Wunderdog
I rate each pick 1 to 5 units with 5 being the strongest play (read about units). Risk 1% of your bankroll per unit (never risk more than 5% of total bankroll on any pick).
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Cleveland -110 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total UNDER 10.5 -105 (risk 2 to win 1.9)
The Indians have waited a longtime for Fausto Carmona to pitch the way he did in '07, when he won 19 games. He has battled through injuries, rebuilding arm strength, and appears to be back where he was. Carmona has pitched to a 2.65 ERA in his last three starts, not allowing more than two runs in any of the three games. It is the first time he has done so since last May. The Angels are down to Trevor Bell for this one, and he did not impress in his debut vs. the Rays where he allowed four runs in 5.1 innings and served up two long balls. The Indians have relished the role of a favorite where they are 4-0 in their last four, and against a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.30 or higher, the Indians have cashed six of their last seven. All four of those games that the Tribe has won as a home favorite, have gone UNDER the total. These two teams have played 27-11-1 to the UNDER in their last 39 in Cleveland. I’m going with Cleveland and the UNDER here.
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Cleveland +1.5 runs -160 (runline) (risk 4 to win 2.5)
I went through a littany of reasons why I like the Indians in this one, and getting the plus side of the runline just adds to the value here. The Tribe is playing much better at 15-8 over their last 23 games, and would actually be an even better 17-6 to a would-be +1.5 runline over those same 23 games. I'm going with Cleveland on the runline here.
Game: Colorado at Washington (7:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Washington +160 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 4.8)
The Washington Nationals are suddenly playing extremely well, and are now 11-3 over their last 14 games. They have even done a good job agaisnt righthand pitching of late as well as on the road - winning three straight. The Nats are now also 13-5 in their last 18 in the role of an underdog. The Rockies were a very hot team, but have cooled off considerably and are just 6-6 in their last 12 after going 39-15, so they are ripe for the upset right now. The Rockies have not been very favorite-like on the road with Jimenez on the hill, where they are just 9-23 in his last 32 starts on the road. The Nats are hot, and a live dog here. I will go with Washington.
Game: Baltimore at Tampa Bay (7:20 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Tampa Bay -260 (moneyline) (risk 3 to win 1.2)
The Tampa Bay Rays are becoming nearly automatic at home, while the Birds continue their road woes, especially against lefthand pitching where the Birds are just 62-132 in their last 194 on the road and overall, are just 19-50. The Birds are also just 9-44 in their last 53 on the road with a moneyline of +201 or higher, indicating they win about one in five, where we are laying less than one in three here. The O's are also just 1-10 in Berken's last 11 starts as a dog. The Rays 96-39 in their last 135 home games overall. The Orioles have been bombing out in Tampa Bay as they are just 1-8 in their last nine. This looks chalky, but reality says this is more like a five-to-one game, so I will go with the Rays here.
