Service Plays Tuesday 06/02/09

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ack Jones 06-02-09
MLB | Jun 02 '09 (7:05p)
Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers
Detroit Tigers -125 at sia
15* on Detroit Tigers -125

The Tigers are the play at home tonight against the Boston Red Sox. The starting pitching match up here makes this a solid bet. Rick Porcello has been excellent for the Tigers, going 6-3 so far this season with a 3.48 ERA. In his last 3 starts, Porcello is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. Meanwhile, the Red Sox will have Daisuke Matsuzaka on the mound. Dice-K has been terrible since being activated from the DL, the Red Sox losing in his last 3 starts while he has posted a 9.82 ERA and a 2.36 WHIP. Boston is now just 12-16 on the road and the Tigers are 15-7 at home. Jump all over Detroit. -=

TOP PLAY =- MLB | Jun 02 '09 (10:10p)
Arizona D-Backs vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers -114 at 5dimes20*
No-Brainer on LA Dodgers -114

I'll take the Dodgers over the D-Backs with a couple of very good pitchers on the mound. Both Dan Haren for Arizona and Randy Wolf for LA have been solid all season, the biggest difference being that the D-Backs are just 5-5 in Haren's 10 starts this year, while the Dodgers have notched 7 wins in Randy Wolf's 11 starts. The reason for this is pretty simple, the Dodgers have scored 5.5 runs per game this season, while the Diamondbacks are scoring only 4.2. What makes this the best bet of the day is that, as bad as the Arizona offense is, it is even worse against left-handed starters where they are hitting just .213 as a team and scoring only 3.1 runs per game. The D-Back's record against lefties so far this season is 5-10. Add another loss to that column tonight.
 

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Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NHL Hockey
Game: Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins - Tuesday June 2, 2009 8:05 pm
Pick: 3 units TOTAL: Under 5.5 (-110)

The most obvious thing about this key game 3 is that it is a “make or break” game for Pens, just like last year’s finals, when they were also in an 0-2 “hole” after losing games one and two in “Hockey Town,” but at least made things interesting for awhile, with their 3-2 win in game 3. And while we would not be at all surprised with a similar result TY, and would not go against Pens in this “must win” (for them) game, how much sense does it make to lay this “heavy” 150 money line price tag (placed on Pens) against last year’s Stanley Cup champs, and probably this year’s as well? Very little, in our opinion. And the puck line? Give me a break – that’s not even worth considering for either team here, and was barely even worth mentioning.

So if we want to play this game, that leaves the total as the only remaining option, but fortunately (we hope) for us, we see taking the UNDER 5.5 goals here as a good option.

It’s unusual for a Stanley Cup finals match-up to have as much recent “history” as this one does, but that’s the situation here, with these two having also played six games in LY’s finals, won 4-2 by Detroit. And in the ten games played so far between them since last may, the under is 2-6-2, with an average of just 5.2 gpg, but both of the “pushes” were 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, and would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And looking at the 3 games played LY in Pitt, plus Detroit’s 3-0 regular season win there TY, the series under is 0-4 to the under, with an average of just 4 total gpg scored.

And if we look at the totals results for both teams games in their respective modes for this game (Pitt at home, and Wings away), based on playoff games this year (but excluding Wing’s easy first round wins over a Blue Jackets team that showed their total lack of playoff experience by easily getting ‘swept away’ by Wings) and in last year’s finals against each other, plus TY’s regular season Wings - Pens game at the Igloo, Detroit is 3-4-2 to the under on the road, with an average of just 5.0 total gpg, while Pens are 3-7-2 to the under at home, with an average of 5.55 total gpg, noting again that the two totals “pushes” for each team were the two 5 goal games at Pitt in LY’s finals, both of which would have been “unders” vs the totals line of 5.5 set for this game. And speaking of those two pushes at Pitt in LY’s finals, and the totals line, note that this could be our final “shot” at an under play in this series with a line of 5.5, as another under in game 3 would make it 3 straight unders for the series, which will likely cause the line makers to “chop” the total down to 5 (or if still 5.5, at least burden the under with heavy “juice”). In any event, combining and averaging the above #s, and counting the four Wings-Pens games at the Igloo just 4X, not 8X, gives the UNDER a significant 9-6-2 edge, and a projected 5.27 goals being scored in this game 3.

So based on all of the foregoing support, we’ll make this 3 unit pick on UNDER 5.5 goals, just like our game two win for 3 units on the under.
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David Malinsky confirmed MLB picks

New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates 7:05 PM ET
under 7.5

Phillies (RL) at Padres (RL) 10:05 PM ET
Phillies (RL)
 
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SPORTS ADVISORS

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cincinnati (27-23) at St. Louis (29-22)

These N.L. Central rivals continue their four-game series at Busch Stadium, with Cardinals right-hander Brad Thompson (0-1, 4.30 ERA) set to make his first start of the season against the Reds’ Bronson Arroyo (7-3, 5.12).

Cincinnati lost starting pitcher Edinson Volquez to injury after just one inning Monday, but rallied from a 2-0 deficit to win 5-3 and halt a three-game slide overall and a six-game road losing skid. Despite last night’s win, the Reds are still just 4-7 in their last 11 against right-handed starters, but they’re 7-3 in their last 10 Tuesday outings.

St. Louis has followed up a 9-2 run by dropping consecutive games. Still, the Redbirds are on surges of 23-10 at Busch Stadium (6-2 last eight), 5-2 against N.L. Central foes, 7-2 against teams with a winning record and 4-0 in Game 2 of a series.

The Reds have now taken three of four meetings against the Cards this season, but the host has won eight of the last 11 clashes dating to last summer. Additionally, Cincinnati is still just 16-36 in its last 52 games in St. Louis.

Arroyo was sensational in Wednesday’s 6-1 home win over Houston, pitching a complete-game five-hitter, and he needed just 92 pitches to finish the job. He’s 2-1 with a 1.88 ERA in his last three starts, allowing just five runs in 24 innings after surrendering 14 runs in his previous two starts covering only eight innings.

Cincy is 7-3 in Arroyo’s last 10 starts overall and 8-3 in his last 11 on Tuesday, and the veteran right-hander is 4-1 with a 3.06 ERA in five starts on the highway (as opposed to 3-2 with a 7.58 ERA at home). However, Arroyo is just 5-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 19 career games (17 starts) against the Cardinals, with the Reds losing four of his last five starts in St. Louis.

Thompson’s season has been limited to nine relief appearances covering 14 2/3 innings, and he’s given up six runs on 10 hits in 10 innings at home (5.40 ERA). Last year at Busch, he went 3-2 with a 4.50 ERA in 13 games (three starts). St. Louis won six of Thompson’s last eight starts overall in 2008, it is 9-2 in his last 11 at home and 8-1 in his last nine against N.L. Central rivals. Finally, the right-hander is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in 19 career games (four starts) against Cincinnati.

The under is 5-1 in Thompson’s last six starts overall, 4-0-1 in his last five on Tuesday, 4-1 in Arroyo’s last five road outings, 5-1-1 in his last seven on Tuesday and 6-1-1 in his last eight starts versus the Cardinals.

St. Louis carries “under” streaks of 10-3 overall, 7-0 at home, 6-1 versus divisional rivals and 7-1 against right-handed starters. Meanwhile, the under is 15-6-1 in the Reds’ last 22 road games and 11-3-3 in their last 17 on Tuesday. Finally, last night’s game barely stayed under the total, ending a seven-game “over” streak in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS and UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (29-22) at Detroit (28-21)

The surging Tigers return to Comerica Park following a winning road trip and open a three-game series against the Red Sox with Rick Porcelllo (6-3, 3.48) set to oppose winless Boston right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka (0-3, 8.82).

Detroit finished a 4-3 road trip with consecutive wins over the Orioles over the weekend, prevailing 6-3 on Saturday and 3-0 on Sunday. The Tigers are 11-5 in their last 16 contests and they’ve won 10 of their last 13 at Comerica Park, though they’ve struggled offensively, scoring four runs or fewer in eight of their last 11 games. Detroit is 13-3 in its last 16 contests when favored and it has won five straight against clubs with a winning record, but Jim Leyland’s team has lost 10 of its last 12 on Tuesday and five of its last six after an off day.

Boston, which also was idle Monday, is coming off Sunday’s 8-2 rout of the Blue Jays in Toronto, but remains just 4-6 in its last 10 overall, including 3-4 on a current 10-game road trip. The Red Sox have also dropped four of their last five as an underdog. On the bright side, Terry Francona’s squad remains on streaks of 14-6 against winning teams, 48-18 after a day off, 47-20 against the A.L. Central, 22-9 in series openers and 23-11 on Tuesday.

The Red Sox went 3-2 against the Detroit last year, taking three of four meetings at Comerica Park. Still, the home team 9-5 in the last 14 head-to-head clashes.

Matsuzaka’s miserable 2009 season continued Wednesday at Minnesota as he allowed three runs on nine hits and three walks in five innings, losing 4-2 in his second start back after missing five weeks with an arm injury. The right-hander hasn’t had a quality start in four trips to the mound this season, going 0-1 with a 12.00 ERA in two road outings., Despite Matsuzaka’s struggles this season, the Red Sox are still 31-11 in his last 42 starts overall, 8-2 in his last 10 road starts, 8-1 in his last nine against the A.L. Central.

Dice-K is 3-1 with a 2.81 ERA in four career starts against the Tigers, including 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two contests last season (5-0 home win, 6-3 victory in Detroit).

Porcello was outstanding in five starts in May, going 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA, including 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA at home. He walked six and struck out 20, and of the 13 home runs allowed last month, six came on home runs. The rookie right-hander is 3-1 with a 3.18 ERA in four starts at Comerica Park, and tonight marks his first career appearance against the Red Sox.

The under is on a 10-4-2 roll in this rivalry. Additionally, Boston carries “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all on the road), 5-1 as an underdog, 4-0 when facing right-handed starters, 9-3-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 when Matsuzaka faces A.L. Central foes. Finally, the “under” for the Tigers is on runs of 10-3 overall, 6-0 at home, 10-1 on Tuesday, 9-3 against righty starters and 7-3 versus the A.L. East.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
 

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tom stryker
3)L.a dodgers
3)seattle mariners
(paid by me)

Hell with all the free picks, start buying and posting
free picks only hit 42%, waiste of time
 
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DUNKEL

Cleveland at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 7-0 record in Kevin Slowey's last 7 home starts when the total is set between 9 and 10 1/2 runs. Minnesota is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155).

Game 951-952: NY Mets at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.846; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.098
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-185); Over

Game 953-954: San Francisco at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.342; Washington (Stammen) 14.472
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+135); Under

Game 955-956: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.813; Atlanta (Kawakami) 15.891
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under

Game 957-958: Milwaukee at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 16.390; Florida (Sanchez) 15.257
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: Colorado at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 14.175; Houston (Paulino) 15.514
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+120); Under

Game 961-962: Cincinnati at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 15.253; St. Louis (Thompson) 16.486
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Philadelphia at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Bastardo) 14.588; San Diego (Peavy) 16.148
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-200); Under

Game 965-966: Arizona at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Haren) 15.240; LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.695
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Over

Game 967-968: Boston at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Matsuzaka) 16.719; Detroit (Porcello) 15.642
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+125); Over

Game 969-970: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Padilla) 16.943; NY Yankees (Burnett) 16.634
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+165); Over

Game 971-972: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Saunders) 14.144; Toronto (Halladay) 14.907
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-170); 8
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-170); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 14.477; Tampa Bay (Sonnastine) 14.597
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-150); Over

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 14.950; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.660
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-155); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-155); Under

Game 977-978: Oakland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 15.355; White Sox (Colon) 15.069
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 979-980: Baltimore at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 15.035; Seattle (Bedard) 16.139
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-155); Over


NHL

Detroit at Pittsburgh

The Penguins look to get back into the series and take advantage of Detroit's 0-4 record in its last 4 games as a road underdog. Pittsburgh is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150).

Game 5-6: Detroit at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 13.793; Pittsburgh 14.320
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Over
 

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Lance's Lock


Overall record: 795-680-30

Current streak: 2 wins

Todays play: The Padres -175
 

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GINA

Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays

Los Angeles' Joe Saunders (6-3, 3.26) is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in his last three starts. The lefthander is 1-2 with a 3.62 ERA in four career starts versus the Blue Jays.Toronto's Roy Halladay (8-1, 2.63 ERA) is 1-0 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts. The right-hander is 7-5 with a 4.35 ERA in career 15 outings against the Angels.Go with Toronto at home. The struggling Blue Jays have dropped ten of their last 12 games overall, but have won six its last 7 games at Rogers Centre and nine of the last 13 contests against the Angels in Toronto.

Toronto Blue Jays -170
 

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MLB Computer Picks

New York Yankees -200 * * *

Atlanta Braves -120

Chicago White Sox -145

Best Bet ***
 

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06/02/09
11:45 AM Smart Money MLB Wiseguys taking #962 St. Louis.

06/02/09
11:28 AM Smart Money MLB Wiseguys just hit #965 Arizona UNDER.
 
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Jimmy Boyd

Cubs at Braves
Pick: Cubs +110

Chicago outscored Atlanta 49-18 in sweeping six meetings last season and I expect the Cubs to continue their dominance against the Braves tonight. Atlanta is 0-6 at home with a money line of -100 to -125 this season, losing in these spots by an average score of 2.2 to 6.3. The Cubs have won 4 of their last 6 while the Braves have dropped 5 of their last 7. I expect the Cubs to have the edge on the hill as well as the Braves are 0-5 in Kawakami's last 5 starts as a favorite. Bet the Cubs.
 
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Scott Rickenbach

Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Pittsburgh vs Detroit

After going over the total in six out of seven games, the Penguins have now seen their games stay under three straight times! Note that Pittsburgh, after three or more consecutive unders has seen the over go 9-2 (82%) in their next game. Additionally, note that Pittsburgh has now played four straight road games. They have not been home since Game Two in the Carolina series on May 21st and this is significant to note because, after playing 3 or more consecutive road games, the Penguins have the seen the over go 8-3 (73%) in their next game. We’re putting these trends of a combined 17-5 (77%) to work for us here because of two key reasons. First off, these trends absolutely are logical – more on that below. Secondly, the way this match-up changes with Pittsburgh now going home also supports the over. Let’s get to work! The reason such a high percentage of Penguins games go over after three or more consecutive unders is because, by nature, Pittsburgh is a high-scoring team. You’re not going to hold down Pittsburgh for ever. Now, being at home and therefore getting the final line change, the Red Wings will not be able to match-up as well against Penguins stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. Also, it’s not as if the Pens weren’t getting some scoring chances in Detroit. The Penguins actually outshot the Red Wings in each game. As for the trend above about Pittsburgh going over at a high clip when they return home after a lengthy road trip, this also makes perfect sense. Coming home after being away for so long means a wild, home crowd and it also means a concerted effort from the home team to jump on their opponent and get the crowd into it. Of course the fact that, in this instance, we’re talking about playoff hockey and it’s the Red Wings in town in the Stanley Cup Finals means that there is no doubt about the intensity the Pens and the crowd are going to bring to this one. This is especially true with former Pen, Marian Hossa, leaving Pittsburgh to join Detroit before this season! This game will be played out more in “Penguins style” and, under coach Dan Bylsma, that means a very aggressive offensive approach. The Pens can, and should, get their fair share of goals tonight. However, the Red Wings have scored at least three goals in 15 of their 18 post-season games and Pens goalie Marc-Andre Fleury hasn’t been overly sharp in this series thus far. This is why we fully expect this game to be a very high-scoring affair as the Pens, who had scored at least three goals in 18 of their last 20 games, get their scoring back on track on home ice with the benefit of the final line change allowing for more favorable match-ups. Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh as a Top Play selection.


Regular Play: Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ Atlanta

Randy Wells is arguably the best pitcher in baseball who has made at least four starts and yet doesn’t have a win to show for it! Wells is 0-2 so far this season but he’s compiled a miniscule 1.80 ERA and, in fact, adding in his stats from his four appearances last season makes Wells numbers even more impressive. He’s compiled a 1.48 ERA in his MLB career and he’s held hitters to a .208 BAA! Look for him to be able to keep the Braves bats “in check” here as Atlanta’s struggles at the plate continue. Note that Atlanta’s bats finally made some noise in scoring big in two of their three games with Arizona over the weekend. However, the Braves have still been held to four runs or less in 11 of their last 16 games! In 8 of those 11 low-scoring efforts the Braves were held to two runs or less! That is simply amazing offensive futility and, even though they erupted for big runs on Sunday, Atlanta hasn’t produced back to back strong efforts at the plate in nearly two full weeks! The Braves will most certainly struggle with the offerings of Wells here! Wells and Chicago should also benefit from plenty of run support here as the Cubs should have no trouble with the offerings of Kenshin Kawakami. The Braves right-hander was solid in his most recent home start as he pitched extremely aggressively against the Blue Jays and it paid off. However, in his next start the “memo” had been released on Kawakami’s “new approach” to hitters and he got tattooed by a Giants club that is not known for it’s hitting prowess! The Braves hurler allowed four runs (three earned) on nine hits and four walks in less than six innings of work. Yes, that’s too many baserunners and, yes, that is likely to be repeated tonight. The Cubs will attack his offerings from the first pitch in this one and Kawakami’s fastball is really just mediocre and sometimes it’s even just plain flat! Also, just as happened against the Giants, Kawakami really can’t rely on his fastball and when he lacks command he struggles mightily like he did against San Francisco. We look for more of the same here! Play the Chicago Cubs on the money line as a regular selection.


Regular Play: OVER the total in Houston vs Colorado

Yesterday’s game ended 4 to 1 but the teams combined for 18 hits, including two homers, and there certainly could have been a lot more runs put up on the scoreboard. For the Rockies, this was their 2nd straight frustrating day at the plate. However, right after their coaching change they won their first two games by a combined score of 11 to 7 and, with Jim Tracy now at the helm and a renewed atmosphere in the clubhouse, we’re confident the Rockies bats will return tonight. They will certainly be helped by facing Felipe Paulino of the Astros. The Houston right-hander has had an awful season thusfar and is very likely on his way out of the rotation. Thankfully, before he departs the rotation, we get one more chance to “fade” him by taking the over in this match-up. In the month of May, Paulino got roughed up at a .373 clip and compiled a 10.80 ERA. Keep in mind, the Rockies just tattooed him in Colorado about three weeks ago. A quick second look for the Rocks is bad news for Mr. Paulino. The Astros hurler has allowed seven homers in his last 16 innings on the mound and this included two at Colorado on May 12th. He struggles again here and note that the Astros bullpen has certainly not been a strength this season! The good news for Houston fans is that, even though their pitching is expected to struggle here, the Astros bats should give the fans plenty to cheer about! The Rockies bullpen has also been a concern this season and, like the Astros pen, they may be called upon early in this one too! That’s because Ubaldo Jimenez faces a tough match-up here. Even though Jimenez had a solid May to rebound from a tough April, he does not match up all that well with Houston. Yes, Jimenez has decent career numbers against the Astros but he’s struggled against left-handed sticks this season. The Rockies right-hander has a 1.75 WHIP and a .300 BAA when facing left-handed lumber. The reason that is such a key here is because the Astros bats that need to perk up our mostly left-handed sticks and switch-hitters (like Lance Berkman). The Astros right-handed lumber includes a number of big sticks who have performed well this season. So, look for those guys to stay hot but also look for some of the Astros slumbering lumber to wake up against Jimenez. He’ll provide the perfect anecdote to what’s been ailing them! Yesterday the Astros lineup of position players showed six of the eight hitting at least .282 on the season. Three of those six are hitting at least .341 on the year. Also, of the two guys below .282, note that Ivan Rodriguez is 2 for 5 in his career against Jimenez and Berkman should enjoy success as the Rockies right-hander continues to struggle against left-handed bats. Berkman did drive in two yesterday as did Carlos Lee and his 3 for 3 performance showed his bat is alive and well again. Look for plenty of offense here as we like the Astros lineup and we also like the fact that the Rockies should again have no trouble with the offerings of Paulino. Play OVER the total in Houston as a regular selection.
 

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Root
Chairman-----------Boston
Mill-----------------------LA Dodgers
NL------------------------Seattle
 

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