For today on April 23 we have the following bet under my original MLB betting system:
Chicago White Sox {A} bet (this is a bet on the money line)
Remember to bet on the +1.5 run line if it is offered, or the money line if it is not offered.
Make sure to observe the following Exterminator system guideline:
In the month of April: Bet aggressively on all the qualifying bets under the original MLB system by risking an additional 5% on every wager you make. Risk a flat percentage of your bankroll for all your wagers under the Exterminator system.
Also, please keep in mind the following filters of the system:
- Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road
- Play is only official if the RPI value of our team is no more than .015 lower than opponent's.
- Play is only official if our team is not playing against a top 2 highest ranked RPI team
Note that the system plays are official only when they pass all the filters above. If they fail to pass any filter, then the play is considered unofficial.
Regards,
Tony Chau, author of the best-selling Exterminator Betting System
Chicago White Sox {A} bet (this is a bet on the money line)
Remember to bet on the +1.5 run line if it is offered, or the money line if it is not offered.
Make sure to observe the following Exterminator system guideline:
In the month of April: Bet aggressively on all the qualifying bets under the original MLB system by risking an additional 5% on every wager you make. Risk a flat percentage of your bankroll for all your wagers under the Exterminator system.
Also, please keep in mind the following filters of the system:
- Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road
- Play is only official if the RPI value of our team is no more than .015 lower than opponent's.
- Play is only official if our team is not playing against a top 2 highest ranked RPI team
Note that the system plays are official only when they pass all the filters above. If they fail to pass any filter, then the play is considered unofficial.
Regards,
Tony Chau, author of the best-selling Exterminator Betting System
SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS (24-8 last 32 Plays)
Bonus Play: Chicago -3 vs Milwaukee
MLB Service Plays
Miami RL -1.5 +135 vs Philadelphia
LA Dodgers RL -1.5 +150 vs San Francisco
Baltimore +105 vs Toronto
NBA Service Plays
Cleveland -4.5 vs Boston
NHL Service Plays
Tampa Bay vs Detroit Over 5 @ -130
Bonus Play: Chicago -3 vs Milwaukee
MLB Service Plays
Miami RL -1.5 +135 vs Philadelphia
LA Dodgers RL -1.5 +150 vs San Francisco
Baltimore +105 vs Toronto
NBA Service Plays
Cleveland -4.5 vs Boston
NHL Service Plays
Tampa Bay vs Detroit Over 5 @ -130
VegasButcher - MLB 16 – 14 for +0.11 Units
Chicago Cubs -104
No McCutchen in the lineup for the Pirates today which is a big loss for Pittsburgh of course. In addition their best reliever so far this year, Tony Watson pitched 2 innings yesterday (30 pitches) and 3 of the last 4 days. I don’t see him being available in this early game either. Starting pitching is a wash but Cubs have an advantage offensively and with their BP in this matchup. I expect them to bounce back.
Miami Marlins -113
Have you looked at Phillies’ lineup today? They are without Howard, Utley, or Ruiz. This is a team that ranks 29th offensively so far and 30th against righties, and they’ll be even worse than that in today’s matchup. Neither pitcher is anything special but Phelps at least is coming off a start on 04/17. McGowan has worked primarily in the BP with his last appearance being 4-days ago. Phillies’ BP has a 2.5 ERA but their 4.2 SIERA is the 29th worst mark in the league, indicating to me that this group isn’t as good as their ERA indicates. Plus both Garcia and Giles have pitched in two straight games so their availability is in question today. This is a very winnable game for Miami.
New York Mets -128
Sometimes when you’re hot, you’re ‘hot’, and there isn’t a hotter team than the Mets right now, winners of 10 straight. They also have a starting pitching advantage in this one. Colon has a 24% K-rate and a 2.9 SIERA, the 26th best mark in the league so far. By comparison, Teheran has only an 18% K-rate. His 3.7 ERA is almost a full run lower than his 4.6 xFIP or his 4.5 SIERA, the 108th ranked mark in the league. When he faced the Mets on 04/11, he had a good outing on the surface (1 ER in 6 innings) but when you look closer he actually allowed 3 runs (2 were unearned) and issued 4 BB’s. His SIERA was 5.1 in that one with a 29% LD-rate and only a 36% GB-rate. This time he gets to face them on the road. I expect a different outing more in line with his advanced stats.
Milwaukee Brewers -105
Lohse has a 10.3 ERA but his 3.9 SIERA indicates a pitcher that is just a tad ‘unlucky’ so far. His 0.357 BABIP and a ridiculously low 45% strand-rate, plus an inflated 29% HR/FB rate have a lot to do with it. Facing a mediocre Cincy lineup at home today I think Lohse has a good shot to get back on track. He dominated this team last season and has a 2.7 career ERA against them in 20 career starts. As far as Bailey is concerned, he made his first start off an injury and the results weren’t pretty. It’s one thing to give up 9 hits and 5 ER’s in 5.2 innings but he failed to strike out even 1 batter while facing 28. Remember, he faced a NL team so the pitcher also numerous times and failed to record even one punch-out. I think today is a strong chance that Brewers break their losing streak.
Los Angeles Dodgers -112
Straight fade of Vogelsong who has been one of the worst pitchers in the league over the last few years. His 5.2 SIERA this season is right in line with his recent performance. Dodgers rested a number of key hitters yesterday so I expect all to be available today. Plus this Bolsinger kid is pretty decent. Last year he recorded a 5.5 ERA but his 3.3 xFIP and 3.5 SIERA indicate a much stronger pitcher than that. He had a 20% K-rate and a 52% GB-rate in 52 major-league innings, and that tells me the kid can pitch. His .355 BABIp and low 64% strand-rate had a lot to do with his ERA being inflated. So far in two AAA starts he has a K/9 rate of 14 with a 0.0 ERA and 1.7 FIP. Backed by a strong offense and a very good BP, I expect him to do well against Vogelsong and the light-hitting Giants.
San Diego Padres -113
Just a much better pitcher on the mound here. Ross hasn’t been ‘great’ but he’s better than Lyles who has almost as many walks issued (9) as strike-outs (10). Lyles has a 4.5 FIP and 1.1 HR/9 rate at Coors and I don’t like his chances against a potent Padres lineup
Washington Nationals -142
Scherzer at home at these odds? Can’t pass that up. Scherzer is dominating the NL right now and some might argue that Wacha is doing the same as his 1.4 ERA indicates. But his 4.6/4.2/4.4 FxS tell a different story. His 11% K-rate is extremely low as he’s been aided by unsustainable 0.186 BABIp and 100% strand-rate so far. Facing an improving (healthier) Washington lineup on the road will be a bigger challenge than going up against Cincy in his first 2 starts. Back Scherzer with confidence at home in this one.
Chicago Cubs -104
No McCutchen in the lineup for the Pirates today which is a big loss for Pittsburgh of course. In addition their best reliever so far this year, Tony Watson pitched 2 innings yesterday (30 pitches) and 3 of the last 4 days. I don’t see him being available in this early game either. Starting pitching is a wash but Cubs have an advantage offensively and with their BP in this matchup. I expect them to bounce back.
Miami Marlins -113
Have you looked at Phillies’ lineup today? They are without Howard, Utley, or Ruiz. This is a team that ranks 29th offensively so far and 30th against righties, and they’ll be even worse than that in today’s matchup. Neither pitcher is anything special but Phelps at least is coming off a start on 04/17. McGowan has worked primarily in the BP with his last appearance being 4-days ago. Phillies’ BP has a 2.5 ERA but their 4.2 SIERA is the 29th worst mark in the league, indicating to me that this group isn’t as good as their ERA indicates. Plus both Garcia and Giles have pitched in two straight games so their availability is in question today. This is a very winnable game for Miami.
New York Mets -128
Sometimes when you’re hot, you’re ‘hot’, and there isn’t a hotter team than the Mets right now, winners of 10 straight. They also have a starting pitching advantage in this one. Colon has a 24% K-rate and a 2.9 SIERA, the 26th best mark in the league so far. By comparison, Teheran has only an 18% K-rate. His 3.7 ERA is almost a full run lower than his 4.6 xFIP or his 4.5 SIERA, the 108th ranked mark in the league. When he faced the Mets on 04/11, he had a good outing on the surface (1 ER in 6 innings) but when you look closer he actually allowed 3 runs (2 were unearned) and issued 4 BB’s. His SIERA was 5.1 in that one with a 29% LD-rate and only a 36% GB-rate. This time he gets to face them on the road. I expect a different outing more in line with his advanced stats.
Milwaukee Brewers -105
Lohse has a 10.3 ERA but his 3.9 SIERA indicates a pitcher that is just a tad ‘unlucky’ so far. His 0.357 BABIP and a ridiculously low 45% strand-rate, plus an inflated 29% HR/FB rate have a lot to do with it. Facing a mediocre Cincy lineup at home today I think Lohse has a good shot to get back on track. He dominated this team last season and has a 2.7 career ERA against them in 20 career starts. As far as Bailey is concerned, he made his first start off an injury and the results weren’t pretty. It’s one thing to give up 9 hits and 5 ER’s in 5.2 innings but he failed to strike out even 1 batter while facing 28. Remember, he faced a NL team so the pitcher also numerous times and failed to record even one punch-out. I think today is a strong chance that Brewers break their losing streak.
Los Angeles Dodgers -112
Straight fade of Vogelsong who has been one of the worst pitchers in the league over the last few years. His 5.2 SIERA this season is right in line with his recent performance. Dodgers rested a number of key hitters yesterday so I expect all to be available today. Plus this Bolsinger kid is pretty decent. Last year he recorded a 5.5 ERA but his 3.3 xFIP and 3.5 SIERA indicate a much stronger pitcher than that. He had a 20% K-rate and a 52% GB-rate in 52 major-league innings, and that tells me the kid can pitch. His .355 BABIp and low 64% strand-rate had a lot to do with his ERA being inflated. So far in two AAA starts he has a K/9 rate of 14 with a 0.0 ERA and 1.7 FIP. Backed by a strong offense and a very good BP, I expect him to do well against Vogelsong and the light-hitting Giants.
San Diego Padres -113
Just a much better pitcher on the mound here. Ross hasn’t been ‘great’ but he’s better than Lyles who has almost as many walks issued (9) as strike-outs (10). Lyles has a 4.5 FIP and 1.1 HR/9 rate at Coors and I don’t like his chances against a potent Padres lineup
Washington Nationals -142
Scherzer at home at these odds? Can’t pass that up. Scherzer is dominating the NL right now and some might argue that Wacha is doing the same as his 1.4 ERA indicates. But his 4.6/4.2/4.4 FxS tell a different story. His 11% K-rate is extremely low as he’s been aided by unsustainable 0.186 BABIp and 100% strand-rate so far. Facing an improving (healthier) Washington lineup on the road will be a bigger challenge than going up against Cincy in his first 2 starts. Back Scherzer with confidence at home in this one.
HONDO
Pittsburgh Pirates w/Locke
Hondo’s losing streak grew to five Wednesday when the Tribe went belly up, but it ended right there because the Reds took down the Brewers to cut the debt to 240 clendenons.
Thursday: Mr. Aitch will go with his Locke of the Day — 10 units on the Pirates to patch together a victory against the Cubs.
Pittsburgh Pirates w/Locke
Hondo’s losing streak grew to five Wednesday when the Tribe went belly up, but it ended right there because the Reds took down the Brewers to cut the debt to 240 clendenons.
Thursday: Mr. Aitch will go with his Locke of the Day — 10 units on the Pirates to patch together a victory against the Cubs.
Bob Balfe
Tampa Bay Rays
Odorizzi/Buchholz
Clay Buchholz has struggled and we have cashed in going against him the last few years. This guy is a decent strike out pitcher, but allows too many hits which turn to runs. Jake Odorizzi has been masterful this year. This guy has the best WHIP in the American League and you always love a guy that doesn’t allow walks or many hits. That is obviously the key to winning pitching. Take the Rays.
Tampa Bay Rays
Odorizzi/Buchholz
Clay Buchholz has struggled and we have cashed in going against him the last few years. This guy is a decent strike out pitcher, but allows too many hits which turn to runs. Jake Odorizzi has been masterful this year. This guy has the best WHIP in the American League and you always love a guy that doesn’t allow walks or many hits. That is obviously the key to winning pitching. Take the Rays.
but I will donate $5 to whoever buys! 
SportsWagers
NHL Playoffs - Game 4
DETROIT -105 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The oddsmakers do not like what they see in the Lightning. The updated series line sees the Red Wings as a -146 favorite heading into Game 4 tonight. That’s a significant price on the Wings when you consider a win tonight by the Bolts puts Tampa Bay back in control of the series. That adjusted line strongly suggests that the linesmakers do not like the Bolts chances here. So, instead of playing the Red Wings at -146 to win the series, we’ll play the better value offered up in the game instead.
There are several factors working against the Bolts here. First, Tampa is loaded with young guys that are in a high pressure situation tonight and if their response in Game 3 is any indication of what to expect tonight then the Bolts are in trouble. It’s also worth noting that the Bolts went 18-23 on the road during the regular season, meaning they thrived at home and that Game 2 performance was not out of character. Mike Babcock’s decision to go with Peter Mrazek over Jimmy Howard was a brilliant one and now Mrazek is in the heads of the Bolts as well.
Detroit was badly outplayed in Game 1 in Tampa Bay but they started to come on in Game 2 and they played their best game of the series in Game 3. From looking overwhelmed in Game 1, Detroit has slowly and methodically turned this series in its favor. Tampa has gone from being frustrated in Game 1 to now having doubt after Game 3 and now this highly experienced Detroit team with the best coaching staff in the league is very likely going to play on Tampa’s doubt. The great Pavel Datsyuk is leading the way for Detroit and is proving once again why he’s regarded as one of the best playoff performers to ever play this game. Tampa won Game 2 by a score of 5-1 but the Bolts actually played a better Game 1 than Game 2. What we see is a Red Wings’ team that has gotten progressively better with each passing period in this series. Detroit’s offense is loaded with snipers and playmakers and now they’re poised to turn it up another notch against a team that was knocked out in four straight last year in the first round and is now down a game in this first round. That doubt for the Bolts has crept back in and it’s difficult to shake off. Wounded and ripe to get beat again, Tampa's high expectations are circling the drain.
Our Pick
DETROIT -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)
NHL Playoffs - Game 5
Calgary +133 over VANCOUVER
OT included. RIP Eddie Lack. The Canucks have made the mistake of going with Ryan Miller here because why? Lack is the reason the Canucks made the playoffs, as Miller’s injury turned out to be a blessing in disguise after he posted save percentages of .821, .882, .722, .868 and .842 in five of the last 10 regular season games he appeared in. The Canucks are not down 1-3 because of Lack. The Canucks are down by two games and on the brink of elimination because Calgary has been the better team throughout. The Flames defense has really stood out in this series with their efficient puck-moving skills that allows them to move the puck quickly out of their own end and create instant offense in the process but it doesn’t end there.
The Canucks offense is extremely limited. The loss of Alex Burrows (and Zack Kassian) has forced the Canucks to use Radam Vrbata on that top line with the Sedins, thus taking away a real scoring threat on the second line. Contain Vancouver’s top line and its win expectation decreases drastically. By contrast, the Flames have three legit scoring lines and a rock solid fourth line. Sam Bennett has given the Canucks something else to think about too, as he’s been an impact player this entire series. The Flames have scored a PP goal in every game with the exception of Game 1. Overall, Calgary has connected four times in 10 PP opportunities while the Canucks have connected twice in 12 tries. The Canucks were very solid in Game 2 of this series but other than the first period in that game in which they outshot Calgary 13-3 and scored twice, they have been the second best team on the ice. Calgary has the momentum, the confidence, better scoring options and a swagger about them that the Canucks have not been able to match. The Canucks are taking a huge chance tonight by putting Miller in net. If the Canucks were able to get to Eddie Lack, we definitely like their chances of burying some pucks behind Ryan Miller. In the end, we must stick with playing value and in that regard, one has to give the Flames a better chance of closing out this series than the Canucks’ chances of extending it.
Our Pick
Calgary +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)
NHL Playoffs - Game 4
DETROIT -105 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The oddsmakers do not like what they see in the Lightning. The updated series line sees the Red Wings as a -146 favorite heading into Game 4 tonight. That’s a significant price on the Wings when you consider a win tonight by the Bolts puts Tampa Bay back in control of the series. That adjusted line strongly suggests that the linesmakers do not like the Bolts chances here. So, instead of playing the Red Wings at -146 to win the series, we’ll play the better value offered up in the game instead.
There are several factors working against the Bolts here. First, Tampa is loaded with young guys that are in a high pressure situation tonight and if their response in Game 3 is any indication of what to expect tonight then the Bolts are in trouble. It’s also worth noting that the Bolts went 18-23 on the road during the regular season, meaning they thrived at home and that Game 2 performance was not out of character. Mike Babcock’s decision to go with Peter Mrazek over Jimmy Howard was a brilliant one and now Mrazek is in the heads of the Bolts as well.
Detroit was badly outplayed in Game 1 in Tampa Bay but they started to come on in Game 2 and they played their best game of the series in Game 3. From looking overwhelmed in Game 1, Detroit has slowly and methodically turned this series in its favor. Tampa has gone from being frustrated in Game 1 to now having doubt after Game 3 and now this highly experienced Detroit team with the best coaching staff in the league is very likely going to play on Tampa’s doubt. The great Pavel Datsyuk is leading the way for Detroit and is proving once again why he’s regarded as one of the best playoff performers to ever play this game. Tampa won Game 2 by a score of 5-1 but the Bolts actually played a better Game 1 than Game 2. What we see is a Red Wings’ team that has gotten progressively better with each passing period in this series. Detroit’s offense is loaded with snipers and playmakers and now they’re poised to turn it up another notch against a team that was knocked out in four straight last year in the first round and is now down a game in this first round. That doubt for the Bolts has crept back in and it’s difficult to shake off. Wounded and ripe to get beat again, Tampa's high expectations are circling the drain.
Our Pick
DETROIT -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)
NHL Playoffs - Game 5
Calgary +133 over VANCOUVER
OT included. RIP Eddie Lack. The Canucks have made the mistake of going with Ryan Miller here because why? Lack is the reason the Canucks made the playoffs, as Miller’s injury turned out to be a blessing in disguise after he posted save percentages of .821, .882, .722, .868 and .842 in five of the last 10 regular season games he appeared in. The Canucks are not down 1-3 because of Lack. The Canucks are down by two games and on the brink of elimination because Calgary has been the better team throughout. The Flames defense has really stood out in this series with their efficient puck-moving skills that allows them to move the puck quickly out of their own end and create instant offense in the process but it doesn’t end there.
The Canucks offense is extremely limited. The loss of Alex Burrows (and Zack Kassian) has forced the Canucks to use Radam Vrbata on that top line with the Sedins, thus taking away a real scoring threat on the second line. Contain Vancouver’s top line and its win expectation decreases drastically. By contrast, the Flames have three legit scoring lines and a rock solid fourth line. Sam Bennett has given the Canucks something else to think about too, as he’s been an impact player this entire series. The Flames have scored a PP goal in every game with the exception of Game 1. Overall, Calgary has connected four times in 10 PP opportunities while the Canucks have connected twice in 12 tries. The Canucks were very solid in Game 2 of this series but other than the first period in that game in which they outshot Calgary 13-3 and scored twice, they have been the second best team on the ice. Calgary has the momentum, the confidence, better scoring options and a swagger about them that the Canucks have not been able to match. The Canucks are taking a huge chance tonight by putting Miller in net. If the Canucks were able to get to Eddie Lack, we definitely like their chances of burying some pucks behind Ryan Miller. In the end, we must stick with playing value and in that regard, one has to give the Flames a better chance of closing out this series than the Canucks’ chances of extending it.
Our Pick
Calgary +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)
