Yankee Capper High Rollers Club
Exclusive MEMBERS ONLY Plays for Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009.
Current Club Record: 27-19
** 60% WINNERS **
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: FSNP, SNY
Pick: Over 7.5
For me, Betting the Over/Under in baseball is a lot like going to the dealership to buy a new vehicle. When doing so, you go there with a number in your head. If the salesman comes close to that number, or better yet beats it, you buy the car. When handicapping the total of a baseball game, the first thing I do is look at the game and pitching match-up days in advance and put a total on it myself. Then, wait until the lines are released and see how close I am to the number the oddsmakers came up with. Unlike buying a car, with betting when your line is in tune with the oddsmakers, you want to lay off. The advantage for me comes when my line significantly differs from that of the linesmakers.
In baseball, totals will go from 6.5 to 11.5, hardly ever higher or lower. Most games range between 8.5 and 9.5 and those are typically the games to lay off. When oddsmakers come upon a battle of aces, the line is generally 7.5. In a game where two not-so-great pitchers face off, or a rookie pitcher is up, or a hitter-friendly park hosts a battle of power hitters, the line will jump to the neighborhood of 10 to 11. The easiest thing to do is find a game that will go over 7.5 or stay under 11.5 and I love finding those games. Tonight is no exception...
Mets ace Johan Santana takes the mound to face the Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both pitchers have shown some pretty good stuff this year... Santana is sporting a 7-2 record with an ERA of under 2 while Duke comes in with a winning record and ERA under 3. On paper, this looks like one of those games that should easily stay under the total but I just don't think it will for a number of reasons. Start with bullpens... The Mets have a great one, but they're tired right now and the Pirates exposed that last night. That is going to force Johan Santana to go deep into this game, which shouldn't be much of a problem for him. While I expect the Buccos to muster a few runs off the Mets ace, I believe he will dominate most of the game. Mets hitters are pounding Leftys this year to the tune of nearly 6 runs per game. I would expect that trend to continue tonight against Duke. I look for the Mets to hit Duke pretty good tonight and cause a fairly early exit. If they manage 4 runs off Duke, and another 4 scattered throughout the rest of the game against the Pirates bullpen, the Mets alone should go over the total of 7.5.
The Pirates offense is a wild card in and of itself. Regardless of who and where they are playing, and who the opposing pitchers is, this team has the ability to score runs. I'm certainly not counting on that against Santana, nor am I at all factoring that into my decision, but it is a nice ace to have up your sleeve.
I'm looking for a 8-3 Mets win tonight in the 'Burgh. Don't get nervous if this one is still scoreless after a few innings. As an added bonus, we are getting around +115 odds for the over! High Rollers, count on this one rolling over the posted total of 7.5
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Good Luck!
Yank
Exclusive MEMBERS ONLY Plays for Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009.
Current Club Record: 27-19
** 60% WINNERS **
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05pm EST
PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA
TV: FSNP, SNY
Pick: Over 7.5
For me, Betting the Over/Under in baseball is a lot like going to the dealership to buy a new vehicle. When doing so, you go there with a number in your head. If the salesman comes close to that number, or better yet beats it, you buy the car. When handicapping the total of a baseball game, the first thing I do is look at the game and pitching match-up days in advance and put a total on it myself. Then, wait until the lines are released and see how close I am to the number the oddsmakers came up with. Unlike buying a car, with betting when your line is in tune with the oddsmakers, you want to lay off. The advantage for me comes when my line significantly differs from that of the linesmakers.
In baseball, totals will go from 6.5 to 11.5, hardly ever higher or lower. Most games range between 8.5 and 9.5 and those are typically the games to lay off. When oddsmakers come upon a battle of aces, the line is generally 7.5. In a game where two not-so-great pitchers face off, or a rookie pitcher is up, or a hitter-friendly park hosts a battle of power hitters, the line will jump to the neighborhood of 10 to 11. The easiest thing to do is find a game that will go over 7.5 or stay under 11.5 and I love finding those games. Tonight is no exception...
Mets ace Johan Santana takes the mound to face the Zach Duke and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Both pitchers have shown some pretty good stuff this year... Santana is sporting a 7-2 record with an ERA of under 2 while Duke comes in with a winning record and ERA under 3. On paper, this looks like one of those games that should easily stay under the total but I just don't think it will for a number of reasons. Start with bullpens... The Mets have a great one, but they're tired right now and the Pirates exposed that last night. That is going to force Johan Santana to go deep into this game, which shouldn't be much of a problem for him. While I expect the Buccos to muster a few runs off the Mets ace, I believe he will dominate most of the game. Mets hitters are pounding Leftys this year to the tune of nearly 6 runs per game. I would expect that trend to continue tonight against Duke. I look for the Mets to hit Duke pretty good tonight and cause a fairly early exit. If they manage 4 runs off Duke, and another 4 scattered throughout the rest of the game against the Pirates bullpen, the Mets alone should go over the total of 7.5.
The Pirates offense is a wild card in and of itself. Regardless of who and where they are playing, and who the opposing pitchers is, this team has the ability to score runs. I'm certainly not counting on that against Santana, nor am I at all factoring that into my decision, but it is a nice ace to have up your sleeve.
I'm looking for a 8-3 Mets win tonight in the 'Burgh. Don't get nervous if this one is still scoreless after a few innings. As an added bonus, we are getting around +115 odds for the over! High Rollers, count on this one rolling over the posted total of 7.5
--
Good Luck!
Yank
