SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago +1.52 over N.Y. METS
The Mets are batting a collective .229 as a team but over its last five games they’re batting .198. Hell, they even had trouble hitting two position players last Sunday in that 20-inning marathon when that genius Tony LaRussa, used SS Felipe Lopez and OF Joe Mather to pitch in the 19th and 20th innings respectively with the game tied 0-0. Tom Gorzelanny has great stats against Mets hitters. He has allowed just two extra base hits in 32 AB’s. As a collection of hitters, the Mets are hitting just .156 against Gorzelanny and he’s off to a good start this season. In his season debut in Cincinnati, Gorzelanny pitched into the seventh inning and did not give up an earned run. He also kept the ball down and induced 10 groundouts to just six pop-ups. The Cubbies bats are a concern too but they’re hitting 50 points better than the Mets over the past five games. Johan Santana has two quality starts and one shaky one but his ground ball to fly-ball ratio should be a huge concern for anyone thinking of laying the lumber. Santana’s recorded fly-outs (32) are almost twice the amount of induced groundouts (17) and that’s a sign of bad things to come. The Nats hit him hard in his second start of the year. So, what we have here is a very nice tag on the Cubbies against a team that is fighting it miserably to score anything and one has to believe the Cubs chances of winning are as good or even better than the feeble Mets chances. Play: Chicago +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.84 over MINNESOTA (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Twins are playing great ball and now sit at 11-4, which makes this one of less importance when you consider it’s a day game after a night game. Not that the Twins won’t want to win but when you’re 11-4 and you’re playing a day game after a night game, the manager will very often give some bench players some time and this is the perfect spot for that to occur. Furthermore, Mark Talbot is a guy that has pitched well and the Twins have yet to see him. Talbot pitched a complete game against CWS last week and his 2010 ground-ball/line-drive/fly-out ratios of 56/18/27 are very impressive indeed. That’s always a good indicator to see if a guy has been lucky or not and Talbot has not, he’s been very good. Scott Baker has pitched well in two of three starts. With this guy, it’s always been hit and miss and while he could certainly throw another gem against this struggling line-up, fact is Baker could give up some runs when you consider that current Cleveland hitters have nine HR’s in 218 AB’s against Baker. With the Twins having never seen Talbot and with likely a few reserves starting, the play here is the Tribe in five. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.06 over CHICAGO
The Rays are 11-4 while the South Side is 5-10. That alone makes the visitors a worthy wager here. Also consider that the White Sox have been seeing BB’s all year and were shutout again last night. Thus far, the White Sox have scored just 57 runs while the Rays have scored 83. Furthermore, the Rays are 8-1 vs righties and have scored more runs against right-handed pitchers than any team in either league. Jake Peavy has faced the Indians twice and the Jays once and those two are among the worst hitting teams in the majors. By contrast, James Shields has faced the Orioles, Red Sox and Yanks and while the O’s are pitiful, the Yanks and Red Sox are not. Give every single edge to the Rays and after beating the South Side 12-0 last night they’re very likely itching to get back out there tonight. Play: Tampa Bay +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 over PITTSBURGH
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. Randy Wolf has made three starts and for the most part he’s been very ordinary but he’s faced three solid hitting line-ups in Colorado, St. Louis and Washington and will take a big step down in class when facing the Pirates. Additionally, Wolf has had a lot of success against this collection of Pitt hitters. In 68 ABs, they hit just .221 against him and overall, over its last five games, the Pirates are batting .205. To make matters worse, the Pirates will send out its number five man in the rotation and being the fifth man in the Bucs rotation pretty much says it all. Daniel McCutchen has struggled mightily since being named the fifth starter. In two outings covering 7.1 innings, he has allowed three bombs and has just three Ks. Furthermore, the Brewers have won three straight and has scored eight runs or more in all three games for a total of 27 runs scored over that stretch. It’s unlikely they or their bats will slow down here. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago +1.52 over N.Y. METS
The Mets are batting a collective .229 as a team but over its last five games they’re batting .198. Hell, they even had trouble hitting two position players last Sunday in that 20-inning marathon when that genius Tony LaRussa, used SS Felipe Lopez and OF Joe Mather to pitch in the 19th and 20th innings respectively with the game tied 0-0. Tom Gorzelanny has great stats against Mets hitters. He has allowed just two extra base hits in 32 AB’s. As a collection of hitters, the Mets are hitting just .156 against Gorzelanny and he’s off to a good start this season. In his season debut in Cincinnati, Gorzelanny pitched into the seventh inning and did not give up an earned run. He also kept the ball down and induced 10 groundouts to just six pop-ups. The Cubbies bats are a concern too but they’re hitting 50 points better than the Mets over the past five games. Johan Santana has two quality starts and one shaky one but his ground ball to fly-ball ratio should be a huge concern for anyone thinking of laying the lumber. Santana’s recorded fly-outs (32) are almost twice the amount of induced groundouts (17) and that’s a sign of bad things to come. The Nats hit him hard in his second start of the year. So, what we have here is a very nice tag on the Cubbies against a team that is fighting it miserably to score anything and one has to believe the Cubs chances of winning are as good or even better than the feeble Mets chances. Play: Chicago +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
Cleveland +1.84 over MINNESOTA (1st 5 innings)
Note the 1:10 PM EST start. The Twins are playing great ball and now sit at 11-4, which makes this one of less importance when you consider it’s a day game after a night game. Not that the Twins won’t want to win but when you’re 11-4 and you’re playing a day game after a night game, the manager will very often give some bench players some time and this is the perfect spot for that to occur. Furthermore, Mark Talbot is a guy that has pitched well and the Twins have yet to see him. Talbot pitched a complete game against CWS last week and his 2010 ground-ball/line-drive/fly-out ratios of 56/18/27 are very impressive indeed. That’s always a good indicator to see if a guy has been lucky or not and Talbot has not, he’s been very good. Scott Baker has pitched well in two of three starts. With this guy, it’s always been hit and miss and while he could certainly throw another gem against this struggling line-up, fact is Baker could give up some runs when you consider that current Cleveland hitters have nine HR’s in 218 AB’s against Baker. With the Twins having never seen Talbot and with likely a few reserves starting, the play here is the Tribe in five. Overlay. Play: Cleveland +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
Tampa Bay +1.06 over CHICAGO
The Rays are 11-4 while the South Side is 5-10. That alone makes the visitors a worthy wager here. Also consider that the White Sox have been seeing BB’s all year and were shutout again last night. Thus far, the White Sox have scored just 57 runs while the Rays have scored 83. Furthermore, the Rays are 8-1 vs righties and have scored more runs against right-handed pitchers than any team in either league. Jake Peavy has faced the Indians twice and the Jays once and those two are among the worst hitting teams in the majors. By contrast, James Shields has faced the Orioles, Red Sox and Yanks and while the O’s are pitiful, the Yanks and Red Sox are not. Give every single edge to the Rays and after beating the South Side 12-0 last night they’re very likely itching to get back out there tonight. Play: Tampa Bay +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 over PITTSBURGH
Note the 12:35 PM EST start. Randy Wolf has made three starts and for the most part he’s been very ordinary but he’s faced three solid hitting line-ups in Colorado, St. Louis and Washington and will take a big step down in class when facing the Pirates. Additionally, Wolf has had a lot of success against this collection of Pitt hitters. In 68 ABs, they hit just .221 against him and overall, over its last five games, the Pirates are batting .205. To make matters worse, the Pirates will send out its number five man in the rotation and being the fifth man in the Bucs rotation pretty much says it all. Daniel McCutchen has struggled mightily since being named the fifth starter. In two outings covering 7.1 innings, he has allowed three bombs and has just three Ks. Furthermore, the Brewers have won three straight and has scored eight runs or more in all three games for a total of 27 runs scored over that stretch. It’s unlikely they or their bats will slow down here. Play: Milwaukee –1½ +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
