Service Plays Thursday 7/10/14

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Perry Mangfold Picks

Crusaders FC @ FK Ekranas -105 UEFA

Rosenberg Trodheim -475 @ FK Jelkava UEFA
 

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Cashout Dogs

2* Detroit Tigers

2*Pittsburgh Pirates

2*Atlanta Braves

2*Washington Nationals

2*New York Yankees
 

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Balfe

STL/Pitt OVER 8

Miller/Volquez
Edinson Volquez has been brilliant on paper in his last three starts, but the opponents were just not able to take advantage of his walks and the hits they did get on him leaving tons of runners in scoring position. Shelby Miller has looked awful as of late and his control has been all over the place. Both of these pitchers put their fair share of men on base via the walk which is always good when you need runs. Take the Over.
 

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SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS 344-288-12 YTD


Bonus Play: Oakland -120 vs San Francisco


Thursday 7/10 Service Plays


Once again we won our early game and had all the momentum going into our 2 late games last night. We loved both of those games and things just didn't go our way. You might be calling us crazy to ride the Brewers once again today after they broke our heart with our 5* play last night and the previous 2 nights but NO WAY the Phillies can go into Milwaukee and sweep them in a 4 game series!! I would love for them to prove us wrong!! Let's get the big day today and get some money back!!


MLB


Reds RL -1.5 +145


Milwaukee RL -1.5 EVEN


NY Yankees +120


Atlanta +105


LA Angels RL -1.5 +135
 
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Thursday card has the Triple Perfect American League Game of the Month, a 91% totals system with 7 angles and a 14-0 Blowout system. Bonus Plays on a 9-0 run. MLB totals Play below.


On Thursday The MLB totals play is on the over in the Detroit at KC Game. Rotation numbers 967/968 at 8:10 eastern. Bonus Play are on a 9-0 run. In The 3 games here between these 2 have all played over with 10+ runs in each game. We also have a powerful totals system here tonight that has gone over 80% since 2004 and the system plays on any road team like Detroit that won by 2 or more runs as a home favorite in a game where the total was 8 or less and they scored 4 or less and their opponent, KC in this case comes in off a road dog win in a game where the total also was 8 or less. KC came back and stole one last night 5-4 in Tampa to active this system The Tigers have gone over both times on the road off a home win this year. The Tigers are scoring over 6 runs per game the past week. Smyly goes for Detroit and he has an elevated 5.93 era in his last 3 starts and has pitched over in 5 of 7 road starts. Guthrie for KC has struggled of late with his last 3 starts going over the total. Current form and the system says this ones high scoring. Take the over. On Thursday there are 3 Big MLB Plays up led by the Triple Perfect American League Game Of the Month, a 14-0 Blowout system and a 91% MLB Totals System that has 7 Powerful angles. Jump on and put the Most Powerful Data and Material on your side tonight. For the Free MLB Play take the Over in the Detroit at Kansas City Game. GC
 

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Primetime Insiders

2* Plays

Oakland -119 **There is too much value on the line in this contest with Kazmir on the mound for the best team in baseball**


CHW and Boston Under 8 **Quintana has been solid over his last 4 starts and Lester has been equally as dominate. We would be surprised if the final score was anywhere near 8**
 

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Vegas Sports Insiders

Thursday's picks (High Rollers Club)

20* Pittsburgh Pirates and 10* MLB Under 8

20* Detroit Tigers and 10* MLB Over 8

20* San Francisco Giants and 10* MLB Under 7

20* New York Yankees and 10* MLB Under 8.5

20* Cincinnati Reds and 10* MLB Over 8
 

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MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts

The last time the Kansas City Royals faced the division-leading Detroit Tigers they had a huge challenge in front of them and passed with flying colors, briefly taking over first-place in the AL Central. Tonight, they begin a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium, where the Tigers are 3-0 this season, and if the Royals want to carry some momentum into the All-Star break, they'll have to rise to the occasion like they did three weeks ago when they took three of four at Detroit.

The highlight of the Royals’ season has been carrying a seven-game win streak into Detroit and extending it to 10 straight by taking the first three from the Tigers. They briefly tasted the good life at the top, but almost as quickly, found themselves back in second place, as they proceeded to lose four straight and then seven of nine. Since then, they've regrouped and have won six of their last 10. It's not what one would call a great run, but they have at least righted the ship somewhat and sit 4.5-games behind Detroit in the standings.

Prior to the Royals’ June surge, the Tigers had beaten K.C. in all five meetings on the season, including a three-game sweep May 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium, where they outscored the home team 26-8. When the Tigers lost control of the division momentarily, they weren't shaken a bit. In fact, they took it on as a challenge to show the upstarts what a championship-caliber team does by winning 14 of their next 19 in a stressed setting, a run they ride into tonight's game.

The Royals are -108 favorites tonight behind Jeremy Guthrie (5-7, 4.10 ERA), who is 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA against the Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. He got rocked in his last start Saturday at Cleveland, where he gave up six runs off of 11 hits in four innings of work. However, prior to that stinker, he was on a nice roll, as the Royals had won four straight behind him, including 2-1 at Detroit, where he beat tonight's Tigers starter Drew Smyly (4-8, 3.89).

That June 18 meeting with the Royals was actually one of Smyly's better starts of the season. He matched a season-high seven innings pitched, allowing two runs off seven hits and walking none. In 14 starts this season, that was the only game where Smyly didn't walk anyone. Former Tiger Omar Infante hit a solo homer off him in the fifth-inning, which turned out to be the game winner.

While Guthrie was hit hard in his last start, Smyly has been slapped around pretty good himself over his last two. On Friday, the Rays got five runs off him in 5 1/3 innings, and in his prior start, at Houston on June 29, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, giving up eight hits and for runs.

On the season, Smyly has been one of the better pitchers for bettors to pick against. The Tigers are 4-10 behind him this season for -9.7 units, the fourth worst return-on-investment figure in all of baseball.

The Tigers are clearly the better team overall, but every fifth day behind Smyly, they are less than average, and this happens to be one of those days. Let's lay the short price with the Royals.

Why mess with Kershaw?

When looking at the Dodgers approaching -300 on the oddsboard against the Padres tonight, the first instinct for most is to make a case for the underdog, since you can get paid off like a two-team parlay for the price of one bet.

Is there value with the worst-hitting (.216) and lowest-scoring (3 runs per game) club in baseball against a pitcher who hasn't allowed a run in 36 straight innings? Those types of numbers sure don't sound enticing to side with the underdog, especially since Clayton Kershaw is riding a seven-game winning streak.

In his last outing against the Padres in September, he won 4-0, allowing only three hits and striking out 10 in seven innings. However, he lost all three previous starts against the Padres last season, two of which were at Dodger Stadium.

You know you're not going to get much support out of the Padres' bats tonight, but what about their starter, 27-year-old Cuban right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne (2-0, 0.92)? He's only allowed two earned runs combined in his three starts this season.

As crazy as it might sound, there actually is some value going against Kershaw and siding with the light-hitting Padres tonight at +250 and also on UNDER the posted total of 6 runs.

Thursday selections:

Royals (Guthrie) -108 vs Tigers, 8:10 p.m. ET

Angels (Santiago) -125 at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Padres (Despaigne) +250 at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Padres/Dodgers UNDER 6 (-110),

Pirates (Volquez) +110 at Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. ET
 

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Wunderdog Sports

Complimentary MLB Pick for July 10th, 2014

Game: Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants 3:45 PM Eastern

Pick: San Francisco +114

The San Francisco Giants were not as good as the 43-23 team we saw to start the season, nor are they as bad as the one that has gone 7-18 since. The good part is that they have gone from being severely over-valued to a team that is now under-valued. The Giants dropped two straight in Oakland, but won here last night at home 5-2. Both Scott Kazmir and Tim Hudson have had strong starts to their season, and each enters with an identical 2.53 ERA on the season. Oakland has been good, but has met their match on the road in interleague games when they take on a winning team where they are an ugly 17-42 in their last 59. Oakland has really struggled on the other side of the bay, as they have a 3-13 mark in their last 16 in San Francisco. Play on San Francisco.
 

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SPORTSWAGERS

MLB

Washington @ BALTIMORE

Washington -102 over BALTIMORE

(Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)

Gio Gonzalez went more than 7 IP only three times in 2012. In 2013, he reached that mark only twice. His skills describe a borderline star, lacking the control and endurance to take the next step. He has been the same pitcher for three straight years but that’s not a bad thing at all, as Gonzalez owns a 3.22 ERA over that span with an oppBA of .227. Over his last 26 innings, covering four starts, Gonzalez has struck out 25 batters and now has 78 K’s in 77 innings overall. His line drive rate of 17% this season is among the top five in the game and over his last four starts that line-drive rate is even lower at 15%. Hitters are not making good contact on him. Starting for one of the best teams in the majors and taking back a small tag against Wei-Yin Chen makes Gonzalez very worthy of backing here.

Washington’s .281 combined batting average against southpaws is the best in the NL and second best in the majors, just three percentage points behind the Tigers. The Nationals will now face a very hittable one here. Chen comes in with back-end of the rotation numbers which includes a 1.30 WHIP, 69 K’s in 89 innings, a 4.12 overall ERA and 4.53 xERA over his last eight starts. His 8-3 record is one of the most misleading in the game, as Chen has just seven pure quality starts in 17 attempts this season. That does not equate to just three losses in 17 starts. Chen has been the beneficiary of some decent run support but other than his good control there is nothing else in his profile that stands out. Chen is a below average pitcher on a good team that probably should not be favored over Gonzalez and the Nationals.


Chicago @ CINCINNATI

CINCINNATI -1½ +148 over Chicago

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.96)

12:35 PM EST. The Cubs have lost the first four games of this series and that includes a DH played on Tuesday in which they blew a 5-0 lead in the night-cap. Since trading Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel, the Cubs are 0-6 and have been outscored by a count of 25-12. Kyle Hendricks is set to make his MLB debut and he will attempt to fill the tremendous hole in the rotation left by that aforementioned trade. Hendricks is previewed in our MLB call-ups section so you can read more about him there. Thing is, Hendricks would not be here had the Cubbies not traded two starters. Kendrick’s best pitch is his changeup while his fastball rarely reaches 90 MPH. Control starters who dominate lower levels with a plus change-up rarely have success at this level. We saw an example of that with David Holmberg, a pitcher with a similar profile who was whacked and didn’t last four innings in his MLB debut. His best pitch was also a changeup. The Cubbies need innings and bodies right now to round out their rotation and for a reeling team that’s not the best position to be in.

Cincinnati’s only loss over that last seven games was a 1-0 defeat against the Brewers. Homer Bailey started the season with a trio of poor starts but has rebounded by throwing a pure quality start in 13 of his next 15. His 4.15 ERA for the season may look unappealing but his 3.57 ERA over his last 15 starts is right in line with his 3.48 xERA. Homer Bailey has come alive with a fastball that he’s gained a couple of MPH on. His swing and miss rate continues to creep up and is now at an elite 12% on the year and 18% in his last start. Best of all, with two uninterrupted seasons, he's beginning to shake the "injury-prone" label. His dominant start/disaster start split indicates that he's a blossoming ace, and skills trend confirms it. Yeah, we’ll bite.


Oakland @ SAN FRANCISCO

SAN FRANCISCO +110 over Oakland

(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)

Starting pitchers should be treated like stocks. Perceived value is more important than inherent value. When a stock becomes overvalued compared with a valuation estimate, you sell it, even if the company is a good one. The same goes for pitchers and while Scott Kazmir is a good pitcher, now is the time to sell high. Kazmir’s 2.53 ERA is far below his 3.42 xERA, hinting that a correction, perhaps a major one, is coming. The vast majority of pitchers will eventually regress toward what their underlying peripherals suggest. Kazmir plays for a good defense in a pitcher-friendly home park but it’s simply not enough to prevent Kazmir’s ERA from rising, and likely above 3.00. The next concern relates to both his fastball and strikeout rate. One is driving the other and both are going in the wrong direction. Kazmir has lost 2 MPH on his fastball and although he has 99 K’s in 110 innings, he has struck out four batters or less in four of his past 10 starts. A decline in strikeouts is coming also. Then there’s the endurance issue as well. Kazmir pitched just 158 innings last year. He hasn’t thrown more than 165 innings since 2007. He dealt with triceps tightness during spring training and was removed from a start in mid-April with a sore triceps. He now has 110 innings under his belt this year. This is his final start before the break and he has to be feeling fatigued. He’s coming off a seven-inning gem against the Blue Jays in which he threw 113 pitches, which is the most he’s thrown in a single game this season and the most he’s thrown in a game since June 10 of 2010, four years ago! A tired Scott Kazmir could certainly run into trouble today against a Giants team that is hitting .268 at home against southpaws.

Tim Hudson missed the last two months of last year with a broken ankle. Up to that point, he was defying the aging curve yet again, even reversing 2012's strikeout rate and command declines. Concerns at this point center on his age and health grade but a broken ankle does not presage a physical demise. Hudson looks as good as ever. He owns the third-lowest hit rate in the NL with runners on base. His 19% hit % in that situation combined with a 0% hr/f with runners on has fueled his surface stats (2.53 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) but even with that he still owns an xERA of 3.24. Hudson's continued combination of outstanding control (16 BB in 114 innings) and groundballs (57%) make him a huge buy-low target in this game. Invest with confidence.
 

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Behind The Bets

MLB

Cincinnati Reds -132

Oakland Athletics -117
 
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Ecks and Bacon


Ben lee won both plays on Wednesday in World Cup Soccer a $25 play on Argentina +$140/Netherlands and a play on the Draw +$220.

"Mr Chalk" won on Wednesday in MLB in Interleague play with the Tigers -$125/Dodgers.

E&B have Np for Thursday.

"Mr Chalk" has Np in MLB for Thursday.

Ben lee is 3-3 +$59 for week thirty seven 172-198-5 -$2830

"Mr Chalk" is 48-36 -$342 for the 2014 MLB season.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted
 

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Goodfella

Thursday MLB Team Total

WASHINGTON NATIONALS OVER 4 RUNS
 

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Chi Cubs +110, 1st 5 innings, 2* - For those of you who know me, you know I like playing the 1st 5 inning bets with pitchers who hitters haven't seen. This Hendricks kid is solid & there's little to no tape on him. I like him to mow through the line-up the first time through, before hitters can make an adjustment. Phillips hurt for the Reds, and that impacts their line-up no doubt. And which Bailey do we get? The one from the last 2 games or the one before that who struggled? Regression says somewhere in between, and we'll take our chances here.


CWS/Boston UNDER 8, -115, 2* - Quintana & Lester are enough to play this under. Boston's lineup has been inconsistent with hitting this year, and I like Quintana to slow them down enough. Lester SHOULD be as motivated as ever with a new contract in the works, and because we're on the early game and I can't wait to see lineups, I am guessing that a couple 'hitters' will sit this one out. Even if they don't, I think this line is a little high simply because of playing at Fenway. So we'll take a 2* chance here.
 

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HOT CHICKS PICKS / Britney DeLuca

Take SAN FRANCISCO +110 to stand tall again today!

Take THE ANGELS -120 to fly high above Texas!

Take PITTSBURGH +105 to chase the red birds away!
 
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LINESHEET GROUP

Good morning,


Here are today's selections.




Grand Slam
Indians -125
A's -120

Daily dog

Pirates +105
White Sox +140


For those who can bet an early game Phillies +190 is certainly has some

value and you can ad it, if you want to take a stab at a big dog.
 

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GoodFella | MLB RunLineThu, 07/10/14 - 10:10 PM
triple-dime bet
960 LOS -1.5 (-120) JustBet vs 959 SDP
PLAY: "MLB Run-Line GOW" 3* on LA DODGERS -1.5 (@sportsbook.ag)
RATING: TRIPLE DIME PLAY

Kershaw Must Start

I'm all over the freak Kershaw and these LAD tonight. Clayton is just what this club needs, as he is simply the most dominant SP in the game & is quite simply on top of his game more than ever right now. He gets the most anemic offense in the game in the Padres tonight & I flat out expect Clayton to outpitch the youngster (Despaigne) for the Padres (especially at Dodgers Stadium). I'm all over big game Kershaw to stop the bleeding for his club tonight & we are all ove²r the LA DODGERS -1.5 tonight.
 

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