Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
BOWLING GREEN +3.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.
Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.
It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.
On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.
The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.
It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.
Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.
As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.[/FONT]
BOWLING GREEN +3.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For a number of different reasons I feel the value in this matchup is on the visitors: With the combination of QB Tyler Sheehan and WR Freddie Barnes, Bowling Greens' arial attack remains solid; Sheehan has completed 65 % of his passes for 2,677 yards with 15 TD's and only five INT's.
Barnes has burst onto the national scene by making 99 receptions for 1,054 yards and nine TD's.
It's true the Falcons are 1-5 ATS their last six overall, but dating back to last season they're 9-2 ATS their last 11 on the road and 4-1 SU their last five vs. Buffalo.
On the other side of the field: In Buffalo’s most recent game, an overtime loss to Western Michigan on Oct. 24, Ike Nduka carried 18 times for 172 yards and a TD and has rushed for over 100 yards in three of Buffalo’s last four games; slowing him down in the backfield will be the plan for the Falcons.
The Bulls’ defense came into their last matchup ranked 42nd nationally at 331.1 yards per game allowed but they are now ranked 60th (352.8) after Western Michigan finished with 505 yards of total offense.
It should be noted that the secondary suffered several key injuries during that game and the only healthy cornerback from the two deep was junior Domonic Cook. Junior Josh Thomas and sophomore Joe Petit suffered concussions while senior Kendric Hawkins left with an internal injury.
Bottom line: While it’s a new coaching staff at BG, the Falcons will be looking for a measure of revenge against the Bulls, after last year's end of season fourth quarter meltdown which saw Buffalo win in double OT and then go on to win the MAC East, play in the conference championship game and in the International Bowl.
As the Bulls have been prone to the turnover this season (17 turnovers lost and only six gained, which is tied for 103rd nationally), I look for BOWLING GREEN to make the most of its opportunities tonight and to improve to 3-2 ATS as an "underdog" as Buffalo falls to 1-3 ATS at home and 0-2 ATS when playing the roll of favorite this season! *9* BOWLING GREEN.[/FONT]
Lenny Del Genio
BOWLING GREEN +3.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Falcons have major revenge from a 40-34 2OT loss last year to Buffalo where they blew a 27-7 4th quarter lead, enabling the Bulls to clinch the MAC East Title. Bowling Green has covered nine of its last 11 road games (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and won 7 of its last 8 November games SU. Buffalo has beaten just two FBS opponents all season and just one since the opening upset of UTEP. In fact, they have not covered as a favorite all season and just allowed 350 yards passing in their last game, a 34-31 loss to Western Michigan. For a bad and banged up Buffalo defense, the news gets worse against the Falcons passing attack of QB Sheehan and WR Barnes, the latter of whom leads the nation in receiving. The offense has thrown for 343+ yards passing in each of its last four games. Bowling Green is our 15* MAC Game of the Week. [/FONT]
BOWLING GREEN +3.5
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]The Falcons have major revenge from a 40-34 2OT loss last year to Buffalo where they blew a 27-7 4th quarter lead, enabling the Bulls to clinch the MAC East Title. Bowling Green has covered nine of its last 11 road games (8-1 ATS as an underdog) and won 7 of its last 8 November games SU. Buffalo has beaten just two FBS opponents all season and just one since the opening upset of UTEP. In fact, they have not covered as a favorite all season and just allowed 350 yards passing in their last game, a 34-31 loss to Western Michigan. For a bad and banged up Buffalo defense, the news gets worse against the Falcons passing attack of QB Sheehan and WR Barnes, the latter of whom leads the nation in receiving. The offense has thrown for 343+ yards passing in each of its last four games. Bowling Green is our 15* MAC Game of the Week. [/FONT]
Fantasy Sports Gametime
100* Play Bowling Green (+3.5) over Buffalo
Bowling Green has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 road games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a conference loss. Bowling Green has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games in the month of November and they are averaging over 315 passing yards a game this season.
100* Play Bowling Green (+3.5) over Buffalo
Bowling Green has covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 road games and they have also won and covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games coming off a conference loss. Bowling Green has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games in the month of November and they are averaging over 315 passing yards a game this season.
Rocketman
ANAHEIM DUCKS -110
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Anaheim is 5-2 SU and ATS at home vs Pittsburgh since 1996. Ducks are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Penguins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Anaheim. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season so far. Anaheim has played below average this season. I think all that changes tonight. We'll play Anaheim for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky[/FONT]
ANAHEIM DUCKS -110
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Anaheim is 5-2 SU and ATS at home vs Pittsburgh since 1996. Ducks are 11-5 in their last 16 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Home team is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Penguins are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Anaheim. Pittsburgh has been one of the best teams in the NHL this season so far. Anaheim has played below average this season. I think all that changes tonight. We'll play Anaheim for 4 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky[/FONT]
Randall the Handle
Boston +1.61 over DETROIT
The Red Wings return home from a very difficult road trip through Phoenix, Colorado, and then the dreaded three games in five nights in Western Canada. They are playing better and deserved better than a 2-3 record on said trip but they’re still getting beat too often and they still have issues in net with Chris Osgood and/or Jimmy Howard. Osgood is 37th out of 42 goaltenders in save percentage this season while Howard ranks 40th. Incredibly enough in 13 games this season the B’s have not won two straight nor have they lost two straight. They’re coming off a 1-0 loss against the Rangers but played another strong defensive game after a 2-0 shutout over Edmonton. The Bruins have allowed just three goals against in its last three games and although they have not been scoring a whole lot, they’re not facing Martin Brodeur or Henrik Lundqvist here. So, with a huge edge in net, a sweet tag and the Red Wings returning home from a five-game trip, the Bruins offer up some very nice value indeed. Play: Boston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.31 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs are another team returning home from a long, tough trip that took them through three time zones and ended with games against Buffalo and in Montreal. What’s also worth noting is that the Leafs tied it up in the last minute in the final two games of the trip and went to OT in the final three games of the trip. They played their hearts out every shift of every game but playing from behind and going into OT three straight games takes its toll on a team as well. Now the Leafs will have to return to the pressure of playing at home, where they have yet to win. They’ll be even more pressure on the team, as Phil Kessel makes his Toronto debut tonight. Jonas Gustavsson likely gets the start but he’s not much better than Toskala and in my opinion he’s worse. He just doesn’t look steady or right in the nets. Perhaps the worst break for the Leafs is that the Lightning played an absolutely embarrassing game last night in Philly. They pulled a complete no-show and never stood a chance from the opening face-off. There is no chance of Tampa coming out flat again tonight. The Lightning are winless on the road and dating back to last year have dropped 11 straight on the road. This is such a talented team and they need a road win in the worst way and this is the perfect opportunity to get it. Play: Tampa Bay +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.40 over MONTREAL
Despite the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers are still a dangerous team. But what’s most appealing about this game is taking back +1.40 against a Canadiens team that is not worthy of this billing. The Hans have two wins against the Leafs and were outplayed in both. They deserved two losses and not two wins. Prior to Saturday’s game, the Habs were crushed in Pittsburgh 6-1 and they were outshot 36-22 in a 3-2 loss to the Blackhawks. With all due respect to the Hurricanes, the Habs just might be least talented team in the league and offer up nothing as the chalk. Montreal’s 7-7-0 record is misleading and you can count on them to be well below .500 when the season ends. The Thrashers have played one of the more difficult schedules in the league. Prior to beating the Sens on Saturday, they played twice against the Caps and once against the Sharkies. They’ve also played Buffalo and New Jersey and those five games make up half of its 10 games this year. They average more goals than the Habs, they average less against, they’re penalty killing and power-play are both more efficient and they also have an edge in net with Ondrej Pavelec against Carey Price. Incidentally, Montreal is 2-5 when Price starts and have lost five straight with Price in net. Play: Atlanta +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Rangers –1.05 over VANCOUVER
The Canucks are still playing without some key healthy bodies and despite its two wins in its last three they have not looked good at all. In the Canucks 2-1 win over the Kings last Thursday they mustered just 15 shots on net. They followed that up with a 7-2 loss at Anaheim and in its 3-0 win over Colorado they had 20 shots on net. Prior to that trifecta, against Detroit they were outshot 42-26 and the 5-4 loss is a flattering score. Andrew Raycroft is once again in net and he’s played great but the Canucks are not going to keep winning games when they’re not creating scoring chances. Besides, they’ll face the leagues best goaltender tonight and that can’t work in their favor. The Rangers are in a bit of a funk but they’re healthy and they’re coming off a solid 1-0 win over the Bruins. Marion Gaborik, Chris Higgins and Sean Avery were all back in the line-up Sunday and it’s no coincidence that the Rangers lost both games Gaborik sat out and the game Avery and Higgins missed. The Rangers are simply the better team and very difficult to beat when the other team can’t muster up much offense. Play: NY Rangers –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.14 over ANAHEIM
The Penguins are a dog because why? Yeah, Malkin and Gonchar are out but so what. The Penguins are deep, they’re 6-0 on the road and they appear to be hungrier this year than last. The Pens lost its last game 2-1 to Minnesota but don’t be fooled by the score. They outshot the Wild 32-15 and were not beat by the team; they were beat by the goaltender. The Penguins are 11-3 overall and own the NHL’s best record. Meanwhile, the Ducks have one win in its last six games. In a recent stretch of four games against St. Louis, Dallas, Columbus and Toronto they allowed, 5, 4, 6 and 6 goals against, respectively. The Ducks may get right-sided and one has to believe they’ll be a little more jacked up playing the champs but hasn’t everyone? The bottom line is that the Pens keep winning, the Ducks keep losing and the tag is just the icing on the cake. Play: Pittsburgh +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
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Boston +1.61 over DETROIT
The Red Wings return home from a very difficult road trip through Phoenix, Colorado, and then the dreaded three games in five nights in Western Canada. They are playing better and deserved better than a 2-3 record on said trip but they’re still getting beat too often and they still have issues in net with Chris Osgood and/or Jimmy Howard. Osgood is 37th out of 42 goaltenders in save percentage this season while Howard ranks 40th. Incredibly enough in 13 games this season the B’s have not won two straight nor have they lost two straight. They’re coming off a 1-0 loss against the Rangers but played another strong defensive game after a 2-0 shutout over Edmonton. The Bruins have allowed just three goals against in its last three games and although they have not been scoring a whole lot, they’re not facing Martin Brodeur or Henrik Lundqvist here. So, with a huge edge in net, a sweet tag and the Red Wings returning home from a five-game trip, the Bruins offer up some very nice value indeed. Play: Boston +1.61 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.31 over TORONTO
The Maple Leafs are another team returning home from a long, tough trip that took them through three time zones and ended with games against Buffalo and in Montreal. What’s also worth noting is that the Leafs tied it up in the last minute in the final two games of the trip and went to OT in the final three games of the trip. They played their hearts out every shift of every game but playing from behind and going into OT three straight games takes its toll on a team as well. Now the Leafs will have to return to the pressure of playing at home, where they have yet to win. They’ll be even more pressure on the team, as Phil Kessel makes his Toronto debut tonight. Jonas Gustavsson likely gets the start but he’s not much better than Toskala and in my opinion he’s worse. He just doesn’t look steady or right in the nets. Perhaps the worst break for the Leafs is that the Lightning played an absolutely embarrassing game last night in Philly. They pulled a complete no-show and never stood a chance from the opening face-off. There is no chance of Tampa coming out flat again tonight. The Lightning are winless on the road and dating back to last year have dropped 11 straight on the road. This is such a talented team and they need a road win in the worst way and this is the perfect opportunity to get it. Play: Tampa Bay +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.40 over MONTREAL
Despite the loss of Ilya Kovalchuk, the Thrashers are still a dangerous team. But what’s most appealing about this game is taking back +1.40 against a Canadiens team that is not worthy of this billing. The Hans have two wins against the Leafs and were outplayed in both. They deserved two losses and not two wins. Prior to Saturday’s game, the Habs were crushed in Pittsburgh 6-1 and they were outshot 36-22 in a 3-2 loss to the Blackhawks. With all due respect to the Hurricanes, the Habs just might be least talented team in the league and offer up nothing as the chalk. Montreal’s 7-7-0 record is misleading and you can count on them to be well below .500 when the season ends. The Thrashers have played one of the more difficult schedules in the league. Prior to beating the Sens on Saturday, they played twice against the Caps and once against the Sharkies. They’ve also played Buffalo and New Jersey and those five games make up half of its 10 games this year. They average more goals than the Habs, they average less against, they’re penalty killing and power-play are both more efficient and they also have an edge in net with Ondrej Pavelec against Carey Price. Incidentally, Montreal is 2-5 when Price starts and have lost five straight with Price in net. Play: Atlanta +1.40 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. Rangers –1.05 over VANCOUVER
The Canucks are still playing without some key healthy bodies and despite its two wins in its last three they have not looked good at all. In the Canucks 2-1 win over the Kings last Thursday they mustered just 15 shots on net. They followed that up with a 7-2 loss at Anaheim and in its 3-0 win over Colorado they had 20 shots on net. Prior to that trifecta, against Detroit they were outshot 42-26 and the 5-4 loss is a flattering score. Andrew Raycroft is once again in net and he’s played great but the Canucks are not going to keep winning games when they’re not creating scoring chances. Besides, they’ll face the leagues best goaltender tonight and that can’t work in their favor. The Rangers are in a bit of a funk but they’re healthy and they’re coming off a solid 1-0 win over the Bruins. Marion Gaborik, Chris Higgins and Sean Avery were all back in the line-up Sunday and it’s no coincidence that the Rangers lost both games Gaborik sat out and the game Avery and Higgins missed. The Rangers are simply the better team and very difficult to beat when the other team can’t muster up much offense. Play: NY Rangers –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh +1.14 over ANAHEIM
The Penguins are a dog because why? Yeah, Malkin and Gonchar are out but so what. The Penguins are deep, they’re 6-0 on the road and they appear to be hungrier this year than last. The Pens lost its last game 2-1 to Minnesota but don’t be fooled by the score. They outshot the Wild 32-15 and were not beat by the team; they were beat by the goaltender. The Penguins are 11-3 overall and own the NHL’s best record. Meanwhile, the Ducks have one win in its last six games. In a recent stretch of four games against St. Louis, Dallas, Columbus and Toronto they allowed, 5, 4, 6 and 6 goals against, respectively. The Ducks may get right-sided and one has to believe they’ll be a little more jacked up playing the champs but hasn’t everyone? The bottom line is that the Pens keep winning, the Ducks keep losing and the tag is just the icing on the cake. Play: Pittsburgh +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
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Top of the Ticket – Side MALINSKY
MIAMI HEAT (-3) over Phoenix Suns
4* #314 MIAMI over PHOENIX
In favoring Miami by less than the value of the court they are making a long-term statement that we do not agree with in this one, and with the style matchup strongly favoring the Heat we can call for a much easier win than the oddsmakers are projecting. We are not Phoenix fans. The chemistry on the defensive end of the court is awful, with Steve Nash and Grant Hill getting long on the tooth, Amare Stoudemire rarely showing interest, and no shot blocker in the middle to make up for the deficiencies (until Robin Lopez returns, and he is still awfully raw). And a lack of quality depth makes it even more difficult to play with defensive intensity for 48 minutes. It will make them hard-pressed to beat quality opponents on the road, but they get thrown into the wrong price range here because of that ridiculously weak opening schedule of the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. Miami is a different story at the defensive end of the court. The Heat have held each of their first three opponents to their season low in scoring, rating #2 in the NBA on our best charts, and #1 in FG percentage allowed. It has been the solid work of Erik Spoelstra bringing that young roster together quickly, and the leadership on the court of Dwayne Wade creating a win-first, me-second focus. And while the Suns have those depth issues that accentuate their weaknesses, Spoelsta?s decision to bring Udonis Haslem off the bench is creating a much better game flow for the Heat, while Joel Anthony is also making major defensive contributions, rating 6th in the league in blocked shots in only 18 minutes per game. Dwayne Wade is a ?finisher?, and now that the cast around him has grown up the Heat are going to be difficult to close out on this court ? since the All Star break LY they are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the favorite?s role, and the Suns do not bring what it takes to alter that flow
MIAMI HEAT (-3) over Phoenix Suns
4* #314 MIAMI over PHOENIX
In favoring Miami by less than the value of the court they are making a long-term statement that we do not agree with in this one, and with the style matchup strongly favoring the Heat we can call for a much easier win than the oddsmakers are projecting. We are not Phoenix fans. The chemistry on the defensive end of the court is awful, with Steve Nash and Grant Hill getting long on the tooth, Amare Stoudemire rarely showing interest, and no shot blocker in the middle to make up for the deficiencies (until Robin Lopez returns, and he is still awfully raw). And a lack of quality depth makes it even more difficult to play with defensive intensity for 48 minutes. It will make them hard-pressed to beat quality opponents on the road, but they get thrown into the wrong price range here because of that ridiculously weak opening schedule of the Clippers, Warriors and Timberwolves. Miami is a different story at the defensive end of the court. The Heat have held each of their first three opponents to their season low in scoring, rating #2 in the NBA on our best charts, and #1 in FG percentage allowed. It has been the solid work of Erik Spoelstra bringing that young roster together quickly, and the leadership on the court of Dwayne Wade creating a win-first, me-second focus. And while the Suns have those depth issues that accentuate their weaknesses, Spoelsta?s decision to bring Udonis Haslem off the bench is creating a much better game flow for the Heat, while Joel Anthony is also making major defensive contributions, rating 6th in the league in blocked shots in only 18 minutes per game. Dwayne Wade is a ?finisher?, and now that the cast around him has grown up the Heat are going to be difficult to close out on this court ? since the All Star break LY they are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in the favorite?s role, and the Suns do not bring what it takes to alter that flow
st bernadine sports advisors
john Keelan(abats computer simulator) -
1*Bowling Green+3.5 (no write up)
Matt Dennehy(lillefty) -
1* miami heat -3.5 over phoenix suns
1st of a 5 game east coast swing for the suns. Everybody is on the suns bandwagon with their 3-0 start. It is nice but they beat the t-wolves, clippers and warriors. I know you can only play the games on your schedule but this isn't much different than the Football giants racking up the #1 defense by playing cupcakes. Eventually you get exposed. I think Miami exposes them some tonight. The heat just come off a tough win over a pretty good bulls team. Phoenix always struggles in Miami. They have covered only 1 of the last 8 meetings there. The home team is 8-3 L11 meetings between the 2 teams.
if I see randy's play before it goes off I will post it but otherwise,
LET'S CASH!!
zags
john Keelan(abats computer simulator) -
1*Bowling Green+3.5 (no write up)
Matt Dennehy(lillefty) -
1* miami heat -3.5 over phoenix suns
1st of a 5 game east coast swing for the suns. Everybody is on the suns bandwagon with their 3-0 start. It is nice but they beat the t-wolves, clippers and warriors. I know you can only play the games on your schedule but this isn't much different than the Football giants racking up the #1 defense by playing cupcakes. Eventually you get exposed. I think Miami exposes them some tonight. The heat just come off a tough win over a pretty good bulls team. Phoenix always struggles in Miami. They have covered only 1 of the last 8 meetings there. The home team is 8-3 L11 meetings between the 2 teams.
if I see randy's play before it goes off I will post it but otherwise,
LET'S CASH!!
zags
