”
The Grizzlies’ previous 3-1 start was in 2005-06, a season that ended with the franchise’s most recent playoff appearance. Memphis is hoping to see Zach Randolph return from a bruised lower back as it begins a four-game, five-night Western road trip. However, the status of Randolph, who has six consecutive double-doubles against the Lakers, is unknown for Tuesday’s game. Randolph was second on the Grizzlies last season in averaging 21 points in three matchups with the Lakers. Rudy Gay, who averaged 21.3, leads Memphis in scoring this season with 22.3 per game.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 11; O/U 203
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -12
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -5.79
___________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 20-34 ATS (-17.4 Units) in home games after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 99.6, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 80-52 ATS (+22.8 Units) after a win by 10 points or more since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 96.2, OPPONENT 95.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 98.7, OPPONENT 99.7 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 90-60 OVER (+24.0 Units) in home games versus poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 104.1, OPPONENT 94.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 82-55 OVER (+21.5 Units) in home games vs. teams who are called for 2+ more fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.9, OPPONENT 96.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 11-1 UNDER (+9.9 Units) after allowing 85 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 94.2, OPPONENT 93.2 - (Rating = 2*)
--MEMPHIS is 54-24 UNDER (+27.6 Units) in road games after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 91.7, OPPONENT 90.4 - (Rating = 4*)
--MEMPHIS is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 91.1, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 16-4 OVER (+11.6 Units) after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 20 or more since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 98.7, OPPONENT 98.3 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--MEMPHIS is 48-30 against the 1rst half line (+15.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 51.5, OPPONENT 52.5 - (Rating = 2*)
--MEMPHIS is 28-13 (+13.7 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.7, OPPONENT 52 - (Rating = 1*)
--MEMPHIS is 20-8 against the 1rst half line (+11.2 Units) versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 54.2, OPPONENT 53.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MEMPHIS is 20-8 (+11.2 Units) against the 1rst half line after playing a game as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 54.2, OPPONENT 51.6 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--LA LAKERS are 47-26 UNDER (+18.4 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.5, OPPONENT 48.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 34-15 UNDER (+17.5 Units) the 1rst half total after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 52.5, OPPONENT 47.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 33-15 UNDER (+16.5 Units) the 1rst half total after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 51.3, OPPONENT 47.7 - (Rating = 2*)
--LA LAKERS are 40-25 UNDER (+12.5 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 50.6, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--MEMPHIS is 88-61 UNDER (+20.9 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996.
The average score was MEMPHIS 47.0, OPPONENT 52.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--MEMPHIS is 27-14 OVER (+11.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 53.6, OPPONENT 53.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--MEMPHIS is 11-2 UNDER (+8.8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MEMPHIS 46.2, OPPONENT 51.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites (LA LAKERS) - good 3PT shooting team (>=36.5%) against a poor 3PT defense (>=36.5%), average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) against a horrible rebounding team (<=-5.5 reb/game).
(35-9 since 1996.) (79.5%, +25.1 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (13-31)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 10.2
The average score in these games was: Team 98.9, Opponent 103 (Average point differential = -4.1)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 21 (47.7% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (14-5).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (LA LAKERS) - off a win against a division rival, team that had a winning record last season.
(33-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.7%, +18.7 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 47.6, Opponent 49.8 (Average first half point differential = -2.2)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (24-10).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (81-63).
--PLAY UNDER - Any team (MEMPHIS) - after a blowout win by 20 points or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half.
(107-50 since 1996.) (68.2%, +52 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195
The average score in these games was: Team 96.3, Opponent 94.3 (Total points scored = 190.6)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 74 (46.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (26-15).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (40-20).
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Stan the Man Szumera a Professional Handicapper since 1977 offers you 33 years of experience. Stan is known for his strong work ethic and his commitment to delivering you the best analysis available. With regards to style, The Man likes to use the perfect blend of three decades of experience as well as emotional, statistical, and technical support to back up his selections.
Back in the early 80's, Stan the Man helped assemble one of the most powerful football and basketball databases in the nation. This incredible piece of software holds over 100 profitable situations with ATS records topping 90 percent.
Located on the East Coast just a few miles from the University of Seton Hall, Stan the Man is tuned into the Pirates as well as the Big East and Atlantic Coast Conferences. College Football, Major League Baseball as well as the NBA and NFL are considered his strengths. But keep in mind a profitable run can happen at any time in any sport when Stan gets into one of his capping zones!
Vince Lombardi, one of the greatest football coaches ever, once said, "They say that the Harder you Work, the Luckier you get" and Stan the Man is Living Proof! When you do business with Stan Szumera you can expect three things: experience, professionalism and effort, “Enjoy and the best of luck” –Stan!
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