Bigplaya,
hate to be a buzzkill but define doing well with owad. he doesnt even post his results everyday anymore except when he wins thats how you know its not going well.
mti-
Matchup: Florida at Atlanta
Time: 7:10 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: Nolasco, Ricky (R) vs. Beachy, Brandon (R)
Play: Florida (ML +157)
Line Source: WYNN
Posted on: April 14, 2011 @ 9:02:43 AM EDT
Josh Johnson pitched a gem yesterday and the Marlins won 5-1 to even the series at one. Florida went up 5-0 after the first three innings and ended up outhitting the Braves 8-2. We like the Fish to take the series here. The Braves are a money-burning 23-29 as a home favorite when they are off a night loss in which they never led.
Florida, on the other hand, is 9-0 after a win in which they left fewer than 10 men on base and 6-0 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they are off a win in which they never trailed.
The last time the Braves saw Nolasco, they sent him to the showers after two-plus innings and won 12-3. Ricky is very reliable in this spot. The Marlins are a perfect 4-0 as a road dog with Nolasco when seeking same-season revenge for a lost in Nolasco’s last start vs this opponent. In these four games, Nolasco has four quality starts, allowing an average of 2.0 runs in 7.2 innings with a WHIP of 0.95. Good enough for us to back him at this price vs Brandon Beachy.
MTi’s FORECAST: Florida 4 ATLANTA 2
Matchup: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh
Time: 7:05 PM EDT (Thu)
Listed pitchers must go: Wolf, Randy (L) vs. Maholm, Paul (L)
Play: Pittsburgh (ML +106)
Line Source: WYNN
Posted on: April 14, 2011 @ 9:02:43 AM EDT
The Pirates have lost Maholm’s first two starts of the season and the Pirates have been significantly underestimated when they lost their starter’s last two starts. In fact, Since June 19 last season, Pittsburgh is a very profitable 17-8 at home when they lost the last two games their starter started. They are 5-0 their last five in this situation and they were the dog every time – as they are here. Going back further, we find that Paul Maholm is THE MAN in this spot. In his career, the Pirates are 17-4 at home when the Pirates lost his last two starts.
In addition, Pittsburgh’s trend number four from the 2011 MLB Handicapping Bible tells us that: “The Pirates are 14-0 (+3.2 rpg) since June 2006 at home when they are off a loss in which their opponent left fewer than ten men on base and had more than five hits, as long as the Pirates were not a 180-plus dog in that loss.”
Also from the Bible: “The Brewers are 0-8 (-5.8 rpg) since 2009 after a win as a favorite in which they had fewer than four team-left-on-base.”
Finally, the Brewers have not had the “eye-of-the-tiger” in this situation. Milwaukee is 5-26 at night in the last game of a series when their line is within 20 cents of pickem and they are off a win in which they never trailed.
We’ll take the live home dog.
MTi’s FORECAST: PITTSBURGH 4 Milwaukee 3
