Service Plays Thursday 7/24/08

[ma3x]

Marc Lawrence

Game: Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals Jul 24 2008 8:10PM
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Reason: Play On: Kansas City w/Meche vs Garza
Note: The Royals open a four game series with the Rays in Kansas City this evening when Gil Meche takes on Matt Garza. Life on the road during the month of July has been real tough on the Jays the last two seasons as evidenced by its 2-19 mark the last two seasons. With Meche's 3.82 ERA at home considerably stronger than his 5..25 ERA on the road this season and Garza's 5.91 road ERA dramatically worse than his 2.10 home ERA.

 

[rocky2]

Ross Benjamin 15* GOW


Event Date: 07/24/2008

Play: Toronto -145 (15*)

Comments: Toronto (Halladay) @ Baltimore (Cabrera)
The Toronto starter Roy Halladay enters this game in great form off of his last 3 starts posting a 2.03 ERA, a better than 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio, and a 0.81 WHIP. In 13 road starts this season Halladay has posted a 2.78 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and almost a 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Baltimore starter Daniel Cabrera enters this game in terrible form off of his last 3 starts posting a 6.32 ERA, a 2.04 WHIP, and having walked more than he has struck out. Since the start of the 2007 season Cabrera is 1-3 in his team starts versus Toronto with a lofty 5.26 ERA. The Orioles are 7-19 in day games this season while the Blue Jays are 20-10 in 2008 during the day. The Baltimore starter Cabrera is 1-8 in his last 9 team starts as a home underdog of 1.50 or less. The Toronto starter Halladay is 17-4 in his last 21 team starts versus Baltimore and 53-18 in his last 71 versus a team with a less than .500 winning percentage. Play on the Toronto Blue Jays as my 15* MLB Game of the Week.

 

[rocky2]

CHARLIES SPORTS MEMBERS SECTION Charlies Sports Members Section



thursday july 24, 2008.

mlb. tampa bay @ kansas city under 8' runs (500*)

mlb. toronto-120 (30*)

mlb. pittsburgh-110 (20*)

mlb. st. louis+120 (20*)

mlb. san francisco-140 (10*)

mlb. mets-130 (10*) Bonus Play
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[pirates]

Rocketman

Toronto @ Baltimore 12:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Toronto -135 (Halladay/Cabrera) Listed

Toronto bullpen has a 3.13 ERA overall this year and a 3.26 ERA on the road this season. Halladay has a 2.89 ERA in all games this year, 2.94 ERA in all starts this year, 2.85 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA his last 3 starts. Cabrera is 0-1 with a 6.32 ERA his last 3 starts. Halladay is 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA overall vs Baltimore since 1997. We'll play Toronto for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Rocky has a TOP RATED 5* MLB play, TOP 4* MLB play and a 3* MLB play loaded on Thursday! Rocky went 3-1 yesterday in MLB and now 65% the past 16 days with all premium picks!

 

[rocky2]

ER Sports
Playmaker...Mets/Phillies Under

 

[rocky2]

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ NY Mets Under 9.5

The Under is 12-5-1 in Phillies last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 9-2 in Moyers last 11 starts as an underdog, while the Under is 9-1-2 in Mets last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 5-1 in Perezs last 6 starts as a favorite. Jamie Moyer is having a good year for the Phills with a 3.96 ERA overall, Including a 3.12 ERA on the road and a 2.75 ERA in his last 3 starts. HIs road starts average just 7.9 rpg, including just 5.8 rpg in his last 5 away from home, while his last 8 overall have averaged just 6.3 rpg. Jamie has always pitched well vs the Mets with a 2.89 ERA in 10 career starts vs them, with those games averaging 7.3 rpg and only 2 of those games scoring more than 9 runs. Oliver Perez has been on a roll of late, posting a 1.39 ERA in his last 4 starts, with those games averaging just 5.5 rpg. Oliver does have a 4.44 ERA at home overall, but just a 2.88 ERA in his last 4 starts at home, with those games averaging 6.5 rpg. Oliver has a 3.39 ERA in his career vs the Phills and in 3 starts this year vs them he has yet to allow a run to them in 18.1 innings of work. Both offense have been good of late as the Phils have scored 4.7 rpg in their last 9, while the Mets have put up 5.2 rpg in their last 10 games, but I really feel that today will be all about the pitching and if the teams couldn't put more than 9 runs on the board with the kind of pitching that was on the mound last night, then I don't see them doing it today vs these two starters. A pitchers duel in NY today.

Toronto -137 over BALTIMORE

The Blue Jays are 28-11 in Halladays last 39 starts during game 3 of a series and 17-4 in Halladays last 21 starts vs. Orioles, while the Orioles are 7-20 in their last 27 during game 3 of a series and 1-8 in Cabreras last 9 starts as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Roy Halladay has simply owned the Orioles in his career going 16-4 with a 3.09 ERA, including a 7-2 mark with a 3.46 ERA at Camden Yards. Roy is also 5-0 in his last 7 starts vs them, with a 2.67 ERA. Daniel Cabrera is 3-0 at home this year, but he has been living dangerously as he owns a 5.22 ERA in his home starts. That's thanks to the Orioles scoring over 6 rpg for him at home, but it won't happen today vs Mr. Halladay. The Orioles have scored just 2.9 rpg off Roy in his last 7 starts vs them, plus they score just 3.9 rpg in day games this year and they hit just .254 and score 4.8 rpg vs righty starters on the year and they average just 3.4 rpg in Daniel's day starts. Daniel is 4-7 with a 4.48 ERA in 15 starts vs the Jays, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.21 ERA in his last 3 starts vs them. The Jays offense has sputtered for much of the year, but they have come on lately, putting up 5.1 rpg in their last 9 games. They have also averaged 4.9 rpg in day games and 6.1 rpg in Roy's last 9 starts vs them. These teams must first finish yesterday's suspended game before playing this one, but no matter what happens in that one I expect Roy to have another dominant performance vs the O's and walk away with his 17th win vs them.

 

[rocky2]

Terron Chapman

Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals have yet to earn a win against the Giants this season and are on the verge of getting swept for the second time at the hands of the G-men when the two conclude their three game set this afternoon. The Nats hope Tim Redding give another solid performance and the bullpen can hold a lead as he gets the start in the day game.

Tim Redding has been who the Nats call on after a loss. They are 10-2 in games he starts after a loss in their previous game. Redding has yet to lose when taking the mound under the sun going 2-0 this season with a 3.91 ERA. He has been the Nats most productive pitcher and gives them the best chance of stopping the streak. The Nats are 15-6 when Redding takes the hill overall including 6-3 on the road. He is coming off a disappointing outing against the Braves but expect him to rebound with a solid performance this afternoon.

Matt Cain will try to rebound as well from another poor performance. The right hander walked five in his last outing giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs in six innings of a 9-1 home loss to the Brewers. He fell to 5-8 on the season with the Giants just 7-14 in games he starts this year. To make matters worse he is 0-4 in day game starts with a 5.40 ERA. The Giants are 0-8 in day games when he takes the hill. The Giants are just 1-6 in Cain's last 7 home starts.

Even though the Nats came up short last night the one positive we can take away from the loss is the offense showed signs of life. The return of Ryan Zimmerman who knocked in 3 hits last night, gives their lineup some much needed help. The Giants are 4-12 in Cains last 16 home starts with chalk of -110 to -150.Play on the Washington Nationals for 1 unit.

 

[rocky2]

Tony Karpinski

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City Royals

Meche pitched lights out in his last outing holding the offensive minded Tigers to 1 run on 2 Hits over 6.1 thirds . The D' Rays hand the ball to Matt Garza who has pitched well as his (8-5) record would attest .His last outing was a good one as he beat Toronto (6-4) giving up only 2 hits over 7.2 thirds Innings . His problem this year has come on the road though and that exactly where he'll find himself today .His record is just (2-4) .He has given up 11 Home Runs in 6 games to go along with 33 Runs. TB has dropped 7 in a row on the road and we'll back the ROYALS on Thursday night.

 

[rocky2]

Chris James Sports

Mets/Phillies Under 9.5

This afternoon is the final game of a 3 game set between the Mets and Phillies and it's also a battle for the first place spot in the National League East. The first two games have been full of excitement but look for this afternoon's game to be a very well pitched, slow-paced game. The Phillies send veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer to the mound who is 9-6 with a 3.9 ERA on the year. In his last 3 starts he is 2-0 with a 2.75 ERA. So far in 08' Moyer is 1-0 against the Mets with a 3.37 ERA and he is 7-4 in his career vs the Mets. Moyer has been a cash cow for the under going 7-1 in his last 8 starts. The Under is 9-2 in his last 11 starts as an underdog, 5-1 in his last 6 starts with the total set between 9-10.5 and 5-0 in his last 5 road starts. Moyer doesn't over power anyone, but strategically hits the corners and makes it tough for hitters to get extra base hits and keeps a lot of balls on the ground! The Mets send Oliver Perez to the mound who is 6-6 with a 4.36 ERA on the year. He has performed much better recently though with a 1.42 ERA in his last 3 starts. Perez has pitched four times against the Phillies this year but only getting one win. However, that isn't because of his pitching, he just hasn't gotten any run support. He currently has pitched 18 1/3 scoreless innings against the Phillies this year and looks to extend that today. He has only given up 11 singles, no extra base hits, those 18 1/3 innings pitched this year. Overall, the Under is 4-0 in his last 4 starts, and 5-1 in his last 6 starts as a favorite. Head to Head match-ups have gone under 4-0 in Moyer's last 4 road starts vs. the Mets, 6-1 in his last 7 overall starts vs. the Mets, and 5-1 in Perez's last 6 starts vs the Phillies. Chris James Bonus Play Selection today is on the Mets/Phillies to finish under the posted total!

 

[rocky2]

EZWINNERS

MLB
1 STAR: (903) WASHINGTON (+$124) over San Francisco
(Action)
(Risking $100 to win $124)

1 STAR: (910) ST. LOUIS (+$115) over Milwaukee
(Listing Wellemeyer only)
(Risking $100 to win $115)


CFL

3 STAR: (404) WINNIPEG (+6.5) over Calgary
(Risking $330 to win $300)

 

[rocky2]

Brian Hansen

Florida Marlins at Chicago Cubs
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are in too expensive of a price range to use as a pay play but we are recommending them tonight as Thursday's Member Pick. Why? Because even in the price range their in they're worth considering a small play on! Chicago is an amazing 37-12 at home this season. They're hosting a Marlins team that is sub-.500 on the road. This is why, even though Florida has won ten straight against the Cubs we don't foresee that streak continuing here! Want more? The return of Alfonso Soriano is huge for the Cubs. He came back last night after a long stint on the disabled list and he will inch closer to 100% with each game he gets under his belt! Carlos Zambrano is 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA this season. The Big Z is also 3-1 with a 2.54 in seven career starts against the Marlins. He'll be taking on a Marlins club that is coming off of a disappointing 3-3 home-stand where they averaged less than four runs per game! Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez are mired in bad slumps and that doesn't bode well for tonight's game. This is especially true with southpaw Scott Olsen on the mound for the Marlins. Even though he is 2-0 in his last five starts he's compiled a 4.78 ERA in those outings and the Cubs offense is lethal at Wrigley Field. That said, the Cubs should win this one in a ROUT!

 

[rocky2]

Mike Handzelek Rare O/U Game Of The Month

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets
Pick: Under

We're on the Under here as these teams will feel the high anxiety of a pennant race with their bats as sole possession of first place takes center stage this afternoon. We expect a tight hard fought battle with little runs on the board. The Phils with Moyer are 7-1 Under & 6-0 Under when Moyer is up against a winning team. The Phillies have been closing out Game 3's of a series going 7-1 Under. When Moyer hits the road with the total 9.0 to 10.5, he's 7-2 Under. The Mets as a home favorite of -110 to -150 are 7-0-1 Under. Perez has taken the hill the last 5 as a favorite of -110 to -150 and has gone a perfect 5-0 Under! Our Thunder is all on the Under for our Rare O/U Game Of The Month.


Strongest Play On The Board with Strong 8-0

Florida Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs

We're on the Cubs & Mexico City in Mex. Baseball. The Cubs have been beat up like a rag doll the L10 games by Florida. Expect the tide to turn here with Zambrano hurlin' BB's! The Cubs have hit LHP @ home for an amazing .325 average. The L10 games, Fla. comes in @ .231 vs. righties. Fla. has been a money-burning 14-37 when a dog in this +200 price range. The Marlins are 1-4 Thursdays & Olsen is also 1-4 as a road dog. Olsen is 0-5 when his opponent is off allowing 5+ runs. The Cubbies are a solid 10-2 @ home vs. winning teams & 40-11 @ home vs. teams with a losing road record. After allowing 5+ runs, Chicago is 36-16. Zambrano is king as a favorite in this -200 price range going 9-0. Carlos is 12-1 as an overall favorite & 5-0 starting off Game 1's. We're singin' Ha-de-ha-de-ho Sweet home Chicago!

 

[rocky2]

Jorge Gonzalez

American League East Game of the Month

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Roy Holiday (11-7, 2.89) has owned the Orioles over his career with a record of 16-4 and eight straight wins. Meanwhile Daniel Cabrera has cooled off considerably after a fast start to the season. Over his last three starts he has an ERA of 6.32. The Blue Jays are 4-0 in their last four games as a favorite while the Orioles are 1-7 as an underdog. I look for the Blue Jays to win this one on the road

 

[rocky2]

WNBA

Wunderdog

Chicago at San Antonio
Pick: Chicago +9

If you look at the road-loss column for the Sky, it doesn't offer much as they have been just 2-9 on the season, matching a league-low two road wins with lowly Atlanta. What it doesn't say is this team is not getting blown out as they have dropped just two of the 11 by double-digits and none in their last six games. San Antonio has been one of the best teams in the WNBA all season and has had similar results at home where they stand 11-2. After starting the home schedule with three double-digit wins in their first four games, they have not beaten anyone by 10+ since as their largest home margin has been just eight points. This looks like a considerable overlay on the part of the odds-makers and we'll scoop up the value and take the Sky and the bundle of points here.

 

[rocky2]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

SFG (-143) vs WAS

GIANTS By rallying for three runs in the bottom of the eighth last night the Giants were able to overcome a 4-3 deficit and knock off the Nationals 6-4. They also won Tuesdays game 6-3 and today, they are now going for the sweep! This really should come as no surprise as the Giants, despite their overall struggles this season, have had absolutely no problems with the Nationals this year! San Francisco is now a perfect 6-0 against Washington this season and the wins have often featured domination! Thats why the Giants have outscored the Nationals 37-13 in the six games. Thats an average win of 6-2 and with Matt Cain on the bump for the Giants this afternoon, the domination should absolutely continue! San Francisco is simply loaded with confidence against the Nationals and their starting pitcher, Cain, also has plenty of reason to be confident about todays game too! The Giants have lost Cains last three starts but hes posted a respectable 3.79 ERA while striking out 19 in 19 innings. Cain already defeated the Nationals earlier this season on June 9th and hes got a solid 3.00 ERA in his five career starts against Washington. What has been most impressive about Cain in his young career is his ability to dominate at home. He may not have the victories to show for it but the right-hander has a stellar .223 BAA at home and an impressive 3.49 ERA in his career starts at AT & T Park. Also note that opponents are hitting just .214 against Cain in his career daytime outings. Hes matched up with Tim Redding of the Nationals and the right-hander is on the fade now after a surprisingly strong start to the season. Redding is coming off of a loss at Atlanta where he was hammered for six runs in just four innings! Even though it was Reddings first loss in quite some time, his recent outings have shown some return to normalcy after his impressive numbers early this season. One area was his numbers are certainly not impressive is against the Giants. Versus San Francisco, Redding is 0-4 with a 6.49 ERA in 7 games (5 starts). Look for more struggles this afternoon as Redding has given up 29 hits in his last 21 innings over his last four starts. Averaging only about five innings per start is not a good sign for the Nationals either as that means that their subpar bullpen will be exposed here. This one is all Giants and thats why this play has been elevated to GOY status!

 

[rocky2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Winners Edge

NY Mets -135 , 4 units (game of the week)

KC Royals + 110 , 1 unit


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[rocky2]

Indian Cowboy Comp

L.A. Sparks +206 ML (1 unit selection only)

This is mean to be a 1 unit selection btw as I do this in the NBA all the time and have cashed on as high money line as the Grizzlies +1100 ML on the road at the Lakers and the Kings +1130 ML on the road at Denver with revenge. The same rules apply here as given the research Connecticut truly should not be favored and I will always take a shot on the ML in the course of a season, I wouldn't be surprised to see Conn win this game but given what the 5.5 line means to me overall and the fact that I have the Sparks as 48% of winning this game outright, I'll tack this one with the other 2 standard 3 unit plays in looking for a cash, this is similar to any underdog in baseball out there and the value is there.

Research:

Both teams sit at 14-10, the Sparks beat this team in OT at home their last ballgame, the Sparks come off a massive win on the road at Detroit so possible let down here and Conn is facing the daunting -5.5 spread, the worst spread in sports for a favorite in my opinion, the same goes for the -3.5 spread in football, just a ****ty spread always for the favorite and indicative that they expect the favorite to possibly lose outright, it's the worst spread in college basketball as well, whenever I see a -5.5 spread, I think Vegas believes there is a 40% chance that the underdog could win outright and that is usually the case. As per this game, Conn has revenge but they have been playing ****ty basketball and have lost 9 of their last 10 covers, if anything a lean on the Sparks to win this baby outright, heck, even 1 unit on the ML is not a bad idea here imo. Heck, it sits at +208 from where I stand.

 

[rocky2]

Scott Spreitzer

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals

I'm playing the Royals on Thursday night. Gil Meche has quietly thrown darts over his last seven starts. The Royals are 6-1 in those games and Meche has allowed just 16 earned runs and 53 base runners in 44 1/3 IP. That's a strong 3.25 ERA & 1.20 WHIP. The Rays will counter with Matt Garza, who has been "dog meat" in this situation. He's made four road night starts this season, Tampa has lost each game, and Garza has been smacked for a 7.26 ERA!

Play on: Kansas City

 

[rocky2]

<TABLE style="TABLE-LAYOUT: fixed" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=5 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width="85%" height="100%">Vegas Experts

St. Louis Cardinals at MIlwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has really stuck it to St. Louis through the first three games of this series and for tonight they've saved their ace in the hole, Ben Sheets, who is 6-1 on the road this season to go along with a 2.84 ERA. The Cardinals have scored just six runs in this series so far while the Brew Crew hitters are on fire, having now homered in 19 consecutive games.

Play on: Milwaukee



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[rocky2]

Tom Freese

Tampa Bay at Kansas City

Tampa Bay is 19-7 in Game 1 of a series and they are 36-15 their last 51 games as favorites. The Rays are 29-14 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of over 1.30 and they are 8-3 their last 11 games vs. righty starters. Kansas City is 11-23 off a loss and they are 15-32 after allowing 5 or more runs in their last game. The Royals are 36-84 vs. AL East foes and they are 7-15 with Gil Meche on the mound as an underdog.

PLAY ON TAMPA BAY