Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons | MLB Money Line
dime bet 924 TEX (-149) Bodog vs 923 MIN
Free pick: UNDER TWINS / RANGERS
Analysis: For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:
Coming into Wednesday, the Twins are 48-55 this year; 26-25 at home and 22-30 on the road.
They've seen the total go "under" the number in 50 of 97 this year (with six "pushes").
Scott Baker (8-5, 2.88 ERA) toes the rubber for the visitors, and had this to say after his first start off the DL, vs. the Tigers last Sunday:
"I kind of had an idea that I was going to feel OK, because once I was done, I just felt like I got a good workout," Baker said.
"As far as a hurting type of soreness, I don't have anything like that. I haven't played catch yet, but I feel like everything should be fine."
Baker looked great, and has now allowed a grand total of a single run over his last three starts, spanning 17 1/3's innings; he has 17 K's while going 3-0 in that stretch.
In his last start vs. the Rangers, Baker pitched a complete game, giving up one run on five hits.
In the other dugout: Coming into Wednesday the Rangers are 59-45 this year; 34-20 at home and 25-25 on the road.
They've seen the total go "under" the number in 47 of 111 games this year (with three "pushes").
Matt Harrison (8-7, 3.05 ERA) gave up four runs off eight hits in 6 2/3's innings of work in the Rangers' 5-4 win over the Blue Jays on Saturday.
He had eight K's and did not issue a walk, and was tagged with the no-decision.
Note though that Harrison came into that start having allowed three runs in his last three outings combined for a sub 1.00 ERA in the month of July.
Harrison is 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA in his only start vs. Minnesota this year.
Bottom line: I have a "free" selection on the "under in this game; I simply believe the hard hitting home side salvages the final game of this series, after dropping the last two and after winning the first one by 20-5; classic "letdown" spot for the visitors; 6* play on the TEXAS RANGERS!