THE SPORTS ADVISORS
North Carolina State at South Carolina
A nationally televised ACC-SEC matchup is on tap at Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C., where North Carolina State pays a visit to Steve Spurrier’s Gamecocks in the season opener for both schools.
Playing for first-year coach Tom O’Brien last season, the Wolfpack missed a bowl game for the first time in eight years when they finished 5-7 (5-6 ATS). After a 1-5 start, N.C. State seemed to turn things around with four straight wins, but season-ending losses to Wake Forest (38-18) and Maryland (37-0) killed the Pack’s postseason hopes.
O’Brien’s offense looks to be in trouble early this season as he’s selected redshirt freshman QB Russell Wilson as his starter. Also, top WR Donald Bowens (41 catches last season) suffered a spinal injury in practice and is out for the year. On the bright side, Wolfpack is TE Anthony Hill, who was an all-ACC performer in 2006 before missing the entire 2007 campaign with a knee injury, returns to the lineup.
The Gamecocks opened the 2007 season with a 6-1 record (4-2 ATS) and climbed as high as No. 6 in the nation. But from there, the team lost its final five games (1-4 ATS) and missed out on a bowl game as a result. South Carolina has 16 starters back, including 10 on defense.
The Gamecocks will start junior QB Tommy Beecher, who saw limited action a year ago behind senior Blake Mitchell. Beecher was 14-of-23 for 175 yards with a TD and an INT. His top target figures to be returning all-SEC receiver Kenny McKinley (77 catches, 967 yards, nine TDs in 2007). McKinley has 153 catches and 15 TDs in his career with South Carolina.
Spurrier is 17-1 SU in season openers as a collegiate head coach, but just 3-9 ATS in lined contests. The Gamecocks are also on ATS slides of 0-5 in home openers and 1-3 in August contests. However, they are on ATS runs of 8-3 as chalk dating back to 2006 and 4-0 in weekday affairs.
O’Brien’s Wolfpack are on an 11-7 ATS roll as a non-conference underdog, including 4-1 ATS as a non-conference road ‘dog of more than three points.
The last time these two squared off was 1999 when North Carolina State scored a 10-0 home victory as a 7’-point favorite.
South Carolina stayed under the posted total in seven of 11 games last season, but the over is 23-9 in its last 32 in front of the home fans. For N.C. State, the under is on runs of 6-1-2 in non-conference games, 5-2-1 on the road and 18-8-2 on grass.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SOUTH CAROLINA
(23) Wake Forest at Baylor
One of the preseason favorites to win the Atlantic Coast Conference title opens on the road when the Demon Deacons visit Floyd Casey Stadium in Waco, Texas, to take on Baylor.
After finishing last in the ACC’s Atlantic Division three seasons ago, Wake Forest has won 20 games the last two seasons and claimed its first ACC title in 36 years in 2006. Last year, Jim Grobe’s Demon Deacons finished 9-4 SU and ATS, including a 24-10 win over Connecticut in the Meineke Bowl as 1’-point favorites.
Wake has nine starters back on a ball-hawking defense that ranked 28th nationally last season at 340.4 yards per game, holding five of its final six opponents to 20 points or less while returning eight turnovers for touchdowns. On offense, the Deacons have the last two ACC rookies of the year in RB Josh Adams (953 yards rushing and 11 TDs as a freshman last season) and QB Riley Skinner, who had the nation’s highest completion percentage at 72.4 percent in 2007 and threw for 2,204 yards, 12 TDs and 13 INTs.
Baylor (3-9, 4-7 ATS in 2007) lost eight straight games (2-6 ATS) to finish last season, finishing last in the Big 12 for the 11th time in the league’s 12-year history. The Bears had the seventh-worst scoring offense (17.9 ppg) in the country backed by the eighth-worst scoring defense (37 ppg allowed).
Art Briles moves from Houston to coach the Bears and has a quarterback controversy brewing between true freshman Robert Griffin, a 400-meter hurdler who expands the playbook with his running ability, and returning QB Blake Szymanski, who tossed 22 scoring strikes last year.
Baylor, which has dropped five of six season openers SU, has lost 12 straight games against ranked foes, and the school is just 2-38 SU against Top-25 teams since the Big 12 was formed in 1996. The Bears are also mired in ATS slumps of 8-18 overall, 5-16 as underdogs, 2-9 as a home ‘dog and 4-11 at home since 2005.
Wake Forest is on ATS runs of 21-11-1 overall and 11-5 on the highway against non-conference opposition, including 3-1-1 as a road favorite since 2005. This Deacons were 5-2 ATS when installed in the chalk role a season ago.
Baylor has won all four of the previous matchups between these schools, but the last came in 1961.
For the Deacons, the over is 7-3 in their last 10 overall and 5-1 in their last six on the road. However, the under is 5-2 in Baylor’s last seven in Waco.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WAKE FOREST
Oregon State at Stanford
It’s an early Pac-10 matchup as Oregon State heads to Stanford Stadium in Palo Alto, Calif. to take on the Cardinal.
Oregon State has dominated this series lately, winning six of the last seven and covering the number in eight of the last 10 dating back to 1997. The Beavers have outscored the Cardinal 53-13 the last two seasons, covering both games easily as two-touchdown favorites. Oregon State has also won its last three visits to Palo Alto (2-1 ATS).
The Beavers’ defense returns just three starters, and nobody in the front seven, from a unit that led the nation in rush defense last year. That defense was the main reason Oregon State (9-4 SU and ATS in 2007) closed last season on a 7-1 SU and ATS run, including a 21-14 victory over Maryland in the Emerald Bowl, covering as a four-point chalk.
QB Lyle Moevao returns this season after going 77-of-147 last year with two TDs and six INTs in the final three games of the regular season (3-0 SU and ATS). A big key for the Beavers this year is the return of WR Sammie Stroughter, who had 74 catches in the 2006 campaign but only played three games last year before sitting out with a kidney injury.
Aside from an historic upset of USC as a 39-point road underdog, Stanford (4-8, 5-7 ATS) struggled in its first year under coach Jim Harbaugh. However, the Cardinal return almost the entire defense, as well as QB Tavita Pritchard, who started seven games a year ago, including the stunning 24-23 win over then-No. 2 ranked Southern Cal on the Trojans home field. Pritchard threw for 1,114 yards, five TDs and nine INTs in his limited action in 2007.
The Cardinal are just 2-11 SU (3-10 ATS) in their last 13 games in recently refurbished Stanford Stadium, and they are on an 0-3 ATS slide in Pac-10 openers and they went 2-4 ATS as a home ‘dog last year.
Oregon State is 5-1 ATS in its last six season openers and 21-12-1 as a favorite since coach Mike Riley returned to the sidelines in 2003. However, the Beavers have stumbled in roadies to start the season, going 3-10 ATS in the first one on the highway the last 13 years, including last year’s ugly 34-3 loss at Cincinnati as a 3’-point road chalk.
The under was 9-3 for the Cardinal last season and is on further streaks of 45-16-1 overall, 37-13-1 in Pac-10 games and 16-5 on grass. For Oregon State, the over is on runs of 7-3 in Pac-10 games and 4-1 on the road, but the under is 4-1 in the Beavers’ last five Thursday contests. Finally, the under is 5-0 in the last five series meetings between these schools.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OREGON STATE and UNDER
NFL PRESEASON
N.Y. Jets (2-1, 1-1-1 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Jets, wrapping up a preseason that included acquiring QB Brett Favre, travel to Lincoln Financial Field for a matchup with the Eagles in a game where starters ‘ as is customary in the final week of exhibition play -- will likely see very little playing time.
New York edged the neighboring Giants 10-7 last week, getting a push as a three-point chalk, with both teams scoring all their points in the second half. The Jets have been rather successful in preseason play since 2003, going 16-8 (12-11-1 ATS), and they’re 6-2 SU and ATS on the highway during that stretch.
Philadelphia rolled over New England 27-17 last week, putting up three second-quarter TDs to easily cash as a one-point road underdog. It was the second straight win and cover for the Eagles, who have been a middling preseason team under coach Andy Reid, going 12-12 ATS (10-14 SU) in August games since 2003, including 6-5 SU and ATS at home. That said, they’ve covered in five of their last seven home exhibition contests.
The Jets and Eagles have met in the preseason finale the past eight years, and New York has won the last six in a row (4-2 ATS).
Mangini said it would be ‘safe to say’ that he’s leaning toward not playing Favre at all tonight. That would leave the starting chores to Kellen Clemens, followed by Brett Ratliff and rookie Erik Ainge. Clemens went 9-for-12 for 83 yards, leading one field-goal drive, against the Giants.
Likewise, Reid is expected to give little if any time to his starters, meaning QB Donovan McNabb will likely take a seat. Kevin Kolb should get the starting nod, but regardless, Kolb and A.J. Feeley will both see significant playing time.
The under has cashed in four of the Jets’ last five preseason games (2-1 this August). On the flip side, the over is 6-2 in Philly’s last eight exhibition games, and the total has gone high in three of the last four preseason clashes between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
New England (0-3 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (1-2, 1-0-2 ATS)
In a rematch of last year’s Super Bowl, the Patriots finish out a disappointing preseason with a trip to East Rutherford, N.J., to take on the Giants.
New England, which has not had QB Tom Brady on the field at all this August, lost to Philadelphia 27-17 last week as a one-point home favorite. The Pats are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight preseason contests, though they haven’t had a winless preseason since 1990.
New York lost to the cross-town rival Jets 10-7 last week, but still got a push as a three-point pup. The Giants are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five August home games (not counting Jets-Giants contests), and they are 9-4-2 ATS in preseason play dating to August 2005. This will be the fourth straight year these two teams have closed the preseason against each other, with New York holding a 2-1 SU and ATS edge.
Brady (foot) is not expected to play for the Patriots, so Matt Gutierrez and Matt Cassel will continue their battle for the No. 2 spot ‘ a battle Gutierrez appears to be winning. Coach Bill Belichick didn’t indicate who would start, but both should see significant time. Last week, Gutierrez went 14 of 20 for 217 yards and two fourth-quarter TD passes, while Cassel was a mediocre 8 of 14 for 60 yards. Rookie Kevin O’Connell could also see some action in this one.
The Giants, dealt a crushing blow last week with the season-ending loss of Pro Bowl defensive end Osi Umenyiora (knee), will almost certainly keep the bulk of their starters out of the firing line. That includes QB Eli Manning, who will probably sit and watch David Carr and Anthony Wright lead the offense most of the way, with rookie Andre Woodson also likely to see action.
The over is 6-3 in New England’s last nine August games. Conversely, the under is 10-5 in preseason play for New York dating to 2005.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Philadelphia (73-60) at Chicago Cubs (83-50)
The streaking Cubs send Ryan Dempster (15-5, 2.85 ERA) to the mound at Wrigley Field to open a four-game series against the similarly hot Phillies, who will counter with ace Cole Hamels (11-8, 3.20).
Chicago topped Pittsburgh 2-0 in a pitchers’ duel Wednesday afternoon to complete a three-game sweep of the Pirates. The Cubs have ripped off five straight victories and have won eight of their last 10, and they are on further runs of 22-6 overall, 9-1 against left-handers, 9-2 against winning teams and 14-3 with Dempster starting at home.
Philadelphia had its five-game winning streak snapped in a 6-3 home loss to the Mets on Wednesday, splitting a two-game series and ending a five-game winning streak. Like the Cubs, the Phillies have won eight of their last 10 games, and they are 44-20 in their last 64 series openers. However, they’re in ruts of 2-5 on the road and 1-4 when Hamels faces winning teams.
These two squads have gotten together only once this season, with Philly taking two of three at home in April. Additionally, the Phils are 26-12 in the last 38 meetings overall, including 13-6 in the last 19 clashes at Wrigley Field.
Dempster has notched wins in his last three starts, including a 9-2 home victory Saturday over Washington, in which he yielded just one run on eight hits in 7 1/3 innings. The right-hander has been sterling in his last seven starts, allowing just nine earned runs in 46 innings (1.76 ERA).
Hamels has won his last two starts, with the Phillies drilling the Dodgers 9-2 at home in his most recent outing Saturday, as the southpaw allowed two runs on five hits in seven innings. He’s given up two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts.
Dempster is 12-2 with a 2.66 ERA in 16 home starts this year, and he’s 4-3 with a 4.67 ERA in 19 career appearances (12 starts) against Philadelphia, though his last start versus the Phillies came in 2003. Hamels is 5-2 with a 3.40 ERA and five no-decisions (three of them Phillies losses) in 12 road starts this season, and he’s 3-1 with 3.00 ERA in four career efforts against Chicago.
The over for Chicago is on runs of 9-2 against winning teams and 8-3 against the N.L. East. On the flip side, the under is 8-3 in Dempster’s last 11 home starts and 18-8-2 in Philadelphia’s last 28 games against winning teams. Finally, the under is 8-3-2 in the last 13 Wrigley Field meetings between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS
