Service Plays Tuesday 02/10/09

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Alf Musketa

Toronto at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota

Wow, really bad line here as both teams are struggling. Minnesota has lost 3 in a row, while Toronto has dumped 6 in a row. A closer look reveals that Minnesota has lost to Top teams, New Orleans, Houston, Atlanta, Boston and the Lakers recently, while Toronto has lost to Memphis and Milwaukee in that same span of games.
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John Ryan

Seton Hall vs. Depaul
Play: Depaul +1.5

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on DePaul as they host Seton Hall slated to start at 9:00 EST. Looks like two teams heading in opposite directions, but take a look at the following system. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has produced a record of 38-12 for 75% winners since 1997. Play against a favorite off 2 straight wins against conference rivals facing an opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more. SH has won 4 straight games and covered 3 of those 4 ATS. They last won at Rutgers by 5 points and defeated STJ by 10 in a home game. DePaul has lost 11 straight games and 4 straight against the number. They were defeated by Marquette by 15 points and in their last game they lost by 25 points to Pittsburgh. DePaul HC is an excellent investment as a home dog and following a home dog game noting he is a solid 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) after playing a game as a home dog. SH is just not in a good spot for this game noting they are just 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after playing a game as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons; 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Take DePaul
 

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ATS Lock Club
4 Witchita St. -6
3 Villanova -4.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Seton Hall -1
3 Hawks -7.5
 

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SCOTT RICKENBACH
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{font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </style><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;} </style> <![endif]-->Scott Rickenbach's College Hoops Game #723 - 1* (regular play) Providence Friars (-) @ South Florida @ 7 PM ET
 

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Bell's Best Premium Picks ( 2-1 yesterday huge winner on Kansas )

NBA:

Bullies - 2.5
Cavs - 6.5 ( small play )

NcaaB:

Prov - 1
Marq + 5
Mich + 4
 

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SCOTT RICKENBACH
<LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel=File-List><LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx" rel=themeData><LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml" rel=colorSchemeMapping><STYLE> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </STYLE>6-0 RUN** BIG EAST *SMASH

<LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_filelist.xml" rel=File-List><LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_themedata.thmx" rel=themeData><LINK href="file:///C:%5CUsers%5CScott%5CAppData%5CLocal%5CTemp%5Cmsohtmlclip1%5C01%5Cclip_colorschememapping.xml" rel=colorSchemeMapping><STYLE> <!-- /* Font Definitions */ @font-face {font-family:"Cambria Math"; panose-1:2 4 5 3 5 4 6 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:roman; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1107304683 0 0 159 0;} @font-face {font-family:Calibri; panose-1:2 15 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 4; mso-font-charset:0; mso-generic-font-family:swiss; mso-font-pitch:variable; mso-font-signature:-1610611985 1073750139 0 0 159 0;} /* Style Definitions */ p.MsoNormal, li.MsoNormal, div.MsoNormal {mso-style-unhide:no; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; margin-top:0in; margin-right:0in; margin-bottom:10.0pt; margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman";} .MsoChpDefault {mso-style-type:export-only; mso-default-props:yes; font-size:10.0pt; mso-ansi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-bidi-font-size:10.0pt; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri;} @page Section1 {size:8.5in 11.0in; margin:1.0in 1.0in 1.0in 1.0in; mso-header-margin:.5in; mso-footer-margin:.5in; mso-paper-source:0;} div.Section1 {page:Section1;} --> </STYLE>Scott Rickenbach's College Hoops Game #723 - 1* (regular play) Providence Friars (-) @ South Florida @ 7 PM ET
Whats the play?
 
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Cajun-Sports Executive- Tuesday


Handicapper: Cajun Sports
New York Knicks vs. Golden State Warriors (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-106 Golden State Warriors Play Title: Cajun Sports NBA "Power Play" Winner 58-27 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Oracle Arena will be the site of tonight’s east meets west clash between the host Golden State Warriors and the visiting New York Knicks. The Knicks have lost four straight games and covered the spread in only two of those losses. The Warriors are coming in off a home win over the Utah Jazz on Sunday winning 116 to 96 and covering as a 2 point home underdog.

New York is 21-29 straight up and 29-21 against the spread this season. The Knicks are 7-17 SU and 14-10 ATS on the road this year and over their last five games they are 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS averaging 109.8 points per game on 45.8 percent shooting from the field and they are allowing 113.0 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting. New York is 25-43 ATS when they allow 105 or more points in a game the last two seasons and Golden State is 13-5 ATS at home when they score 105 or more points this season.

These teams met back in November at MSG with the Warriors allowing a season-high 138 points and the Knicks won the game 138 to 125. This is a much different Warriors team that the Knicks will face tonight with Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis in the lineup, both missed the first meeting at MSG. Golden State has more depth in their lineup for this meeting as injuries and suspensions limited them in the early months of the season but it is now beginning to pay dividends.

Golden State when coming off an ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite they are 71-49-4 ATS if they have a line range of 2-3.5 points their record is 20-8 ATS in that situation. The Warriors coming in off a SU/ATS win and going ‘under’ in their last game and now installed as a favorite of 2-3.5 points are 15-5 ATS if they are a home favorite their record is 11-3 ATS. If they are playing at home in that situation their record is 21-9 ATS their last 30 qualified games. The Warriors are 23-9 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as an underdog the last 3 seasons.

Golden State is 17-35 straight up and 24-26 against the spread overall this year. When playing at Oracle they are 12-12 SU but a very solid 15-8 ATS averaging 112.5 points per game on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 109.4 points per game on 45.1 percent shooting from the field.

Data base research has uncovered key NBA Systems that are active for tonight’s game. Play AGAINST NBA teams after losing straight up, winning against the spread and going ‘over’ on the road in their last game if they are now a road underdog of 2-3.5 points, 28-46-1 ATS. Play ON NBA favorites revenging a straight up loss as a road favorite, with a losing record on the season, 58-27 ATS the last five years.

With significant technical and situational support for the host we will lay the short price with the Warriors as they avenge that early season loss to the Knicks.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Golden State Warriors 124 NY Knicks 108


Handicapper: Cajun Sports
Missouri State vs. Wichita State (NCAAB) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -6/-105 Wichita State Play Title: Cajun Sports CBB Super System Avenger 41-7 ATS
Click Here to View Pick Analysis
The Charles Koch Arena will be the site of tonight’s Missouri Valley Conference clash between the host Wichita State Shockers and the visiting Missouri State Bears. Both teams enter tonight’s contest off losses, the Bears lost at home to Southern Illinois 72 to 64 as a 2.5 point home favorite while the Shockers lost at Evansville 61 to 52 as a 4.5 point road underdog.

Missouri State is 10-14 straight up and 7-15 against the spread overall on the year. When playing away from home they are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS averaging 58.3 points per game on 38.7 percent shooting and allowing 69.3 points per game on 48.3 percent shooting from the field. Over their last five games the Bears are 1-4 SU and 0-4 ATS being outscored by almost ten points per game. Conference play has not been any better for Missouri State as they are 3-10 SU and 3-9 ATS shooting only 38.3 percent from the field and allowing opponents to shoot 46.7 percent.

Missouri State is 5-15 ATS versus teams outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game the last 2 seasons, 9-21 ATS versus teams allowing <=64 points per game the last 2 seasons and 0-6 ATS in road games versus teams allowing <=64 points per game after 15+ games the last 2 seasons.

Wichita State is 11-13 straight up and 9-10 against the number this season overall. When playing on their home floor they are 9-3 SU and 3-4 ATS averaging 64.7 points per game on 46.0 percent shooting and allowing 56.7 points per game on 40.6 percent shooting from the field.

These teams met back on January 14 in Springfield with the Bears winning 68 to 55 as a 3.5 point home favorite. The Bears are in a negative situation for this meeting as they are 3-6 ATS as a road underdog this season and averaging 55 points per game their last three on the highway. The Shockers didn’t help their own cause in that meeting as they turned the ball over nineteen times and we do not expect a repeat performance in that department this time around.

This series has been dominated by the Shockers when they meet in Wichita with a 10-1 SU and ATS record in all meetings since 1997. We also see that the Bears after playing at home in their last game and are now installed as a road underdog are 19-34-1 ATS and if they have a line range of 3-6.5 points their record is 5-15 ATS.

With significant fundamental, technical and situational support for the host we will back the Shockers here as they avenge that earlier loss to the Bears and roll to an easy win on Tuesday night.


PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: (3*) Wichita State 68 Missouri State 56
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Lee Kostroski

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 7* Wichita State (-6) vs. Missouri State, Tuesday at 8:00 PM EST

We see great value in the Shockers as a small home favorite on Tuesday night. Wichita State has won 5 of their last 7 including 4 straight home wins. They lost @Evansville by 9 on Saturday, so this will be a game in which they'll want a bounce-back performance. Despite out-rebounding Evansville by 10, they shot just 2-16 from three-point range. The Shockers are 9-3 at home this season, holding opponents to just 56.7 points per game in their 12 home games. Missouri State has lost 7 straight road games and is just 1-8 on the road this season (all losses coming by a combined 11 points per game).

After starting the season at a promising 7-3, Missouri State has posted just a 3-11 record since late December. In their last 6 road games (all losses), their margins of defeat are 24, 11, 12, 14, 5, and 18 points. They have one of the worst offenses in the nation; shooting an average of 39.1% field goals this season, and 31.3% from three point range. They have just one player averaging over 10 points per game. If Wichita State gets any lead whatsoever, don’t expect to see Missouri State make a comeback.

Wichita State is coming off of that road loss to @Evansville on Saturday, as well as their January 14th road loss @Missouri State. This is a great revenge situation for the Shockers who are playing very good basketball right now, against Missouri State, who has lost 7 of their last 10. Missouri State is just 6-20 ATS in their last 26 road games and 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings @Wichita State. Go with the Shockers at home on Tuesday night.
 
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 4* Virginia (+11) vs. Florida State, 7:00 PM EST

FSU is coming off a big time resume’ building upset @ Clemson on Saturday. It was a huge win for the Noles who rallied from a 19-point second half deficit to grab the close win. They were catching the Tigers in a great spot for a letdown as Clemson had just come off a blowout win over Duke. This team was looking for a “signature win” and now they got it. Leading scorer Toney Douglas knelt at midcourt after the huge come from behind win and stated, “This win is going to go down in history.” Do you think this team is going to be concerned with a 1-7 ACC team just a few days after this monumental win? A UVA team they already beat on the road. No chance. Not only that, FSU takes on Wake Forest this Saturday which will also waver their focus here. A classic sandwich situation for the home team here which will lead to a letdown.

The one thing that stands out to us about this Virginia that is only 1-7 SU in the ACC is they have been fairly competitive in nearly all of their conference games. That’s a good mix for a cover on the road, getting double digits and facing a disinterested FSU team. If you take away the Cavs road game @ Duke where they were dominated, this team has really had a chance in every game. Their road games include a 10-point loss @ Minnesota, a 3-point loss @ Syracuse, a win @ Georgia Tech, a 3-point loss @ Virginia Tech, a 6-point loss @ Maryland and finally last Saturday just a 16-point loss @ North Carolina. The Cavs were down by 20+ @ UNC and battled to the end to close the margin. That’s a good sign for a dog. This team doesn’t quit.

The first match up between these two teams was an 11-point win for FSU on January 24th. Despite shooting only 35% (FSU shot 50%) and a terrible 28% from behind the arc (FSU shot 53% from deep) this game was not a white wash. Against UNC, this Virginia team went with a smaller line up and played zone daring the Heels to shoot from the perimeter. Don’t be surprised if they use the same strategy tonight against a Florida State team that has hit only 29% of its shots from outside the arc in ACC play (11th in the league). As we mentioned, this FSU team hit 53% of their 3-pointers @ Virginia, however that is not their strength and we don’t expect to see that happen again on Tuesday.

We look for FSU to come out flat as a pancake and this to be a close game with a good shot that UVA leads at halftime. The Noles will most likely get it together in the second half at home, but not enough to cover this one. Virginia fights to the end again and gets an easy cover.
 
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<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->REASON FOR PICK: PLAY ON 5* Kentucky (-4) vs. Florida, Tuesday at 9:00 PM EST

Kentucky started conference play hot, winning their first 5 games by an average of 14 points per game. Since then, they have lost 3 straight by 5, 1, and 9 points. This is a HUGE game for the Wildcats, who have had a week off since their last game, to get a big win against the SEC’s top team (although probably a little overrated). They are 11-4 at home this season, and we expect them to notch their 12th win at home on Tuesday night.

Kentucky has one of the best offenses in the SEC, scoring 77.5 points per game on 49% field goals (8th nationally). Along with their great offense, they also allow just 37.3% field goals on defense (4th nationally). Jodie Meeks and Patrick Patterson give the Wildcats one of the best scoring tandems in the nation, scoring a combined 43.4 points per game between the two of them. Florida has a high-octane offense, but we don’t expect them to be able to contain Meeks and Patterson on defense.

The Gators have played just 6 of their 23 games on the road this season and boast just a 3-3 record. Their wins have come against Central Florida, Auburn, and Vanderbilt. They’ve lost against the “more talented” teams they have played; Florida State, South Carolina, and Tennessee. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings between these two teams and we expect that trend to continue Tuesday. Go with Kentucky.
 
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