Fantasy SPORTS GAMETIME NBA
100* Play Boston (+5.5) over Los Angeles (NBA TOP PLAY)
Game starts at 9:00 PM EST
Los Angeles has lost 3 of the last 4 games against the spread and they have also
lost 6 of the last 9 games against the spread when playing 5 or less games in 14
days. Los Angeles has lost 9 of the last 11 games vs. Boston against the spread
and they are allowing an average of 109 points a game on defense over the last 5
games.
100* Play Boston (+5.5) over Los Angeles (NBA TOP PLAY)
Game starts at 9:00 PM EST
Los Angeles has lost 3 of the last 4 games against the spread and they have also
lost 6 of the last 9 games against the spread when playing 5 or less games in 14
days. Los Angeles has lost 9 of the last 11 games vs. Boston against the spread
and they are allowing an average of 109 points a game on defense over the last 5
games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington –1 +1.10 over HOUSTON
Note the 2:00 PM EST start. We could lay 1½-runs and take back 40 cents but by laying a run we can’t lose should the Nats pull this one out. The Astros have scored 13 runs over the past two games and they have to be feeling good but they’re likely going to have to score a bunch more to pull this one out. Brian Moehler replaced injured Bud Norris in the starting rotation last week, and replaced him poorly at Cinci, getting just eight outs while allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits and three bombs. His last appearance as a reliever was also a disaster, as he allowed three earned runs but never recorded an out. He has allowed more walks than strikeouts this year and he virtually has no shot of success. Moehler has a WHIP of 1.86, and ERA of 7.29 and a BAA of 3.64 and it’s not just a “bad run” either. Moehler is a 38-year-old, 13-year vet that has been brutally awful for eight years now. so yeah, he is on a bad run, an eight year bad run and counting. Last season he allowed 187 hits in 154 IP. J.D. Martin made his 2010 MLB debut at San Diego last week and pitched six innings and gave up just one run while striking out five batters and walking none. Pitching in San Diego is not a reliable indicator of anything but this is not about backing Martin. It’s all about playing against Moehler. Play: Washington –1 +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +2.19 over FLORIDA
The Brewers are very worthy of a wager here with a tag like this on them. First, the Brew Crew can score and a team that can score is a team that can win. Milwaukee is in the top three in many key offensive stats that include homeruns, runs scored, doubles and slugging percentage. Chris Capuano will pitch in his first game in the majors since 2007. Two Tommy John surgeries has kept Capuano out of baseball and he replaces Manny Parra in the starting rotation for now. In four rehab starts at AAA-Nashville, Capuano recorded 16 Ks and just four walks in 25 innings. He allowed just 21 hits in 25 frames and his ERA in was 1.81. Capuano is a former 18-game winner and his return will have his teammates a little extra juiced to give him some support. We’re starting to see pitchers that come back from TJ surgery stronger and better than ever. There’s a good reason the Fish are favored by so much and it’s because of Josh Johnson. Johnson is in the midst of an outstanding season and has put together great game after great game. Thing is, Johnson is coming off a 121-pitch effort against Philly, he’s not allowed a run in three games and no pitcher can continue at that rate. A letdown game is forthcoming soon and this price influences the choice. Play: Milwaukee +2.19 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.26 over LOS ANGELES
It’s never a bad idea to play on a hot team and the Braves are sizzling right now. They’re getting clutch hits, they’re scoring runs and they just swept the Phillies. In other words, they’re feeling it and can’t wait to get back to the park. Kris Medlen throws strikes and doesn’t walk many at all. He’s walked just nine batters in 41 IP while striking out 32. He’s a reliever that’s filling in for Jair Jurrjens and that’s always risky but this one is more about playing on the red-hot Braves than it is in backing Medlen. Still, his numbers are good and the Dodgers are seeing BB’s right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 1-0 wins over the D-Backs. Scoring two runs in two games against that staff should be a concern for any offense. Over it’s last nine games (.192 team batting average) the Dodgers have been shutout twice by the Cubs and been held to one run twice by the Snakes. They’ve scored two runs over the past 24 innings. Hiroki Kuroda doesn't have overpowering stuff but does have a good ground ball rate. He allows hits and he allows runs and that bodes well here for the Braves who have scored 51 times over the past eight games. Without doubt, the value here is on the visitor. Play: Atlanta +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.62 over L.A. LAKERS
For the reasons listed below in the game one write-up, we’re playing the Celtics in the series. Play Boston +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +2.01/+5½ over L.A. LAKERS
The first thing to note here is that the Celtics have come out strong in every series thus far and it’s not like they were playing a low seed. They beat the Heat with relative ease in game one and went on to blow away Miami. They then went on the road to Cleveland and Orlando in the next two series and won both of those games. They Celtics have smoked two what were considered serious threats to win it all and Miami is dangerous because of D-Wade. Nobody has been able to stop them and that’s because this team is so experienced and have made all the right adjustments on guys like LeBron James and Dwight Howard. It’s also interesting to hear what Phil Jackson had to say about the Celtics beating the Magic. Said Jackson, “ They hacked Howard all series and seldom was a foul called. We’re not that type of team, we’re not a smack’em down club; it’s not our style”. Before the series even starts, Jackson is already playing mind games and has put notice to the refs with that statement. Phil Jackson does not do that unless he has concerns and a ton of respect for the opposition. He didn’t say a word before the Jazz series but he did utter some comments before the series with the Thunder. In other words, he had no respect for the Jazz but he has lots of things to worry about against the Celtics. The Lakers lack depth and they lack a true point-guard. The Celtics lack nothing. They’re so deep, they have great shooters and you can’t focus on one guy because any one of five or six guys can hurt them. The Lakers strategy is one that is not rocket science. If Kobe isn’t hitting then they’ll dish it off to Gasol inside. The Lakers only advantage here is home court and size and that’s something for sure. However, the C’s are too good to ignore and one has to trust that they’ll win one of the first two games. If they lose here we’ll come right back on them in game 2. Play: Boston +2.01 (Risking 1 unit). Play Boston +5½ (Risking 1.04 units to win 1).
Washington –1 +1.10 over HOUSTON
Note the 2:00 PM EST start. We could lay 1½-runs and take back 40 cents but by laying a run we can’t lose should the Nats pull this one out. The Astros have scored 13 runs over the past two games and they have to be feeling good but they’re likely going to have to score a bunch more to pull this one out. Brian Moehler replaced injured Bud Norris in the starting rotation last week, and replaced him poorly at Cinci, getting just eight outs while allowing eight earned runs on 10 hits and three bombs. His last appearance as a reliever was also a disaster, as he allowed three earned runs but never recorded an out. He has allowed more walks than strikeouts this year and he virtually has no shot of success. Moehler has a WHIP of 1.86, and ERA of 7.29 and a BAA of 3.64 and it’s not just a “bad run” either. Moehler is a 38-year-old, 13-year vet that has been brutally awful for eight years now. so yeah, he is on a bad run, an eight year bad run and counting. Last season he allowed 187 hits in 154 IP. J.D. Martin made his 2010 MLB debut at San Diego last week and pitched six innings and gave up just one run while striking out five batters and walking none. Pitching in San Diego is not a reliable indicator of anything but this is not about backing Martin. It’s all about playing against Moehler. Play: Washington –1 +1.10 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +2.19 over FLORIDA
The Brewers are very worthy of a wager here with a tag like this on them. First, the Brew Crew can score and a team that can score is a team that can win. Milwaukee is in the top three in many key offensive stats that include homeruns, runs scored, doubles and slugging percentage. Chris Capuano will pitch in his first game in the majors since 2007. Two Tommy John surgeries has kept Capuano out of baseball and he replaces Manny Parra in the starting rotation for now. In four rehab starts at AAA-Nashville, Capuano recorded 16 Ks and just four walks in 25 innings. He allowed just 21 hits in 25 frames and his ERA in was 1.81. Capuano is a former 18-game winner and his return will have his teammates a little extra juiced to give him some support. We’re starting to see pitchers that come back from TJ surgery stronger and better than ever. There’s a good reason the Fish are favored by so much and it’s because of Josh Johnson. Johnson is in the midst of an outstanding season and has put together great game after great game. Thing is, Johnson is coming off a 121-pitch effort against Philly, he’s not allowed a run in three games and no pitcher can continue at that rate. A letdown game is forthcoming soon and this price influences the choice. Play: Milwaukee +2.19 (Risking 2 units).
Atlanta +1.26 over LOS ANGELES
It’s never a bad idea to play on a hot team and the Braves are sizzling right now. They’re getting clutch hits, they’re scoring runs and they just swept the Phillies. In other words, they’re feeling it and can’t wait to get back to the park. Kris Medlen throws strikes and doesn’t walk many at all. He’s walked just nine batters in 41 IP while striking out 32. He’s a reliever that’s filling in for Jair Jurrjens and that’s always risky but this one is more about playing on the red-hot Braves than it is in backing Medlen. Still, his numbers are good and the Dodgers are seeing BB’s right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 1-0 wins over the D-Backs. Scoring two runs in two games against that staff should be a concern for any offense. Over it’s last nine games (.192 team batting average) the Dodgers have been shutout twice by the Cubs and been held to one run twice by the Snakes. They’ve scored two runs over the past 24 innings. Hiroki Kuroda doesn't have overpowering stuff but does have a good ground ball rate. He allows hits and he allows runs and that bodes well here for the Braves who have scored 51 times over the past eight games. Without doubt, the value here is on the visitor. Play: Atlanta +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +1.62 over L.A. LAKERS
For the reasons listed below in the game one write-up, we’re playing the Celtics in the series. Play Boston +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
Boston +2.01/+5½ over L.A. LAKERS
The first thing to note here is that the Celtics have come out strong in every series thus far and it’s not like they were playing a low seed. They beat the Heat with relative ease in game one and went on to blow away Miami. They then went on the road to Cleveland and Orlando in the next two series and won both of those games. They Celtics have smoked two what were considered serious threats to win it all and Miami is dangerous because of D-Wade. Nobody has been able to stop them and that’s because this team is so experienced and have made all the right adjustments on guys like LeBron James and Dwight Howard. It’s also interesting to hear what Phil Jackson had to say about the Celtics beating the Magic. Said Jackson, “ They hacked Howard all series and seldom was a foul called. We’re not that type of team, we’re not a smack’em down club; it’s not our style”. Before the series even starts, Jackson is already playing mind games and has put notice to the refs with that statement. Phil Jackson does not do that unless he has concerns and a ton of respect for the opposition. He didn’t say a word before the Jazz series but he did utter some comments before the series with the Thunder. In other words, he had no respect for the Jazz but he has lots of things to worry about against the Celtics. The Lakers lack depth and they lack a true point-guard. The Celtics lack nothing. They’re so deep, they have great shooters and you can’t focus on one guy because any one of five or six guys can hurt them. The Lakers strategy is one that is not rocket science. If Kobe isn’t hitting then they’ll dish it off to Gasol inside. The Lakers only advantage here is home court and size and that’s something for sure. However, the C’s are too good to ignore and one has to trust that they’ll win one of the first two games. If they lose here we’ll come right back on them in game 2. Play: Boston +2.01 (Risking 1 unit). Play Boston +5½ (Risking 1.04 units to win 1).
JOHNNY GUILD
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 9:00 PM EST.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers (69-29) vs. (4) Boston Celtics (62-37)
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
This should be a great series. Kobe and company will want to start out quick scoring and take the lead, but the Celtics aggressive physical defense will make it a difficult task. Look for the Celtics to play aggressive defense making every bucket a laborious task for the Lakers.
The Lakers are home and Kobe Bryant won't be stopped, but take the Celtics to keep it close. To boot, Boston has a big advantage with their bench play.
Boston Celtics +5.5
Under -191½
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 9:00 PM EST.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers (69-29) vs. (4) Boston Celtics (62-37)
Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
This should be a great series. Kobe and company will want to start out quick scoring and take the lead, but the Celtics aggressive physical defense will make it a difficult task. Look for the Celtics to play aggressive defense making every bucket a laborious task for the Lakers.
The Lakers are home and Kobe Bryant won't be stopped, but take the Celtics to keep it close. To boot, Boston has a big advantage with their bench play.
Boston Celtics +5.5
Under -191½
GINA
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 10:10 p.m. est.
Atlanta Braves (31-22) at Los Angeles Dodgers (31-22)
(R) Kris Medlen (2-1) vs. (R) Hiroki Kuroda (5-3)
Atlanta has won eight straight games overall and is 7-2 in its last 9 on the road Go with the hot Braves. The Dodgers are 2-4 in their last 6 meetings versus Atlanta, just 2-4 in its last 6 at Dodger Stadium.
Atlanta's right-hander Kris Medlen is 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts. Medlen will make his first career start against the Dodgers, but has made four career appearances against them, with a record of 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA over 7 2/3 innings.
Los Angeles' right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts and is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two career starts against the Braves
Atlanta Braves +120
Game One - (1) Los Angeles Lakers (69-29) vs. (4) Boston Celtics (62-37)
The Lakers have played outstanding at home this postseason, but the Celtics have been a superb road team. Take the points! The Celtics are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Lakers, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Los Angeles. They split their two regular season meetings with the road team winning each contest.
Boston Celtics +5½
Thursday, June 3rd, 2010 10:10 p.m. est.
Atlanta Braves (31-22) at Los Angeles Dodgers (31-22)
(R) Kris Medlen (2-1) vs. (R) Hiroki Kuroda (5-3)
Atlanta has won eight straight games overall and is 7-2 in its last 9 on the road Go with the hot Braves. The Dodgers are 2-4 in their last 6 meetings versus Atlanta, just 2-4 in its last 6 at Dodger Stadium.
Atlanta's right-hander Kris Medlen is 1-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last three starts. Medlen will make his first career start against the Dodgers, but has made four career appearances against them, with a record of 1-0 with a 2.35 ERA over 7 2/3 innings.
Los Angeles' right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA in his last three starts and is 1-1 with a 1.20 ERA in two career starts against the Braves
Atlanta Braves +120
Game One - (1) Los Angeles Lakers (69-29) vs. (4) Boston Celtics (62-37)
The Lakers have played outstanding at home this postseason, but the Celtics have been a superb road team. Take the points! The Celtics are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Lakers, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Los Angeles. They split their two regular season meetings with the road team winning each contest.
Boston Celtics +5½
BIG AL McMORDIE
100% ATS (by 18.3 ppg) NBA TOTALS WINNER!
Game Date/Time: 6/3/10 9:05 pm
Our Selection: Lakers/Celtics 'under' Line: 192
Analysis: At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Lakers and Celtics 'under' the total. The first games of NBA Finals tend to go 'under' the total (68.4% last 19 years; 100% last six). And not just by a scant margin, either, but by a WHOLE LOT! Consider that each of the last six NBA Finals have started out with a very low-scoring game. In 2004, the Lakers lost 87-75 to Detroit and the total was 171 (so it stayed under by 9 points). In 2005, the Spurs bested the Pistons 84-69 and that was 22.5 points under the 175.5 number. In 2006, the Mavs won 90-80 over Miami, falling 24 points under the total of 194. Then, in 2007, the Spurs beat LeBron James & Co. 85-76, when the total was 18.5 points higher at 179.5. The Celts and Lakers met two years ago, and Boston defeated L.A. 98-88, which was 5.5 points less than the 191.5 number. Finally, last year's opening game between Orlando and the Lakers generated just 175 points (L.A. won 100-75), and that was a whopping 30.5 points below the over/under of 205.5). Thus, the average Game 1 over the past six seasons has yielded scores 18.3 ppg below the posted Total. Look for another low-scoring game here, as each meeting between the Celts and Lakers was low-scoring this year (falling 15 and 16 points below the respective totals), and the Lakers are also 15-3 'under' as home favorites of -6 points or less. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my red-hot baseball plays, as we're 41 games over .500 (118-77-5), and are on an 11-1 run as well (thru Monday's action).
BIG AL McMORDIE
FAMOUS MLB ROADKILL CRUSHER (15-4 RUN)!
Game Date/Time: 6/3/10 10:10 pm
Our Selection: Dodgers Opponent: Braves Line: -135
Analysis: At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Braves righthander Kris Medlen has been a more-than-adequate fill-in while Jair Jurrjens continues to recover from a hamstring injury and it's likely that Medlen will continue in his starting role throughout most, if not all of, the month of June as Jurrjens' recovery has been slow. But Atlanta needs to be careful with Medlen, who is starting to show signs of being over-used. After all, as a reliever, Medlen has been used to throwing generally less than 40 pitches per outing, but in his last three trips to the hill as a starter, he's averaged over 90 pitches and his baserunners allowed has increased in his last two starts (16 hits and four walks in less than 12 innings). Los Angeles righthander Hiroki Kuroda has struggled a bit lately, going 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts but most of that was due to his last outing, which was unfortunately in Colorado, and is still a tough place for pitchers, humidor or not. Take away that outing and Kuroda has quality starts in five of his last six and you certainly can't ignore the fact that he continues to be extremely valuable to his Los Angeles ball club that's won seven of his 10 starts this season. MLB Roadkill on the Dodgers.
100% ATS (by 18.3 ppg) NBA TOTALS WINNER!
Game Date/Time: 6/3/10 9:05 pm
Our Selection: Lakers/Celtics 'under' Line: 192
Analysis: At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Lakers and Celtics 'under' the total. The first games of NBA Finals tend to go 'under' the total (68.4% last 19 years; 100% last six). And not just by a scant margin, either, but by a WHOLE LOT! Consider that each of the last six NBA Finals have started out with a very low-scoring game. In 2004, the Lakers lost 87-75 to Detroit and the total was 171 (so it stayed under by 9 points). In 2005, the Spurs bested the Pistons 84-69 and that was 22.5 points under the 175.5 number. In 2006, the Mavs won 90-80 over Miami, falling 24 points under the total of 194. Then, in 2007, the Spurs beat LeBron James & Co. 85-76, when the total was 18.5 points higher at 179.5. The Celts and Lakers met two years ago, and Boston defeated L.A. 98-88, which was 5.5 points less than the 191.5 number. Finally, last year's opening game between Orlando and the Lakers generated just 175 points (L.A. won 100-75), and that was a whopping 30.5 points below the over/under of 205.5). Thus, the average Game 1 over the past six seasons has yielded scores 18.3 ppg below the posted Total. Look for another low-scoring game here, as each meeting between the Celts and Lakers was low-scoring this year (falling 15 and 16 points below the respective totals), and the Lakers are also 15-3 'under' as home favorites of -6 points or less. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my red-hot baseball plays, as we're 41 games over .500 (118-77-5), and are on an 11-1 run as well (thru Monday's action).
BIG AL McMORDIE
FAMOUS MLB ROADKILL CRUSHER (15-4 RUN)!
Game Date/Time: 6/3/10 10:10 pm
Our Selection: Dodgers Opponent: Braves Line: -135
Analysis: At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Atlanta Braves. Braves righthander Kris Medlen has been a more-than-adequate fill-in while Jair Jurrjens continues to recover from a hamstring injury and it's likely that Medlen will continue in his starting role throughout most, if not all of, the month of June as Jurrjens' recovery has been slow. But Atlanta needs to be careful with Medlen, who is starting to show signs of being over-used. After all, as a reliever, Medlen has been used to throwing generally less than 40 pitches per outing, but in his last three trips to the hill as a starter, he's averaged over 90 pitches and his baserunners allowed has increased in his last two starts (16 hits and four walks in less than 12 innings). Los Angeles righthander Hiroki Kuroda has struggled a bit lately, going 1-2 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in his last three starts but most of that was due to his last outing, which was unfortunately in Colorado, and is still a tough place for pitchers, humidor or not. Take away that outing and Kuroda has quality starts in five of his last six and you certainly can't ignore the fact that he continues to be extremely valuable to his Los Angeles ball club that's won seven of his 10 starts this season. MLB Roadkill on the Dodgers.
