STATSYSTEMS NBA REPORT 11/16 cont.
*** LOS ANGELES LAKERS (-3, O/U 196) @ MILWAUKEE ***
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After an 8-0 start, the Los Angeles Lakers have lost two straight and are seeking a spark as they try to get back on track. The NBA’s highest-scoring team will look to do so when it takes on the league’s top defensive club Tuesday night. The Lakers begin a three-game Midwest road trip against the Milwaukee Bucks, who are allowing a league-low 89.4 points per game. Los Angeles scored more than 100 points for the ninth time in 10 games Sunday, but fell 121-116 to Phoenix. The Lakers gave up 22 3-pointers - the second-highest total in NBA history.
“You hate losing, especially to start a road trip, but it is what it is,” guard Kobe Bryant said. “They made big shots, a lot of them.” Bryant ended up just shy of his 18th career triple-double, finishing with 25 points, 14 assists and nine rebounds. Pau Gasol had team-highs of 28 points and 17 rebounds while Lamar Odom added 22 points and 11 boards. “You know you’re always upset when you lose,” Coach Phil Jackson said. “This is about winning, this game is, and losing is a part parcel that you’re dealing with as far as accepting it.”
The Lakers are scoring an NBA-high 112.5 points a game. Bryant’s 25.2 average ranks third in the league, but he may have a tough time reaching that number against Milwaukee. This season, only Boston’s Paul Pierce (28), Charlotte’s D.J. Augustin (26) and New Orleans’ David West (25) have equaled or surpassed that average against the Bucks, who haven’t allowed a 30-point scorer in 11 games. Milwaukee held Bryant to 12 points on 4-of-21 shooting in the last meeting Jan. 10, although the Lakers won 95-77.
Milwaukee was particularly impressive against run-and-gun Golden State on Saturday, shutting down the Warriors in a 79-72 victory. The Bucks haven’t given up 100 points in regulation for nine straight contests. “Very good game and we needed it,” coach Scott Skiles said. “We only scored 79 points, and you don’t often win when you score 79. Our defense was solid, we rebounded the ball well. We got after them early and made them turn it over a little bit. “We’re starting to string together a couple good defensive performances.”
John Salmons scored a season-high 26 points for the Bucks, winners of three straight and four of five. “Our defense has been great all year, and we were able to hold a good offensive club to 34 percent (shooting),” Salmons said. The Bucks may need a similar defensive effort against the Lakers, as they’re 28th in the league with 92.1 points a game. Point guard Brandon Jennings leads the team at 15.7 points per contest. Los Angeles has won five straight in the series, and Bryant is 21-4 against Milwaukee in his career.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 2.5; O/U 194
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -3.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -1.84
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--MILWAUKEE is 32-9 ATS (+22.1 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.8, OPPONENT 94 - (Rating = 4*)
--MILWAUKEE is 28-11 ATS (+15.9 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=76% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.2, OPPONENT 95.6 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 66-41 ATS (+20.8 Units) in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.1, OPPONENT 100.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 38-17 ATS (+19.3 Units) in road games after 2 straight games with 15 or more offensive rebounds since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.2, OPPONENT 95.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MILWAUKEE is 64-37 OVER (+23.4 Units) in home games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 99.0, OPPONENT 98.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--MILWAUKEE is 50-25 OVER (+22.5 Units) as a home underdog of 3 points or less since 1996.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 98.9, OPPONENT 100.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 55-33 UNDER (+18.6 Units) versus teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 102.2, OPPONENT 96.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--MILWAUKEE is 26-10 against the 1rst half line (+15.2 Units) in home games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 51.5, OPPONENT 47.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--LA LAKERS are 43-79 against the 1rst half line (-43.9 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=43% since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 44.9, OPPONENT 48.1 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--MILWAUKEE is 37-12 UNDER (+23.8 Units) the 1rst half total after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 47.2, OPPONENT 45.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--LA LAKERS are 70-44 UNDER (+21.6 Units) the 1rst half total in road games vs. teams who are called for 2+ less fouls/game than their opponents since 1996.
The average score was LA LAKERS 48.0, OPPONENT 49.1 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - All teams where the 1rst half line is +1.5 to -1.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after allowing 80 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 225 points or more.
(28-8 since 1996.) (77.8%, +19.2 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 0.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 50.1, Opponent 47.7 (Average first half point differential = +2.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (10-1).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (15-2).
--PLAY ON - Underdogs (MILWAUKEE) - after beating the spread by 36 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games.
(67-25 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.8%, +39.5 units. Rating = 4*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is: (41-52 over the last 5 seasons.)
The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 5.2
The average score in these games was: Team 97, Opponent 98.2 (Average point differential = -1.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 36 (39.6% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (39-14).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (113-78).
--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MILWAUKEE) - after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 2 straight games.
(52-20 since 1996.) (72.2%, +30 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 195.1
The average score in these games was: Team 97.1, Opponent 92.3 (Total points scored = 189.4)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 38 (52.8% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-7).
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*** CHICAGO @ HOUSTON (-1.5, O/U 207) ***
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The Chicago Bulls’ annual two-week road trip at the end of November has historically gone very poorly, but new coach Tom Thibodeau hopes they will be looking at the trek differently this year. The Bulls embark on a seven-game trip Tuesday night when they meet the Houston Rockets. Chicago is off to a promising start and takes a three-game winning streak into its annual circus trip, which is made necessary when the United Center is taken over by the circus. However, the Bulls are 10-61 on that trip since Michael Jordan’s final season in Chicago, going 1-5 last year.
They will have a very challenging start to this trip, playing on back-to-back nights against Houston and San Antonio. However, Thibodeau said he’s trying to keep his team from looking at it as one long road trip, instead focusing on each game. “I’m concerned about … Houston,” Thibodeau told the Bulls’ official website. “All the stuff about going on the road and the circus, all this stuff, I’m not concerned about that. I’m just worried about the next game.”
After giving up more than 100 points in three of its first five games, Chicago seems to be embracing Thibodeau’s defensive philosophy, holding its last three opponents to an average of 92.7. The Bulls held on for a 103-96 win over Washington on Saturday despite giving up 38 points in the fourth quarter - five more than they allowed over the second and third combined. “I thought the whole team in the second half was capable of playing a lot better,” Thibodeau said.
Derrick Rose finished with 24 points and eight assists. He’s averaging 23.6 points and 9.5 assists and was named the Eastern Conference’s player of the week Monday. The Bulls, who are 0-2 on the road, will go for their fourth straight win over the Rockets after losing 11 of the previous 12 meetings.
Houston returns home after winning the final two games of a three-game trip. The Rockets defeated New York 104-96 on Sunday behind 28 points from Kevin Martin. Houston was without Yao Ming and Aaron Brooks who both suffered sprained left ankles earlier this month and will miss Tuesday’s game. They led by as many as 19 and held the Knicks to 3-of-16 shooting from 3-point range.
“It was a good road trip for us,” said Martin, who averaged 26.3 points over the three games. “We’re going through a lot right now. Two of our top four players are out right now and we thought we were going to have them beginning of the year and find chemistry early, but now we’re going to have to rely on whoever we have at the moment.”
Improved defense has keyed the turnaround. Opponents shot 40.2 percent from beyond the arc during a five-game losing streak to open the season, but they’ve been held to 32.8 percent over the last four games. The Rockets are yielding 96.8 points per game over that span after giving up 116.4 during the losing streak.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Houston by 1.5; O/U 208
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Houston -4
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Houston -0.78
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 31-53 ATS (-27.2 Units) in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 102.3, OPPONENT 100.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--HOUSTON is 21-39 ATS (-21.8 Units) versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 96.1, OPPONENT 99.3 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 71-46 UNDER (+20.3 Units) in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) since 1996.
The average score was HOUSTON 95.1, OPPONENT 93.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 78-46 OVER (+27.3 Units) in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 93.5, OPPONENT 98.5 - (Rating = 4*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 28-8 against the 1rst half line (+19.2 Units) versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 3+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.9, OPPONENT 49.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 16-2 against the 1rst half line (+13.8 Units) vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 53.1, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 40-23 against the 1rst half line (+14.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CHICAGO 51.7, OPPONENT 50.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 54-37 OVER (+13.3 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.8, OPPONENT 52.4 - (Rating = 3*)
--CHICAGO is 72-49 OVER (+18.1 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making <=33% of their attempts since 1996.
The average score was CHICAGO 47.2, OPPONENT 49.8 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 100 (CHICAGO) - very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season, dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game.
(23-4 since 1996.) (85.2%, +18.6 units. Rating = 5*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 104.6
The average first half score in these games was: Team 46.3, Opponent 48.3 (Total first half points scored = 94.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (13-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-3).
--PLAY ON - Home favorites vs. the 1rst half line (HOUSTON) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half.
(36-9 since 1996.) (80.0%, +26.1 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 3.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 54.2, Opponent 48.1 (Average first half point differential = +6.1)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (19-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
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*** NEW YORK @ DENVER (-8, O/U 216.5) ***
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Before this season, rumors swirled that Carmelo Anthony might soon join the New York Knicks. Having lost five in a row, the Knicks are perhaps hoping they could have already pulled off that trade. New York will try to snap that drought Tuesday night when it travels to face Anthony and the Denver Nuggets. Having refused to accept a three-year contract extension with Denver since June, Anthony has been rumored to be headed toward New Jersey and then New York after the All-Star forward told the Nuggets he wasn’t going to change his mind about re-signing.
Adding fuel to those rumors was New Orleans guard Chris Paul’s toast at Anthony’s New York wedding about joining him in the Big Apple to form a super trio with Knicks star Amare Stoudemire like the Miami Heat’s Big Three. For now, the talk has quieted while Denver has gotten off to an uneven start. After recording consecutive wins, the Nuggets have dropped three of four, with all of those losses coming on the road, including Monday’s 100-94 defeat to Phoenix.
Denver led by as much as 15 in the first half and eight early in the fourth quarter, but was outscored 27-13 over the final 10 minutes. Anthony was a bright spot in the defeat with 20 points and a career-high 22 rebounds, his second straight double-double. “This is a game we should have won and we let it slip by us,” forward-center Al Harrington said. “We’ve got to get better closing out games.”
In his previous home game Thursday, Anthony had 32 points and 13 rebounds to help the Nuggets knock off the previously unbeaten Los Angeles Lakers 118-112. He’s averaging 26.3 points and 10 rebounds at home this season while helping Denver win three of four there. The last time he faced New York at the Pepsi Center, he scored a career-best 50 points in a 128-125 victory, while Harrington led the Knicks with 41 off the bench. Anthony is averaging 33.4 points on 55.1 percent shooting in his last nine games against the Knicks and 35.0 in the last four home matchups.
New York will try to hold Anthony at bay while avoiding its fourth consecutive loss in Denver, but enters this game having given up an average of 110.2 points during its skid, its longest since dropping eight straight from Feb. 5-23. The Knicks trailed by single digits for much of Sunday’s home game against Houston until missing their first eight shots in the fourth quarter of a 104-96 loss. Stoudemire had 25 points but scored only three during the final period while his team was loudly booed.
“Obviously nobody wants to lose and everybody is pressing,” Coach Mike D’Antoni said. “The reality is we’re 3-7 and we’ve got a game on Tuesday. So you just try to figure out what’s going wrong, how can you get a little bit better.” In the opener of a four-game Western road trip, D’Antoni’s team will try to win for the third time in 11 games in Denver. The Knicks, though, won the previous matchup at Madison Square Garden on March 23 as Danilo Gallinari scored 28 points. Anthony had 36 in the 109-104 loss, which snapped a four-game win streak over New York.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Denver -9.5; O/U 215.5
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Denver -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Denver -10.95
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--DENVER is 15-32 ATS (-20.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 107.9, OPPONENT 105.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--DENVER is 5-18 ATS (-14.7 Units) versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 108.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 16-29 ATS (-15.9 Units) versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 102.5, OPPONENT 108.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 8-21 ATS (-15.6 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 103.5, OPPONENT 111.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DENVER is 46-27 OVER (+16.4 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 110.0, OPPONENT 101.0 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 57-35 UNDER (+18.5 Units) after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 101.5, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--DENVER is 14-32 against the 1rst half line (-21.3 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 53.5, OPPONENT 54.3 - (Rating = 4*)
--NEW YORK is 6-18 against the 1rst half line (-13.7 Units) in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 51.2, OPPONENT 61.2 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--DENVER is 15-3 OVER (+11.7 Units) the 1rst half total in home games versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was DENVER 59.2, OPPONENT 54.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--NEW YORK is 34-13 OVER (+19.6 Units) the 1rst half total versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW YORK 52.1, OPPONENT 58.0 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY UNDER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season.
(58-26 since 1996.) (69.0%, +29.4 units. Rating = 3*)
The average total posted in these games was: 215.4
The average score in these games was: Team 104.9, Opponent 104.2 (Total points scored = 209.2)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 44 (53% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (41-23).
--PLAY AGAINST - Favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (DENVER) - explosive offensive team - scoring 103+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 100 points or more 4 straight games.
(56-27 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.5%, +26.3 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.7
The average first half score in these games was: Team 55.5, Opponent 56.1 (Average first half point differential = -0.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (45-21).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (60-41).