5 Unit Play. GOTW. Take Under 8.5 between Minnesota @ Toronto (Tuesday @ 7pm est). You can always learn a lot from a game based on the line that is set for it. You notice both of these teams are set as small favorites? This is because both pitchers are expected to pitch well for the most part, but it shows more respect to the pitcher who is on the road to get the minus money. Brian Duensing is a talent from the University of Nebraska who is finally having an impact this year. He is 2-1 on the year with a 3.81era. He comes off back to back quality starts where he has given up just 1 run over his last 14 innings. His last start against the Whitesox was solid but the Twins still fell short 2-4 and he picked up a no-decision. I look for him to be just as sharp today. Romero comes off back to back losses as he has had a rough go of it lately facing the Yankees and Redsox in back to back games. I look for him to get back on track today. In his last two starts at home he has given up just four runs in 12 innings and I look for a bounce-back from him today. The Under is 5-0 for the Twins as Underdogs of late and the Under is 4-1-1 for the Jays against the AL Central of late.
Good luck,
IC
Good luck,
IC
Street Rosenthal
*300 New York Mets -105
I am taking the Mets as my big play tonight. I think they win this home game vs the Marlins. I have the Mets as 16-5 SU since 2004 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a win and it is the first game of a series. I also have the Mets starter Tim Redding as 9-1 SU in game one of a series and the Mets had more than 4 strike outs in their previous game. Take the Mets for the win.
*200 Philadelphia Phillies -141
I have the Phillies as 25-5 SU since 2005 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team left on base than their opponent as a favorite. I also have the Phillies as 19-5 since 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Finally, I have the Nationals as 0-12 SU since September 2008 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. Take the Phillies for the win.
*200 Chicago White Sox -148
I am taking the White Sox for the win tonight. I have a nice starter trend against the A's Pitcher Brett Tomko that is 0-15 SU since 2005. The Trend states that when Brett Tomko starts as away dog and line greater than 120 and the A's previous starter allowed no homer runs they are 0-15 SU. I also have the White Sox as 33-14 SU since 2006 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Take the White Sox for the win.
*300 New York Mets -105
I am taking the Mets as my big play tonight. I think they win this home game vs the Marlins. I have the Mets as 16-5 SU since 2004 at home within 20 cents of pickem after a win and it is the first game of a series. I also have the Mets starter Tim Redding as 9-1 SU in game one of a series and the Mets had more than 4 strike outs in their previous game. Take the Mets for the win.
*200 Philadelphia Phillies -141
I have the Phillies as 25-5 SU since 2005 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team left on base than their opponent as a favorite. I also have the Phillies as 19-5 since 2007 as a 140+ favorite after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks. Finally, I have the Nationals as 0-12 SU since September 2008 vs a team that has lost at least their last three games. Take the Phillies for the win.
*200 Chicago White Sox -148
I am taking the White Sox for the win tonight. I have a nice starter trend against the A's Pitcher Brett Tomko that is 0-15 SU since 2005. The Trend states that when Brett Tomko starts as away dog and line greater than 120 and the A's previous starter allowed no homer runs they are 0-15 SU. I also have the White Sox as 33-14 SU since 2006 at home vs a team that has won at least their last two games. Take the White Sox for the win.
Jack Jones
20* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -144
Take the Phillies to bust out of a 4-game losing streak against the Washington Nationals. The Nats are beyond bad, even at home where they are just 28-41 on the season. The Phillies are 41-27 this season on the road, including 5-1 at the Nationals (10-2 overall against them). Pedro Martinez starts for the Phillies, and while he hasn't exactly been outstanding, he has been a solid addition to the rotation, going 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA, including a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Nats' starter John Lannan has been good for his team at home, but he is 0-1 (Washington is 0-3) over his last 3 starts with a 8.59 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Phillies get things turned around against a team they have simply dominated this season.
20* No Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -144
Take the Phillies to bust out of a 4-game losing streak against the Washington Nationals. The Nats are beyond bad, even at home where they are just 28-41 on the season. The Phillies are 41-27 this season on the road, including 5-1 at the Nationals (10-2 overall against them). Pedro Martinez starts for the Phillies, and while he hasn't exactly been outstanding, he has been a solid addition to the rotation, going 3-0 with a 3.52 ERA, including a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Nats' starter John Lannan has been good for his team at home, but he is 0-1 (Washington is 0-3) over his last 3 starts with a 8.59 ERA and 1.70 WHIP. Phillies get things turned around against a team they have simply dominated this season.
hno:
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Orioles at Red Sox
Pick: Over 9.5
Sometimes a young pitcher “hits the wall” and we feel that is the case with rookie David Hernandez of the Orioles. The right-hander is only 24 years old and Baltimore has won just once in his last seven starts. In those outings, he’s allowed 24 earned runs on 39 hits and 23 walks in 34.1 innings of work. Yes, that works out to a 6.29 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. That is not going to get the job done at the big league level and we feel Hernandez will get “lit up” again here. He’s allowed 13 homers in his last 34.1 innings. The right-hander is a flyball pitcher and he now faces a powerful Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on a mild evening. The Red Sox will be getting their third look at Hernandez in the last six weeks and they hit him much harder in the second outing than they did in the first. In fact, Hernandez was quite lucky that he allowed just two earned runs against Boston at Camden Yards in early August. Hernandez lasted just 4.2 innings and he gave up four walks and seven hits so the damage easily could have been much worse. That is helping to give us some value here as this total is currently a 9.5 across the board. Note that, behind Hernandez, is an Orioles bullpen that is among the worst in the majors.
Unlike Baltimore, the Red Sox do have a solid bullpen. However, they could be asked to do too much here. We’re not sold on Clay Buchholz just yet. He’s struggled quite a bit in six of his last nine outings and one of those subpar efforts came against the Orioles when he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits and four walks in just four innings of work. For Buchholz, there are some match-up issues with the Orioles because they have a number of left-handed sticks and switch-hitters on their roster. Note that Buchholz has been hit at a .293 clip by left-handed batters this season. The Orioles scored 7 runs on 11 hits yesterday and they have averaged 9 hits per game over their last dozen games. They’ve also averaged nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for Boston, the Red Sox only managed 8 hits yesterday but they faced Mark Buehrle. Prior to yesterday’s game, Boston had managed at least 10 hits in 6 of their last 9 games. They’ve averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games. Play OVER the total in Boston as a 7* Regular Play selection.
Orioles at Red Sox
Pick: Over 9.5
Sometimes a young pitcher “hits the wall” and we feel that is the case with rookie David Hernandez of the Orioles. The right-hander is only 24 years old and Baltimore has won just once in his last seven starts. In those outings, he’s allowed 24 earned runs on 39 hits and 23 walks in 34.1 innings of work. Yes, that works out to a 6.29 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP. That is not going to get the job done at the big league level and we feel Hernandez will get “lit up” again here. He’s allowed 13 homers in his last 34.1 innings. The right-hander is a flyball pitcher and he now faces a powerful Red Sox lineup at hitter-friendly Fenway Park on a mild evening. The Red Sox will be getting their third look at Hernandez in the last six weeks and they hit him much harder in the second outing than they did in the first. In fact, Hernandez was quite lucky that he allowed just two earned runs against Boston at Camden Yards in early August. Hernandez lasted just 4.2 innings and he gave up four walks and seven hits so the damage easily could have been much worse. That is helping to give us some value here as this total is currently a 9.5 across the board. Note that, behind Hernandez, is an Orioles bullpen that is among the worst in the majors.
Unlike Baltimore, the Red Sox do have a solid bullpen. However, they could be asked to do too much here. We’re not sold on Clay Buchholz just yet. He’s struggled quite a bit in six of his last nine outings and one of those subpar efforts came against the Orioles when he allowed seven earned runs on nine hits and four walks in just four innings of work. For Buchholz, there are some match-up issues with the Orioles because they have a number of left-handed sticks and switch-hitters on their roster. Note that Buchholz has been hit at a .293 clip by left-handed batters this season. The Orioles scored 7 runs on 11 hits yesterday and they have averaged 9 hits per game over their last dozen games. They’ve also averaged nearly 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for Boston, the Red Sox only managed 8 hits yesterday but they faced Mark Buehrle. Prior to yesterday’s game, Boston had managed at least 10 hits in 6 of their last 9 games. They’ve averaged 5 runs per game in their last 14 games. Play OVER the total in Boston as a 7* Regular Play selection.
