SPORTS ADVISORS
(16) Purdue (15-4, 7-8 ATS) at Wisconsin (12-7, 7-9-1 ATS)
Purdue shoots for its fifth straight victory and a regular-season sweep of the Badgers when it treks to the Kohl Center for a Big Ten battle with ice-cold Wisconsin.
The Boilermakers’ winning streak began with a 65-52 rout of the Badgers as a six-point home favorite back on Jan. 11. They followed that with a narrow two-point win at Northwestern, but have since posted a pair of easy wins against Iowa (75-53 as a 12½-point home favorite) and Minnesota (70-62 as a one-point road pup Saturday). Purdue is allowing just 57 points per game during its current winning streak.
While the Boilermakers have won four in a row, Wisconsin has dropped four straight (0-3-1 ATS), including Saturday’s 64-57 setback at Illinois, pushing as a seven-point underdog. After giving up an average of 55.7 ppg in their first three conference games (all wins), the Badgers have allowed 70 ppg during their losing skid.
Purdue started the conference season 0-2 SU and ATS, but is now 4-2 SU (3-3 ATS) against Big Ten opponents. Conversely, the Badgers began conference play 3-0 (2-1 ATS) but are now 3-4 (2-4-1 ATS).
Including the victory over Wisconsin earlier this month, the Boilermakers have won three straight in this series and they’re 6-0 ATS in the last six, including three straight spread-covers at the Kohl Center (1-2 SU). Last year, Purdue went to Madison and prevailed 72-67 as a 10-point underdog. The pup has cashed in five of the last six head-to-head clashes between these schools.
Purdue is on ATS streaks of 12-5-1 on the road and 25-9-1 against the Big Ten, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread-cover. Wisconsin carries negative pointspread streaks of 1-4-1 overall (all against winning teams), 1-6 on Tuesday and 0-4 at home against teams with a winning road record. Also, the Badgers are now 1-6 SU and 2-4-1 ATS against ranked opponents.
The over is on stretches of 4-1 for Wisconsin at home, 5-1 for the Boilermakers overall, 4-1 for the Boilermakers on the road and 6-1 for the Boilermakers in Big Ten play. Conversely, the under is 5-1 in the last six clashes in this rivalry, with the Jan. 11 contest at Purdue staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PURDUE
(11) Texas (14-4, 7-8 ATS) at Baylor (15-4, 6-5 ATS)
Texas returns to the road for the third time in four games when it invades the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas, looking for its 23rd consecutive victory over Baylor.
The Longhorns are coming off easy wins over Texas Tech (71-49) and Texas A&M (67-58), but they failed to cash as a 12-point home chalk in Saturday’s victory over the Aggies. Texas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games, during which it has averaged just 67.4 ppg while shooting 39.8 percent from the field (22.7 percent from three-point range).
Baylor fell out of the Top 25 once again this week after getting crushed 95-76 at Oklahoma as a seven-point road underdog, ending a modest two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bears have surrendered 85, 87, 92 and 95 points in their four losses while giving up just 65 ppg in their 15 victories.
The Longhorns are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in Big 12 play (1-1 SU and ATS on the road), while Baylor is 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS in conference (2-0, 1-1 ATS) at home).
Texas struggled to an 82-77 victory in its trip to Waco last season, but cashed as a 1½-point road underdog for its 22nd straight win in this rivalry as it also improved to 7-2 ATS in its last nine games at Baylor. The Longhorns cashed in both meetings last year after the Bears went 3-0 ATS in three clashes in 2007. Despite Texas’ dominance in this rivalry, the last five battles have been decided by an average of just 5.4 points per game after the ‘Horns won the previous five by an average of 21.2 ppg.
Baylor is 11-1 on its home court, but only four of those have been lined games, and it has gone 2-2 ATS. Because of the weak caliber of opponents, the Bears are outscoring their visitors by 18 ppg (86-68). Meanwhile, Texas is 5-3 SU and ATS in road/neutral-court situations, putting up just 67.2 ppg (39.2 percent shooting) and allowing 65.8 ppg (41.3 percent shooting).
Although the Longhorns are 1-4 ATS in their last five overall, they’re 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 Tuesday contests. Baylor is 5-2 ATS both in its last seven games on Tuesday and its last seven following a SU defeat.
For the high-scoring Bears, the over is on stretches of 22-7 overall, 10-4 at home, 37-16 in Big 12 action, 7-2 on Tuesday, 9-2 after a SU loss and 19-7 after a non-cover. The over is also 4-1 in Texas’ last five versus winning teams and 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry (2-0 last year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NBA
San Antonio (29-14, 19-23-1 ATS) at Utah (25-20, 22-23 ATS)
The Spurs, who are in the midst of a stretch where they will play 11 of 12 games on the road, pay a visit to EnergySolutions Arena for the first time this season as they take on the struggling Jazz.
San Antonio kicked off a three-game road swing with Sunday’s 99-85 loss at the Lakers, ending a four-game SU winning streak and dropping to 2-6 ATS in its last eight as it fell way short as a 7½-point road underdog. The Spurs short just 37.5 percent from the field and missed 18 of 23 tries from three-point range, while allowing Los Angeles to connect on 46.4 percent of its shots, including 7 of 17 from beyond the arc.
Utah has lost three in a row and four of its last six, and it is also mired in an 1-6 ATS nosedive, including four consecutive non-covers coming into this game. One night after getting clipped by the Cavaliers in a 102-97 home loss as a three-point underdog, the Jazz on Sunday went to Denver and got steamrolled 117-97 as an eight-point road underdog.
Utah’s defense has been nonexistent of late, giving up an average of 109.8 points per game over the last five contests and allowing 107 or more in seven of its last eight outings. However, the Jazz have scored at least 97 points in 14 of 15 games, hitting triple digits nine times during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Spurs have held five straight opponents under 100 points, allowing just 88.4 ppg, but they’ve also scored less than 100 in six straight contests, putting up only 90.5 ppg.
San Antonio smoked the Jazz 119-94 as a 4½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting back on Nov. 21. Going back to the 2007 Western Conference finals – which the Spurs won in five games – the home team is on a 9-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, and the SU winner has cashed in all 10 of those contests. Additionally, the host has cashed in 17 of the last 21 meetings, and the favorite is 19-7 ATS in the last 26.
In addition to being 2-6 ATS in its last eight overall, San Antonio is stuck in pointspread funks of 2-6 against winning teams, 1-4 when playing on one day of rest, 11-23 as a road underdog and 7-16 ATS as a road ‘dog of less than five points.
Although the Jazz have failed to cash in five straight overall and four of their last five as a favorite, they are on positive ATS runs of 50-24-2 as a home chalk, 19-7-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 10-3 when playing on one day of rest and 20-8 versus the Southwest Division.
For Utah, the over is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at home 4-1 as a favorite, 8-2 against the Western Conference, 8-2 against the Southwest Division and 5-1 when going on one day of rest. Also, the over is 6-2-1 in the Spurs’ last nine games against the Northwest Division, but otherwise San Antonio carries nothing but “under” trends into this game, including 5-0 overall, 41-19-1 on the road, 24-8-1 as an underdog, 8-2 as a ‘dog of less than five points, 44-21 after a SU loss and 7-2-1 on Tuesday.
Finally, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings in this series, but six of the last eight clashes in Salt Lake have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH