Service Plays Thursday 7/24/08

[rocky2]

Gina

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

Philadelphia has won eight of the last 11 meetings in New York and lefty Jamie Moyer is 2-0 wuth a 2.75 ERA in his last three starts, 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three starts against the Mets this season. However, the hot Mets have won 12 of their last 15 games and eight of its last 9 at home.

Go with the surging Mets at Shea Stadium. New York has won four of the last 5 meetings versus the Phillies, including Wednesday's 6-3 victory and have won five of Perez's last 6 home starts.

New York Mets -135

 

[Boxer22]

BobbyClarkeSports day game night games to come later

Phillies (Moyer) wager $300 to win $390

So far this week (6-1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Erin Rynning

MLB Playmaker: NY Mets Under 9

 

[PC16]

NSA

100-66-2 since June 17th (24-10 on 20*) / 2nd half season 29-13-0 (6-1 on 20*) 14-3 last 3 days


early game

METS

 

[rocky2]

A.n.t.o.n. W.i.n.s.

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>Today's 3 unit MLB play is Philadelphia/J. Moyer +120.

Please don't forget about tomorrows FREE CHARITY play promotion.

Best of luck.

*****
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[rocky2]

Ben Burns' BLUE CHIP Total *9-2 L11 MLB Totals (Day Game)
I'm playing on the Giants and Nationals to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series have both managed to slip above the number. However, I'm expecting to see a pitcher's duel this afternoon. In addition to having a pair of solid starters on the mound, let's remember that these are two of the four lowest-scoring teams in the league, along with San Diego and Seattle. Even with the results of the first two games, the UNDER remains a profitable 7-3-1 the last 11 series meetings. Cain goes for Giants and he's seen five of his last eight starts stay below the number, allowing three earned runs or less in six of those. He's gone a minimum of six complete innings in each of his last four starts (average of 6 3/4) and has allowed three earned runs or less in three of those starts, including 0 earned runs in two of those. Cain has dominated the Nationals the last few times he has faced them, recording a 1.40 ERA by allowing just three combined runs in 19 1/3 innings. All three of those games stayed below the total with scores of 3-2, 5-0 and 4-1. Redding was roughed up at Atlanta last time out. However, in fairness to him, let's keep in mind that it was his first loss since May 9th. Overall, he was 3-0 with a 3.86 ERA since his last defeat. In his previous start, he shutout the Astros for six scoreless innings, recording six K's without issuing a walk. In his start before that, he limited the Reds to one run through six complete innings, eventually settling for a no-decision in a game that finished with a final score of 3-2. He hasn't faced the Giants yet this season. He did face them twice last year though. Both games fell below the total, including one vs. Cain, finishing with scores of 3-2 and 5-0. Despite yesterday's result, the Nationals have still seen the UNDER go 38-25 in 63 games against right-handed starters this season. They've also seen the UNDER go 18-11-1 in 30 games played during the afternoon. Look for those numbers to improve as this afternoon's final combined score stays beneath the number once again. *Blue Chip
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[CaliDreaming]

B Burns CFL game of the year Winnipeg

 

[rocky2]

WUNDERDOG

MLB

Washington at San Francisco
2 units on San Francisco -1.5 runs +162

The road woes continue for the Nationals as they have now gone 3-12 over their last 15 away from Washington. The Giants continue their mastery over the Nats as they have now won all six games played this season, outscoring them 37-13 in the process. Tim Redding has had the fortune of five runs or more in 16 of his starts while the Nats have only produced five runs or more 37 times the entire season, so his record is a bit misleading. The Giants? Tim Cain has pitched better of late, allowing zero runs in two of his last four starts. We look for the Giants to come away with another convincing win here for the sweep


WNBA

Chicago at San Antonio
2 units on Chicago +9

If you look at the road-loss column for the Sky, it doesn't offer much as they have been just 2-9 on the season, matching a league-low two road wins with lowly Atlanta. What it doesn't say is this team is not getting blown out as they have dropped just two of the 11 by double-digits and none in their last six games. San Antonio has been one of the best teams in the WNBA all season and has had similar results at home where they stand 11-2. After starting the home schedule with three double-digit wins in their first four games, they have not beaten anyone by 10+ since as their largest home margin has been just eight points. This looks like a considerable overlay on the part of the odds-makers and we'll scoop up the value and take the Sky and the bundle of points here.


Phoenix at Sacramento
2 units on OVER 182

Phoenix seems to keep raising the bar in terms of scoring and getting up and down the court, but the problem is they don't compliment it by playing any defense at all. They have allowed over 93 points a game in their last nine. The Mercury is also scoring over 100 a game in their last three, but overall this may be a fun team to watch, but the results don't match the success on the offensive end. Less than two weeks ago, these teams put up over 200 points and we see a similar result in this one, so OVER gets the call here.


Los Angeles at Connecticut
2 units on Los Angeles +5.5

The Connecticut Sun have fallen apart. They once looked like the best team in the WNBA jumping out to an 8-1 start, but have been anything but since. The Sun is just 6-9 over their last 15 games and hasn't beaten a team with a winning record since beating Detroit 10 games ago. The Spark is the only WNBA team playing .500 or better on the road and is coming off a confidence-boosting win at Detroit. The Sun is just not the team the record would indicate. The Spark has a chance to win this one, so the points look like they offer a lot of value and we'll back them here

 

[rocky2]

Pupsnchalk Sports

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have yet to earn a win against the Giants this season and are on the verge of getting swept for the second time at the hands of the G-men when the two conclude their three game set this afternoon. The Nats hope Tim Redding give another solid performance and the bullpen can hold a lead as he gets the start in the day game.

Tim Redding has been who the Nats call on after a loss. They are 10-2 in games he starts after a loss in their previous game. Redding has yet to lose when taking the mound under the sun going 2-0 this season with a 3.91 ERA. He has been the Nats most productive pitcher and gives them the best chance of stopping the streak. The Nats are 15-6 when Redding takes the hill overall including 6-3 on the road. He is coming off a disappointing outing against the Braves but expect him to rebound with a solid performance this afternoon.

Matt Cain will try to rebound as well from another poor performance. The right hander walked five in his last outing giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in six innings of a 9-1 home loss to the Brewers. He fell to 5-8 on the season with the Giants just 7-14 in games he starts this year. To make matters worse he is 0-4 in day game starts with a 5.40 ERA. The Giants are 0-8 in day games when he takes the hill. The Giants are just 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts.

Even though the Nats came up short last night the one positive we can take away from the loss is the offense showed signs of life. The return of Ryan Zimmerman who knocked in 3 hits last night, gives their lineup some much needed help. The Giants are 4-12 in Cains last 16 home starts with chalk of -110 to -150.Play on the Washington Nationals for 1 unit.

 

[Rivergold]

B Burns CFL game of the year Winnipeg

I heard sebastian has a big play on Winnipeg tonite also..can anyone confirm?

 

[ytowngambler]

FYI:

Larry Ness taking the day off for those looking for his plays....

 

[$kipper]

Dwayne Bryant

<table align="center" bgcolor="#ffffff" border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="0" width="600"><tbody><tr> <td bgcolor="#cccccc">8:15 PM ET
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers (Sheets) at St. Louis Cardinals (Wellemeyer)</td></tr> <tr> <td bgcolor="#ebebeb"> Pick: St. Louis Cardinals (Listed Pitchers) +118
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We have to take a serious look at the Cards in this spot and at a very nice price. The Brewers have won the first three games of this series and are looking for their first-ever four-game sweep in St. Louis. The Cards have not lost four in a row this season.
Ben Sheets has been solid again this season, but St. Louis is the one team that has Sheets' number. Milwaukee is 1-8 in Sheets' last nine starts vs. the Cards. Wellemeyer doesn't have the numbers that Sheets has, but he pitched well in his first start against the Brewers, which came on May 9th. Wellemeyer went six innings and did not allow an earned run.
I have to take the value with the home dog, St. Louis/Wellemeyer, over Milwaukee/Sheets.
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[rocky2]

Marco D'Angelo
Padres (-106)

Analysis: Sometimes in Sports Betting you just have to trust your reads and instincts. I have made a very comfortable living trusting my reads whether it be at a Poker Table or in a Sports Book. The line on tonight's Pittsburgh/ San Diego Game is a trap. Vegas wants you to bet Pittsburgh as they are begging for the action. Pittsburgh returns home off the sweep of Houston and is made just a -110 favorite? C'Mon what's up with that? When I see something like this I know that I will be on the right side an average of 7 of out of every 10 times I see this situation. I have Bet San Diego personally and I highly advise you do the same. TAKE SAN DIEGO as MARCO'S VEGAS TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY.

 

[rocky2]

Tony George

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Royals /Rays UNDER 8.5

Neither one of these teamsd in the last 10 games have broken .217 as team with a batting average against right handers. Detroit just hammered KC in KC, a series I went to, and KC's bats are non exsistent. With Meche on the hill for KC, and Garza on the hill for the Rays, both solid pitchers, I expect a tight game here and low scoring as 2 pitchers who are solid should go 6 innings and with no bats for either team right now a 3-2 type ballgame is a strong possibility.

Play 1 Unit on the UNDER

 

[rocky2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Orioles/Blue Jays UNDER

Some of this analysis was presented with yesterdays play as it was a total we got somewhat burned on. Yesterdays game was suspended with a 2-1 score as they were heading to the bottom of the 6th inning. As noted in yesterdays analysis: A low total was posted on this game and many will be jumping on the over because of the recent results for these two clubs. However, the key here is the pitching match-up as the old adage is true that good pitching stops good hitting. The Orioles have scored 40 runs in their 6 games since the All Star Break. All but one of those has gone over the total. As for the Blue Jays, they have scored 26 runs in their last 4 games and all four games went over the total. However, all this slugfest activity comes to an end on Thursday afternoon courtesy of Roy Halladay of the Jays and Daniel Cabrera of the Orioles. Halladay has defeated the Orioles seven straight times and, overall, the Jays ace is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA in his 23 career games against Baltimore. Halladay is coming off of a loss in his most recent start but it was his first defeat since mid-June. It was really one pitch, Evan Longorias grand slam, that cost him the game. That said, look for him to bounce back and come up with another strong effort on Thursday afternoon. The key to the Under in this match-up is that Halladay will be matched by his counterpart, Cabrera, pitch for pitch today. The Orioles Cabrera is coming off of a rough start versus the Tigers in his most recent outing but note that he was simply done in by a tough first inning. That rough start came at Camden Yards but in his prior home start he pitched a complete game against the Royals and got the win as he allowed just two earned runs in a very impressive home outing! Cabrera is undefeated at home in his eight starts at Camden Yards this season and we expect more domination this afternoon. With the bats finally quieted in this series, todays Game Four stays well UNDER the total thanks to a pitchers duel between Halladay and Cabrera, two very capable workhorses.

 

[rocky2]

Brian Smith

2* Rays
1* Marlins

 

[rocky2]

Earl Morgan

3* Cardinals
2* Mets/Phillies Under
1* Nationals, Blue Jays

 

[rocky2]

Vernon Croy Afternoon Bookie Buster of the Month

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

We are getting solid value here tonight with the Jays who have their ace on the mound since Roy Halladay (11-7, 2.89 ERA) is the superior pitcher in this match-up. Halladay has an ERA of just 2.85 on the road this season and Daniel Cabrera (6-5, 4.57 ERA) has struggled at home this season with an ERA of 5.22 over 8 starts. Cabrera has also struggled to find the strike zone over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 6.32 while walking 15 batters over just 15.7 innings. Halladay has owned the Orioles with a 16-4 record over 23 starts while Cabrera has struggled against the Jays with a 4-7 record over 15 starts with an ERA of 4.48. The Orioles are just 3-8 over Cabrera's last 11 starts and I look for the Jays to hit him hard Thursday afternoon. The Orioles are just 9-22 in day games this season while the Jays have thrived in day games with a 20-12 record. Take Toronto as my MLB Afternoon Bookie Buster of the Month

 

[rocky2]

Robert Ferringo

1-Unit Play. Take Under 9.0 Philadelphia at New York Mets

1-Unit Play. Take Philadelphia (+125) over New York Mets

2-Unit Play. Take Over 8.0 Toronto at Baltimore

1.5-Unit Play. Take Toronto (-140) over Baltimore

1.5-Unit Play. Take Over 8.0 Milwaukee at St. Louis

1.5-Unit Play. Take Tampa Bay (-120) over Kansas City

1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+130) over San Francisco

1-Unit Play. Take Pittsburgh (-110) over San Diego

I also have solid leans on the Over in the Florida game and the Cardinals today.

 

[rocky2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Jake Timlin

Thursday selection is the Kansas City Royals.

In what is a tough situation for the Rays look for the Royals to seal one away from Tampa Bay. You see after playing yesterday it is Tampa Bay who is rolling in Kansas City having lost their last 6 games on the highway and do so tonight against the Royals who had a day to rest up. Even more it will be the Rays who will be pitching Garza who while good at home this year is just 2-4 on the highway as the righty is also 0-3 in four career starts against Kansas City. Meanwhile for the Royals they have won 6 of the last 7 games started by Meche, including a 7-4 win against Garza in Tampa Bay earlier this month. Flat out rolling with trend numbers look for the Royals to steal game 1 of this series tonight. All Kansas City!
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