Dave Essler - This was released to LT clients a couple days ago
304 Kansas St. / 303 Auburn UNDER 66.0 5dimes
Well, the line cratered a while back to 63/64 so I am sure we will get the best number. Several key points here. First of all, although we like what Auburn is doing, how many times have you seen a Bill Snyder coached team do the extraordinary. A lot. The close game K-State had at ISU last week was quite predictable, because THIS game was in their sites. They have UTEP next week, and are home until they travel to Norman October 18th. As far as Auburn is concerned, this is their first road game. Snyder knows damned well he's not going to win a shootout, and will, IMO, totally try to keep the ball away from Auburn, and I think they can. At ISU they held the up-tempo Cyclones to only 4-13 on third down and had a perfectly balances rushing/passing attack. They were hurt by a ton of penalties, which is somewhat expected on the road (so Auburn may fall victim to that tonight) and that's also a fixable problem, especially by someone like Snyder. In fact, after falling behind, they held ISU to ZERO points in the second half, again, on the road. Their defense should be plenty confident. They were held to two FG's in the Red Zone early. It's a non-conference game for Auburn, so perhaps less motivation. At home against a "decent" Arkansas team (but one that IMO doesn't have the defense K-State does) the score was 45-21, or 66. Simple math also says this game, with the line clearly favoring the Wildcats at this point, says it cannot (should not) be a 67 point game. I looked back at the NDSU/ISU game as well. Let's not forget NDSU is the three time defending FCS champion, so although ISU "should" be the better team, NDSU far from sucks. First game of the year. NDSU cared, ISU probably took it for granted. We'll see what happens.