Payne Insider
I look at this guy for NBA almost every year, 60% and better last 3 seasons. Hopefully I can get all picks from my friend who most likely will be buying.
here is win totals
NBA Futures Wager
#611 Dallas Mavericks OVER 49.5 Wins
50-DIME WAGER
For me, this team is an absolute direct slap in the face to the Mavericks at this number. This team has won 50 or more games since 2000-2001! I don't care what they do in the playoffs, I care about cashing tickets and this team right here is one of the best regular season teams the NBA has had this decade. Some elements to this team that I absolutely love is that everybody keeps talking about the eastern conference and how great they are. These west coast teams are chomping at the bit and have used it as motivation all summer long. You then take a look at this roster up and down and see they are 2-deep at every position. That is key to playing win totals like these. Jason Kidd at 37 keeps doing what he does. Dirk at 32 no matter what you say (Numbers don't lie) is one of the best power forwards of all time. You look at Caron Butler starting at the 2 guard position and is in the best shape of his life (playing for a new contract at years end). You add Hayward to the Mix at center and you find a team that won 55 games last season finally have their two weapons which they acquired late in the year to finally have some time to gel and play together. 55 wins with half of their starting lineup not with them for 70% of the season last year. They add Tyson Chandler who could start on half the teams in the NBA and is coming of a huge confidence-building summer with the Olympic Team. The depth on this team is the best in the entire NBA. You have 6th man in Jason Terry a real scorer off the pine -- and in Juan Barea as one of the best backup point guards in the league. We haven't even added the Shawn Marion, Deshawn Stephenson to the depth conversation yet. These guys aren't world beaters but they add depth and they certainly can play some ball. You also look for young guys that can help teams and install some energy and we have two of those guys on this roster as well with Rodrigue Beaubois and a rookie 1st rounder from South Florida in Dominique Jones. You also have a few of the intangibles that I like and that comes with a great coach in Rick Carlisle who preaches defense -- and that is one thing this defense can do with guys like Butler, Marion, Stephenson, Chandler, and Hayward. The other factor that you have to love here is that if things aren't going as picture perfect as Owner, Mark Cuban expects them to be he has the ability like none-other to go out and execute a trade to make his team perfect in that picture. He has done it year in, and year out. The window is closing on a championship run and he will do what it takes! Again, I just don't see how this ball club with their defense, experience, and depth to not do get us 18 games over .500. At 50-32 that is all you need -- bank on the Mavs getting over 50 wins somewhere in the 55 range and having us cash this NBA Future.
#628 Memphis Grizzlies UNDER 39.5 Wins
50-DIME WAGER
Many thought last year the Grizzlies had a great season baring the circumstances -- and no doubt they did. They now follow that up with a very impressive 8-0 record in the preseason so everybody is extremely high on this team. You know my approach to things, we treat sports wagering at. like the stock market. We buy low and sell high, and that is exactly what we are doing on this 2010-2011 Grizzlies team. Let's start off with a few things, the depth on this team is absolutely putrid. They have nobody in the front court in terms of depth, plain and simple. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol is who you have. Anybody who doesn't think Hashem "I wish I was the dream" Thebeet, is horrible, you are sadly mistaken. This front office from people I speak to say this guy has zero chance of coming close to producing what we thought. They are so down on this guy it's funny, and he was the first top 5 pick ever to be sent down to the NBDL. We now come into the season (and i think hot starts are important) with Marc Gasol possible their best player, certainly their most physical and biggest presence in the paint out with a high ankle sprain. This forces Thabeet to start. Again, no depth in the front court and that does not bode well when you are playing out west. The Grizzlies also didn't address their starting point guard situation in the off season. Mike Conley is not your answer at point guard, he is a backup. I believe his PG rating for all 30 point guard starters last season was 28! They tried to move OJ Mayo there during summer league, and that went like a fart in a space suit. Your best player in Rudy Gay is now going to sleep well at nights after signing his huge off-season contract. We talk about contract years, and this guy was playing for one last year, let's see how comfortable he gets with that money for an organization that doesn't set high goals, and plays in the West where a great year is finishing with 40 wins. That is the win total this team had last year, and I just see no way they get there this year. Teams out West are desperate with teams like Dallas and San Antonio knowing their windows are closing, you have the Lakers this year, Portland is getting healthy, Chris Paul is back this year. Teams out west have gotten better and if you are not one of those teams where hunger drives you - then you aren't going to be successful. This team has done zero to none to help it improve on the defensive end of the court and I don't think allowing 104 points per game can have you winning more than 40 games this year, the number it will take to beat us.
#651 Sacramento Kings OVER 25.5
50-DIME WAGER
This will end up being one my favorite wagers this season -- as I will be able to keep an eye on these guys more than usual and track an up and coming team. Again, we talk about buying low and selling high. So for those of you that are on that Oklahoma City bus, be advised your bus fare is at an all time high right now. Placing wagers on them to go over 53.5 wins where I see it posted now on pinnacle is absolute insanity! This Kings team is one of those young teams, looking to turn the corner and they will do it on the shoulders of one of the best highschool kids I have ever seen play in Tyrek Evans. The growth of this kid over the years is exponential, and we will see more of that this season. I love this teams depth. Beno Udrich is the back up point guard and he could start for many teams, including the Memphis Grizzlies above
They have great, great depth in the front court with the addition of a Demarcus Cousins, Samuel Dalembert, and Carl Landry. We talk about depth on the front court in the West and how it is so important, and they have it. You also add guys off the bench like a Jason Thompson who is another young kid and he started a lot of games last year but they have added so much talent in the front court that he will be forced to coming off the pine. You also have some experience scorers coming off the bench in Luther Head and Francisco Garcia, Head did good things for the Rockets last playoff run. So you have a mix of tons of young talent that has only gotten bettor, and mix it with depth at every position on the court -- and being 2-deep at virtually every position you have a team that can only have gotten better since last season. This team put up 25 wins last year, and that was with Evans only a rookie running point. A talent like that won't get better? You throw Demarcus Cousins in the mix who was a top 5 pick and already has an NBA body who most would agree is better than 80% of the big men in the league already. He won't help you improve? You added huge depth with the aforementioned Delambert and Landry pickups. Point guard is key and we have a guy who has filled in great in Udrich, he could start for many teams. I just get the feeling that this is one of those teams that takes the big leap this year. By no means am I saying this is a playoff contending team because let's be realistic, that will take 48+ wins out west this year. I think we can see that 25 number jump leaps and bounds to 35 and I wouldn't be shocked if they're this years Memphis Grizzlies, where they push towards the 40 win mark.
DIME SCALE: 10 to 100