VegasButcher
San Francisco Giants -125
I’ve talked about his before, but Lackey has been a different pitcher at home than on the road since joining the Cards. At home (including the playoff game), he has a 2.2 ERA, 0.7 HR/9 rate, 5.8 K/BB rate, and a 3.0 SIERA. On the road, his ERA is 6.7, his HR/9 is 2.0, he only has a 2.1 K/BB rate, and a SIERA of 4.6. Those are some strong statistical differences. Lackey is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, and Giants rank in the top-11 against both of those pitches. In addition, Lackey has a 4.5 ERA in day-games this year. I’ve spoke before about his decreased velocity late in the year and though he looked fine against the Dodgers, that could still come into play in these playoffs, possibly today on the road.
Opposite Lackey is Hudson, who also was tremendous in his first playoff start. The advantage for Hudson is that he’s a strong ground-ball pitcher, with a GB% mark of 53% this season. Hudson has also allowed only 2 HR’s in his last 29 innings pitched which is a crucial factor here. Cardinals rank 24th on the year in the GB/FB rate, one of the worst teams in the league. They already hit a lot of grounders, and now will be replacing Molina with Pierzynski in the lineup, which is a huge downgrade. Now let’s take a look at how St Louis has been scoring runs lately at home. Game 3 against LAD, they scored 3 runs, and all 3 were generated by hitting 2 HR’s. They clinched against the Dodgers in game 4, after Adams hit a 3-run HR off Kershaw, winning 3-2. They went scoreless against Bumgarner in game 1 against SFG. Then last game, they scored 5 runs, 4 of those coming on 4 solo HR’s. Out of their 11 runs scored in their last 4 games, 10 of those were due to the long-ball. Playing in San Francisco, during the day, the ball does not travel as well as it does at night. In addition, they’re facing a strong GB-pitcher who has a very good HR/9 rate on the year. I believe for the Cardinals to score runs today, they’ll have to rely on putting consecutive hits together instead of the long-ball like they did at home. With STL ranking 28th in ISO against right-handed pitchers and playing in a ballpark that ranks LAST in HR-rate (Park factor of 89 against the HR, 11% below an average ballpark) allowed, I don’t like their chances of scoring many runs today.
St Louis is only 40-43 (-6.3U) on the road this year and 4-9 in their last 13 playoff road games. I like Giants’ chances in this one.
San Francisco Giants -125
I’ve talked about his before, but Lackey has been a different pitcher at home than on the road since joining the Cards. At home (including the playoff game), he has a 2.2 ERA, 0.7 HR/9 rate, 5.8 K/BB rate, and a 3.0 SIERA. On the road, his ERA is 6.7, his HR/9 is 2.0, he only has a 2.1 K/BB rate, and a SIERA of 4.6. Those are some strong statistical differences. Lackey is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, and Giants rank in the top-11 against both of those pitches. In addition, Lackey has a 4.5 ERA in day-games this year. I’ve spoke before about his decreased velocity late in the year and though he looked fine against the Dodgers, that could still come into play in these playoffs, possibly today on the road.
Opposite Lackey is Hudson, who also was tremendous in his first playoff start. The advantage for Hudson is that he’s a strong ground-ball pitcher, with a GB% mark of 53% this season. Hudson has also allowed only 2 HR’s in his last 29 innings pitched which is a crucial factor here. Cardinals rank 24th on the year in the GB/FB rate, one of the worst teams in the league. They already hit a lot of grounders, and now will be replacing Molina with Pierzynski in the lineup, which is a huge downgrade. Now let’s take a look at how St Louis has been scoring runs lately at home. Game 3 against LAD, they scored 3 runs, and all 3 were generated by hitting 2 HR’s. They clinched against the Dodgers in game 4, after Adams hit a 3-run HR off Kershaw, winning 3-2. They went scoreless against Bumgarner in game 1 against SFG. Then last game, they scored 5 runs, 4 of those coming on 4 solo HR’s. Out of their 11 runs scored in their last 4 games, 10 of those were due to the long-ball. Playing in San Francisco, during the day, the ball does not travel as well as it does at night. In addition, they’re facing a strong GB-pitcher who has a very good HR/9 rate on the year. I believe for the Cardinals to score runs today, they’ll have to rely on putting consecutive hits together instead of the long-ball like they did at home. With STL ranking 28th in ISO against right-handed pitchers and playing in a ballpark that ranks LAST in HR-rate (Park factor of 89 against the HR, 11% below an average ballpark) allowed, I don’t like their chances of scoring many runs today.
St Louis is only 40-43 (-6.3U) on the road this year and 4-9 in their last 13 playoff road games. I like Giants’ chances in this one.
JR Stevens Winning Sports Plays 10-14-2014 MLB
MLB (5-star or 5-unit)
(961) St. Louis +115 (Play of the Day #1)
*25-0 trend backing certain road teams (STL) after batting .240 or worse over the L20 games.
(963) Baltimore -110 (Play of the Day #2)
*21-0 trend going against certain Pitchers (Guthrie) whose ERA is lower than his WHIP over at least 3 consecutive starts.
*Listed Pitchers
MLB (5-star or 5-unit)
(961) St. Louis +115 (Play of the Day #1)
*25-0 trend backing certain road teams (STL) after batting .240 or worse over the L20 games.
(963) Baltimore -110 (Play of the Day #2)
*21-0 trend going against certain Pitchers (Guthrie) whose ERA is lower than his WHIP over at least 3 consecutive starts.
*Listed Pitchers
Topshelfpicks
Carson K - Giants
These games are tough to call today. Lackey vs. Hudson? Heads or Tails? Odd or Even? You get my point, rt? Well, I need to find a reason to take one team over the other. And looking at the 2 starters today, I just can't find a big enough advantage for either one. I believe they will pitch well, both going 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Yes, I can see a tied game going into the 8th, AWESOME!!!
Why I'm going with the Giants. ????????s To many Question Marks for StL today.
Lets start with Molina. Not having him behind the plate calling the game and his defense is HUGE. I don't care if he wasn't hitting the ball well. Not having him is a big deal. I know, "He may play", I don't care if he does, he won't be the same.
Trevor Rosenthal. After just blowing a save the other night and almost blowing one in his last road appearance vs. the Dodgers, what will we see from him today. Thats if the Cards have a lead going into the 9th. Like i said a few days ago, this isn't the Regular Season, it's the Playoffs. Some ppl can't handle the big stage. What will we get from the 24yr old Rosenthal when he does get on the mound next time? And that next time may be today.
I'm looking for a close game. I like i said, it wasn't easy. GO GIANTS!!!
Let me add one more thing. Some players should just keep their mouths shut. This was Mr. Lackey the other day, talking about the Giants hitters. "No offense to anybody in their line-up but they don't got Barry Bonds."
The comment is true. But why say it? It can only make you look silly when you give up 2HRs and get the "L".
Carson K - Giants
These games are tough to call today. Lackey vs. Hudson? Heads or Tails? Odd or Even? You get my point, rt? Well, I need to find a reason to take one team over the other. And looking at the 2 starters today, I just can't find a big enough advantage for either one. I believe they will pitch well, both going 7 innings giving up 1 or 2 runs. Yes, I can see a tied game going into the 8th, AWESOME!!!
Why I'm going with the Giants. ????????s To many Question Marks for StL today.
Lets start with Molina. Not having him behind the plate calling the game and his defense is HUGE. I don't care if he wasn't hitting the ball well. Not having him is a big deal. I know, "He may play", I don't care if he does, he won't be the same.
Trevor Rosenthal. After just blowing a save the other night and almost blowing one in his last road appearance vs. the Dodgers, what will we see from him today. Thats if the Cards have a lead going into the 9th. Like i said a few days ago, this isn't the Regular Season, it's the Playoffs. Some ppl can't handle the big stage. What will we get from the 24yr old Rosenthal when he does get on the mound next time? And that next time may be today.
I'm looking for a close game. I like i said, it wasn't easy. GO GIANTS!!!
Let me add one more thing. Some players should just keep their mouths shut. This was Mr. Lackey the other day, talking about the Giants hitters. "No offense to anybody in their line-up but they don't got Barry Bonds."
The comment is true. But why say it? It can only make you look silly when you give up 2HRs and get the "L".
NonStopSportsPicks
2* Orioles
Chen over Guthrie, for one. Orioles are TOO good to get swept and this is their do or die game. Joe West is behind the plate this season and the Royals are 0-4 with him in that situation. And I do lean to the UNDER tonight too. But again, I like the side better, and I look for the Orioles to fight their way back into this series. Short and sweet. Not over-thinking this as the Orioles have the better line-up, more power, better pitcher, and we're taking them. Stats were dropped earlier on Twitter, and we're just simply backing the O's tonight!
2* Orioles
Chen over Guthrie, for one. Orioles are TOO good to get swept and this is their do or die game. Joe West is behind the plate this season and the Royals are 0-4 with him in that situation. And I do lean to the UNDER tonight too. But again, I like the side better, and I look for the Orioles to fight their way back into this series. Short and sweet. Not over-thinking this as the Orioles have the better line-up, more power, better pitcher, and we're taking them. Stats were dropped earlier on Twitter, and we're just simply backing the O's tonight!
Sportswagers
ALCS - Game 3
KANSAS CITY +102 over Baltimore
Yesterday, the Royals were a small favorite. The game was rained out and for whatever reason the market somehow thinks that benefits the Orioles. Maybe it does (although that’s not logical), but in sticking to playing value in these extremely close and riveting games, we’re thrilled to be taking back any tag on these red-hot Royals right now against lefthander Wei-Yin Chen. Chen had a rough outing in the ALDS, allowing seven hits and five earned runs in just 3.2 innings. He also surrendered two bombs in that game. Chen has now allowed 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 20 innings. Last September he had a 5.12 ERA and in 2012 he went 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA in September. Are we seeing a pattern here? These Japanese pitchers are not used to throwing nearly 200 innings in six months. Chen pitched professionally in the Nippon Pro Baseball league in Japan from 2004 until 2011. Pitching pro ball in Japan for seven years, Chen threw an average of 160 innings per year over an average of 25 starts per year during the eight month long baseball season. In MLB over the past four years, Chen threw 192 innings in 2012, 137 innings in 2013 after an oblique strain cost him two months and he’s already thrown 190 innings this year. It’s equivalent to putting a racehorse in a 1 mile race after he’s been running in six furlong races for 7 years. Chen has labored badly through three Septembers and one October start. Chen’s xERA ever since he’s been an Oriole is 4.41, good for 97th in baseball, between Tommy Milone and Kyle Kendrick. He’s a soft tosser with great control that gives up way too many fly-balls and line-drives. Chen also had a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate. Lastly, current Royals have 41 hits in 129 career AB’s versus Chen for a BA of .318. They’ve also taken him deep six times with Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer taking him yard twice each.
Jeremy Guthrie threw another 200+ IP of few walks or Ks. Judging from his ERA and hit % history that only good fortune can nudge his ERA under 4.00. Two things he excels at: eating innings and generating work for defenders behind him and that’s fine with us. Guthrie will throw in the occasional gem and it’s also worth noting that his pitching IQ has been called one of the best in the game. Guthrie allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts. Over that span he posted a 63% groundball rate and overall his groundball rate was near 50%. Unlike Chen, Guthrie has been pitching 200 plus innings a season for years. Guthrie’s chance for success here is at least as good as or even better than Chen’s chance for success, especially when you consider that current Orioles have just 48 hits in 224 career AB’s against Guthrie for a BA of .214 and that this park is much bigger than Camden Yards, which absolutely does not benefit the O’s.
Note: Regarding the NLCS, the loss of Yadier Molina is a huge one for the Cardinals that is going to prevent us from stepping in here, as St. Louis will now be forced to use either Tony Cruz or A.J. Pierzynski. Pierzynski and John Lackey have a history together during their time with the Red Sox so one would assume that Pierzynski is likely to start. That would leave 2 bats out of the nine in the order that are almost sure outs.
Our Pick
KANSAS CITY +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
ALCS - Game 3
KANSAS CITY +102 over Baltimore
Yesterday, the Royals were a small favorite. The game was rained out and for whatever reason the market somehow thinks that benefits the Orioles. Maybe it does (although that’s not logical), but in sticking to playing value in these extremely close and riveting games, we’re thrilled to be taking back any tag on these red-hot Royals right now against lefthander Wei-Yin Chen. Chen had a rough outing in the ALDS, allowing seven hits and five earned runs in just 3.2 innings. He also surrendered two bombs in that game. Chen has now allowed 27 hits and 14 runs over his last 20 innings. Last September he had a 5.12 ERA and in 2012 he went 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA in September. Are we seeing a pattern here? These Japanese pitchers are not used to throwing nearly 200 innings in six months. Chen pitched professionally in the Nippon Pro Baseball league in Japan from 2004 until 2011. Pitching pro ball in Japan for seven years, Chen threw an average of 160 innings per year over an average of 25 starts per year during the eight month long baseball season. In MLB over the past four years, Chen threw 192 innings in 2012, 137 innings in 2013 after an oblique strain cost him two months and he’s already thrown 190 innings this year. It’s equivalent to putting a racehorse in a 1 mile race after he’s been running in six furlong races for 7 years. Chen has labored badly through three Septembers and one October start. Chen’s xERA ever since he’s been an Oriole is 4.41, good for 97th in baseball, between Tommy Milone and Kyle Kendrick. He’s a soft tosser with great control that gives up way too many fly-balls and line-drives. Chen also had a pedestrian 8% swing and miss rate. Lastly, current Royals have 41 hits in 129 career AB’s versus Chen for a BA of .318. They’ve also taken him deep six times with Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer taking him yard twice each.
Jeremy Guthrie threw another 200+ IP of few walks or Ks. Judging from his ERA and hit % history that only good fortune can nudge his ERA under 4.00. Two things he excels at: eating innings and generating work for defenders behind him and that’s fine with us. Guthrie will throw in the occasional gem and it’s also worth noting that his pitching IQ has been called one of the best in the game. Guthrie allowed one run or less in five of his last seven starts. Over that span he posted a 63% groundball rate and overall his groundball rate was near 50%. Unlike Chen, Guthrie has been pitching 200 plus innings a season for years. Guthrie’s chance for success here is at least as good as or even better than Chen’s chance for success, especially when you consider that current Orioles have just 48 hits in 224 career AB’s against Guthrie for a BA of .214 and that this park is much bigger than Camden Yards, which absolutely does not benefit the O’s.
Note: Regarding the NLCS, the loss of Yadier Molina is a huge one for the Cardinals that is going to prevent us from stepping in here, as St. Louis will now be forced to use either Tony Cruz or A.J. Pierzynski. Pierzynski and John Lackey have a history together during their time with the Red Sox so one would assume that Pierzynski is likely to start. That would leave 2 bats out of the nine in the order that are almost sure outs.
Our Pick
KANSAS CITY +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
Welcome to Ecks & Bacon for Tuesday, October 14, 2014
San Francisco Giants
Kansas City Royals
Rain, rain, go away. PLEASE. If you didn't catch yesterday's paper, here's how we broke down game three. Will the magic continue for the Royals? Can't remember the last time that we have seen EVERYTHING go right for one team. Like home runs. Kaycee hit the 95 HRs during the regular season, the LOWEST total in MLB, yet has EIGHT bombs in the post-season. They are making crazy catches, stealing bases with impunity and generally having a great time. Now Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill and he has not thrown a pitch since September 26, which is now 18 days. Would have liked to see Guthrie take the ball a little sooner, since his last three starts were amazing. He won all three and gave up just one earned run over 20 innings for a 0.45 ERA. What about the rust? The MAGIC DUST will take care of the rust, as long as it's a night game where the Royals own a 63-48 record as opposed to a day game where they are only 26-25. In the early game, gonna try the Giants with Tim Hudson over the Cardinals. Couple of stats you might wanna marinate on. The Giants are WAY better when the sun is out, a full 14 games over .500 (38-24), then at night (50-50). Thanks Michael. St. Loo has killed right handed pitching at home (40-23), but is under water against righties on the road (29-31). And PLZ do not pay attention to Hudson's 9-13 overall record. Hudson started 32 games for San Fran, and the team's record was 18-14. Oh yea, one more thing, Yadier Molina...GONE! Maybe...Put me down for half a Benjamin on each game.
San Francisco Giants
Kansas City Royals
Rain, rain, go away. PLEASE. If you didn't catch yesterday's paper, here's how we broke down game three. Will the magic continue for the Royals? Can't remember the last time that we have seen EVERYTHING go right for one team. Like home runs. Kaycee hit the 95 HRs during the regular season, the LOWEST total in MLB, yet has EIGHT bombs in the post-season. They are making crazy catches, stealing bases with impunity and generally having a great time. Now Jeremy Guthrie takes the hill and he has not thrown a pitch since September 26, which is now 18 days. Would have liked to see Guthrie take the ball a little sooner, since his last three starts were amazing. He won all three and gave up just one earned run over 20 innings for a 0.45 ERA. What about the rust? The MAGIC DUST will take care of the rust, as long as it's a night game where the Royals own a 63-48 record as opposed to a day game where they are only 26-25. In the early game, gonna try the Giants with Tim Hudson over the Cardinals. Couple of stats you might wanna marinate on. The Giants are WAY better when the sun is out, a full 14 games over .500 (38-24), then at night (50-50). Thanks Michael. St. Loo has killed right handed pitching at home (40-23), but is under water against righties on the road (29-31). And PLZ do not pay attention to Hudson's 9-13 overall record. Hudson started 32 games for San Fran, and the team's record was 18-14. Oh yea, one more thing, Yadier Molina...GONE! Maybe...Put me down for half a Benjamin on each game.
LineCatchers
Orioles
The Orioles trail the Royals by 2 games to nothing but could just as easily be leading this series 2-0. Much was talked about prior to the series beginning about both bullpens and how effective they were at end of ballgames. Thus far, its the Royals’ pen which has prevailed.
Lefty Wie-Yin Chen gets the nod for the Orioles tonight and had a great end to the season which saw him go 2-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In 16 road starts, Chen went 8-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He also showed a tremendous amount of control (1.7 BB/9) while striking out 6.6 batters per 9 IP in 2014. In his lone start at KC during the regular season, Chen held the Royals to just 1 run on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings of work.
Jeremy Guthrie will toe the rubber for the Royals tonight and the righty hasn’t pitched since the 26th September 2014. While he finished the regular season with a string of quality starts, tonight will be a huge test starting Game 3 of the ALCS against a team in a ‘Must-Win’ situation, I foresee the Kansas righty having plenty of nervous energy and a bit of rust in his work.
Baltimore left 20 runners on base in the opening two games of the series but weren’t able to compile any offense against the Royals’ bullpen. Kansas City’s pen struggled at times at home throughout 2014, in just over 250 IP, it combined for a 4.08 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I like the O’s to get the W tonight with a solid outing by Chen whilst being backed by their hitters to drive in enough runs against a rush Guthrie.
Orioles
The Orioles trail the Royals by 2 games to nothing but could just as easily be leading this series 2-0. Much was talked about prior to the series beginning about both bullpens and how effective they were at end of ballgames. Thus far, its the Royals’ pen which has prevailed.
Lefty Wie-Yin Chen gets the nod for the Orioles tonight and had a great end to the season which saw him go 2-2 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. In 16 road starts, Chen went 8-4 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He also showed a tremendous amount of control (1.7 BB/9) while striking out 6.6 batters per 9 IP in 2014. In his lone start at KC during the regular season, Chen held the Royals to just 1 run on 7 hits over 5 1/3 innings of work.
Jeremy Guthrie will toe the rubber for the Royals tonight and the righty hasn’t pitched since the 26th September 2014. While he finished the regular season with a string of quality starts, tonight will be a huge test starting Game 3 of the ALCS against a team in a ‘Must-Win’ situation, I foresee the Kansas righty having plenty of nervous energy and a bit of rust in his work.
Baltimore left 20 runners on base in the opening two games of the series but weren’t able to compile any offense against the Royals’ bullpen. Kansas City’s pen struggled at times at home throughout 2014, in just over 250 IP, it combined for a 4.08 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I like the O’s to get the W tonight with a solid outing by Chen whilst being backed by their hitters to drive in enough runs against a rush Guthrie.
