SPORTS WAGERS
INDIANA +5 over Chicago
The Bulls are up 2-0 in this series but don’t think for a second that the Pacers are hanging their heads. One could make a strong argument that with a couple of bounces going its way, Indiana could be up 2-0 heading home. The Pacers lost both games in Chicago by five and six points respectively. They were ahead in both games late in the fourth and just came up short on both occasions. One could argue that the Bulls have not played their best basketball yet. They shot just 39% from the field in game two and committed 21 turnovers, yet they still won. While that argument certainly has some validity, an argument can be made for the Pacers too, as Chicago has had an overwhelming edge on the boards (53-37 in game 2). A correction and this series is far from over. Paul George deserves a ton of credit for quality defensive work against Derrick Rose. The 6-foot-8 rookie used his length to contain Rose about as well as one could ask for while also having four blocks and three steals in an active performance. The 37-win Pacers have not looked a bit out of place against the 62-win Bulls and now they come home knowing they can beat this team with a better rebounding effort. Play: Indiana +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
PHILADELPHIA +5 over Miami
How dominating was the Heat's Game 2 performance? Well, LeBron James had 29 points, which matched the output of the Sixers' five starters. The Heat have turned the Sixers into a jump-shooting team. After going 14 for 23 from the field in the first quarter of Game 1, the Sixers are 48 for 141 (34 percent) over the next seven quarters. Those might be grim numbers but let us not forget that when you wager on the Heat you’re going to pay a premium and that seldom comes recommended. Secondly, the 76ers had a 14-point lead in game one before trailing by 16 at one point. They cut that 16-point deficit to one before ultimately losing by just eight. Philly has the deeper bench and while nobody in their right mind gives them a chance to win this series, there’s a decent chance that they’ll win a game, maybe two. We’ve seen Miami get very complacent on far too many occasions this season and after a blowout in game two, complacency could set in again. The Sixers are a dangerous team and they proved so all season long. They’re young but they have game and a win here would not surprise. Play: Philadelphia +5 (Risking 2.1 units to in 2).
PORTLAND –5½ over Dallas
The Mavericks are considered to be the better team. After all, they won more games and they were also a –176 favorite to win the series. Dallas was a 4½-point favorite in game one and they covered. In game two, the line dropped to Dallas –3½ and they won by 12. Interesting, isn’t it, that with Dallas winning both games and being the prohibitive fave, the Blazers are a 5½-point choice in game three when Dallas was a lower favorite in games one and two? Are we missing something here? We don’t think so. Portland will make adjustments here and they will compete. The Blazers stagnant spells on offense must stop. Dallas doesn’t like to get dirty. They can be pushed around in the paint and that’s one of the Blazers strengths. The complaining about officiating must stop. Just play basketball. Portland is so much better than they’ve shown in this series, although they could have easily won the first game. The Mavs are not that strong. They rely heavily on perimeter shooting and rarely get second chance points. Portland has to come in and correct these not so difficult issues. The Blazers are best in their own building while the Mavericks have not fared well when traveling to this region. Dallas lost and failed to cover in both trips here during the regular season, once as road chalk and the second time as a 4.5- point dog. The Blazers may be down but they can get right back in this series. Both the talent level and the line suggests there’s a strong chance that will happen. Play: Portland –5½ (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Arizona +119 over CINCINNATI
12:35 PM EST. Daniel Hudson got an extended MLB look after his trade from the White Sox to Arizona last year. His results were outstanding (2.45 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) and his skills** (for a more in depth look at skills see bottom of these write-ups) were near elite. This season, Hudson is 0-3 but he’s not an 0-3 pitcher and a string of wins is forthcoming very soon. He’s only allowed 15 hits in 19 innings and over that span he’s struck out 23 batters. He’s lasted at least six full innings in every start but the D-Backs have only given him four runs of support in those three games. Mike Leake is in his second season in the majors. He has zero minor-league experience and he was shut down last season in late August after posting a 12.41 ERA in his last 4 outings. This season he’s been serviceable with a 2-0 record and 14 K’s in 16.2 innings but his ERA is 5.26 and he’s also walked eight batters. There’s another problem too, as pitching might not be the only thing on Leake’s mind. Leake was arrested Monday on a first-degree misdemeanor charge for allegedly removing price tags from six T-shirts in a Macy's store and trying to leave without paying. The Reds would have skipped him today and publicly admitted so but with Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey on the DL they’re forced to go with him. As soon as those two starters are back, Leake will be riding buses in the minors and he pretty much knows that. Success at this level takes great concentration and this afternoon Mike Leake is unlikely to even come close to the level needed for success. Play: Arizona +119 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +123 over FLORIDA
James MacDonald has some ugly numbers this year. In three starts, he’s 0-1 with an ERA of 7.47 after giving up 19 hits and 13 ER in just 15.2 frames. However, his three starts have come against the red-hot bats of Cincinnati, Colorado and St. Louis and it wasn’t all bad. In his last start in Cincinnati he gave up a fifth inning grand slam where four of the six runs he allowed came from. MacDonald has some very good stuff and is expected to have a bright future in the majors. He’s also had success against the Fish in his career with a 1-1 record and 2.35 ERA. Chris Volstad is not exactly a pitcher to fear. He’s started two games this year and has lasted a combined 9.2 frames. The right-hander has walked six batters over that stretch while fanning just four and that’s a huge warning sign. He’s also allowed two home runs. In his last start, Volstad’s fastball topped off at 89 MPH and he was all over the place in terms of control. He’s also 1-1 with a 7.07 ERA in three career starts against Pittsburgh. Like most pitchers, Volstad was once a top-prospect but now he’s just trying to stay in the majors. Hardly a guy to be spotting this price with. Play: Pittsburgh +123 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago –101 over TAMPA BAY (1st 5 innings)
Chicago has one of the worst pens in the league while the Rays pen is tops in the AL, thus the five inning play. Gavin Floyd entered 2011 as one of the game's more reliable pitchers. While his skills do not rank among the elite, they are nonetheless rock solid. Floyd has posted two straight seasons with nearly identical ERAs and stable skills and there are some encouraging underlying trends indicating ERA upside. Floyd has shown a multi-year growth in ground-ball tendency and a multi-year decline in hr/9. He has outstanding command and he also has an outstanding record against the Rays. In his career against TB, Floyd has thrown 29 innings and has allowed just 17 hits, struck out 27 and walked just four. Jeff Niemann is entering his third season in the Tampa rotation and has posted similar skills in each of his first two seasons. This season he’s 0-2 with an ERA of 6.32 and a WHIP of 1.66. Both his command and groundball rate (32%) are on the decline and while he’s only walked four batters this season he’s going deep into counts and that’s always a red flag. Additionally, current South Side hitters are batting .307 off Niemann and for a guy with pedestrian skills and shattering confidence this could be a long day. Play: Chicago –101 in the first five innings (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
