Service Plays Thursday 8/28/08

[rocky2]

Oddswiz

Wake Forest vs. Baylor
Play: Wake Forest -12.5

The gap between Baylor and College footballs "good" teams remains large. Jim Grobe has built Wake Forest into one of those "good teams" which has us laying the big number here. The Wake Forest unorthodox offense should give Baylor fits. Defending against it is hard enough, but asking a team like Baylor to do it the first time they take the field this year, could prove to be overwhelming. We don't like to lay double digits but can't make a case for Baylor here.


UTEP vs. Buffalo U
Play: UTEP +3

This game opened Buffalo -3 and still sits at Buffalo -3. The Bulls look to be a team on the rise. They won 5 games a year ago, their highest win total this decade and return just about everyone from last years team. So hopes are high in Buffalo. After being the laughing stock of College Football ever since they became a division 1A team, it's now or never if this tem is ever going to get any respect. UTEP, unlike Buffalo, has tasted success this decade. They had 8 win seasons on three different occasions and went to 3 bowl games this decade. With no clear cut obvious edges either way in this one, we're inclined to take the field goal in a game that could go either way.

 

[rocky2]

FAO Sports

UTEP over Buffalo

UTEP is 3-0 the first game of the season the L3Y, outscoring their opponents by 9.33 PPG.They are not necessarily the best road team,but will have enough to beat this Buffalo team.Buffalo is 1-2 the first game of the season the L3Y. They have been outscored by their opponents by 22.33 PPG.The only team they beat was the Temple Owls in 2006 9-3 at home.

 

[rocky2]

Bryan Leonard

Vanderbilt at Miami OH

Vanderbilt is returning only 10 starters this season including just three on the offensive side of the football. They lost three players to the NFL draft including wide receiver Earl Bennett who had been a fixture in the end zone. The Commodores do have depth at the quarterback position and the running attack has talent. But the receiving corps has a lot of work to do to make up for Bennett's departure. The offensive line loses all five starters but they do have some experienced players stepping in. Defensively the strength will be in the backfield, led by cornerback DJ Moore who was first-team All-SEC a year ago.

Miami is coming off a divisional championship season despite ranking 108th in the country in scoring. We expect more of the same from the Redhawks this season as the quarterback and running back combination looks weak. They do have a solid receiving corps if the man behind center can find his teammates a little more often than a year ago. The defense returns nine starters including one of the best linebacking corps in the country. Clayton Mullins was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year last season and he looks to continue his success.

Despite returning just three offensive starters the Commodores still have the better offensive unit. But with the Miami defense returning virtually intact they will still hold the upper hand in that matchup. Vanderbilt beat Miami 24-13 in Nashville a year ago. With the offense being down a bit for the Commodores we can see this game being another very low scoring affair.

PLAY UNDER

 

[rocky2]

Terron Chapman

Oregon State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford

Jim Harbaugh begins his second season as head coach of the Stanford Cardinal with an opening game against an old friend. Mike Riley will bring his Oregon St.Beavers to Palo Alto Thursday evening as the two teams kick off their respective seasons with a conference clash.

Harbaugh was quarterback under Riley when Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 99-00. In his first season as coach, Harbaugh and the Cardinal made national headlines upsetting then #2 ranked USC. The Cardinal return 16 starters from last seasons squad and will look to avenge a 23-6 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis last year.

In that game, the Cardinal commited four turnover's while rushing for -8 yards on 25 attempts. They were a putrid 1-13 on 3rd down, yet the Beavers only had three more first downs than the Cardinal.

The Beavers led the NCAA in rush defense last season at (70.6 ypg) but must replace their entire defensive line and linebacking corps. They do return three starters on O-line. The Cardinal on the flip side return four starters on the O-line and five players with starting experience on the D-line and should hold the edge in the trenches this go around. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will be on their way to a victory and the way the Cardinal got pushed around at times in last year's game they should be anxious to return the favor.

I'm not too sure about the Beavers who have lost their last five road openers. Their losses on defense are heavy and they still have uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They must break in a new running back and who's to say if standout wide reciever Sammie Stroughter can return to his 2006 form. The Cardinal on the other hand appear to be a team on the rise this year. They return a solid starting quarterback and should have a much improved defense. Throw in the home field advantage and we like the Cardinal to pull off the slight upset. Play on the Stanford Cardinal for 2 units.

 

[rocky2]

Pupsnchalk Sports

Oregon State vs. Stanford
Play: Stanford +3

Jim Harbaugh begins his second season as head coach of the Stanford Cardinal with an opening game against an old friend. Mike Riley will bring his Oregon St.Beavers to Palo Alto Thursday evening as the two teams kick off their respective seasons with a conference clash.

Harbaugh was quarterback under Riley when Riley was the head coach of the San Diego Chargers from 99-00. In his first season as coach, Harbaugh and the Cardinal made national headlines upsetting then #2 ranked USC. The Cardinal return 16 starters from last season and will look to avenge a 23-6 loss to the Beavers in Corvallis last year.

In that game, the Cardinal commited four turnover's while rushing for -8 yards on 25 attempts. They were a putrid 1-13 on 3rd down, yet the Beavers only had three more first downs than the Cardinal.

The Beavers led the NCAA in rush defense last season at (70.6 ypg) but must replace their entire defensive line and linebacking corps. They do return three starters on O-line. The Cardinal on the flip side return four starters on the O-line and five players with starting experience on the D-line and should hold the edge in the trenches this go around. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will be on their way to a victory and the way the Cardinal got pushed around at times in last year's game they should be anxious to return the favor.

I'm not too sure about the Beavers who have lost their last five road openers. Their losses on defense are heavy and they still have uncertainty on the offensive side of the ball. They must break in a new running back and who's to say if standout wide reciever Sammie Stroughter can return to his 2006 form. The Cardinal on the other hand appear to be a team on the rise this year. They return a solid starting quarterback and should have a much improved defense. Throw in the home field advantage and we like the Cardinal to pull off the slight upset. Play on the Stanford Cardinal for 2 units. Good luck to all.

 

[rocky2]

John Ryan

Wake Forest vs. Baylor
Play: Baylor +12

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baylor - AiS shows a 68% probability that Baylor will lose this game by 12 or fewer points. Love these early season DOGS that have 9 or more returning offensive starters along with the QB. That is the case for Baylor as they return 9 including the QB and this will be a dominant factor in this game. Wake Forest also has a history of not being a solid double digit favorite either noting they are 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points since 1992. Supporting this graded play and the returning starter phenomenon is a strong system posting a 75-36 ATS mark for 68% since 2002. Play on home dogs of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB returning as starter. Don't laugh either as I strongly believe taking a 1* unit on the money line is a solid bet as well. I have seen this line at +450 and offers a great opportunity. We are not going to win a high percentage of these ML plays, but if we hit between 43 and 48% (last 5 seasons) then it will make a significant contribution to the bottom line.

 

[rocky2]

Great Lakes Sports

Minnesota at Dallas
Play on: Dallas

There is usually not a lot of value in the last preseason game as teams try to avoid injuries, and play their scrubs to see who will make the cut for their respected teams. We her at Great Lakes Sports find some value playing on the Dallas Cowboys as they are 4-1 ATS where the total is 35 points or less the last three years, and they are 3-1ATS when playing a home game where the total is between 32.5 to 35 points the last three years, and they are only 2-3ATS vs conference opponents the last three years. We look for the Dallas Cowboys to roll over the Minnesota Vikings for the home ATS win & cover tonight

 

[rocky2]

Jimmy The Moose

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Indianapolis Colts

Both team's have looked pretty bad in the preseason and tonight's game won't be much better. The Bengals are 1-2 SU and are having major issues with injuries. Palmer, Chad and Rudi Johnson and TJ are all banged up and won't see any time in this game. The Bengals backup QB's will have a lot of trouble in this one. The Colts will also rest many starters but their backup QB's Sorgi, Lorenzen and Gray have all looked better than the Bengals QB's. Indianapolis would like to get their first win at a new stadium out of the way and that happens tonight. Play on the Colts -.

 

[rocky2]

Marc Lawrence

Play On: Florida

Note: The Marlins take on the Braves in the finale of their three-games series this evening when Anibel Sanchez faces Charlie Morton in Atlanta. Aside from being in solid current form, Sanchez is 3-1 in his career team starts on Thursdays. Meanwhile, Morton is 1-6 at home with an 8.18 ERA. With that we'll back the better pitcher and the better team here tonight.
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Big Al McMordie

Cincinnati Reds vs. Houston Astros
Play: Over

At 2:05pm our complimentary selection is on the Cincinnati Reds and Houston Astros 'over' the total. When it comes to handing out the award for most inconsistent pitcher in baseball for the month of August, you can pretty much retire the trophy and hand it to Houston's 30-year-old righthander Brandon Backe. Consider these stats: sandwiched between three starts in which Backe gave up three, one, and three earned runs respectively, Backe had two starts in which he gave up 11 earned runs (one in less than six innings and the other in less than four innings). Because of this, Backe's stats over his last four starts are about as ugly as any pitcher in the league. As bad as Backe has been in some of his recent starts, Cincinnati's righthander Aaron Harang has arguably been worse. Like Backe, Harang's last start was strong (at Colorado), but his three previous starts to that were disasterous. One of those starts, which occurred on August 10 was against this same Houston team and resulted in a 13-4 demolition at the hands of the Astros. In fact, none of Harang's last four starts has gone less than a total of ten runs combined for the two teams, and even more dramatically, five of Backe's last six starts have gone a total of ten or more runs. Take the 'over'.

 

[rocky2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Michael Cannon

Boston +110 at NY YANKEES

Let’s take the Red Sox this afternoon for the series sweep over the Yankees.

The Yankees look like they’re dead in the water after dropping the first two games of this series by a combined 18-6 score.

Jon Lester will get the start for Boston and he’s 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA on the year. The left-hander has been brilliant against the Yankees this year, winning both of his starts and allowing just two earned runs in 16 innings while racking up 16 strikeouts.

Mike Mussina will start for the Yankees and he’s posted a nice 16-7 record this year, but is just 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this year.

Take Boston as they grab the win and series sweep.

3* BOSTON


Oregon State at STANFORD +3

Take the points with Stanford as the home dog over Oregon State.

Stanford enters year two of the Jim Harbaugh era and they have plenty to feel good about after a colossal road upset of Usc and a season-ending upset over Cal.

The Cardinal defense returns nine starters, so they should improve on last year’s No. 9 conference ranking. They will get an opportunity to show that improvement tonight against an Oregon State offense that is unsettled at the quarterback position.

On the other side of the ball, Harbaugh should be able to grind it out on the ground against a Beavers front seven that is totally rebuilt.

Being able to control the clock with the ground game as a home dog gives the Cardinal a chance at an outright win.

Take the points with Stanford.

4* STANFORD
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[rocky2]

Sports Gambling Hotline

NC State at SOUTH CAROLINA -13½

We like the direction NC State coach Tom O'Brien has the Wolfpack going in, but tonight they will simply be outclassed by a South Carolina team that is out for blood, and also happens to be very talented.

The Gamecocks closed last season with 5 straight losses, that after a 6-1 start to the year. Expect the returning starters - and there are 16 of them! - to be on a mission this season, and expect them to pull away in this game before the final gun.

NC State did lose 6 games last year by 17-points or more, and this looks like deja vu, as the 'Pack is a very young bunch, and is likely to become unglued in this night time road game.

South Carolina owns a 6-3-1 spread mark their last 10 as a home favorite, and that mark will rise to 7-3-1 by the conclusion of this one.

Steve Spurrier gives the home faithful something to cheer about as the 'Cocks take care of business in Columbia tonight.

3* SOUTH CAROLINA

 

[rocky2]

Matt Rivers

For Thursday take the Redhawks of Miami O.

It is certainly possible that tomorrow I will say shame on me for laying points with a MAC team against an SEC opponent but I still will take my chances here with Miami against Vanderbilt.

The Commodores are very likely in for a tough year. Normally they lose most of their conference games and are able to muster a few wins outside of the conference but the cupboard appears to be a lot more bare this season than over the past few seasons and Bobby Johnson's team may be in for a long long season.

Vegas has posted the 'Dores win total at right around 3 under 30 and that is pretty darn poor obviously. They lost their entire offensive line and a stud in Earl Bennett at the wide out position. Compare that to the Redhawks who return a whopping 17 starters including Quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh and three of the top linebackers in the conference including Clayton Mullins who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year a season ago.

I just do not see Vandy being able to muster much offensively and despite going against some conventional wisdon by laying points with the smaller conference team I do see Ben Roethlisberger's alma mater getting off to the quick start today.

 

[rocky2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Ross Benjamin

Toronto @ Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay –140

The Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA versus the Rays in 2008. Litsch is 3-8 with a lofty 5.20 ERA in his team starts at night this season and 4-7 in his team starts on the road with a 4.74 ERA. Tampa Bay is an astounding 44-12 in their last 56 home games and 8-2 in the last 10 at home versus Toronto. Play on the Tampa Bay Rays.
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[rocky2]

K & B SPORTS

The Jaguars got a win in their last preseason game 23-17 while the Redskins lost their last preseason game 47-3. The Jaguars are 14-9 ATS in preseason since 2003. And the Redskins are 9-14 ATS in preseason since 2003 (this record does not include the 2008 Hall of Fame Game). The Jaguars were 6-2 ATS in 2007 regular season games on the road. And the Redskins were 3-4-1 ATS in 2007 regular season games at home.

PLAY: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

 

[rocky2]

John Fina

Selection: Florida Marlins -115

Reason: Put us down on the Florida Marlins (-125) for our Free MLB Selection on Thursday. Today the Florida Marlins will be on the road as they take on the Atlanta Braves. We will side with the Florida Marlins! One reason why we will side with the Florida Marlins is because they will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. This says it all... The Florida Marlins Starting Pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) has a 3.86 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Atlanta Braves Starting Pitcher (Charlie Morton) has a 10.24 ERA in his last 3 starts. As you can see, the Florida Marlins will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. In this case, the value is with the team who will be sending to the mound the much better starting pitcher. Take the Florida Marlins!

 

[chase88]

JEFFERSONSPORTS 1-1 yest

29-20 last 49 plays (59%)

MLB +27.99 units (+2799.00$ playing 100.00 a game)

MLB EARLY RELEASES FOR THURS
MINN TWINS-147
CHIC CUBS-140

was terrific in football last year. hopefully will do well again. Plays at 2 pac

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Fairway Jay

4* South Carolina
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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

HONDO

August 28, 2008
That's the change you can believe in. Hondo con tinued his post-slump bump in good fortune last night at his 'dog show, scoring with the Indians and Nats to send the earnings skyrocketing to a 580 camillis.

Tonight, Mr. Aitch recommends that HondoNation do some Dempster diving - 10 units on the Cubs to send him to the winner's circle for a fifth straight game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Armvin Sports Mlb

8/28/2008 Boston Red Sox 110

 

[donlauer]

Any early Mike Rose for today??? TY