STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 10/26 cont.
*** MIAMI SET FOR BIG 3 DEBUT IN BOSTON ***
The new look Miami Heat invade Beantown tonight and open up the 2010-11 NBA season by visiting the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics. Superstar Dwyane Wade is still the captain in Miami. He's still introduced last, and he's still the center of attention in all of the team's publicity material, but make no mistake that's all just pageantry now. Wade has been joined in Miami by two of the highest profile free agent acquisitions in NBA history, the reigning two-time NBA MVP LeBron James, who fled Cleveland after seven seasons for South Beach, along with former Toronto All-Star power forward Chris Bosh.
Meanwhile, Wade's former running rate on the Heat's 2006 NBA championship team, veteran center Shaquille O'Neal, is scheduled to make his debut for a Celtics team that came up just one game short of an NBA title last year. Wade, a former NBA Finals MVP and scoring champion himself, now has a lot in common with Derek Jeter in New York. Like Jeter with baseball's Yankees, he will always be the most popular player for his franchise but Wade is no longer the straw that stirs the drink in south Florida. In the Bronx, that title belongs to Alex Rodriguez. In South Beach, it took all of one day for James to seize the mantle.
James and Bosh kicked off a new era for the Heat with a combined 38 points as Wade went down early with a hamstring injury in Miami's 105-89 exhibition opening win over the Detroit Pistons on Oct. 5. Of course, preseason wins -- heck, even regular season wins -- aren't what it's going to be about in Miami this season. In fact the Heat may want to embrace Billy Joel's "Pressure" as their anthem this season. Anything short of an NBA championship will be viewed as a disappointment.
The blockbuster moves by Pat Riley in the off-season that netted Wade, who will play tonight despite struggling with the hamstring for much of the preseason, two teammates with 11 All-Star appearances between them also brought a ton of expectations. A potential minefield of off-the-court distractions await. "I hope these guys embrace it," former NBA star Chris Webber said of the scrutiny the Heat's three stars will surely face. "Don't apologize for getting together; don't tell us why it happened. Just beat everybody and say 'I told you so.'"
Things are much more tempered in Beantown, where the Celtics are coming off another great season in which they were a couple plays away from winning a second championship in three years. Led by their own big three of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen along with emerging point guard Rajon Rondo, Boston fell in Game 7 of the NBA Finals to the Los Angeles Lakers, 83-79, wasting a 13-point third-quarter lead in the process, and losing the seventh game of the finals for the first time in the franchise's storied history.
Health is a main issue for the aging core of the C's that now includes Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal. Boston center Kendrick Perkins went down with a knee injury in Game 6 against the Lakers in The Finals and his absence was felt inside in the final game. Perkins underwent successful surgery in July to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament and is scheduled to miss half of the upcoming season, forcing Boston to ink both O'Neals. The Celtics will also be without guard Delonte West, who is serving a 10-game suspension for an off-the-court indiscretion. Meanwhile, rookie guard Avery Bradley is out after undergoing left ankle surgery.
For Miami, swingman Mike Miller will be sidelined until at least January after undergoing surgery to repair a torn ligament and fracture in his right thumb. Miller, who signed a free agent contract with Miami this off-season that was worth $25 million over five years, sustained the injury when he got his hand caught in a teammate's jersey in practice last week. To replace him on the roster the Heat signed veteran guard Jerry Stackhouse.
Boston swept the three-game season series with the Heat last year and has won five straight overall and 11 of its last 12 against Miami. The Celtics also ousted Miami in the first round of the playoff last season but this is obviously a far different Heat team.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Boston by 3; O/U 184
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Boston -2
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Boston -1.82
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--BOSTON is 9-20 ATS (-13 Units) in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.1, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--BOSTON is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.8, OPPONENT 96 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
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--BOSTON is 13-16 (-30.9 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 96.1, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 5*)
--BOSTON is 9-12 (-21.4 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 94.3, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 30-20 (-31.4 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was BOSTON 98.9, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 107-50 (+31.8 Units) against the money line as a road favorite of -245 or less since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 95.5, OPPONENT 91.5 - (Rating = 5*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--BOSTON is 48-19 UNDER (+27.1 Units) the 1rst half total in home games against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 48.7, OPPONENT 44.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--BOSTON is 80-54 UNDER (+20.6 Units) the 1rst half total as a home underdog of 3 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 47, OPPONENT 48.6 - (Rating = 2*)
--BOSTON is 124-89 UNDER (+26.1 Units) the 1rst half total in a home game where the first half total is 95.5 to 100.5 since 1996.
The average score was BOSTON 49.2, OPPONENT 47.1 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 120-88 UNDER (+23.2 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.7, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 2*)
--MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER (+7.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 1.5 points or less vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MIAMI 46.1, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 1*)
--MIAMI is 93-59 UNDER (+28.1 Units) the 1rst half total as a road favorite of 3 points or less vs. the 1rst half line since 1996.
The average score was MIAMI 47.3, OPPONENT 45.3 - (Rating = 3*)
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*** EXPECTATIONS MIGHT HAVE TAKEN A HUGE HIT FOR SUNS ***
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Nash and Stoudemire formed the league’s pre-eminent pick-and-roll duo in their six seasons together, which saw Nash win back-to-back MVPs and Stoudemire become a fixture on the West All-Star team. With an injury history that included multiple knee surgeries and a serious eye issue, the Suns opted to not offer Stoudemire a maximum contract last summer. The five-time All-Star ended up heading to New York with a five-year deal worth $99.7 million, while Phoenix netted nothing but a trade exception in return.
The Suns knew they wouldn’t be able to replace an interior presence who averaged 23.3 points since Nash’s arrival in 2004-05. Instead, they acquired three small forwards - 6-foot-10 Hedo Turkoglu, 6-9 Hakim Warrick and 6-8 Josh Childress in addition to re-signing 6-11 3-point specialist Channing Frye. So much for getting a team back together that took the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers to six games in the West finals.
Phoenix averaged at least 108.4 points in all of Nash and Stoudemire’s seasons together, largely with a pick-and-roll offense that got Stoudemire rolling toward the hoop or a shooter an uncontested look from beyond the arc. According to coach Alvin Gentry, that’s not about to change. “We’re a pick-and-roll team, so we’re going to be running the pick and roll with everyone,” Gentry said. “We’re not thinking that anyone is going to be what Amare was, but Amare’s not here anymore.”
Nash might find himself running it more often with center Robin Lopez, who averaged 11.4 points in a stretch from mid-January to the end of March before suffering a back injury that kept him out until the conference finals. Perhaps the biggest key to Phoenix getting back to the playoffs, though, is Turkoglu. The swingman initiated much of Orlando’s offense while averaging 18.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists from 2007-09, but flopped last season with Toronto. With the Suns, however, he’ll be asked to replace Stoudemire, with Grant Hill starting at small forward and Jason Richardson alongside Nash in the backcourt.
Portland has plenty of issues up front as well, but it’s not for a lack of personnel. Injuries to the Trail Blazers’ big men have been a seemingly annual occurrence the past few years, and Greg Oden (left knee) and Joel Przybilla (right knee) won’t be available right away after going down just three weeks apart in December. Marcus Camby will start at center until either - or both - return, but Portland is thin behind him. The Blazers signed free agent Fabricio Oberto on Friday to replace Jeff Pendergraph, who tore his ACL in the preseason and was waived.
Still intact, however, is Portland’s own dangerous pick-and-roll combination of Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. Roy, hampered by minor injuries last season, saw his numbers slightly dip from his outstanding 2008-09. He missed the first three games of the first-round series with Phoenix, then shot 30.3% in Games 4, 5 and 6. With an injury-hampered roster, Roy says he’s not concerned with setting expectations for this season - particularly considering Portland hasn’t won a playoff series since 1999-2000.
Roy made waves in training camp by declaring that he wants the ball in his hands more often - a comment seen as somewhat of a dig at point guard Andre Miller, but that wasn’t even the most intriguing off-season drama in Portland. Swingman Rudy Fernandez, who averaged 8.1 points off the bench, was fined $50,000 earlier this month after his agent told a Portland radio show the Spaniard was homesick and no longer wanted to play in the NBA. Fernandez, though, made 21 of 40 preseason 3-pointers as he attempts to edge out Wesley Matthews, who signed a five-year, $34 million deal - for prime minutes off the bench.
Though Phoenix won twice at the Rose Garden in the playoffs, the Blazers have won the last three regular-season meetings there, including 124-119 on Dec. 18, 2008, in which Roy scored a career-high 52 points.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Portland by 1; O/U 204
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Portland -6
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Portland -1.34
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 39-20 ATS (+17 Units) in a road game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
The average score was PHOENIX 103.1, OPPONENT 100.5 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHOENIX is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHOENIX is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PORTLAND is 85-56 UNDER (+23.4 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 200 since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 100.7, OPPONENT 100.3 - (Rating = 3*)
--PORTLAND is 75-48 UNDER (+22.2 Units) when the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 99.9, OPPONENT 99.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 63-34 (+15.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PHOENIX is 63-34 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when the total is greater than or equal to 200 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 109.7, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 1*)
--PORTLAND is 105-68 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was PORTLAND 98.2, OPPONENT 94.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--PORTLAND is 245-127 (-96.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -165 to -500 since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 97.3, OPPONENT 92.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--PORTLAND is 29-13 (+17.3 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 101.5, OPPONENT 96.2 - (Rating = 1*)
--PORTLAND is 46-19 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in a home game where the total is 200 to 209.5 since 1996.
The average score was PORTLAND 103.7, OPPONENT 97.4 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--PHOENIX is 16-5 UNDER (+10.5 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was PHOENIX 51.7, OPPONENT 53.1 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY OVER - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season.
(56-26 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.3%, +27.4 units. Rating = 2*)
The average total posted in these games was: 207.7
The average score in these games was: Team 104.8, Opponent 104.7 (Total points scored = 209.5)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 37 (45.1% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (34-18).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (74-47).
--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (PORTLAND) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(88-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +35.2 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 49.8 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (62-27).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (141-104).
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*** LAKERS HAVE GOOD REASON TO BE UPBEAT ***
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While so much attention during the NBA off-season was focused on the happenings in South Beach, Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers were preparing to make a run for their third straight title in what could be the final season for coach Phil Jackson. Bryant, Jackson and the Lakers will watch as the franchise’s 16th championship banner is raised Tuesday night before taking on Yao Ming and the Houston Rockets in the season opener.
Despite being the defending champions, the Lakers spent most of the summer overshadowed in terms of media and fan attention by the decisions of free agents LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join Dwyane Wade with Miami. While the Heat’s moves were aimed at challenging Bryant and the Lakers, Los Angeles doesn’t seem concerned. Bryant and the Lakers have good reason to be upbeat. They return nine players from their championship team, which defeated the Boston Celtics in seven games, while adding free agents Matt Barnes, Steve Blake and Theo Ratliff.
Coaching Los Angeles’ roster, which features an NBA-high payroll around $95 million, will be the 64-year-old Jackson, who put off retirement for at least another season. The 11-time NBA champion coach has a .705 regular-season winning percentage, a record 225 postseason victories and two more titles than former Celtics coach Red Auerbach. While health issues caused him to consider retirement after last season, Jackson returned despite a pay cut. The chance to win three consecutive titles for the fourth time enticed Jackson, while the responsibility of being defending champs caused several players to make key off-season decisions.
Pau Gasol skipped summer duties with the Spanish national team while Bryant and center Andrew Bynum each underwent knee surgery. Bynum will be sidelined for at least another month, with Odom starting in his place. Bryant had his right knee surgically repaired, but chose not to undergo surgery on his right index finger after he fractured it last December. Although the finger still bothers Bryant, the recovery time would have taken longer than he wanted.
Bryant played through the injury last season, but at times struggled with his shot. He shot 45.6 percent during the regular season - his worst in four seasons - and 40.5 percent in the finals. Jackson is likely to limit Bryant’s minutes early on. He averaged almost 39 minutes per game last season, seventh in the NBA.
One of the teams looking to challenge the Lakers in the West is Houston, which was busy after going 42-40 last season while missing the playoffs for the first time in four years. The absence of Yao was a major factor, but the seven-time All-Star center appears set for his first action since May 8, 2009, when he broke his foot in the Rockets’ loss to the Lakers in Game 3 of the Western Conference semifinals. “I am very excited,” Yao said. “I am just looking forward to playing a great season. I think I can count on my foot now.”
The 7-foot-6 Yao, however, has missed time over the last four seasons due to leg and foot injuries, and concerns remain about how healthy he is. Coach Rick Adelman said he will limit Yao’s minutes to no more than 24 per game. It should help that Yao, who has averaged 19.1 points and 9.3 rebounds in seven seasons, isn’t expected to do it all. Aaron Brooks, the NBA’s most improved player last season, is hoping for another big season after averaging 19.6 points and 5.3 assists, and Luis Scola is back after averaging 16.2 points and 8.6 rebounds.
The Rockets re-signed reserve point guard Kyle Lowry to join Brooks in the backcourt and acquired 7-foot Brad Miller to back up Yao. Houston remains in transition after trading away Tracy McGrady and acquiring Kevin Martin, Jordan Hill and Jared Jeffries on Feb. 18. The Rockets also dealt swingman Trevor Ariza and added guard Courtney Lee during the summer. Adelman hopes the increased depth will help. Only three Rockets players saw action in all 82 games last season and 13 other players missed a total of 208 games to injuries.
The Lakers won three of four against the Rockets last season, although they lost 101-91 at home Nov. 15.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - Lakers by 9.5; O/U 203
*STAN'S POWER LINE - Lakers -8
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - Lakers -6.46
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• TOP RATED TEAM MONEY LINE TRENDS
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--LA LAKERS are 68-32 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 101.6, OPPONENT 97 - (Rating = 1*)
--LA LAKERS are 60-17 (+21.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was LA LAKERS 103.6, OPPONENT 96.7 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 99-74 (+23.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 99.7, OPPONENT 98.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--HOUSTON is 12-1 OVER (+10.9 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.3, OPPONENT 57.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--HOUSTON is 18-7 OVER (+10.3 Units) the 1rst half total as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points vs. the first half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.4, OPPONENT 55.1 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 27-13 OVER (+12.7 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.2, OPPONENT 54.4 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 49-32 OVER (+13.8 Units) the 1rst half total versus the first half line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 52.6, OPPONENT 52.6 - (Rating = 1*)
--HOUSTON is 20-9 OVER (+10.1 Units) the 1rst half total as a road underdog vs. the 1rst half line over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was HOUSTON 51.9, OPPONENT 55.2 - (Rating = 1*)
• HIGHEST RATED ATS SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY AGAINST - Home favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (LA LAKERS) - good shooting team from last season - made >=45.5% of their shot attempts.
(88-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (64.7%, +35.2 units. Rating = 2*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.4
The average first half score in these games was: Team 49.3, Opponent 49.8 (Average first half point differential = -0.5)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (62-27).
Since 1996 the situation's record is: (141-104).
