Sportswagers
Minnesota @ WASHINGTON
Minnesota +115 over WASHINGTON
OT included. Some things are easier said than done. We mentioned on Tuesday that the way you defeat the Capitals is to shut down the Ovechkin/Backstrom/whoever else line but the Jackets could not do that in a 5-3 loss. We should expand on that and suggest that in order to shut down Overchkin and Backstrom, staying out of the box is essential. In 5-on-5 play, Backstrom and Ovechkin have combined for a plus/minus of +4. Over 65 games, that’s about 0.06% of their positive production coming when the Caps play at even strength. On the PP, however, Ovechkin and Backstrom have combined for 22 goals and 34 assists for a combined 56 points and/or a plus minus of +38. No question that they’re both great players while containing them has been a lesson in futility on most nights for the opposition. However, unlike other teams like Tampa Bay, New York or Pittsburgh for instance, if you shut down their top guys (Stamkos, Nash and Crosby), those teams have plenty of others to pick it up. That’s not the case with Washington. Again, you shut down that top pair and Washington has nobody to pick it up. Shut down that pair and the Caps instantly become the most offensively challenged team in the NHL. That makes them a big risk when spotting weight against playoff contenders that play strong defense.
Enter the Wild. They lead the league in shots against per game. That’s not a bad start coming into this one. Devan Dubnyk is an incredible 16-3-1 with a 1.65 goals-against average, a .937 save percentage and five shutouts in 21 games since coming to Minnesota. That’s not a bad backup plan. Minnesota has allowed two goals or less in seven straight and in 14 of its past 17 games. Should they hold the Caps to two or less, a distinct possibility indeed, its chances of winning are better than its chances of losing. From now to the end of the season, the Wild cannot afford to take a night off after the hole that Darcy Kuemper buried them in before Dubnyk arrived. Minnesota is an extremely determined and focused team that has been one of the toughest outs in the NHL over the past couple of months. Our commitment remains to play value and let the chips fall where they may and that’s exactly what we’re doing here.
Our Pick
Minnesota +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)
Calgary @ BOSTON
Calgary (1st period) +144 over BOSTON
First period only. The Bruins figure to be raring to go here after being off since Saturday. That’s plenty of rest for a team fighting for their playoff lives. Boston has won two straight and three of its past four but two of those three victories occurred against Arizona and New Jersey in OT. Boston’s other victory was a resounding 6-2 win in Chicago but let’s just say they caught the Blackhawks flatfooted that night. Breaking it down into perspective and the Bruins have three wins in their past 10 games with two of those wins coming against Arizona and New Jersey. Over that span, Boston has lost to Edmonton (4-3), St. Louis (5-1), Dallas (5-3) and Vancouver (5-2) among others. The Bruins probably deserved a better fate in many games lately but this team is struggling mightily to win games no matter how you break it down. Teams are very often flat in the first period after being off for three days or more so we’ll attempt to take advantage of that here.
We can find lots of reasons to lay off Calgary here. Aside from missing Mark Giordano, Calgary will play its fifth straight on the road and they hung on for dear life in its last game to defeat Philadelphia. The Flames absolutely dominated the first half of that game but the second half of the game was a different story. Calgary’s defensemen, especially Derek Engelland were asked to play a lot more minutes in Giordano’s absence and it took a toll by the second half. The Flames survived a barrage of shots and Philadelphia’s intense pressure in the third before scoring in OT to win it. However, Calgary was dominating in the first period, outshooting the Flyers 12-5 and spending nearly the entire period in Philly’s end. We’re not going to ignore that. The loss of Giordano hurts much later in the game than at the start. Calgary keeps getting written off for dead and all they do is continue to respond. We’ve never seen a team this focused with this much success be so disrespected by the market. Calgary has won 13 of its past 21 games. Its last eight losses over that span came against the Islanders, Rangers, Minnesota (twice), Anaheim (twice), Los Angeles and Pittsburgh. They have more points than the Bruins and the last time they lost to a team lower than them in the standings was 22 games ago when they lost to the Panthers, 6-5. Only twice in their last 30 games have the Flames lost to a team lower than they are in the standings. The Flames determination alone makes them worthy of a bet. Goaltender Kari Ramo has a .938 save percentage in road games, which is the highest in the NHL among goaltenders that have participated in at least 10 road contests. We loved the way Calgary has played in the first period against every team (Philadelphia, NYI, New Jersey and NYR) during this current road trip and so that’s how we’re playing it.
Our Pick
Calgary (1st period) +144 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.88)
Dallas @ FLORIDA
Dallas +105 over FLORIDA
OT included. We’ve mentioned several times in the past how the Stars are a poor favorite while being a live dog on most nights. Dallas has several impressive wins when least expected over some very good teams and so we’re going to confidently step in on them here. It’s also worth noting that Florida is the team that knocked out Tyler Seguin for the year so figure for a little extra motivation from Dallas here in an attempt to keep the Panthers from strengthening their playoff chances. There are no question marks with the Stars. They’re a team that has underachieved all year, that is weak defensively and that is capable of going off for five goals on any night. With that in mind, we’re happy to take back a small tag on them here because this one is all about fading the Panthers.
It’s not that the Panthers were the first home team in 16 tries to lose to the Maple Leafs. That means nothing, as Toronto was standing around the entire third period and watching Jonathan Bernier stand on his head. Talk about bizarre and that game was more like a fictional movie than reality. The Panthers changed goalies twice and even had goalie coach Robb Tallas get dressed on an emergency basis but the 41-year-old Tallas never entered the game. He hasn't played in an NHL game since 2001. Roberto Luongo got hurt in the first period and didn't come out for the second. Al Montoya was injured early in the third period, but managed to stay in the game despite being hobbled with a groin injury. He eventually was replaced by Luongo, who got back into uniform after changing into street clothes.Panthers general manager Dale Tallon said his team was in contact with the NHL and trying to get Tallas cleared to play. What does all of this have to do with this game? Lots. You see, Luongo and Montoya are out. The Panthers were forced to call up former Dallas reject and castoff, Dan Ellis. Ellis is a 35-year-old career minor leaguer that went 5-11 last year for Dallas while posting a 3.62 GAA and .879 save percentage. Florida is Ellis’s eighth NHL team in the past seven years. Having a weak netminder puts the entire team in a different mindset. It alters their play. Florida coach Gerard Gallant had a tough decision today. He had to decide between Ellis and Robb Tallas and that’s why we’re playing the Stars.
Our Pick
Dallas +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)
N.Y. Islanders @ NASHVILLE
NASHVILLE -½ +127 over N.Y. Islanders
Regulation only. The Islanders have two wins in their past six games. Those two victories occurred against Calgary and Arizona and they were both in Long Island. Over their past eight road games, the Isles have three wins over Buffalo (3-2), over Philly in OT and over Carolina in a game they were outshot 38-30. The Islanders are near the top of the standings in the East for two reasons. First, they have an outstanding record at home. Second, they have an outstanding record in one-goal games that now stands at 23-8. That’s a product of luck. Tonight, they are not at home and will be playing a team that has been just as lucky as them in one-goal games. The Islanders are a tough out but they are much more beatable on the road while Jaroslav Halak in net is a complete roll of the dice. Halak’s polarizing ways prompted the Islanders to pick up Michal Neuvirth from the Sabres at the deadline. That’s how much confidence they have in Halak. Neuvirth is better and way more consistent and now Halak will be playing with a little added pressure knowing Neuvirth is breathing down his neck.
The Preds are in a funk with four straight losses. We follow all the NHL beat writers on Twitter to get reports and little tidbits on teams during their morning skate. One of the Preds beat writers tweeted this out this morning: Not a whole lot of joking around this morning for the Preds. Last time they were this quiet/serious they went into Pittsburgh and manhandled the Penguins, 4-0. Nashville is very much like the Islanders in that they are 25-12 in one-goal games and they’re 26-5-1 at home. They are also 11-6 in three-goals games but at home they are 7-1 in three-goal games. The Preds are in the midst of their first losing streak of the season. In fact, they had not lost three in a row this entire year up to now. The mood at the morning practice suggests they figure to be extremely motivated and focused here. The Preds are simply a different team at home, where they rarely lose and often dominate. They may be poised to play one of their best games of the year tonight and with that 26-5-1 home record, they absolutely offer up some great value to win it in regulation.
Our Pick
NASHVILLE -½ +127 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.54)
