Chris Jordans analysis...
200♦ CARDINALS (LIST Smoltz and Parra) - At this point it’s easy to see the Cardinals are going to coast toward their sixth National League Central crown in 10 years. It’s almost as if they can smell the blood in the water at this point, and there’s no reason to think twice with the price suddenly dropping today, even if Manny Parra just beat the Cardinals and John Smoltz on Sept. 3. In fact, embrace the revenge angle and lay the chalk with confidence.
Over this season and last, the road team in this series is 14-6, including a 9-4 run this year. These took Labor Day off, but the Cardinals won the series opener 3-0 thanks to ace Chris Carpenter, who threw a one-hitter and struck out 10. The win marked St. Louis’ seventh in nine meetings.
St. Louis, which is 29-9 since July 27, is currently riding a 12-4 road streak in that span, including three of its last four during this current road trip. And with the Brewers on a 2-5 slide, I like my chances with Smoltz in revenge tonight.
200♦ ANGELS (LIST Kazmir and Hernandez) - Speaking of revenge, Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez just met in Seattle on Sept. 2, and both were lights out in what was a pitchers’ duel. Kazmir gave up just one earned run, scattered three hits and struck out eight while Hernandez gave up zilch and a mere four hits. Now back in Anaheim, I have to believe this is an awfully cheap price with a much better team overall.
I know Seattle’s ace right-hander is 10-2 with a 2.04 ERA in his last 19 starts, but due to the fact the Angels have struggled offensively lately, they’ve managed to split their last six games despite scoring three or fewer runs five times in that span. The due theory enters my head, as the home lights could spark the team at the right time. Besides, the Angels will be out for revenge after suffering two tough losses in Seattle. They’re on winning runs of 18-8 in game one of a series and 20-9 when hosting Seattle, which will be playing its fifth straight road game in as many days. The M’s are also playing their 21st straight game in as many days.
The Halos’ pitching has been sharp, with their starters boasting a 1.49 ERA in the last nine contests, and newcomer Kazmir is going to be looking to prove his worth on his ‘new’ home mound. Prior to his Angels debut, he threw quality starts in five of his last six outings for the Rays, while he’s struck out 18 over 12-1/3 innings in his last two starts overall. Seattle has lost six of seven on the road against southpaws, so I think I’m on the right side.
200♦ UNDER Athletics/White Sox (Action with any pitchers going) - Sometimes there’s nothing better than the numbers to go on, and that’s the case with this American League clash tonight. I’m not worried about the pitchers as much, since everything else tells me we have the right total here, based on team tendencies. To wit:
The Athletics, who will be playing their 18th straight game over the last 18 days, have arrived from Oakland on ‘under’ runs of 8-2 on Tuesday nights, 7-2 on the road and 8-3 when installed as an underdog.
The White Sox - who are also playing their 18th straight game in as many days, and are in off a tough and tiring series with the Red Sox - are on ‘under’ runs of 8-0 after a win, 13-3 on the natural surface and 19-7 overall.
These two aren’t going to be motivated tonight, not as much at the plate I should say, so I’ll play this one low.