SPORTSWAGERS
CFL
Winnipeg @ HAMILTON
Winnipeg +4½ -110 over HAMILTON
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Line opened with the Tiger-Cats as a -3½-point favorite and has been bet up to -4½. It would appear to us that the market has overreacted to Hamilton’s win last week but more specifically to Dan LeFevour’s sparkling CFL starting debut that saw him put up in excess of 350 yards passing and more than 100 yards rushing. Let us point out, however, that it came against Ottawa, a team coming off a huge emotional victory the week prior in their first ever home game. It was also the Ti-Cats first home game of the year so everything was right in place for a strong showing from the Tabbies. What might be lost in last week’s Hamilton victory is that the Redblacks could have won and went toe-to-toe with the Ti-Cats until a very late TD in the fourth that put Hamilton up by 10 for good. Again, that was Ottawa. Let us also remind you that before the season began Dan Lefevour was the third string QB and when Zach Collaros went down in Week 3, Coach Kent Austin chose Jeremiah Masoli to start Week 4. There are other factors here that work against Hamilton as well. Last week was its first win and it was also its first “real” home game in nearly two years. An emotional victory it was and it was also the third consecutive week that Hamilton played their hearts out. The two previous weeks they played in Edmonton and Calgary respectively and they could have won both those games. After three weeks of being emotionally jacked up, the Tiger-Cats are in a letdown spot and will play this one on just five days rest with a weak offensive line.
Winnipeg is also in a letdown spot after they went into B.C. last week as a big underdog and won 23-6. However, the fact that they’re not getting the respect they deserve provides big motivation and that applies here. The top three teams in the West, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are a combined 12-1 while no team in the East has more than one victory. Hamilton’s 74 points scored is second last in the CFL, ahead of only the Alouettes 70 points scored. Furthermore, Winnipeg leads the CFL in points scored with 141 and they are 2-0 on the road. Winnipeg’s aggressive defense will now face a Hamilton’s offensive line that has three out of four regulars out. Throw in the points, throw in that Winnipeg has had an extra day of preparation and throw in the motivation of being disrespected (every player knows the point-spread) and there you have it. The West versus East getting +4½ points is too many in this decent situation.
CFL
Winnipeg @ HAMILTON
Winnipeg +4½ -110 over HAMILTON
(Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Line opened with the Tiger-Cats as a -3½-point favorite and has been bet up to -4½. It would appear to us that the market has overreacted to Hamilton’s win last week but more specifically to Dan LeFevour’s sparkling CFL starting debut that saw him put up in excess of 350 yards passing and more than 100 yards rushing. Let us point out, however, that it came against Ottawa, a team coming off a huge emotional victory the week prior in their first ever home game. It was also the Ti-Cats first home game of the year so everything was right in place for a strong showing from the Tabbies. What might be lost in last week’s Hamilton victory is that the Redblacks could have won and went toe-to-toe with the Ti-Cats until a very late TD in the fourth that put Hamilton up by 10 for good. Again, that was Ottawa. Let us also remind you that before the season began Dan Lefevour was the third string QB and when Zach Collaros went down in Week 3, Coach Kent Austin chose Jeremiah Masoli to start Week 4. There are other factors here that work against Hamilton as well. Last week was its first win and it was also its first “real” home game in nearly two years. An emotional victory it was and it was also the third consecutive week that Hamilton played their hearts out. The two previous weeks they played in Edmonton and Calgary respectively and they could have won both those games. After three weeks of being emotionally jacked up, the Tiger-Cats are in a letdown spot and will play this one on just five days rest with a weak offensive line.
Winnipeg is also in a letdown spot after they went into B.C. last week as a big underdog and won 23-6. However, the fact that they’re not getting the respect they deserve provides big motivation and that applies here. The top three teams in the West, Calgary, Edmonton and Winnipeg are a combined 12-1 while no team in the East has more than one victory. Hamilton’s 74 points scored is second last in the CFL, ahead of only the Alouettes 70 points scored. Furthermore, Winnipeg leads the CFL in points scored with 141 and they are 2-0 on the road. Winnipeg’s aggressive defense will now face a Hamilton’s offensive line that has three out of four regulars out. Throw in the points, throw in that Winnipeg has had an extra day of preparation and throw in the motivation of being disrespected (every player knows the point-spread) and there you have it. The West versus East getting +4½ points is too many in this decent situation.
SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Seattle @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND/Seattle over 8½ -102
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
Zach McAllister was spotted with a 5-0 lead after two innings in his last start in Kansas City but coughed it all up in another disappointing performance. After starting the season 3-0, he's 0-6 in his last nine starts. Overall he has a 5.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. McAllister is having trouble finding the plate and he has the worst oppBA (.422) in the majors when pitching with runners on. When this stiff pitches, there are always runners on. McAllister’s fast start last season was derailed by a mid-season finger injury but his xERA wasn't buying that first half ERA anyway. His control and command are going the wrong way. His groundball rate of 40% is stagnant at best. His dominant start/disaster start split says he’s a crap-shoot whenever he takes the ball. Age, some level of rebound is possible, but durability issues add to a less-than-optimistic outlook.
Chris Young has been a hot pickup in fantasy leagues off the waiver wire recently, as seven of his last eight starts have been of the pure quality variety, where he has allowed three earned runs or less in all eight. Safeco Field can make pitchers look awfully good but his road form leaves something to be desired and so do his skills. In 55 road innings, Young has been taken yard 12 times. That’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Young’s 24%/58% groundball/fly-ball split is the biggest discrepancy in the majors among pitchers with 10 or more starts. Over his last five starts, his groundball/fly-ball split is 20%/62%. Young’s 3.04 ERA is about the most mind-boggling ERA over the past 20 years but we’re here to tell you that it’s been all luck driven. He has been the beneficiary of an 84% strand rate and remarkably low 22% hit rate. Once those normalize, Young’s ERA is in for a big correction. That correction likely starts here against an Indians squad that owns the fourth best OPS in MLB versus right handed pitching at .751. This isn’t Safeco Field. The over/under for HR’s in this game should be 8½.
St. Louis @ SAN DIEGO
St. Louis +100 over SAN DIEGO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
3:40 PM EST. Shelby Miller went 15-9 last season with an ERA of 3.06 with an oppBA of .234. This year has been a different story. Miller has walked 55 batters while striking out just 76 in 115.2 innings. He has an awful 1.44 WHIP, an ERA of 4.22 and an xERA of 4.86. The Cardinals had lost five straight with Miller starting from June 19 to July 10 and he was subsequently demoted to the bullpen. He pitched one inning of relief from July 10 to July 20 and has only pitched 6.2 innings since July 10. Last week he started against the Cubbies and with some rest behind him he didn’t walk a batter and gave up just three hits in 5.2 innings. If Miller is throwing strikes and he’s not fatigued, he’s hugely effective. He’s only allowed 111 hits in 115.2 frames and will now face a Padres team that ranks 30th in just about every key offensive category. Still, this one is more about fading Odrisamer Despaigne than it is about backing Shelby Miller.
Despaigne was finally hit with his first poor outing in his sixth start although he escaped by allowing just two earned runs despite giving up six hits and five walks in 3.2 innings. Consider his 1.66 ERA to be a complete mirage, as his skill set is sub-par. Despaigne’s plus minor league strikeout rate hasn't translated over to the majors. A poor swing and miss rate of 6% doesn't offer much hope for improvement, either. Despaigne has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%/strand%, hr/f) to get to his sub-2.00 ERA. xERA says he's actually been a below average pitcher under the surface. He's had trouble getting ahead in the count as shown by his first-pitch strike rate. The walk rate has predictably suffered, so his command is well into the danger zone. Despaigne has relied on a variety of arm slots with deception in his delivery to get to the major leagues. His surface stats, however, have been just as deceptive given the general lack of skill support so far. The 27-year-old Cuban defector was given an unimpressive prospect rating upon his call-up on June 25, which doesn't bode well for his ability to remain relevant. Selling Despaigne's hot start is the wise play here, as both his long-term potential and short-term skills don't measure up to his current level of performance.
MLB
Seattle @ CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND/Seattle over 8½ -102
(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
Zach McAllister was spotted with a 5-0 lead after two innings in his last start in Kansas City but coughed it all up in another disappointing performance. After starting the season 3-0, he's 0-6 in his last nine starts. Overall he has a 5.65 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. McAllister is having trouble finding the plate and he has the worst oppBA (.422) in the majors when pitching with runners on. When this stiff pitches, there are always runners on. McAllister’s fast start last season was derailed by a mid-season finger injury but his xERA wasn't buying that first half ERA anyway. His control and command are going the wrong way. His groundball rate of 40% is stagnant at best. His dominant start/disaster start split says he’s a crap-shoot whenever he takes the ball. Age, some level of rebound is possible, but durability issues add to a less-than-optimistic outlook.
Chris Young has been a hot pickup in fantasy leagues off the waiver wire recently, as seven of his last eight starts have been of the pure quality variety, where he has allowed three earned runs or less in all eight. Safeco Field can make pitchers look awfully good but his road form leaves something to be desired and so do his skills. In 55 road innings, Young has been taken yard 12 times. That’s what you get with an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Young’s 24%/58% groundball/fly-ball split is the biggest discrepancy in the majors among pitchers with 10 or more starts. Over his last five starts, his groundball/fly-ball split is 20%/62%. Young’s 3.04 ERA is about the most mind-boggling ERA over the past 20 years but we’re here to tell you that it’s been all luck driven. He has been the beneficiary of an 84% strand rate and remarkably low 22% hit rate. Once those normalize, Young’s ERA is in for a big correction. That correction likely starts here against an Indians squad that owns the fourth best OPS in MLB versus right handed pitching at .751. This isn’t Safeco Field. The over/under for HR’s in this game should be 8½.
St. Louis @ SAN DIEGO
St. Louis +100 over SAN DIEGO
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
3:40 PM EST. Shelby Miller went 15-9 last season with an ERA of 3.06 with an oppBA of .234. This year has been a different story. Miller has walked 55 batters while striking out just 76 in 115.2 innings. He has an awful 1.44 WHIP, an ERA of 4.22 and an xERA of 4.86. The Cardinals had lost five straight with Miller starting from June 19 to July 10 and he was subsequently demoted to the bullpen. He pitched one inning of relief from July 10 to July 20 and has only pitched 6.2 innings since July 10. Last week he started against the Cubbies and with some rest behind him he didn’t walk a batter and gave up just three hits in 5.2 innings. If Miller is throwing strikes and he’s not fatigued, he’s hugely effective. He’s only allowed 111 hits in 115.2 frames and will now face a Padres team that ranks 30th in just about every key offensive category. Still, this one is more about fading Odrisamer Despaigne than it is about backing Shelby Miller.
Despaigne was finally hit with his first poor outing in his sixth start although he escaped by allowing just two earned runs despite giving up six hits and five walks in 3.2 innings. Consider his 1.66 ERA to be a complete mirage, as his skill set is sub-par. Despaigne’s plus minor league strikeout rate hasn't translated over to the majors. A poor swing and miss rate of 6% doesn't offer much hope for improvement, either. Despaigne has benefited from a trifecta of good fortune (hit%/strand%, hr/f) to get to his sub-2.00 ERA. xERA says he's actually been a below average pitcher under the surface. He's had trouble getting ahead in the count as shown by his first-pitch strike rate. The walk rate has predictably suffered, so his command is well into the danger zone. Despaigne has relied on a variety of arm slots with deception in his delivery to get to the major leagues. His surface stats, however, have been just as deceptive given the general lack of skill support so far. The 27-year-old Cuban defector was given an unimpressive prospect rating upon his call-up on June 25, which doesn't bode well for his ability to remain relevant. Selling Despaigne's hot start is the wise play here, as both his long-term potential and short-term skills don't measure up to his current level of performance.
Diamond Trends - Thursday
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Reds are 13-0 since June 15, 2004 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base in the last game of a series yesterday for a net profit of $1392.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 10-0 since April 17, 2012 as a home 140+ favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $1000.
CHOICE TREND:
The Angels are 10-0 since May 09, 2014 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 15-3 since April 12, 2012 as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065.
By Vince Akins
SU TREND OF THE DAY:
The Reds are 13-0 since June 15, 2004 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they left 18+ men on base in the last game of a series yesterday for a net profit of $1392.
PITCHER TREND OF THE DAY:
When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 10-0 since April 17, 2012 as a home 140+ favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $1000.
CHOICE TREND:
The Angels are 10-0 since May 09, 2014 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $1000.
ACTIVE TRENDS:
When Gio Gonzalez starts the Nationals are 15-3 since April 12, 2012 as a favorite in the first game of a series for a net profit of $1065.
GC: MLB Play
Throw back Thursday card has a Huge 100% 5* Blowout system, an Undefeated Dog system and the 90% MLB Total of the week from a system that Averages 12 runs per game- Bonus Plays are 19-7 of late. MLB System Play below.
On Thursday the MLB System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 907 at 7:10 eastern. Miami lost on Wednesday snapping their 6 game win streak and they have lost 4 straight in the series here to the Reds. Road favorites like the Reds are 10-1 off a home loss where they scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits in a game where the total was 8 or less and the opponent was at home in their last game. The Reds have J. Cueto on the mound and he has a stellar 2.47 road era. Look for the Reds to do enough to get the win here against T. Koehler and the Marlins who may bounce a littler now that their win streak is over. Take the Reds. On Thursday the lead play is the 5* MLB Blowout system which is perfect since 2004, their is also an undefeated dog system and the MLB Total of the Week from a Killer 90% Totals system that Averages 12 runs per game. Jump on now and cash out with some of the most devastating material and data that won't be seen any where else. For the Bonus Play take the Reds. GC
Throw back Thursday card has a Huge 100% 5* Blowout system, an Undefeated Dog system and the 90% MLB Total of the week from a system that Averages 12 runs per game- Bonus Plays are 19-7 of late. MLB System Play below.
On Thursday the MLB System play is on the Cincinnati Reds. Game 907 at 7:10 eastern. Miami lost on Wednesday snapping their 6 game win streak and they have lost 4 straight in the series here to the Reds. Road favorites like the Reds are 10-1 off a home loss where they scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits in a game where the total was 8 or less and the opponent was at home in their last game. The Reds have J. Cueto on the mound and he has a stellar 2.47 road era. Look for the Reds to do enough to get the win here against T. Koehler and the Marlins who may bounce a littler now that their win streak is over. Take the Reds. On Thursday the lead play is the 5* MLB Blowout system which is perfect since 2004, their is also an undefeated dog system and the MLB Total of the Week from a Killer 90% Totals system that Averages 12 runs per game. Jump on now and cash out with some of the most devastating material and data that won't be seen any where else. For the Bonus Play take the Reds. GC
Marc Lawrence
MLB
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs 2:20PM
Chicago Cubs w/Arrieta vs Hernandez
Edges - Cubs: Arrieta 3-0 team starts versus southpaws last two seasons, and 4-2 with 1.96 ERA home team starts this season. Rockies: Hernandez 8.14 ERA in 14 career MLB career team starts,including 9.83 away. With that look for the Cubs to make it four straight wins over left-handers here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Chicago Cubs. Thank you and good luck as always.
MLB
Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs 2:20PM
Chicago Cubs w/Arrieta vs Hernandez
Edges - Cubs: Arrieta 3-0 team starts versus southpaws last two seasons, and 4-2 with 1.96 ERA home team starts this season. Rockies: Hernandez 8.14 ERA in 14 career MLB career team starts,including 9.83 away. With that look for the Cubs to make it four straight wins over left-handers here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Chicago Cubs. Thank you and good luck as always.
Wunderdog Sports
Free Pick
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves +190
We all know about Clayton Kershaw. But, let's not forget the other pitcher today. Julio Teheran has posted a 2.71 ERA this season, going 10-6 in the process. He's struck out 132 batters, given up just 31 walks and only 45 earned runs. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game in his last eight starts. That could spell trouble for the Dodgers who average just 3.8 runs per game in this ballpark. Dating back to last season, the Braves are 53-39 vs. losing teams and 91-55 vs. NL teams that average under 4.4 runs per game. Over the past three seasons, Atlanta is 59-50 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just 9-18 this season after back-to-back wins. Take Atlanta to avoid the sweep.
Free Pick
Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Atlanta Braves +190
We all know about Clayton Kershaw. But, let's not forget the other pitcher today. Julio Teheran has posted a 2.71 ERA this season, going 10-6 in the process. He's struck out 132 batters, given up just 31 walks and only 45 earned runs. He hasn't allowed more than 3 runs in a game in his last eight starts. That could spell trouble for the Dodgers who average just 3.8 runs per game in this ballpark. Dating back to last season, the Braves are 53-39 vs. losing teams and 91-55 vs. NL teams that average under 4.4 runs per game. Over the past three seasons, Atlanta is 59-50 as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just 9-18 this season after back-to-back wins. Take Atlanta to avoid the sweep.
Bob Balfe
Toronto Blue Jays -135
Hutchinson/Cosart
The Bluejays have been hot as any team in baseball the last few weeks and are really hitting the ball well. This game comes down to Toronto just have better hitters. This team is in the zone right now as everyone on the roster is doing their part. A few wins against a bad team can really propel them to be on their way to a big playoff run. Take Toronto.
Toronto Blue Jays -135
Hutchinson/Cosart
The Bluejays have been hot as any team in baseball the last few weeks and are really hitting the ball well. This game comes down to Toronto just have better hitters. This team is in the zone right now as everyone on the roster is doing their part. A few wins against a bad team can really propel them to be on their way to a big playoff run. Take Toronto.
