VegasButcher
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (1st Half)
In the last two games OKC has averaged 127 PPG, shot 55% from the field, and registered 27.5 assists per game. Now they get to take on a Miami team that ranks 25th in DefEff and 26th in eFG%-allowed. The Heat are coming off a 3-2 West-Coast trip and are coming into tonight’s game off a win – basically, they are content with the roadie. What’s interesting to me is that with both Wade (hammy) and Deng (illness) upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, the spread continues to rise from -6 to -7.5. Typically you’d expect the opposite on such news. I think it’s pretty clear that this OKC team is playing at an ‘elite’ level right now, and Miami just doesn’t have enough offense or defense to keep up. Wade and Deng make this starting lineup stronger, but the guys on the bench are still totally useless. Unlike OKC, who have Waiters and Jackson coming off the bench, Miami has guys like Granger, Haslem, and Norris Cole. Wade might have to play 48 minutes just to keep this Heat team in the game, but of course that’s unrealistic with all the hammy issues he’s been having this season. I expect a strong start, and finish, out of the Thunder tonight.
San Antonio Spurs -8
Once Leonard rejoined the team, the Spurs have won by 14 and by 20. All of a sudden this team went from barely being able to grind out ‘single digits’ wins to blowing opponents out. I know 2-games is a tiny sample size and is pretty insignificant, but the impact of Leonard can’t be over-stated. He’s San Antonio’s best and most well-rounded player, and his impact on games is huge. Tonight the Spurs will take on a Denver team that is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Yesterday the Nuggz got blown out by 43 points @ Golden State Warriors. It’s important to note that they’ve also lost to the Wolves (2nd worst team in the league) by 8 at home only a few games back and were pretty uncompetitive against Dallas prior to that (+8.7 ave lead for Mavs in that one). This team is just not playing well right now and taking on a Spurs squad that is getting healthier will be a major challenge. The Nuggets have had an average DefEff rating of 115 in their last 3 games, and with no practice time between yesterday and today, I doubt we’d see an improvement against the Spurs. (By the way, just for comparison, Wolves are the worst defensive team for the full season @ a defensive rating of 112.) San Antonio is a deep and well balanced team that plays very unselfish ‘basketball’ on the offensive end. To make matters worse, they also rank 6th overall defensively this season. I think Denver is going to be in a very difficult game once again tonight.
Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5
Oklahoma City Thunder -3.5 (1st Half)
In the last two games OKC has averaged 127 PPG, shot 55% from the field, and registered 27.5 assists per game. Now they get to take on a Miami team that ranks 25th in DefEff and 26th in eFG%-allowed. The Heat are coming off a 3-2 West-Coast trip and are coming into tonight’s game off a win – basically, they are content with the roadie. What’s interesting to me is that with both Wade (hammy) and Deng (illness) upgraded to probable for tonight’s game, the spread continues to rise from -6 to -7.5. Typically you’d expect the opposite on such news. I think it’s pretty clear that this OKC team is playing at an ‘elite’ level right now, and Miami just doesn’t have enough offense or defense to keep up. Wade and Deng make this starting lineup stronger, but the guys on the bench are still totally useless. Unlike OKC, who have Waiters and Jackson coming off the bench, Miami has guys like Granger, Haslem, and Norris Cole. Wade might have to play 48 minutes just to keep this Heat team in the game, but of course that’s unrealistic with all the hammy issues he’s been having this season. I expect a strong start, and finish, out of the Thunder tonight.
San Antonio Spurs -8
Once Leonard rejoined the team, the Spurs have won by 14 and by 20. All of a sudden this team went from barely being able to grind out ‘single digits’ wins to blowing opponents out. I know 2-games is a tiny sample size and is pretty insignificant, but the impact of Leonard can’t be over-stated. He’s San Antonio’s best and most well-rounded player, and his impact on games is huge. Tonight the Spurs will take on a Denver team that is on a b2b and playing their 4th game in 5 nights. Yesterday the Nuggz got blown out by 43 points @ Golden State Warriors. It’s important to note that they’ve also lost to the Wolves (2nd worst team in the league) by 8 at home only a few games back and were pretty uncompetitive against Dallas prior to that (+8.7 ave lead for Mavs in that one). This team is just not playing well right now and taking on a Spurs squad that is getting healthier will be a major challenge. The Nuggets have had an average DefEff rating of 115 in their last 3 games, and with no practice time between yesterday and today, I doubt we’d see an improvement against the Spurs. (By the way, just for comparison, Wolves are the worst defensive team for the full season @ a defensive rating of 112.) San Antonio is a deep and well balanced team that plays very unselfish ‘basketball’ on the offensive end. To make matters worse, they also rank 6th overall defensively this season. I think Denver is going to be in a very difficult game once again tonight.
BEN BURNS
10* Main Event — Nebraska -3-106
I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers have used their tough defense to go 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games and they face a Minnesota team that isn’t exactly loving Big Ten season right now. The Gophers are just 1-5 since conference play began and their bettors haven’t seen a dime in any of those games after an 0-6 against the spread start. I don’t think Minnesota’s luck is about to change going up against a Nebraska field-goal defense that ranks third in the Big Ten and is on pace to be the best Husker D in over 50 years. Nebraska also held its first 16 opponents this season to just 27.6 percent from beyond the 3-point line until they let Wisconsin shoot better than 50 percent last game. I think that was just an anomaly though and we’ll see Nebraska return to its normal self Tuesday night. Minnesota is notorious to Big Ten counterparts for being better at home than on the road and the Gophers’ numbers are proving it so far again this year. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road in conference play and allowed at least 70 points in all three games. The Gophers also score about 10 fewer points on the road than their overall average this season. I think Nebraska’s Tim Petteway, the Big Ten’s second leading scorer, will generate enough Huskers enough offense to cover this small number against a weak road team and the Husker D will take care of the rest. 10* Main Event
9* Best Bet — Denver Nuggets +8-105
I am playing on DENVER. After a team suffers an embarrassing loss like the 43-point drubbing the Nuggets got hit with last night against the Warriors, that team usually responds with either a terrible effort or a fantastic one the next game. I think we’ll see the latter from the Nuggets tonight, which makes me feel like they are being awarded too many points from oddsmakers here. If the Nuggets have any pride at all, they’ll come back and compete tonight against a very good Spurs squad like their season depended on it. One area they hold an edge over San Antonio is rebounding, where the Nuggets are actually the second-best offensive boards team in the league. I think we’ll see the Nuggets fight like mad for loose balls and get some key second chance points that will at least help them keep this one close. The Nuggets should also benefit from being back at home tonight where they score about three more points and allow three fewer points than their season averages. One other item to consider is that the Spurs seem to have a bit of a letdown after big wins recently. They are 1-5 against the number after winning by double digits in their previous game. San Antonio is coming off an 89-69 win over Utah two nights ago, putting the team in that spot tonight. 9* Best Bet
10* Main Event — Nebraska -3-106
I am playing on NEBRASKA. The Huskers have used their tough defense to go 2-0-1 against the spread over their last three games and they face a Minnesota team that isn’t exactly loving Big Ten season right now. The Gophers are just 1-5 since conference play began and their bettors haven’t seen a dime in any of those games after an 0-6 against the spread start. I don’t think Minnesota’s luck is about to change going up against a Nebraska field-goal defense that ranks third in the Big Ten and is on pace to be the best Husker D in over 50 years. Nebraska also held its first 16 opponents this season to just 27.6 percent from beyond the 3-point line until they let Wisconsin shoot better than 50 percent last game. I think that was just an anomaly though and we’ll see Nebraska return to its normal self Tuesday night. Minnesota is notorious to Big Ten counterparts for being better at home than on the road and the Gophers’ numbers are proving it so far again this year. They are 0-3 SU and ATS on the road in conference play and allowed at least 70 points in all three games. The Gophers also score about 10 fewer points on the road than their overall average this season. I think Nebraska’s Tim Petteway, the Big Ten’s second leading scorer, will generate enough Huskers enough offense to cover this small number against a weak road team and the Husker D will take care of the rest. 10* Main Event
9* Best Bet — Denver Nuggets +8-105
I am playing on DENVER. After a team suffers an embarrassing loss like the 43-point drubbing the Nuggets got hit with last night against the Warriors, that team usually responds with either a terrible effort or a fantastic one the next game. I think we’ll see the latter from the Nuggets tonight, which makes me feel like they are being awarded too many points from oddsmakers here. If the Nuggets have any pride at all, they’ll come back and compete tonight against a very good Spurs squad like their season depended on it. One area they hold an edge over San Antonio is rebounding, where the Nuggets are actually the second-best offensive boards team in the league. I think we’ll see the Nuggets fight like mad for loose balls and get some key second chance points that will at least help them keep this one close. The Nuggets should also benefit from being back at home tonight where they score about three more points and allow three fewer points than their season averages. One other item to consider is that the Spurs seem to have a bit of a letdown after big wins recently. They are 1-5 against the number after winning by double digits in their previous game. San Antonio is coming off an 89-69 win over Utah two nights ago, putting the team in that spot tonight. 9* Best Bet
JOE GAVAZZI
Dayton at Davidson (-3) 7:30 ET CBSC TV
1* – Dayton (+3)
Davidson has been one of the surprise teams in college basketball, opening 12-4 SU, 11-2 ATS. Their transition from the SoCon to the A10 was expected to be rocky. Though they are 3-2 SU in the league, they have already lost to the defensive poise and pressure of VCU and Richmond. Here is another Defensive Dandy, who will give them problems. Behind 4th year HC Archie Miller, Dayton advanced to the Elite 8 last year. Despite only 2 RS, the Flyers are at it again. They enter tonight on an 8 game winning streak with a 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS record in league play. In that 5-game start, they have allowed just 54 PPG to league foes. Let’s play this Defensive Dandy as underdog against a Wildcat team, whose 82 PPG offensive average took a major hit when they lost at Richmond (89-63) Saturday night. Before you take off the rubber band, note that under 25th year HC McKillop, the Wildcats are 40-7 SU at Belk L3+Y, including 8-0 SU this season.
Dayton at Davidson (-3) 7:30 ET CBSC TV
1* – Dayton (+3)
Davidson has been one of the surprise teams in college basketball, opening 12-4 SU, 11-2 ATS. Their transition from the SoCon to the A10 was expected to be rocky. Though they are 3-2 SU in the league, they have already lost to the defensive poise and pressure of VCU and Richmond. Here is another Defensive Dandy, who will give them problems. Behind 4th year HC Archie Miller, Dayton advanced to the Elite 8 last year. Despite only 2 RS, the Flyers are at it again. They enter tonight on an 8 game winning streak with a 5-0 SU, 4-0 ATS record in league play. In that 5-game start, they have allowed just 54 PPG to league foes. Let’s play this Defensive Dandy as underdog against a Wildcat team, whose 82 PPG offensive average took a major hit when they lost at Richmond (89-63) Saturday night. Before you take off the rubber band, note that under 25th year HC McKillop, the Wildcats are 40-7 SU at Belk L3+Y, including 8-0 SU this season.
