MLB Odds and Picks
By: Micah Roberts
The last time the Kansas City Royals faced the division-leading Detroit Tigers they had a huge challenge in front of them and passed with flying colors, briefly taking over first-place in the AL Central. Tonight, they begin a four-game series at Kauffman Stadium, where the Tigers are 3-0 this season, and if the Royals want to carry some momentum into the All-Star break, they'll have to rise to the occasion like they did three weeks ago when they took three of four at Detroit.
The highlight of the Royals’ season has been carrying a seven-game win streak into Detroit and extending it to 10 straight by taking the first three from the Tigers. They briefly tasted the good life at the top, but almost as quickly, found themselves back in second place, as they proceeded to lose four straight and then seven of nine. Since then, they've regrouped and have won six of their last 10. It's not what one would call a great run, but they have at least righted the ship somewhat and sit 4.5-games behind Detroit in the standings.
Prior to the Royals’ June surge, the Tigers had beaten K.C. in all five meetings on the season, including a three-game sweep May 2-4 at Kauffman Stadium, where they outscored the home team 26-8. When the Tigers lost control of the division momentarily, they weren't shaken a bit. In fact, they took it on as a challenge to show the upstarts what a championship-caliber team does by winning 14 of their next 19 in a stressed setting, a run they ride into tonight's game.
The Royals are -108 favorites tonight behind Jeremy Guthrie (5-7, 4.10 ERA), who is 4-0 with a 3.51 ERA against the Tigers at Kauffman Stadium. He got rocked in his last start Saturday at Cleveland, where he gave up six runs off of 11 hits in four innings of work. However, prior to that stinker, he was on a nice roll, as the Royals had won four straight behind him, including 2-1 at Detroit, where he beat tonight's Tigers starter Drew Smyly (4-8, 3.89).
That June 18 meeting with the Royals was actually one of Smyly's better starts of the season. He matched a season-high seven innings pitched, allowing two runs off seven hits and walking none. In 14 starts this season, that was the only game where Smyly didn't walk anyone. Former Tiger Omar Infante hit a solo homer off him in the fifth-inning, which turned out to be the game winner.
While Guthrie was hit hard in his last start, Smyly has been slapped around pretty good himself over his last two. On Friday, the Rays got five runs off him in 5 1/3 innings, and in his prior start, at Houston on June 29, he lasted only 2 1/3 innings, giving up eight hits and for runs.
On the season, Smyly has been one of the better pitchers for bettors to pick against. The Tigers are 4-10 behind him this season for -9.7 units, the fourth worst return-on-investment figure in all of baseball.
The Tigers are clearly the better team overall, but every fifth day behind Smyly, they are less than average, and this happens to be one of those days. Let's lay the short price with the Royals.
Why mess with Kershaw?
When looking at the Dodgers approaching -300 on the oddsboard against the Padres tonight, the first instinct for most is to make a case for the underdog, since you can get paid off like a two-team parlay for the price of one bet.
Is there value with the worst-hitting (.216) and lowest-scoring (3 runs per game) club in baseball against a pitcher who hasn't allowed a run in 36 straight innings? Those types of numbers sure don't sound enticing to side with the underdog, especially since Clayton Kershaw is riding a seven-game winning streak.
In his last outing against the Padres in September, he won 4-0, allowing only three hits and striking out 10 in seven innings. However, he lost all three previous starts against the Padres last season, two of which were at Dodger Stadium.
You know you're not going to get much support out of the Padres' bats tonight, but what about their starter, 27-year-old Cuban right-hander Odrisamer Despaigne (2-0, 0.92)? He's only allowed two earned runs combined in his three starts this season.
As crazy as it might sound, there actually is some value going against Kershaw and siding with the light-hitting Padres tonight at +250 and also on UNDER the posted total of 6 runs.
Thursday selections:
Royals (Guthrie) -108 vs Tigers, 8:10 p.m. ET
Angels (Santiago) -125 at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
Padres (Despaigne) +250 at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Padres/Dodgers UNDER 6 (-110),
Pirates (Volquez) +110 at Cardinals, 7:15 p.m. ET