Statsystems cfb report 11/16
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/16
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** OHIO U @ TEMPLE (-7.5, O/U 44.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------
Plenty is on the line this Tuesday night at Lincoln Financial Field, as the winner between the Temple Owls and the Ohio Bobcats will move one step closer to claiming the East Division title in the Mid-American Conference. Since losing three of their first four games this season, the Bobcats have improved drastically and roll into this matchup with an impressive six-game winning streak. Coach Frank Solich's squad is possibly the best team in the conference at the present moment, and Ohio showed its dominance in the team's 34-17 decision over Buffalo back on November 4th.
Temple, which is also 5-1 in conference play, has been outstanding at home thus far, winning all five of its matchups at Lincoln Financial Field this season and is currently riding a 10-game home winning streak which ties a school record set from 1972-74. The last time coach Al Golden's squad was in action the team grabbed its fourth straight win with a 28-10 victory over Kent State. The Bobcats took a slim 2-1 edge in the all-time series this past season with a 35-17 victory over Temple in Athens. It was a crucial matchup, similar to this year's clash, because it determined the MAC East Division champion.
Boo Jackson continues to do it all for Ohio, as the quarterback threw for 175 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another score on the ground in the team's 34-17 victory over Buffalo. Jackson finished with 26 of the team's 185 rushing yards, while Donte Harden and Phil Bates led the way with 58 and 41 yards, respectively. Terrence McCrae hauled in both of Jackson's scoring strikes, and finished the game with 48 yards on four receptions. McCrae has now caught nine of the team's 16 touchdown passes and while the wide out only has 26 catches on the year, he is clearly Jackson's go-to- option near the end zone. As for Jackson, he has thrown for 14 scores on the season, and has ran for another seven, but the signal caller has a problem with turnovers, and comes into this weekend with 13 interceptions. Jackson needs to manage the game this weekend and use his legs to hurt Temple. The passing attack will keep the Owls honest, but if Ohio wants to win coach Frank Solich is going to have to lean on his rushing attack, which is posting 177.6 ypg.
What made Ohio's win over Buffalo even more convincing was the play of the defense, which held the Bulls to just 208 total yards. The Bobcats pounced on Buffalo from the first whistle and did not let up until the game was over. Ohio surprisingly allowed over 100 rushing yards, but managed to hold Buffalo to just 84 passing yards. The defense also forced three turnovers in the win and was in the backfield throughout the matchup, finishing with four sacks. The Bobcats pride themselves on stopping the run, so surrendering 124 yards against Buffalo will definitely upset coach Solich, but might make him restless leading up to this matchup, because the Owls are a very strong running team.
Speaking of the Owls, they had their worst rushing performance in recent memory, amassing just 97 yards on 46 carries against Kent State. Usually when a predominately heavy ground attack is held under 100 yards that spells trouble for that team, but that was not the case for Coach Al Golden's Owls, as they turned to quarterback Mike Gerardi to lead the way. Lead he did, as the signal caller threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-29 passing. Rod Streater and Alex Jackson hauled in the touchdown passes, but Michael Campbell was the main target as the wideout finished with 137 yards on five receptions. Bernard Pierce did most of the damage on the ground for Temple, rumbling for 84 yards and a score, while Matt Brown was limited to just 20 yards. Despite the rough outing against KSU, Temple's ground game is still churning out 165.2 ypg, which is very solid. The two-headed monster of Pierce and Brown have combined for 1,430 yards and 16 touchdowns on the year, but now after Gerardi's performance there might be a few more holes for these two backs, as defenses will start to respect the pass. Since Gerardi has stepped in for Chester Stewart he has turned this offense into a balanced attack, throwing for 871 yards and eight scores against just four interceptions.
After posting back-to-back shutouts, the defense for Temple finally surrendered points against Kent State, as the Golden Flashes managed to throw 10 points on the scoreboard. It is clear that this defense has progressed considerably throughout the season and is hitting its stride at the perfect time. The Owls held KSU to just 223 total yards, and that includes just 16 rushing yards on 21 carries. Temple added three takeaways and used heavy pressure throughout the contest, finishing with five sacks. The relentless pursuit of the football and the opposing quarterback played a large role in Temple's ability to hold the Flashes to just 2-of-13 on third down attempts. The Owls will need to continue to have success against the run this weekend, as the Bobcats will try to puncture this defensive unit, which is holding opponents to just 121.7 ypg on a mere 3.2 yards per attempt.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Home side won all three Ohio-Temple games, with Bobcats losing 14-10 in last visit here; Ohio won its last six games overall, scoring 38.8 ppg in those six- they're 1-1 as underdog this year, losing by 7 to Toledo, 36 at Ohio State, 1 at Marshall. Owls won their last four games, winning last three by combined score of 100-10- they're 1-2 as a home favorite. MAC home favorites are 9-16 this season, 3-5 if spread is less than 9 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Temple by 11; O/U 46
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Temple -12.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Temple -8.96
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 26.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 27.4, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--OHIO U is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO U 30.3, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--OHIO U is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO U 27.9, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
The average score was TEMPLE 24.7, OPPONENT 12.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 36.8, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 23-11 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 13.7, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--OHIO U is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+17.2 Units) as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was OHIO U 9.3, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 22-6 UNDER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 9.4, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 9.3, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TEMPLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.7, Opponent 13.8 (Total first half points scored = 30.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-15).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (49-25).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(41-14 since 1992.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (51-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 32.3, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +13.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (46.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11).
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 11/16
NCAA COLLEGE FOOTBALL
INFO WORTH BETTING ON ONE PAGE EACH DAY
________________________________________________
***** STAT/SYSTEMS SPORTS POWER SEARCH - CFB *****
*** OHIO U @ TEMPLE (-7.5, O/U 44.5) ***
---------------------------------------------------
Plenty is on the line this Tuesday night at Lincoln Financial Field, as the winner between the Temple Owls and the Ohio Bobcats will move one step closer to claiming the East Division title in the Mid-American Conference. Since losing three of their first four games this season, the Bobcats have improved drastically and roll into this matchup with an impressive six-game winning streak. Coach Frank Solich's squad is possibly the best team in the conference at the present moment, and Ohio showed its dominance in the team's 34-17 decision over Buffalo back on November 4th.
Temple, which is also 5-1 in conference play, has been outstanding at home thus far, winning all five of its matchups at Lincoln Financial Field this season and is currently riding a 10-game home winning streak which ties a school record set from 1972-74. The last time coach Al Golden's squad was in action the team grabbed its fourth straight win with a 28-10 victory over Kent State. The Bobcats took a slim 2-1 edge in the all-time series this past season with a 35-17 victory over Temple in Athens. It was a crucial matchup, similar to this year's clash, because it determined the MAC East Division champion.
Boo Jackson continues to do it all for Ohio, as the quarterback threw for 175 yards and two touchdowns, while adding another score on the ground in the team's 34-17 victory over Buffalo. Jackson finished with 26 of the team's 185 rushing yards, while Donte Harden and Phil Bates led the way with 58 and 41 yards, respectively. Terrence McCrae hauled in both of Jackson's scoring strikes, and finished the game with 48 yards on four receptions. McCrae has now caught nine of the team's 16 touchdown passes and while the wide out only has 26 catches on the year, he is clearly Jackson's go-to- option near the end zone. As for Jackson, he has thrown for 14 scores on the season, and has ran for another seven, but the signal caller has a problem with turnovers, and comes into this weekend with 13 interceptions. Jackson needs to manage the game this weekend and use his legs to hurt Temple. The passing attack will keep the Owls honest, but if Ohio wants to win coach Frank Solich is going to have to lean on his rushing attack, which is posting 177.6 ypg.
What made Ohio's win over Buffalo even more convincing was the play of the defense, which held the Bulls to just 208 total yards. The Bobcats pounced on Buffalo from the first whistle and did not let up until the game was over. Ohio surprisingly allowed over 100 rushing yards, but managed to hold Buffalo to just 84 passing yards. The defense also forced three turnovers in the win and was in the backfield throughout the matchup, finishing with four sacks. The Bobcats pride themselves on stopping the run, so surrendering 124 yards against Buffalo will definitely upset coach Solich, but might make him restless leading up to this matchup, because the Owls are a very strong running team.
Speaking of the Owls, they had their worst rushing performance in recent memory, amassing just 97 yards on 46 carries against Kent State. Usually when a predominately heavy ground attack is held under 100 yards that spells trouble for that team, but that was not the case for Coach Al Golden's Owls, as they turned to quarterback Mike Gerardi to lead the way. Lead he did, as the signal caller threw for 368 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-29 passing. Rod Streater and Alex Jackson hauled in the touchdown passes, but Michael Campbell was the main target as the wideout finished with 137 yards on five receptions. Bernard Pierce did most of the damage on the ground for Temple, rumbling for 84 yards and a score, while Matt Brown was limited to just 20 yards. Despite the rough outing against KSU, Temple's ground game is still churning out 165.2 ypg, which is very solid. The two-headed monster of Pierce and Brown have combined for 1,430 yards and 16 touchdowns on the year, but now after Gerardi's performance there might be a few more holes for these two backs, as defenses will start to respect the pass. Since Gerardi has stepped in for Chester Stewart he has turned this offense into a balanced attack, throwing for 871 yards and eight scores against just four interceptions.
After posting back-to-back shutouts, the defense for Temple finally surrendered points against Kent State, as the Golden Flashes managed to throw 10 points on the scoreboard. It is clear that this defense has progressed considerably throughout the season and is hitting its stride at the perfect time. The Owls held KSU to just 223 total yards, and that includes just 16 rushing yards on 21 carries. Temple added three takeaways and used heavy pressure throughout the contest, finishing with five sacks. The relentless pursuit of the football and the opposing quarterback played a large role in Temple's ability to hold the Flashes to just 2-of-13 on third down attempts. The Owls will need to continue to have success against the run this weekend, as the Bobcats will try to puncture this defensive unit, which is holding opponents to just 121.7 ypg on a mere 3.2 yards per attempt.
• PREGAME NOTES
-----------------------
Home side won all three Ohio-Temple games, with Bobcats losing 14-10 in last visit here; Ohio won its last six games overall, scoring 38.8 ppg in those six- they're 1-1 as underdog this year, losing by 7 to Toledo, 36 at Ohio State, 1 at Marshall. Owls won their last four games, winning last three by combined score of 100-10- they're 1-2 as a home favorite. MAC home favorites are 9-16 this season, 3-5 if spread is less than 9 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Temple by 11; O/U 46
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Temple -12.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Temple -8.96
_________________________________________
• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
----------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.2 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 58% or worse since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 26.9, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 27.4, OPPONENT 16.0 - (Rating = 2*)
--OHIO U is 10-0 ATS (+10.0 Units) off 1 or more straight overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO U 30.3, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 5*)
--OHIO U is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was OHIO U 27.9, OPPONENT 23.7 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
---------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 7-0 UNDER (+7.0 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.
The average score was TEMPLE 24.7, OPPONENT 12.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 36.8, OPPONENT 24.2 - (Rating = 2*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 23-11 against the 1rst half line (+10.9 Units) versus the first half line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was TEMPLE 13.7, OPPONENT 9.4 - (Rating = 2*)
--OHIO U is 37-18 against the 1rst half line (+17.2 Units) as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was OHIO U 9.3, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
-------------------------------------------------------------------
--TEMPLE is 22-6 UNDER (+15.4 Units) the 1rst half total in home games after the first month of the season since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 9.4, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--TEMPLE is 19-4 UNDER (+14.6 Units) the 1rst half total in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
The average score was TEMPLE 9.3, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
----------------------------------------------
--PLAY OVER - Home teams where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 (TEMPLE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 10 through 13.
(28-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (82.4%, +21.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 23.1
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.7, Opponent 13.8 (Total first half points scored = 30.6)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (12-4).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-15).
Since 1992 the situation's record is: (49-25).
--PLAY AGAINST - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (OHIO U) - off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival against opponent off 3 straight wins against conference rivals.
(41-14 since 1992.) (74.5%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (51-4)
The average line posted in these games was: Team favored by 6.4
The average score in these games was: Team 32.3, Opponent 19 (Average point differential = +13.3)
The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 25 (46.3% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (20-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (33-11).
NBA DUNKEL
Philadelphia at Cleveland
The Sixers look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Philadelphia is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 701-702: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.307; Cleveland 115.648
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2); Under
Game 703-704: Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.666; Washington 112.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1); Over
Game 705-706: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.137; Indiana 116.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Over
Game 707-708: Portland at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.089; Memphis 119.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2); Under
Game 709-710: LA Lakers at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 127.097; Milwaukee 122.499
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3); Over
Game 711-712: Chicago at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.518; Houston 116.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 1 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Under
Game 713-714: New York at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.546; Denver 123.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10 1/2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8; 219
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Over
Philadelphia at Cleveland
The Sixers look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Philadelphia is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2). Here are all of today's picks.
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 16
Game 701-702: Philadelphia at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 115.307; Cleveland 115.648
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2); Under
Game 703-704: Toronto at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.666; Washington 112.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 2 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-1); Over
Game 705-706: Atlanta at Indiana (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.137; Indiana 116.623
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 203
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Over
Game 707-708: Portland at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.089; Memphis 119.366
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+2); Under
Game 709-710: LA Lakers at Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 127.097; Milwaukee 122.499
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 201
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-3); Over
Game 711-712: Chicago at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.518; Houston 116.072
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 1 1/2; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1 1/2); Under
Game 713-714: New York at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 112.546; Denver 123.245
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 10 1/2; 222
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8; 219
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-8); Over
GC NBA Play- Tuesday
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
On Tuesday the NBA play is on the Atlanta Hawks. Game 7085 at 7:05 eastern. The Hawks bounced back from their losing streak with a win over the Timberwolves. Now they travel to Indiana to take on a Pacers team that they have defeated 6 straight times. The Hawks are 8-1 ats on the road when the total is 200 to 204.5. They also are 16-5 straight up off 3 or more home games. Atlanta gets the call tonight as our Bonus Play. On Tuesday I have a Solid NBA Totals play from a system that has not lost. I also have a 26-3 NCAAB Early season indicator play . For the Bonus Play take the Atlanta Hawks. GC
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif][/FONT]
On Tuesday the NBA play is on the Atlanta Hawks. Game 7085 at 7:05 eastern. The Hawks bounced back from their losing streak with a win over the Timberwolves. Now they travel to Indiana to take on a Pacers team that they have defeated 6 straight times. The Hawks are 8-1 ats on the road when the total is 200 to 204.5. They also are 16-5 straight up off 3 or more home games. Atlanta gets the call tonight as our Bonus Play. On Tuesday I have a Solid NBA Totals play from a system that has not lost. I also have a 26-3 NCAAB Early season indicator play . For the Bonus Play take the Atlanta Hawks. GC
