SPORTSWAGERS
MLB
Milwaukee @ MINNESOTA
Milwaukee/MINNESOTA over 8½ -114
(Risking 2.28 units - To Win: 2.00)
Wily Peralta has a 2.73 ERA after 11 starts and because of that low ERA we get a very beatable number here. Peralta’s in for some serious ERA regression and now is the time to take advantage before the market catches up. Peralta does not have a varied pitch mix. He’s a two pitch pitcher with a fastball and slider. Two-pitch pitchers rarely have long-term success at this level. Hitters have a 50% chance of “guessing” correctly and probably a 75% chance when he’s behind in the count. Peralta’s low ERA is a direct result of an unsustainable 84% strand rate, which is the highest among all starters in the majors with eight starts or more. It doesn’t take long for major league hitters to figure out ordinary pitchers and Peralta is as ordinary as they come. It’s only a matter of time before those stranded runners start crossing the plate and these hot-hitting Twins, with 10 hits or more in six of their last seven games are very likely going to cash in a bunch of them.
Then there’s Kevin Correia. Correia is 1-4 at Target Field with an ERA of 7.09. He also comes into this start with a 1.54 WHIP and a home oppBA of .312. He is consistent though, as his oppBA on the road is .313. In 33 innings at Target Field, Correia has struck out 13 batters. His swing and miss rate at home is 3%, which is the lowest in the majors of any pitcher with one start or more. If there was a live GM draft with 150 starters (five on each team x 30 teams), thrown into a pool, Kevin Correia would be chosen 150th by all 30 GM’s. If he throws a good game it’s pure luck because this stiff is nothing but batting practice out there and it would come as no surprise if the Brew Crew went over this number on their own.
Toronto @ DETROIT
Toronto +132 over DETROIT
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.64)
1:05 PM EST. With J.A. Happ going and with Edwin Encarnacion likely sitting this one out, the assignment today for the Blue Jays may seem like a difficult one. Happ comes in with a 4.10 ERA and a fly-ball bias profile so there is a strong chance of him getting roughed up a bit. However, we once again point out that the Blue Jays are playing too good to ignore as a dog, especially in this price range. Toronto is absolutely on fire while the Tigers have just four wins in their past 16 games. Even if Happ and the Jays pen, which is much stronger than the Tigers pen, gives up four or more, the Jays offense is capable of doing the same to Justin Verlander and Detroit’s volatile bullpen.
Two months into the 2014 season, the Justin Verlander we once knew has yet to make an appearance. After 12 starts and 79 innings pitched, Verlander sports a 3.99 ERA, a 57/31 K/BB split and he has looked more like a run-of-the-mill starter than a former Cy Young award winner. It’s not a case of bad luck or just one of those slow starts that several pitchers have every year either. Verlander’s strikeout rate decline stands out immediately and is likely correlated to diminished velocity. According to PITCHf/x, his average 93.1 MPH fastball is the lowest of his career and actually marks the fifth straight season of velocity loss. A lack of a dominant heater has forced him to paint the corners more and thus far he's failing to do so by walking nearly four batters a game. Hit % and strand % cancel each other out so his bloated xERA of 4.63 is a product of both poor skills and an abnormally low hr/f%. Things actually could get worse for Verlander before they get better. At age 31 with more than 1800 IP on his arm, we may in fact be looking at Verlander's new normal and signs of a rebound do not exist. Verlander’s swing and miss rate has been on a steady decline all season. Without his typical 95-98 MPH fastball to fall back on, Verlander has far less room for error and it seems he's having trouble adjusting. Counting him out would be a mistake, but xERA casts an ominous shadow over the potential for an imminent return to form. Verlander is priced like an ace but he’s not close to pitching like one and we’ll look to take advantage.
Miami @ TAMPA BAY
Miami +140 over TAMPA BAY
(Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
4:10 PM EST. In 33 home games, the Rays have 11 wins. Against Randy Wolf in the opener of this series the Rays scored one run. Tampa got lucky last night with a couple of home-runs, a real rarity for them, but still lost 5-4 to run their losing streak to nine games. Prior to last night they had gone six straight games scoring two runs or less. Now Wil Myers is on the DL to add to their misery. The Rays are last in the AL East and they’re 13 games behind the Blue Jays. In other words, it’s early June and the Rays are out of it. Jake Odorizzi has great potential, as evidenced by his solid 11% swing and miss rate and his 63 K’s in 53 innings. However, Odorizzi walks too many batters, which has led to an unacceptable 1.54 WHIP and 5.13 ERA. He is constantly behind in the count and it’s also worth noting that his batted ball groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is weak at 36%/24%/40%.
Against David Price, Chris Archer and Alex Cobb, arguably the best top three starters on the same team in the majors, the Marlins strung together some hits and ended up winning all three. Now Jacob Turner gets his turn to try and dominate a lineup that is pressing hard and missing everything. Turner has quietly put together a solid string of five starts in May covering 28 innings. Over that span, Turner has an elite 55% groundball rate, a swinging strike rate of 14% and an xERA of 3.68. Turner is looking like a former first-round pick that was a key to the Anibal Sanchez trade two summers ago. An unlucky 35% hit rate in May has kept his ERA above 4.00 but all the signs are there of him taking a big leap the rest of the way. At age 23 with 1st-round pedigree, Turner should be on your watch list because he’s so close to being extremely relevant and we‘ll put that to the test here. Big overlay.
