Andre Gomes
713 LAL / 714 OKL Over 193.0 BetUS
Analysis: The second week of the competition starts today and after a poor first week for me, I look forward to start a bounce back tonight. One of the plays that I liked is the over in this contest. The oddmakers are offering 193 points and in my opinion, we have plenty of value with the Over. Note that last season the three contests between these two teams had lines of 219, 221.5 and 207 points and tonight we have a much shorter line.
Such drop in the line is partially explained by the Thunder spot coming for this game. They are 3-0 Under so far in this season with three low scoring games against the Kings, Pistons and the Trail Blazers and so, the books were forced to give them a low line due to this trend. However, in my opinion the Thunder didn’t have the conditions to participate in a high scoring affair in those games. In their first game of the season, they scored 68 points alone in the first half and with a 17-point lead at the break, they scored just 34 points in the second half because their victory was already clinched and they relaxed. Then in the next two games, the Thunder faced two slow paced teams in the Pistons and the Trail Blazers and naturally they were involved in low scoring games. Note that the Pistons offense are struggling without Richard Hamilton and the Blazers were coming from a poor defensive effort in the previous night in Houston and so, they were in a bounce back mode via their defense and the Thunder struggled offensively.
Kevin Durant was absolutely dismal in the team's last game by shooting only 3-21 from the field – a 14.3% clip! Russell Westbrook despite scoring 23 points, committed 9 turnovers, while dishing just 2 assists and the Thunder had a terrible night by shooting 34.3 % from the field and showed a awful ball movement with 6 assists and 19 turnovers. For tonight, I expect this team to aggressive on the offensive end, looking for a better offensive game. Westbrook will take advantage of the age and lack of speed of Derek Fisher and Durant won't certainly have such terrible numbers like he had against the Trail Blazers.
Meanwhile, the Lakers enjoyed finally a big game on the offensive end against the Hawks, as they scored 118 points after scoring just 80 points against the Mavericks. One of the reasons for such offensive explosion was the rise of their pace, as they played that game on their fastest pace so far in the season. The Thunder don’t have any real big man down low and the Lakers will explore such interior weakness. Last game they scored 60 points in the paint and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have similar numbers tonight. I tracked last season’s matchup between these two teams and all the three games were fast paced games. The problem was that the offensive efficiency wasn’t enough for the Over to cash in there, however thoseˆ games ended with 203, 200 and 196 points and in this outcome, those numbers would have been enough for us because we are dealing with a line of 193 points and that’s why I’m taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 193
707 ORL -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 708 DET
Analysis: NBA - 707 Orlando Magic @ 708 Detroit Pistons
There was a time where the Orlando Magic struggled every time they had to face the Detroit Pistons. Systematically they couldn’t handle with the Pistons physicality and Dwight Howard seemed to be strangely overpowered by Rasheed Wallace and the rest of the Pistons frontcourt. Note that despite the Magic were a powerhouse last season and the Pistons kingdom fell apart with the Billups for Iverson trade, the Pistons still swept the Magic in the 3-games series! If there is a team that the Magic don’t like and want badly to get revenge (besides the Lakers), that team is certainly Detroit.
Orlando is 3-0 this season and they are playing great basketball even without Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter in their last game. Ryan Howard, Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes have already showed that they are solid additions – especially Anderson with his long range. Dwight Howard is an absolute beast down low, as he is averaging 21.7 points per game, 16 boards and 2.3 blocks per game and do you know what will be his matchup today? Ben Wallace! Yes, Big Ben was a terrific defender, but he is now in the downside of his career (he was about to retire before this season) and he simply won’t be able to match the physicality of Howard.
For the Pistons, Richard Hamilton is still out and the Pistons are heavily struggling without him. In the last two games the Pistons had 29 assists and….35 turnovers! They lack a true point guard and their two PG’s Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum combined 18-for-57 (31.5%) the la†st two games and they’re 2-for-11 (18%) on the season from the three-point land. According to my numbers, the Pistons are also a bad rebounding team, as they were outrebounded in every single game and the Magic have several edges for this contest.
We are talking about a way better team who is fired up for this contest against a bad team who will be missing their best player. My fair line for this game is the Magic to be favored by a blowout line 8.5/9.5 points and that’s why I’m taking Orlando in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Orlando Magic (-5,5)
701 WAS / 702 CLE Under 197.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: There is the false perception from the public that the Wizards are a run and gun team and that is the main reason for such inflated line in this contest. I tracked the Wizards pace in their first three games of the season and they are actually the 9th slowest team in the league. Yes, they are coming from a game in which they scored 123 points against the Nets, but note that such high outcome was due to an unbelievable offensive efficiency in where they shot 61.5 % from the field and not because it was a run and gun game. Gilbert Arenas enjoyed a big game by scoring 32 points, but it was his supporting cast who caused the most damage in the Nets defense. Randy Foye shot 7-12 from the field and Andray Blatche scored 30 points in an awesome 15-18 from the field performance!
It is difficult to repeat such numbers in the following game and it is definitely a tough task to do it against a good defensive tea~m like the Cavaliers are. The Cavs are yet to play at their best especially on the offensive end, as Shaq is still adapting to the team and they are committing too many turnovers early on the season. However they are already showing an interesting defense and with Delonte West back, they look forward for a good defensive job against the Wizards. Like the Wizards, the Cavs are playing on a slow pace and therefore I expect this contest to be a half court battle between two good defensive teams. The Wizards may not be a great defensive team, but with Flip Saunders they look like a decent unit that who the Mavericks to just 91 points.
The line opened with 194 points and my fair line is 190-192 points and due to some line movements, we are able to get a line of 197.5 points and so, we have 2 full possessions of edge and this is enough for me to pull the trigger and make the under in here a Double Dime play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 197,5
717 ATL / 718 POR Under 192.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Portland Trail Blazers
After a really bad defensive performance against the Rockets in Houston, the Trail Blazers made a terrific job in holding the Thunder to just 74 points and their best player Kevin Durant to a symptomatic 3 for 21 from the field shooting night, so besides the 111 points allowed in Houston, the Blazers have just allowed 87, 97 (against the high octane Nuggets offense) and 74 points so far in this season. With the addition of Andre Miller, the Blazers are struggling on the offense with their turnovers, but the characteristics of a good defensive team remain intact.
Meanwhile, the Hawks suffered the first loss of the season against the Lakers by 110-118 in a game where they probably thought that they could beat the Lakers on a run and gun game. The result was pretty clear: at the end of the third quarter, they were trailing by 76-98! For this game, I expect them to return to their basics: half court game and a good overall defense. When they are focused on the defensive end, they are capable of playing very well like when they held the Pacers to 15 points in the fourth quarter and then, they held the Wizards to just 89 points. Last season these two teams faced each other twice and both contests were slow paced games, so naturally I expect a similar outcome to happen tonight. With the Blazers peaking defensively and the Hawks looking for a bounce back, I feel that this game will be a low scoring game and my fair line for this contest is 187 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 192
713 LAL / 714 OKL Over 193.0 BetUS
Analysis: The second week of the competition starts today and after a poor first week for me, I look forward to start a bounce back tonight. One of the plays that I liked is the over in this contest. The oddmakers are offering 193 points and in my opinion, we have plenty of value with the Over. Note that last season the three contests between these two teams had lines of 219, 221.5 and 207 points and tonight we have a much shorter line.
Such drop in the line is partially explained by the Thunder spot coming for this game. They are 3-0 Under so far in this season with three low scoring games against the Kings, Pistons and the Trail Blazers and so, the books were forced to give them a low line due to this trend. However, in my opinion the Thunder didn’t have the conditions to participate in a high scoring affair in those games. In their first game of the season, they scored 68 points alone in the first half and with a 17-point lead at the break, they scored just 34 points in the second half because their victory was already clinched and they relaxed. Then in the next two games, the Thunder faced two slow paced teams in the Pistons and the Trail Blazers and naturally they were involved in low scoring games. Note that the Pistons offense are struggling without Richard Hamilton and the Blazers were coming from a poor defensive effort in the previous night in Houston and so, they were in a bounce back mode via their defense and the Thunder struggled offensively.
Kevin Durant was absolutely dismal in the team's last game by shooting only 3-21 from the field – a 14.3% clip! Russell Westbrook despite scoring 23 points, committed 9 turnovers, while dishing just 2 assists and the Thunder had a terrible night by shooting 34.3 % from the field and showed a awful ball movement with 6 assists and 19 turnovers. For tonight, I expect this team to aggressive on the offensive end, looking for a better offensive game. Westbrook will take advantage of the age and lack of speed of Derek Fisher and Durant won't certainly have such terrible numbers like he had against the Trail Blazers.
Meanwhile, the Lakers enjoyed finally a big game on the offensive end against the Hawks, as they scored 118 points after scoring just 80 points against the Mavericks. One of the reasons for such offensive explosion was the rise of their pace, as they played that game on their fastest pace so far in the season. The Thunder don’t have any real big man down low and the Lakers will explore such interior weakness. Last game they scored 60 points in the paint and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have similar numbers tonight. I tracked last season’s matchup between these two teams and all the three games were fast paced games. The problem was that the offensive efficiency wasn’t enough for the Over to cash in there, however thoseˆ games ended with 203, 200 and 196 points and in this outcome, those numbers would have been enough for us because we are dealing with a line of 193 points and that’s why I’m taking the over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 713/714 Over 193
707 ORL -5.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 708 DET
Analysis: NBA - 707 Orlando Magic @ 708 Detroit Pistons
There was a time where the Orlando Magic struggled every time they had to face the Detroit Pistons. Systematically they couldn’t handle with the Pistons physicality and Dwight Howard seemed to be strangely overpowered by Rasheed Wallace and the rest of the Pistons frontcourt. Note that despite the Magic were a powerhouse last season and the Pistons kingdom fell apart with the Billups for Iverson trade, the Pistons still swept the Magic in the 3-games series! If there is a team that the Magic don’t like and want badly to get revenge (besides the Lakers), that team is certainly Detroit.
Orlando is 3-0 this season and they are playing great basketball even without Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter in their last game. Ryan Howard, Brandon Bass and Matt Barnes have already showed that they are solid additions – especially Anderson with his long range. Dwight Howard is an absolute beast down low, as he is averaging 21.7 points per game, 16 boards and 2.3 blocks per game and do you know what will be his matchup today? Ben Wallace! Yes, Big Ben was a terrific defender, but he is now in the downside of his career (he was about to retire before this season) and he simply won’t be able to match the physicality of Howard.
For the Pistons, Richard Hamilton is still out and the Pistons are heavily struggling without him. In the last two games the Pistons had 29 assists and….35 turnovers! They lack a true point guard and their two PG’s Rodney Stuckey and Will Bynum combined 18-for-57 (31.5%) the la†st two games and they’re 2-for-11 (18%) on the season from the three-point land. According to my numbers, the Pistons are also a bad rebounding team, as they were outrebounded in every single game and the Magic have several edges for this contest.
We are talking about a way better team who is fired up for this contest against a bad team who will be missing their best player. My fair line for this game is the Magic to be favored by a blowout line 8.5/9.5 points and that’s why I’m taking Orlando in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Orlando Magic (-5,5)
701 WAS / 702 CLE Under 197.5 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: There is the false perception from the public that the Wizards are a run and gun team and that is the main reason for such inflated line in this contest. I tracked the Wizards pace in their first three games of the season and they are actually the 9th slowest team in the league. Yes, they are coming from a game in which they scored 123 points against the Nets, but note that such high outcome was due to an unbelievable offensive efficiency in where they shot 61.5 % from the field and not because it was a run and gun game. Gilbert Arenas enjoyed a big game by scoring 32 points, but it was his supporting cast who caused the most damage in the Nets defense. Randy Foye shot 7-12 from the field and Andray Blatche scored 30 points in an awesome 15-18 from the field performance!
It is difficult to repeat such numbers in the following game and it is definitely a tough task to do it against a good defensive tea~m like the Cavaliers are. The Cavs are yet to play at their best especially on the offensive end, as Shaq is still adapting to the team and they are committing too many turnovers early on the season. However they are already showing an interesting defense and with Delonte West back, they look forward for a good defensive job against the Wizards. Like the Wizards, the Cavs are playing on a slow pace and therefore I expect this contest to be a half court battle between two good defensive teams. The Wizards may not be a great defensive team, but with Flip Saunders they look like a decent unit that who the Mavericks to just 91 points.
The line opened with 194 points and my fair line is 190-192 points and due to some line movements, we are able to get a line of 197.5 points and so, we have 2 full possessions of edge and this is enough for me to pull the trigger and make the under in here a Double Dime play.
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 197,5
717 ATL / 718 POR Under 192.0 Bookmaker.com
Analysis: NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Portland Trail Blazers
After a really bad defensive performance against the Rockets in Houston, the Trail Blazers made a terrific job in holding the Thunder to just 74 points and their best player Kevin Durant to a symptomatic 3 for 21 from the field shooting night, so besides the 111 points allowed in Houston, the Blazers have just allowed 87, 97 (against the high octane Nuggets offense) and 74 points so far in this season. With the addition of Andre Miller, the Blazers are struggling on the offense with their turnovers, but the characteristics of a good defensive team remain intact.
Meanwhile, the Hawks suffered the first loss of the season against the Lakers by 110-118 in a game where they probably thought that they could beat the Lakers on a run and gun game. The result was pretty clear: at the end of the third quarter, they were trailing by 76-98! For this game, I expect them to return to their basics: half court game and a good overall defense. When they are focused on the defensive end, they are capable of playing very well like when they held the Pacers to 15 points in the fourth quarter and then, they held the Wizards to just 89 points. Last season these two teams faced each other twice and both contests were slow paced games, so naturally I expect a similar outcome to happen tonight. With the Blazers peaking defensively and the Hawks looking for a bounce back, I feel that this game will be a low scoring game and my fair line for this contest is 187 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717/718 Under 192
The Duke's Sports
Bowling Green (+3')
The dog in this series has gone 4-0 ATS and we'll go with the revenge minded Falcons.BG has an explosive offense led by versatile QB Tyler Sheehan and the nation's leading WR Barnes. Buffalo will have its hands full on account of having banged up corners in Petit (out) and Josh Thomas (questionable). Moreover, the Bulls are forced to play younger , less experienced personnel on both sides if their line because of injuries. The Falcons have played well on the road (4-0 ATS as a road dog) and have a tendency to turn it on in November at 6-1 ATS. Bowling Green the call.
Bowling Green (+3')
The dog in this series has gone 4-0 ATS and we'll go with the revenge minded Falcons.BG has an explosive offense led by versatile QB Tyler Sheehan and the nation's leading WR Barnes. Buffalo will have its hands full on account of having banged up corners in Petit (out) and Josh Thomas (questionable). Moreover, the Bulls are forced to play younger , less experienced personnel on both sides if their line because of injuries. The Falcons have played well on the road (4-0 ATS as a road dog) and have a tendency to turn it on in November at 6-1 ATS. Bowling Green the call.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS
Newsletter
3-STAR PORTLAND over Atlanta
The Hawks are in the doldrums of the middle of a west coast trip with a more winnable date at Sacramento tomorrow. Portland on the other hand can put all their focus into this one with two days of before hosting San Antonio. It will show.Atlanta lost by eight to the Lakers on Sunday night, but the game wasn’t really that close. The Hawks trailed by 22 after three quarters. Los Angeles took the ball from Atlanta seemly at will, with 14 steals in the game. The Hawks are 0-11-1 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since April 13, 2005 on the road after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.Al Hortford was never able to get going in that game, going 3-of-8 for six points with nine rebounds. The Hawks are 0-16 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since January 04, 2008 on the road with a total less than 210 after a loss in which Al Horford had more rebounds than points.Scoring in general though wasn’t a problem for Atlanta in that game with 110 points. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since April 16, 2001 on the road after a loss in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.Portland’s last game was a 83-74 win in a defensive struggle. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 12, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest when their DPA was minus 15 points or less in their previous game.
PORTLAND 105, Atlanta 91
Newsletter
3-STAR PORTLAND over Atlanta
The Hawks are in the doldrums of the middle of a west coast trip with a more winnable date at Sacramento tomorrow. Portland on the other hand can put all their focus into this one with two days of before hosting San Antonio. It will show.Atlanta lost by eight to the Lakers on Sunday night, but the game wasn’t really that close. The Hawks trailed by 22 after three quarters. Los Angeles took the ball from Atlanta seemly at will, with 14 steals in the game. The Hawks are 0-11-1 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since April 13, 2005 on the road after a game in which their opponent stole the ball at least twelve times.Al Hortford was never able to get going in that game, going 3-of-8 for six points with nine rebounds. The Hawks are 0-16 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since January 04, 2008 on the road with a total less than 210 after a loss in which Al Horford had more rebounds than points.Scoring in general though wasn’t a problem for Atlanta in that game with 110 points. The Hawks are 0-6 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since April 16, 2001 on the road after a loss in which their DPS was at least plus 15 points.Portland’s last game was a 83-74 win in a defensive struggle. The Trailblazers are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 12, 2007 at home with at most one day of rest when their DPA was minus 15 points or less in their previous game.
PORTLAND 105, Atlanta 91
