Dr. Bob
(312) ***HOUSTON (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10.
***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.
Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.
***MASSACHUSETTS (-14) 44 Eastern Michigan 24
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 334 Over/Under 0.0
Massachusetts proved once again that they’re good enough to score a lot of points against bad defensive teams, as the Minutemen won 41-17 at Kent State for their 3rd consecutive 40-plus point offensive performance. U Mass actually has scored 31 points or more in 5 of their 7 games with the exclusions being against Boston College and Penn State, and it’s likely that the Minutemen will put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard again this week against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 40.2 points on 520 total yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). I realize that the Eagles’ defensive scoring average is skewed by the 65 points they gave up to Florida and the 73 they allowed to Michigan State, but giving up 65 points to Florida is an indication that mediocre offensive teams can rack up a lot of points against the Eagles, who have allowed 6.7 yards per play or more in all but one game this season (and that includes giving up 6.9 yppl to FCS team Morgan State). U Mass hasn’t faced a defense this bad and my math model projects 547 total yards at 6.9 yppl and 42.5 points for U Mass in this game.
Eastern Michigan is coming off a rare win, as freshman quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. came off the bench to spark the win over Buffalo with 144 yards on 13 pass plays and 202 yards on 17 runs, which included a 72 yard touchdown. All indications are that Bell will get the start this week but I don’t expect he’ll put up numbers that good again. Bell played in 3 other games previously and totaled just 49 yards on 25 pass plays and 70 yards on 16 runs in those games. Overall, Bell’s passing numbers (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback) are actually 0.9 yppp better than they team average and his rushing numbers would 0.6 yards per rushing play to the Eagles’ attack. Overall, if I assume Bell is indeed a major upgrade despite the limited sample size, then the Eagles’ offense goes from 2.0 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) to 1.1 yppl worse than average. Of course, there is certainly a reasonable chance that Bell is no better than the rest of the Eagles’ quarterbacks, but I prefer to assume his superior numbers (relative to the other Eagles’ quarterbacks) are real rather than variance. The U Mass defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and the math projects 389 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles in this game, which equates to 22 points when projected turnovers (favors EMU a bit) and special teams (favors U Mass) are factored in.
Overall the math favors Massachusetts by 20 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win last week sets them up in a negative 9-48-1 ATS subset of a 24-82-1 ATS road dog letdown situation today. Eastern Michigan is also not used to winning and the Eagles have always had a habit of letting down after a rare victory. The Eagles are just 29% ATS in their spread history after a victory, including 2-15 ATS since 2007 and 0-7 ATS recently. That trend has held up through numerous coaches and the Eagles lost 0-65 in week 2 this season after beating Morgan State in their opener. U Mass has covered 5 of their last 6 and I like their chances here given the line value (even with Bell upgrading EMU’s offense by 4 points) and the strong situation against the Eagles. I’ll take Massachusetts in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.
(312) ***HOUSTON (-7) 3-Stars at -7 or less, 2-Stars up to -9.5, 1-Star at -10.
***HOUSTON (-7) 31 Temple 15
Houston struggled offensively the first 5 games with John O’Korn at quarterback so coach Tony Levine decided to turn to wide receiver Greg Ward Jr last week. Ward was a change of pace quarterback for the Cougars last season and was an efficient 19 for 29 with no interceptions while averaging 8.6 yards per pass play and running for 202 yards on 41 runs. I speculated last week that Ward’s yards per pass play numbers would drop as a starting quarterback because when he was inserted last season opponents were playing him to run the ball, which made it easier to throw it. Ward has averaged only 5.0 yards on 50 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) but that’s a significant upgrade over O’Korn, who has averaged only 4.7 yppp despite facing teams that would allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB. Ward not only elevated the pass attack last week against a good Memphis defense but he ran for 109 yards as well. Ward also has thrown just 1 inception on 77 career pass attempts while O’Korn had thrown 8 picks this season on 172 passes. Aside from Ward’s running, Houston has a good stable of running backs that all average 6.0 ypr or higher and the Cougars average 6.5 yards per rushing play if you take out O’Korn’s bad rushing numbers. Houston’s offense has been 0.6 yards per play worse than average for the season but they rate at +0.1 yppl with Ward at quarterback (the running component was based on Ward’s 5.7 yards per rushing play career average not his 6.8 yprp average this season, which was skewed by a 64 yard run last week) and the turnovers should drop too. Temple’s defense has been 0.5 yards per play worse than average in 4 games against FBS opponents (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average only 4.9 yprp against an average team) and the math projects 448 yards at 6.2 yppl for the Cougars with Ward Jr. at quarterback.
Temple’s sub-par attack, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.1 yppl to an average attack, is not likely to keep up in this game against a very good Houston defense that’s yielded just 19.2 points per game and 4.4 yppl to a schedule of opponents that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. The Owls are projected to gain just 290 total yards in this game and overall I favor Houston by 16 ½ points in this game. The adjustments for Ward at quarterback were about 4 ½ points so I would have favored Houston by 12 points without those adjustments. Temple seems better than they actually are because of a +9 turnover margin but Houston is projected to have a 0.7 fewer turnovers than Temple in this game now that the interception prone O’Korn has a headset on instead of a helmet. My math model gives Houston a very profitable 60.7% chance of covering at -7 points (based on the historical performance of my model) and would still be a 55.1% play at -9 ½ points and a profitable 53.4% play at -10. I’ll take Houston in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (up to -125 odds), for 2-Stars from -7 ½ to -9 ½ points and for 1-Stars at -10 points.
***MASSACHUSETTS (-14) 44 Eastern Michigan 24
Sat Oct-18-2014 at 12:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 334 Over/Under 0.0
Massachusetts proved once again that they’re good enough to score a lot of points against bad defensive teams, as the Minutemen won 41-17 at Kent State for their 3rd consecutive 40-plus point offensive performance. U Mass actually has scored 31 points or more in 5 of their 7 games with the exclusions being against Boston College and Penn State, and it’s likely that the Minutemen will put up 40 or more points on the scoreboard again this week against a horrible Eastern Michigan defense that’s allowed an average of 40.2 points on 520 total yards per game at 6.9 yards per play (against teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). I realize that the Eagles’ defensive scoring average is skewed by the 65 points they gave up to Florida and the 73 they allowed to Michigan State, but giving up 65 points to Florida is an indication that mediocre offensive teams can rack up a lot of points against the Eagles, who have allowed 6.7 yards per play or more in all but one game this season (and that includes giving up 6.9 yppl to FCS team Morgan State). U Mass hasn’t faced a defense this bad and my math model projects 547 total yards at 6.9 yppl and 42.5 points for U Mass in this game.
Eastern Michigan is coming off a rare win, as freshman quarterback Reginald Bell Jr. came off the bench to spark the win over Buffalo with 144 yards on 13 pass plays and 202 yards on 17 runs, which included a 72 yard touchdown. All indications are that Bell will get the start this week but I don’t expect he’ll put up numbers that good again. Bell played in 3 other games previously and totaled just 49 yards on 25 pass plays and 70 yards on 16 runs in those games. Overall, Bell’s passing numbers (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.6 yppp to an average quarterback) are actually 0.9 yppp better than they team average and his rushing numbers would 0.6 yards per rushing play to the Eagles’ attack. Overall, if I assume Bell is indeed a major upgrade despite the limited sample size, then the Eagles’ offense goes from 2.0 yards per play worse than average (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 6.2 yppl to an average team) to 1.1 yppl worse than average. Of course, there is certainly a reasonable chance that Bell is no better than the rest of the Eagles’ quarterbacks, but I prefer to assume his superior numbers (relative to the other Eagles’ quarterbacks) are real rather than variance. The U Mass defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average and the math projects 389 yards at 5.0 yppl for the Eagles in this game, which equates to 22 points when projected turnovers (favors EMU a bit) and special teams (favors U Mass) are factored in.
Overall the math favors Massachusetts by 20 ½ points and the Eagles’ upset win last week sets them up in a negative 9-48-1 ATS subset of a 24-82-1 ATS road dog letdown situation today. Eastern Michigan is also not used to winning and the Eagles have always had a habit of letting down after a rare victory. The Eagles are just 29% ATS in their spread history after a victory, including 2-15 ATS since 2007 and 0-7 ATS recently. That trend has held up through numerous coaches and the Eagles lost 0-65 in week 2 this season after beating Morgan State in their opener. U Mass has covered 5 of their last 6 and I like their chances here given the line value (even with Bell upgrading EMU’s offense by 4 points) and the strong situation against the Eagles. I’ll take Massachusetts in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -17 points.
VegasButcher
Under Royals/Orioles
The total in the first two games of this series was 7 each time, and the two teams scored 14 and then 10 runs. You’d think that with game 3 pitchers on the mound the Bookmakers would set this one a bit higher, but of course the sharp money didn’t allow that to happen. The total opened at 7.5 yesterday and of course the game was rained out. It opened again at 7.5 for today’s game, but by morning the juice was already heavily favoring the UNDER and the Bookmakers had to drop this one to 7 as well. So what’s the story here? Well, the series moves from Camden Yards, the 4th most HR-friendly ballpark in all of baseball to Kauffman Field, the 7th least HR-friendly one. In addition, the weather is supposed to be in the high-50’s for this one and dropping, while the wind is blowing in at over 15 MPH. A spacious park, cool weather, and a fairly decent-strength wind creates a scenario where runs could be hard to come by. In the first two games of this series, the Royals hit 4 HR’s while Orioles hit 1. The Royals were last in the league with 95 HR’s hit in 162 games, and now all of a sudden they’re turning into a power team in the playoffs? I highly doubt it. Small sample size and HR-friendly Camden Yards has a lot to do with this. I think tonight we will see the first low-scoring game of this series. Keep in mind that both teams have the #1 and #2 ranked fielding units, in addition to top-10 bullpens. Both pens are fully rested with having 2 days off and you can expect all key relievers to be sharp tonight. The UNDER will come down to the starters in this one. Chen is on a bounce-back after a poor outing in his first playoff start and he’ll be facing a KC team whose left-handed hitters have all been crucial so far in these playoffs: Aoki, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakas. Chen has a very strong 3.2 FIP (#47 out of 171 starters) against left-handed hitters this year. If he controls KC’s lefties, he should be able to work around their right-handed batters. On the other side we have Guthrie, who similar to Chen, has been much better against righties (3.5 FIP) than left-handers (4.3 FIP). In addition, Guthrie’s best pitch this year has been his ‘changeup’ a pitch that he’s been increasing in usage due to its effectiveness. The O’s rank 23rd against the pitch and that’s part of the reason why Guthrie has a 2.7 ERA and 1.2 WHIP against them over the last few years. Both starters are well rested and I expect both to throw well tonight. I anticipate a low scoring game 3.
Under Royals/Orioles
The total in the first two games of this series was 7 each time, and the two teams scored 14 and then 10 runs. You’d think that with game 3 pitchers on the mound the Bookmakers would set this one a bit higher, but of course the sharp money didn’t allow that to happen. The total opened at 7.5 yesterday and of course the game was rained out. It opened again at 7.5 for today’s game, but by morning the juice was already heavily favoring the UNDER and the Bookmakers had to drop this one to 7 as well. So what’s the story here? Well, the series moves from Camden Yards, the 4th most HR-friendly ballpark in all of baseball to Kauffman Field, the 7th least HR-friendly one. In addition, the weather is supposed to be in the high-50’s for this one and dropping, while the wind is blowing in at over 15 MPH. A spacious park, cool weather, and a fairly decent-strength wind creates a scenario where runs could be hard to come by. In the first two games of this series, the Royals hit 4 HR’s while Orioles hit 1. The Royals were last in the league with 95 HR’s hit in 162 games, and now all of a sudden they’re turning into a power team in the playoffs? I highly doubt it. Small sample size and HR-friendly Camden Yards has a lot to do with this. I think tonight we will see the first low-scoring game of this series. Keep in mind that both teams have the #1 and #2 ranked fielding units, in addition to top-10 bullpens. Both pens are fully rested with having 2 days off and you can expect all key relievers to be sharp tonight. The UNDER will come down to the starters in this one. Chen is on a bounce-back after a poor outing in his first playoff start and he’ll be facing a KC team whose left-handed hitters have all been crucial so far in these playoffs: Aoki, Hosmer, Gordon, and Moustakas. Chen has a very strong 3.2 FIP (#47 out of 171 starters) against left-handed hitters this year. If he controls KC’s lefties, he should be able to work around their right-handed batters. On the other side we have Guthrie, who similar to Chen, has been much better against righties (3.5 FIP) than left-handers (4.3 FIP). In addition, Guthrie’s best pitch this year has been his ‘changeup’ a pitch that he’s been increasing in usage due to its effectiveness. The O’s rank 23rd against the pitch and that’s part of the reason why Guthrie has a 2.7 ERA and 1.2 WHIP against them over the last few years. Both starters are well rested and I expect both to throw well tonight. I anticipate a low scoring game 3.
Wunderdog Sports
Complimentary NHL Pick for October 14th, 2014
Game: San Jose Sharks @ Washington Capitals
Time: Tuesday 10/14 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: San Jose -105 (moneyline) at 5Dimes
The San Jose Sharks have long been known to be nasty at The Shark Tank, where they are always a tough out. Last year they were a stronger presence on the road where they finished 22-15, on their way to a 111-point season. They are off to a 1-0 start on the season on the road, and are 2-0 overall. They have played perfect hockey through two games, scoring 7 goals, and have yet to allow a single one. San Jose has 15 of their next 19 games on the road, and they showed some grit on the road last season, and have started fast this year. San Jose won their only game here last year in a shootout, and going back to alst season, this team has been perfect when playing on a pair of days rest at 8-0 in their last eight. The Capsitals are just 1-5 at home in their last six dating back to last season, and the Sharks have dominated here at 9-1 in their last 10. Play on San Jose.
Complimentary NHL Pick for October 14th, 2014
Game: San Jose Sharks @ Washington Capitals
Time: Tuesday 10/14 7:05 PM Eastern
Pick: San Jose -105 (moneyline) at 5Dimes
The San Jose Sharks have long been known to be nasty at The Shark Tank, where they are always a tough out. Last year they were a stronger presence on the road where they finished 22-15, on their way to a 111-point season. They are off to a 1-0 start on the season on the road, and are 2-0 overall. They have played perfect hockey through two games, scoring 7 goals, and have yet to allow a single one. San Jose has 15 of their next 19 games on the road, and they showed some grit on the road last season, and have started fast this year. San Jose won their only game here last year in a shootout, and going back to alst season, this team has been perfect when playing on a pair of days rest at 8-0 in their last eight. The Capsitals are just 1-5 at home in their last six dating back to last season, and the Sharks have dominated here at 9-1 in their last 10. Play on San Jose.
