COMPS:
JEFF BENTON COMP
Now for Thursday’s baseball freebie, following comp winners the last two days on the Nationals and DBacks, we’ll back Arizona for a second straight day as it goes for the three-game sweep in Kansas City.
The Snakes have taken the first two games of this interleague matchup by scores of 7-2 and 3-2, giving them five straight road wins (part of a 7-4 overall run). Since May 14, Arizona is 26-12, including 14-4 on the highway. Conversely, Kansas City has lost four in a row and six of seven. And going back to May 13, the Royals are 11-26, including 5-14 at home (losing eight of 10 at Kaufmann Stadium)
In other words, these teams are heading in totally opposite directions!
If that’s not enough to love Arizona, consider that the DBacks are sending red-hot right-hander Daniel Hudson to the mound. Hudson is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just three earned runs, 14 hits and five walks with 19 strikeouts in 22 innings. Arizona is 9-2 in Hudson’s last 11 starts, including 6-1 in the last seven.
Finally, while the DBacks have won seven of nine interleague games and 18 of 26 as a favorite (7-1 last eight as a road favorite), Kansas City has dropped five of six as an underdog and nine of 12 as a home pup. Arizona is also now 6-1 in its last seven games in K.C.
3? ARIZONA (LISTING PITCHERS)
CHUCK O'BRIEN COMP
Moving on to today’s complimentary baseball selection – and FYI, I’m on a 10-6 roll with my free picks – go ahead and play the UNDER in this afternoon’s Mariners-Nationals series finale.
I scored a 60 Dime winner on the UNDER in last night’s Nationals-Mariners game (2-1 final score), and I see another low-scoring affair today as Seattle rookie Michael Pineda (7-4, 2.64 ERA) opposes the Nats’ Jason Marquis (7-2, 3.86).
Pineda has given up three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, and if you eliminate his one bad outing in this stretch (six runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings of an 8-1 loss at Detroit), Pineda has a 2.00 ERA in his other seven starts over this span. Marquis, meanwhile, is in the midst of a resurgent season, and he’s been great at home (4-0 with a 2.62 ERA in five starts. Also, Marquis has a 2.46 ERA in three career starts against Seattle.
Both these pitchers have been better in day games (Pineda is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA; Marquis is 3-1 with a 3.41 ERA) than night games (Pineda is 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA; Marquis is 4-1 with a 4.20 ERA). Finally, the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these teams going back to 2003, while Seattle is on UNDER runs of 6-1 overall, 14-4-1 in interleague play and 4-1-1 with Pineda on the mound, and the UNDER is 9-3 in Washington’s last 12 interleague home games.
3? UNDER (LISTING PITCHERS)
DOM CHAMBERS COMP
Taking the Nationals in this matinee clash, as they have a chance to do something they haven't done this late in the campaign for nearly six years - move above the .500 mark.
But at 37-37,and riding a 10-1 win streak into this series finale that finds a West coast team having to prepare at roughly 7 a.m. in their minds, for a 10 a.m. start West coast time, I like the Nationals to handle this.
Though Washington starter Jason Marquis has struggled in Interleague play - he is 4-6 with a 7.76 ERA in his last 15 starts against American League opponents and 0-1 with an 11.37 ERA in his last three - I think he'll be up for the challenge today, knowing what's at stake.
He'll also be out to avenge last Friday's outing versus Baltimore, in which he allowed a season-high 12 hits and four runs to Baltimoreover 5-1/3 innings. Prior to that he was 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three previous starts.
He's in for a battle against rookie Michael Pineda, who is facing an uphill climb for the Mariners, who have lost eight in a row in this series and are 0-5 all-time in Washington.
List both and play the Nationals.
3? WASHINGTON (LISTING MARQUIS AND PINEDA)
DEREK MANCINI COMP
My clients also know to pay strict attention to my Bonus Plays, as my 12-2 roll with comp picks is no aberration! Got you another winner with the Tribe last night, and for tonight's selection I'm siding with the Mariners to avoid the 3-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals.
The first thing that stands out about this game is the line. Oddsmakers are begging for Nationals money here, which makes little sense given the way they've played of late. Why would they give you a little plus money to go along with a team that's won 10 of 11 and starting a pitcher who's posted a 2.70 ERA over his L3 starts?
Moreover, I'm expecting a big start from rookie hurler Michael Pineda, who got back on track nicely following an awful start against the Tigers. He held the Phillies to 1 run on 2 hits over 6 innings (took a no-hitter into the 6th) for the win last Friday, and anything like that effort tonight will be more than enough. He's also been superb in day games, going 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA this season.
Neither offense is particularly potent here, but the Mariners are going to have their chances against Marquis, who has struggled in interleague play going 4-6 with a 7.76 ERA in his L15 starts agaisnt A.L. clubs. Throw in a little of the avoid the sweep angle, and I believe we're going to see a razor sharp effort from the M's this afternoon (and the line is telling us as much). Seattle with Pineda over Washington and Marquis.
3? SEATTLE
CHRIS JORDAN COMP
Right-hander Roy Oswalt is on the hill to face Chris Carpenter. And normally both these names are in Cy Young talks, but Oswalt is 4-5 and Carpenter is 1-7.
And I'm not sure whether or not I'm taking Oswalt because of his familiarity with the Cardinals from his days with Houston, or because Carpenter hasn’t earned a win since May 10, and opponents are hitting .288 against him.
Whatever the case, the Phillies are stroking the ball right now, and getting timely hitting, and I think they're going to be gung-ho about sweeping the Cards and moving on to the next seris.
Oswalt is due a decent outing, and I'll take his drop-and-drive delivery from over the top to manhandle this Cardinals' lineup that appears lost with Albert Pujols.
Oswalt builds his counts around two-and four-seam fastballs in the 90-to 95-mile per hour range, and though that's been tailed down to the lower 90s consistently right now, he moves his tailing two-seamer in and out and challenges hitters up with the four seamer with confidence. And right now is the right time to bully St. Louis hitters.
Watch tonight as he complements his fastball with that tightly-spun curveball he changes speeds on, or his quick, late-biting slider with tilt.
He also sports an effective change he's not afraid to throw on full counts, and again, with as vulnerable as the Cardinals' hitters are right now, I can't imagine them getting to Oswalt tonight.
Play the Phils.
2? PHILLIES (OSWALT OVER CARPENTER)
SCOTT DELANEY COMP
At first glance, the Philadelphia-St. Louis game seems like a trap. Only problem is, there's really no telling which side is the trap.
Is it the red-hot Phillies who could be due for a loss, or is it the Cardinals with struggling ace Chris Carpenter toeing the slab?
Well, I personally believe Carpenter is a trap as the slight favorite, and that Roy Oswalt is going to perform up to standards, following in the footsteps of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee the last two nights, to limit the listless Redbirds in this series finale.
Remember, Oswalt spent enough time with the Astros - in the National League Central - and has seen this Cardinals lineup aplenty. He's also seen it in a lot better shape.
St. Louis is dinged up, and minus Albert Pujols in the lineup, the Cardinals have appeared lost on offense the last two nights. That's a bonus for Oswalt, as Pujols' 26 hits against him are the most against any active hurler.
As a starter, the fiery right-hander is 9-7 with a 3.12 ERA against St. Louis. Nothing to write home about, but the trio of Halladay-Lee-Oswalt generally inspires one another, and the first two have already pitched gems in this series.
As for St. Louis' ace, well, Carpenter has been downright awful of late, going 0-5 since May 10. I know he's won three straight starts against the Phillies, but he's not been himself this season, as he rolls in with a 1-7 mark and 4.47 ERA. Last Friday he allowed five runs and 10 hits in a 5-4 loss to the lowly Royals. I can only imagine what the now-healthy Phillies' lineup is going to do to him.
List both and play the Phillies, as Oswalt completes the trifecta on the heels of Halladay and Lee's efforts.
5? PHILADELPHIA (LISTING OSWALT OVER CARPENTER)
Jack Clayton
Bonus Play
Sport: MLB
Game: Diamondbacks at Royals
Pick: Diamondbacks
Reason: The Diamondbacks are 17-8 in their last 25 games as a favorite and take on the slumping KC Royals, who are 3-7 in their last 10 Interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Play Arizona.
Golden contender
On Thursday the free MLB System Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Game 909 at 8:10 eastern. The Royals are in a negative system that plays against home dog off a home dog loss if they scored 2 or less runs on 10+ hits vs an opponent off a road favored win that scored 4 or less runs. This system has cashed 10 of the last 12 times. Arizona is 6-0 as a road favorite in this range and has won 6 of 8 vs the AL. KC has lost 6 of 8 vs the NL. D. Hudson makes the start for Arizona and he has been solid of late with a 1.23 era in his last 3 starts. Paulino has a 6 Era vs Arizona. The Diamondbacks also have a solid 3.11 road bullpen era. Look for them to complete the sweep vs a reeling KC Team.
Dave Cokin
Thursday Bonus Play is the Mets
