Jeff Benton Tuesday's 15 Dime winner ... 15 DIME: MARINERS (over Blue Jays) ... NOTE: List Rzepczynski (Toronto) and Washburn (Seattle) as the starting pitchers. If either does NOT start, this play is VOID!
Mariners
I’m sure there are more than a few ‘cappers out there going the other way with this play because of the way Seattle has performed so far on its homestand (four straight losses to sub-.500 teams by a combined score of 42-10) and because they believe Mariners lefty Jarrod Washburn is way overdue for an implosion. Obviously, I feel quite differently.
No question Seattle has been dreadful over the last four games, which includes three blowout losses to the pathetic Indians over the weekend followed my Monday’s 11-4 loss to Toronto when the M’s had red-hot ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. But I’m of the belief that this is nothing more than a mini-slump that all teams go through during the course of the season.
After all, prior to beginning this homestand, the Mariners had been on overall runs of 8-3 and 21-11, including going 9-4 at home. Also, this four-game skid is Seattle’s longest since it lost five in a row from May 4-9 (and that five-game slide is the team’s longest negative stretch of the year).
Despite the pitching implosion lately, the Mariners continue to lead the American League with a 3.90 team ERA. And a big reason for that is Washburn. The veteran is 8-6 with a 2.71 ERA, including 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA in 10 starts at home. Most recently, Washburn is 4-0 with a sick 0.61 ERA, giving up just two runs in 29 2/3 innings with a pair of home wins over Baltimore and Texas and two road victories at Cleveland and Detroit.
If you take out a 4-2 loss at the Yankees in which he pitched decently (four runs allowed, including three home runs in the Yankee Stadium bandbox, over seven innings), Washburn has given up seven runs (six earned) in six starts since June 19, pitching a total of 42 2/3 innings, good for a 1.27 ERA. The Mariners are also 5-0 in Washburn’s last five home starts, and even if you throw in a 1-0 home loss to Baltimore on June 1, the lefty has given up seven earned runs in his last six home outings, registering a 1.29 ERA.
Four more points about Washburn: 1) He’s gone at least six innings in 11 consecutive starts and 17 of his 19 outings this year; 2) he led the Mariners to three victories over Toronto last year, giving up four runs in 20 innings (1.80 ERA); 3) he’s still backed by strong bullpen (Seattle’s relievers have a 3.88 ERA on the season); and 4) he’s quite possibly making his last start for the Mariners, as Washburn has been the subject of trade rumors (think he doesn’t want to prove his worth to a playoff contender that’s looking to bolster its pitching staff?).
Finally, despite Monday’s result, the Blue Jays are still just 8-17 in their last 25 games overall, including 3-8 in their last 11 on the road, and they’ve lost six of their last seven games to left-handed starters. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won 21 of their last 29 games as a favorite and five of their last seven at home against Toronto. In fact, the host has won 14 of the last 20 in this rivalry.
This line is waaaaayy to short, guys. Take the value and ride the red-hot Washburn, who will stop Seattle’s losing skid and prevent Toronto from achieving its first three-game winning streak in more than a month.
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED BY IRONHORSE AND ME--------GL GUYS