SportsWagers
NBA Playoffs - Game 3
BOSTON +5 -109 over Cleveland
The Cavaliers entered the 2015 NBA Playoffs as the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. So far the Cavaliers have lived up to the hype and jumped out to a commanding 2-0 lead against this young and feisty Celtics club. Without doubt, Cleveland is the team to beat in the East but the Celtics are not going to go quietly.
Despite the Cavs 99-91 victory in game two, the Celtics were in the game for the first half, trailing by just one point at the break. The difference was the third quarter where the Cavs outscored the Celts by six and the rest was history. Erase the third quarter from that equation and the Celtics could have won the game, as Cleveland won the fourth quarter by just one point as well. We are not trying to punch the statistics or offer formulated mathematical analysis but Boston has shown they can compete on a high level with any team. These two split the regular season series 2-2. One of the Cavs victories came by a single point. The C’s won nine of their last 10 regular season games overall, which including six straight to end the year. Give the Celtics an edge on the boards and their bench has clearly been stronger than Cleveland’s. In addition, Boston gets to work at home now with the support of their rabid fans behind them. Most importantly, however, is that the market loves these Cavaliers with Lebron James and for that you will pay a premium to wager on the Cavs.But with improved play every month since the season began, a strong finish to end the regular season and now two playoff games under their belt, this hard-nosed Celtics squad that plays excellent team basketball is high on our radar as a true value team. We’re calling the upset but will gladly accept the points.
Our Pick
BOSTON +5 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
NBA Playoffs - Game 3
BOSTON +5 -109 over Cleveland
The Cavaliers entered the 2015 NBA Playoffs as the favorites to win the Eastern Conference. So far the Cavaliers have lived up to the hype and jumped out to a commanding 2-0 lead against this young and feisty Celtics club. Without doubt, Cleveland is the team to beat in the East but the Celtics are not going to go quietly.
Despite the Cavs 99-91 victory in game two, the Celtics were in the game for the first half, trailing by just one point at the break. The difference was the third quarter where the Cavs outscored the Celts by six and the rest was history. Erase the third quarter from that equation and the Celtics could have won the game, as Cleveland won the fourth quarter by just one point as well. We are not trying to punch the statistics or offer formulated mathematical analysis but Boston has shown they can compete on a high level with any team. These two split the regular season series 2-2. One of the Cavs victories came by a single point. The C’s won nine of their last 10 regular season games overall, which including six straight to end the year. Give the Celtics an edge on the boards and their bench has clearly been stronger than Cleveland’s. In addition, Boston gets to work at home now with the support of their rabid fans behind them. Most importantly, however, is that the market loves these Cavaliers with Lebron James and for that you will pay a premium to wager on the Cavs.But with improved play every month since the season began, a strong finish to end the regular season and now two playoff games under their belt, this hard-nosed Celtics squad that plays excellent team basketball is high on our radar as a true value team. We’re calling the upset but will gladly accept the points.
Our Pick
BOSTON +5 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
We need Nover please! I only bet $10 a gamebut I will donate $5 to whoever buys!
So not my place to break down finances, however you bet $10 a game and are willing to contribute $5 to buy a pick?
I take it you aware if it wins you net $5 and if it loses you are down $16. Sports investing is tough enough...
Wilman, you beat me to the punch.
SportsWagers
Los Angeles @ SAN FRAN
Los Angeles -104 over SAN FRAN
3:45 PM EST. Mike Bolsinger didn’t begin the season in the LA rotation but the skills he posted with Arizona in 2014 suggest we shouldn't write him off as a starter who could provide some decent value. In that pitcher’s park in Arizona, Bolsinger’s skills included 8.3K’s/9, good control and a 52% groundball rate. This past spring he faced just 15 batters but only surrendered three hits and one earned run. Bolsinger's opponent quality in the spring was rated as 9.2 out of a possible 10 (that’s based on 1 being rookie ball players to 10 being full-time major league hitters). Bolsinger now makes his first start of the year in is new digs and he has a decent chance to do well. We can’t say the same thing about Ryan Vogelsong.
Vogelsong has appeared in three games this year with two of those being in relief. In 10 innings, Vogelsong has walked nine batters and struck out 10 but his awful 4% swing and miss rate does not support those 10 strikeouts. Vogelsong’s velocity, control, swing and miss rate, age, groundball % decline and line-drive rate increase all point to just how high a risk he is. A September big-time fade last year doesn’t provide much hope either. A steep ERA decline is in store for Vogelsong and we’re thrilled to get the Dodgers at this price against him.
$125,000 prize pool for a $2 entry on a 1-day Fantasy MLB contest. Select Mike Bolsinger on FanDuel.com for your chance to win a large cash prize for a small investment. Draft your team now.
Play:
Our Pick
Los Angeles -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
Chicago +108 over PITTSBURGH
12:35 PM EST. Jeff Locke emerged from seemingly nowhere, making the NL All-Star team in 2013 and helping the Bucs to the post season. An oblique injury shelved him early in 2014 but he subsequently went on to make 21 starts and post a 3.91 ERA. Not great but not bad either. In his first two years at this level, Locke posted ERA’s of 6.48 and 5.50 with xERA’s of 6.33 and 3.71 respectively. 2013 has stood out as his only consistent season in five years at this level although in ’11 and ’12 he threw just 17 and 34 innings respectively. Locke isn't the power arm that will seize headlines and pitching in Pittsburgh keeps him further under the radar. Locke is a pitcher to watch closely as a good value play when he’s a dog but in this case he is not. With a 2-0 record and a 1.93 ERA over his first two starts, one would think Locke and the Buccos would be a higher price today against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs. Thus, it would appear to us that the oddsmakers are welcoming all bets on Pittsburgh. Incidentally, both Locke’s starts this year came against Milwaukee, a team that is hitting .181 against southpaws (Locke is a lefty) and that has scored the second least amount of runs in the league.
Kyle Hendricks is 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA after two starts, which once again reveals just how misleading ERA’s and W/L records can be. A look under the hood reveals that Hendricks is pitching some damn good ball right now. In 10 innings, Hendricks has 11 K’s while issuing just one free pass. That elite control is supported by a 67% first-pitch strike rate. Hendriks’ outstanding pitching foundation also includes a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 53%/10%/37%. Hendricks high ERA is the direct result of an unfortunate strand rate of 45% and hit rate of 36%. This now turns into a solid buy-low opportunity on Hendricks.
Our Pick
Chicago +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
Atlanta +125 over N.Y. METS
1:10 PM EST. We’re usually not in favor of wagering against hot teams but one has to figure the Braves to be a little extra jacked up here for a couple of reasons. First, no team likes a record broken on their watch and the Mets can match their longest in history with a win here. Secondly, it wouldn’t look so good on these Braves if the Mets did tie their longest win streak of 11 games with a 42-year-old on the mound. Bartolo Colon’s M.O. is something like this: Here it is, see what you can do. Low swing and miss rate says hitters do *something*, but not enough to knock him out of the game but that could change at any time. Colon is 3-0 thus far with an ERA of 2.25. He has 18 K’s in 20 innings with just one walk. Either Colon is the smartest pitcher ever to take the hill and he’s outsmarting all these hitters and or he’s the luckiest pitcher ever because his under the hoods stats can’t comprehend this type of success. Pinpoint control helps Colon maintain decent ratios but there are red flags everywhere. Colon’s groundball rate is slowly trending down and with the fences being moved in at Citi Field this year, home runs could become more of an issue. He still throws his fastball over 80 percent of the time, and it's losing velocity. His average fastball in 2014 was 3 mph slower than in 2011, and it went down in each of the final three months of the season. This year, it’s down another tick to an average of 88.4. Becoming a control artist has helped Colon remain a serviceable option. However, he's not getting many swings and misses, as he relies very heavily on a fastball that is losing velocity. We have no idea why batters are missing his pitches but it cannot last and the only thing that Colon should be good for is eating innings (that’s not a fat joke). Dude cannot be favored over Julio Teheran.
There’s a lot to like about Teheran. In addition to his age (24), his mastery of LHB, stellar control, and just 5 disaster starts in the last 2 years all stick out. Teheran even flashed further upside with 9.1K’s/9 over a 17-start span before fading late. Current Mets have just 30 combined hits in 129 AB’s against Teheran for a combined BA of .229. Teheran has not been at his sharpest yet and even surrendered four jacks in his last game in Toronto. However, he was very sharp in two starts against two NL teams and has already defeated the Mets once this year. Teheran has quickly developed into a reliable pitcher at a young age and the underlying skills suggest he'll continue to be a solid producer with room to grow. As a dog against Colon, who is nearly twice his age, this is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we make no exception here.
Our Pick
Atlanta +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Los Angeles @ SAN FRAN
Los Angeles -104 over SAN FRAN
3:45 PM EST. Mike Bolsinger didn’t begin the season in the LA rotation but the skills he posted with Arizona in 2014 suggest we shouldn't write him off as a starter who could provide some decent value. In that pitcher’s park in Arizona, Bolsinger’s skills included 8.3K’s/9, good control and a 52% groundball rate. This past spring he faced just 15 batters but only surrendered three hits and one earned run. Bolsinger's opponent quality in the spring was rated as 9.2 out of a possible 10 (that’s based on 1 being rookie ball players to 10 being full-time major league hitters). Bolsinger now makes his first start of the year in is new digs and he has a decent chance to do well. We can’t say the same thing about Ryan Vogelsong.
Vogelsong has appeared in three games this year with two of those being in relief. In 10 innings, Vogelsong has walked nine batters and struck out 10 but his awful 4% swing and miss rate does not support those 10 strikeouts. Vogelsong’s velocity, control, swing and miss rate, age, groundball % decline and line-drive rate increase all point to just how high a risk he is. A September big-time fade last year doesn’t provide much hope either. A steep ERA decline is in store for Vogelsong and we’re thrilled to get the Dodgers at this price against him.
$125,000 prize pool for a $2 entry on a 1-day Fantasy MLB contest. Select Mike Bolsinger on FanDuel.com for your chance to win a large cash prize for a small investment. Draft your team now.
Play:
Our Pick
Los Angeles -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
Chicago +108 over PITTSBURGH
12:35 PM EST. Jeff Locke emerged from seemingly nowhere, making the NL All-Star team in 2013 and helping the Bucs to the post season. An oblique injury shelved him early in 2014 but he subsequently went on to make 21 starts and post a 3.91 ERA. Not great but not bad either. In his first two years at this level, Locke posted ERA’s of 6.48 and 5.50 with xERA’s of 6.33 and 3.71 respectively. 2013 has stood out as his only consistent season in five years at this level although in ’11 and ’12 he threw just 17 and 34 innings respectively. Locke isn't the power arm that will seize headlines and pitching in Pittsburgh keeps him further under the radar. Locke is a pitcher to watch closely as a good value play when he’s a dog but in this case he is not. With a 2-0 record and a 1.93 ERA over his first two starts, one would think Locke and the Buccos would be a higher price today against Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs. Thus, it would appear to us that the oddsmakers are welcoming all bets on Pittsburgh. Incidentally, both Locke’s starts this year came against Milwaukee, a team that is hitting .181 against southpaws (Locke is a lefty) and that has scored the second least amount of runs in the league.
Kyle Hendricks is 0-0 with a 6.10 ERA after two starts, which once again reveals just how misleading ERA’s and W/L records can be. A look under the hood reveals that Hendricks is pitching some damn good ball right now. In 10 innings, Hendricks has 11 K’s while issuing just one free pass. That elite control is supported by a 67% first-pitch strike rate. Hendriks’ outstanding pitching foundation also includes a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball split of 53%/10%/37%. Hendricks high ERA is the direct result of an unfortunate strand rate of 45% and hit rate of 36%. This now turns into a solid buy-low opportunity on Hendricks.
Our Pick
Chicago +108 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.16)
Atlanta @ N.Y. METS
Atlanta +125 over N.Y. METS
1:10 PM EST. We’re usually not in favor of wagering against hot teams but one has to figure the Braves to be a little extra jacked up here for a couple of reasons. First, no team likes a record broken on their watch and the Mets can match their longest in history with a win here. Secondly, it wouldn’t look so good on these Braves if the Mets did tie their longest win streak of 11 games with a 42-year-old on the mound. Bartolo Colon’s M.O. is something like this: Here it is, see what you can do. Low swing and miss rate says hitters do *something*, but not enough to knock him out of the game but that could change at any time. Colon is 3-0 thus far with an ERA of 2.25. He has 18 K’s in 20 innings with just one walk. Either Colon is the smartest pitcher ever to take the hill and he’s outsmarting all these hitters and or he’s the luckiest pitcher ever because his under the hoods stats can’t comprehend this type of success. Pinpoint control helps Colon maintain decent ratios but there are red flags everywhere. Colon’s groundball rate is slowly trending down and with the fences being moved in at Citi Field this year, home runs could become more of an issue. He still throws his fastball over 80 percent of the time, and it's losing velocity. His average fastball in 2014 was 3 mph slower than in 2011, and it went down in each of the final three months of the season. This year, it’s down another tick to an average of 88.4. Becoming a control artist has helped Colon remain a serviceable option. However, he's not getting many swings and misses, as he relies very heavily on a fastball that is losing velocity. We have no idea why batters are missing his pitches but it cannot last and the only thing that Colon should be good for is eating innings (that’s not a fat joke). Dude cannot be favored over Julio Teheran.
There’s a lot to like about Teheran. In addition to his age (24), his mastery of LHB, stellar control, and just 5 disaster starts in the last 2 years all stick out. Teheran even flashed further upside with 9.1K’s/9 over a 17-start span before fading late. Current Mets have just 30 combined hits in 129 AB’s against Teheran for a combined BA of .229. Teheran has not been at his sharpest yet and even surrendered four jacks in his last game in Toronto. However, he was very sharp in two starts against two NL teams and has already defeated the Mets once this year. Teheran has quickly developed into a reliable pitcher at a young age and the underlying skills suggest he'll continue to be a solid producer with room to grow. As a dog against Colon, who is nearly twice his age, this is a bet we would make 100% of the time and we make no exception here.
Our Pick
Atlanta +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
