STATSYSTEMS SPORTS NCAAB REPORT
THURSDAY, MARCH 5th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 3/5/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Wisconsin (-14) beat Minnesota 63-53 at home in first meeting 12 days ago; Gophers took one foul shot in whole game (Wisconsin was 11-14). Badgers lost last road game at Maryland, are 3-4 as road favorites, with four of six road wins by 8+ points. Minnesota lost three of its last four games, covered three of last four as an underdog; Gophers are 4-3 in Big Ten home games, with losses by 2-2-6 points. Big Ten underdogs of 6 or less points are 10-7 versus spread.
•Arkansas (-6.5) waxed South Carolina 75-55 at home Feb 3, holding them to 27.9% from floor, forcing 20 turnovers in game that was 35-28 at half. Razorbacks won seven of last eight games, are 5-3 on SEC road, with six of eight games decided by 5 or less points (1-3 as road favorite). Carolina won three of last four home games but is 1-7 as an underdog this season. Gamecocks split last six games after starting SEC play 2-9. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-7 versus spread.
•Memphis (-2) beat Connecticut 75-72 at home two weeks ago, despite giving up 19 offensive boards in game they led by 15 early in second half. Tigers lost last two games, are 4-3 on AAC road, 0-2 as road dogs, losing games on foreign soil by 14-18-11 points. Connecticut won last three games, is 2-5 as home favorite, winning last seven home games by 6+ points. Senior Night for Huskies' Boatright, key guy on national title team last season. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-6-1 versus spread.
•VCU (-9) beat Davidson 71-65 Jan 7, forcing only 15 turnovers (+5) but Rams had defensive ace Weber then; VCU lost its last two games, is 3-4 in its last seven, losing two of last three road games. Davidson won last seven games; its Senior Night for Wildcat squad with only one senior in rotation- they're 7-1 as home favorites, with only loss to St Bonaventure. Davidson/Dayton are tied atop A-10; VCU can tie Davidson here. A-10 home favorites of more than 8 points are 12-15-1 versus spread.
•Stanford (-6.5) beat Arizona State 89-70 at home Jan 24, leading 51-41 at half, scoring 1.29 ppp; Cardinal is just 3-5 in its last eight games though, losing last three road games by 1-16-6 points- they're 0-2 as Pac-12 dogs. ASU won its last three home games by total of ten points; they're 2-5 as Pac-12 favorite, 5-5 SU in last ten games. Stanford makes 38.3% on arc; Sun Devils are worst in Pac-12 defending the arc. Pac-12 home teams are 18-15 in games where spread was less than 5 points.
•Sacramento Statehas game lead in Big Sky with two to play; if they win regular season title, they'll host Big Sky tourney for first time next week. Hornets won last three games by 7-8-13 points; they're 4-3 on Big sky road, with one win by more than seven points. Southern Utah won four of last six games after starting league play 2-8; they've covered six of last seven games, are 4-2 as home underdogs, with one loss at home by more than 4 points. Big Sky home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-9.
MVC Tournament, St Louis
•Missouri Statebeat Southern Illinois twice this season, 53-50 (+3) Dec 31 on road, 52-46 (-3) at home a month later; Salukis shot 33% in both games, had 58-25 edge in FTs taken - they're 2-7 in MVC tourney last seven years. Missouri State is 5-5 in this event last five years; they lost six of last eight games overall, are 6-7-1 as Valley underdogs. Salukis lost nine of last eleven games, are 2-3 as MVC favorites. Bears were just 7-31 on arc in two wins over SIU.
•Drake beat Bradley twice this season, 69-57 (+8) in Peoria Jan 28, then 60-54 (-2) at home two weeks late; Bulldogs made 18-36 on arc in those games, Bradley just 13-46. Drake lost four of last six games, but covered four of last six as an underdog; they're 2-5 in this event since winning it in '08. Bradley lost its last seven games (1-4-2 vs. spread); they lost last four games in this event, three by 14+ points, are 0-4 as an MVC favorite this season. These are four worst teams in MVC, not lot to choose from. .
MAAC Tournament, Albany
•Siena swept Niagara this year, beating Eagles 79-69 (-8.5) here (ran out to 21-1 lead) Jan 11, then 74-70 (+2) on road a week later; they made 50%+ from floor in both games, but Siena comes in here on 5-game skid- they're 2-9 in last 11 games, 3-4-1 as MAAC favorite. Niagara won its last four games, with three wins by 4 or less points. after starting 3-13 in MAAC play; they're 5-3 as MAAC underdogs. Siena is 7-1 in first game of this tourney last eight years; Niagara is 5-1 the last six years.
•Fairfield lost 12 of last 13 games; win was 57-43 (+3.5) over St Peter's 12 days ago, holding Peacocks to 29.6% from floor. Stags covered five of last six games overall; they won first game in this event five of last six years; St Peter's lost four of last five games, is 3-10 vs. spread when favored this season; they're 2-5 in first tourney game last seven years. St Peter's beat Fairfield 69-58 (-5.5) in first meeting Feb 7; they were +8 in turnovers in that game.
•Quinnipiac beat Marist twice this season, 66-54 (-13) in first meeting on Jan 11, then 72-71 (-6.5) at Marist a week later; Bobcats come in losing four of last five games- they're 4-3 against spread in last seven games as favorite. Marist lost six of last seven games but is 5-3 versus spread in last eight games as an underdog. Red Foxes lost their first tourney game last two years by 2-6 points. Quinnipiac ended last year on 1-4 skid; they're on another 1-4 skid now.
Ohio Valley Tournament, Nashville
•Tenn-Martin (-1.5) beat Morehead State 75-72 in OT at home Jan 10, in only meeting this season; Skyhawks were down four with 4:01 left that night. Martin lost two of last three games, covered one of last four when favored, but they had bye last night, while Morehead won tough game by 5 over SE Missouri State, with only one Eagle playing more than 27:00- they used three subs 13+ minutes. This is only third time in decade that Martin had winning record; they won first tourney game other times.
•Over last nine years, Belmont is 19-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins went 7-43 from arc in 74-63 loss at Eastern Illinois Jan 10, only meeting this season. EIU used two guys 33-38 minutes in win over Edwardsville last night; no one else played more than 29:00. Panthers lost by 19 to Belmont in only meeting LY. Bruins come in to this tourney winning last four games, covering five of last seven as a favorite.
•Situational Trends of The Day
--IDAHO is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was IDAHO 72.1, OPPONENT 71.8.
--CHARLOTTE is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 67.4, OPPONENT 60.5.
--CAL DAVIS is 14-2 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 74.1, OPPONENT 68.1.
--ARKANSAS is 1-13 (-13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 30.4, OPPONENT 37.5.
--ARIZONA is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less since 1997.
The average score was ARIZONA 33.3, OPPONENT 31.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--BRADLEY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was BRADLEY 59.0, OPPONENT 62.3.
--VA COMMONWEALTH is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VA COMMONWEALTH 73.4, OPPONENT 61.2.
--CAL DAVIS is 16-3 (+18.4 Units) against the money line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 72.5, OPPONENT 66.1.
--ARIZONA is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 36.9, OPPONENT 24.7.
--MOREHEAD ST is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 29.4, OPPONENT 30.9.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (VA COMMONWEALTH) - a good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread.
(26-3 since 1997.) (89.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 29.6 (Average first half point differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-1).
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Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
Date: March 5-8
Venue: Scottrade Center
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
SCHEDULE
Thursday, March 5
Game #1 - No. 8 Missouri State vs. No. 9 Southern Illinois
Game #2 - No. 7 Drake vs. No. 10 Bradley
Friday, March 6
Game #3 - No. 1 Wichita State vs. Winner Game 1
Game #4 - No. 4 Illinois State vs.. No. 5 Evansville
Game #5 - No. 2 UNI vs. Winner Game 2
Game #6 - No. 3 Indiana State vs. No. 6 Loyola
Saturday, March 7
Game #7 - Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4
Game #8 - Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6
Sunday, March 8
Championship - Winner Game #7 vs. Winner Game #8
TOURNAMENT NOTES:
-- Teams 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 10-4 ATS off SU dog win.
-- Higher-seeded favorites are 81-10 SU & 57-32-2 ATS in first round games.
-- 11-3 off DD SU win versus opponent off DD SU win w/revenge.
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 1-7 ATS w/revenge versus opponent off BB SU wins.
-- 2-10 off DD SU win versus opponent off DD SU loss.
-- DD dogs are 4-11 ATS off SU dog win.
-- #1 seeds are 18-5-1 ATS w/3+ days rest but only 1-6 ATS as dogs.
-- #2 seeds are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS since 2002 and 27-14 ATS as dogs or favorites of < 6 points since 1991.
-- #6 seeds are 4-24 SU.
-- #7 seeds are 3-11 off SU loss and 13-21-1 ATS L35 games overall (4-11 L15 ATS as favorites).
-- #9 seeds are 1-6 ATS when 3-0 SUATS L3 games and 1-5-1 ATS as DD dogs.
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Evansville, Illinois State
THE WAY WE SEE IT: WICHITA STATE is the reigning king of the Valley and Greg Marshall’s troops put on a crowning performance last season, taking a perfect 35-0 record into the Final Four before tasting defeat for the first time. And while there was a serious lack of competition in the MVC last season, the Shockers certainly earned their stripes. They will, however, carry a gigantic bulls-eye on their backs this go-round but you can’t dismiss a 35-1 SU mark in conference games at press time the past two seasons. Is a third straight 30-win season in the offing? Perhaps, but it should be noted that, until last season, the last time Wichita State had won this tournament was back in 1987...
NORTHERN IOWA more than lived up to its billing when the 5-returning starter Panthers battled Wichita State down to the final game for conference honors this campaign. An offensive powerhouse, UNI ranked No. 13 in offensive field goal percentage and No. 16 in 3-point accuracy in the nation this season. And they also lost only one game against the spread away from home this season at press time. Color them super-dangerous...
EVANSVILLE lived up to its preseason expectations (picked to finish 4th in the loop this year) and will be looking to earn its 20th win of the campaign in this tourney. The Aces will need to be all-in if they wish to reverse past failures (10-20-1 ATS, including 2-13-1 ATS versus No. 4 or higher seeds) in this tournament...
ILLINOIS STATE dominated .750 or weaker opposition this season, winning 17 of 22 games, but faltered against better foes, going just 1-6. The Redbirds have rewarded backers in this tourney the past three seasons with a 4-2 ATS wining effort.
THE SLEEPER: Indiana State
The Sycamores more than held their own against sub .700 opposition this season, sporting a 12-6 SU and 10-7 ATS mark, including 4-1 ATS as a dog. They’ve also been a highly credible 8-5 SUATS in this tourney dating back to 2009. Watch and see whether head coach Greg Lansing’s 7-2 SUATS mark in games when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 10 points comes into play should they hook Wichita State.
KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: Play On The #1 Seed In Game One: The simple fact of the matter is numbers don’t lie. Not when the top seed in this tourney is a staggering 24-0 straight-up and 18-5-1 against the spread in its opening game.
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Thursday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
WISCONSIN BADGERS (26-3) @ MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (17-12)
Williams Arena – Minneapolis, MN
Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:00 PM EST
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -6
No. 6 Wisconsin looks to improve its seed in the NCAA tournament with a road win against Minnesota Thursday. Wisconsin hosted Michigan State on Sunday and came away with a 68-61 win as a 9-point home favorite. The Badgers were up big all game, but the Spartans kept fighting and came away with a backdoor cover. Wisconsin has won 11 of its past 12 games SU, but the team is just 4-7-1 ATS in those contests and hasn’t covered in each of its past four games. Minnesota, meanwhile, beat Michigan State in its last game as well. The Golden Gophers went into East Lansing and won 96-90 as 8-point underdogs. The victory prevented Minnesota from losing its fourth straight game SU, and the team has covered in two straight now.
These teams last met on February 21st, when Wisconsin beat Minnesota 63-53 as a 14.5-point home favorite. The Badgers have won three straight games in this head-to-head series SU and seven of the past 10 SU as well. The Golden Gophers are 6-4 ATS in those games, but Wisconsin has won SU in four of its past five trips to Minneapolis. The Badgers are also 3-2 ATS in those games. While Wisconsin has won 14 of its 16 conference games this season, the team is just 5-10-1 ATS. Minnesota hasn’t fared any better though, going 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS versus Big Ten opponents. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is out for this game, but should be back soon for the Badgers. The Golden Gophers are not currently dealing with any injuries.
The Badgers are one of the best two-way teams in college basketball, putting up 71.5 PPG (79th in NCAA) on 47.8% shooting (24th in NCAA) and allowing just 55.8 PPG (7th in NCAA). Bo Ryan coaches this team in a way that allows them to limit turnovers and emphasize taking advantage of mismatches. C Frank Kaminsky (18.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 BPG) is one of the leading candidates to be the Naismith College Player of the Year. The big man is nearly impossible to guard with his ability to score around the basket and shoot out to the three-point line (42% 3PT). He had 31 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals in 37 minutes against Michigan State last game and 21 points (9-for-13 FG, 2-for-3 3PT) the last time he faced Minnesota.
Kaminsky did, however, have just five rebounds in that game and will need to be more effective on the glass because the Golden Gophers outrebounded the Badgers 29-27 when these teams met in Madison. F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another guy that is extremely tough to cover. Hayes had nine points, seven rebounds, three assists and a block the last time he faced Minnesota. He’s averaging 12.0 PPG over the past two contests and the Badgers will look to get him more involved this time around. Hayes has a very nice midrange jumper and also has the ability to really crash the boards when he has the right mindset. He’ll need to be aggressive as a rebounder in this one. F Sam Dekker (12.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had one of his worst games of the season against the Golden Gophers.
Dekker had just five points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-2 3PT) and three rebounds in 36 minutes that game and must find his stroke this time around. One thing he did do well was defend, as he blocked three shots in that game. Wisconsin needs Dekker to play well on both ends of the floor though. G Bronson Koenig (7.6 PPG, 2.3 APG) continues to thrive as a starter for this team. Koenig was superb when he faced Minnesota last time, finishing with 17 points (4-for-10 FG, 3-for-6 3PT, 6-for-6 FT) and three assists in 39 minutes. He’ll need to take care of the ball and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates on Thursday.
Minnesota has played very well offensively this season, putting up 74.4 PPG (34th in NCAA) on 46.3% shooting (63rd in NCAA). This team moves the ball very well (15.9 APG, 13th in NCAA), but is not strong on the glass (33.1 RPG, 235th in NCAA). They did, however, outrebound Wisconsin the last time they played them. Where this team struggles is on the defensive end, allowing 66.6 PPG (173rd in NCAA) despite 10.0 SPG (3rd in NCAA). The Golden Gophers will need to find a way to slow down a very efficient Badgers offense on Thursday.
G Andre Hollins (14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) is the most important player for Minnesota. Hollins had 17 points and four assists in 30 minutes in the win over Michigan State on Thursday, but he had just two points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-3 3PT) and two assists in the loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 21. Hollins is this team’s leading scorer and he will need to knock down some shots against the Badgers this game. F Maurice Walker (11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) will also need to play well in this game. Walker had eight points, nine rebounds and two blocks in 29 minutes the last time he faced Wisconsin. He’ll need to be a little bit better offensively this time around. He is one of Minnesota’s most reliable scorers and will need to come through in this one.
G DeAndre Mathieu (8.5 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 SPG) had 11 points in 21 minutes in the last meeting between these teams. Mathieu is an excellent passer and knows how to get into the passing lanes. He should be in for bigger minutes this time around and will certainly be ready if his number is called late in the game. G Nate Mason (9.6 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is yet another excellent backcourt player for this team. Mason is a very good outside shooter (41% 3PT) and had 11 points and five assists the last time these teams played. If he can find a way to create some turnovers then he’ll really be helping his team in this one.
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THURSDAY, MARCH 5th 2015
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Thursday, 3/5/15 NCAA College Basketball Knowledge *****
(ALL RESULTS ATS) - Against The Spread - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014-15 NCAA College Basketball season we will analyze all of your daily basketball action, featuring all our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups. Content contained in this report remains exclusive private property of StatSystemsSports.net. Database information may not be reused or disseminated in any form without express written consent of the publisher.
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Thursday's Notebook
•Wisconsin (-14) beat Minnesota 63-53 at home in first meeting 12 days ago; Gophers took one foul shot in whole game (Wisconsin was 11-14). Badgers lost last road game at Maryland, are 3-4 as road favorites, with four of six road wins by 8+ points. Minnesota lost three of its last four games, covered three of last four as an underdog; Gophers are 4-3 in Big Ten home games, with losses by 2-2-6 points. Big Ten underdogs of 6 or less points are 10-7 versus spread.
•Arkansas (-6.5) waxed South Carolina 75-55 at home Feb 3, holding them to 27.9% from floor, forcing 20 turnovers in game that was 35-28 at half. Razorbacks won seven of last eight games, are 5-3 on SEC road, with six of eight games decided by 5 or less points (1-3 as road favorite). Carolina won three of last four home games but is 1-7 as an underdog this season. Gamecocks split last six games after starting SEC play 2-9. SEC home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-7 versus spread.
•Memphis (-2) beat Connecticut 75-72 at home two weeks ago, despite giving up 19 offensive boards in game they led by 15 early in second half. Tigers lost last two games, are 4-3 on AAC road, 0-2 as road dogs, losing games on foreign soil by 14-18-11 points. Connecticut won last three games, is 2-5 as home favorite, winning last seven home games by 6+ points. Senior Night for Huskies' Boatright, key guy on national title team last season. AAC home favorites of 7 or less points are 14-6-1 versus spread.
•VCU (-9) beat Davidson 71-65 Jan 7, forcing only 15 turnovers (+5) but Rams had defensive ace Weber then; VCU lost its last two games, is 3-4 in its last seven, losing two of last three road games. Davidson won last seven games; its Senior Night for Wildcat squad with only one senior in rotation- they're 7-1 as home favorites, with only loss to St Bonaventure. Davidson/Dayton are tied atop A-10; VCU can tie Davidson here. A-10 home favorites of more than 8 points are 12-15-1 versus spread.
•Stanford (-6.5) beat Arizona State 89-70 at home Jan 24, leading 51-41 at half, scoring 1.29 ppp; Cardinal is just 3-5 in its last eight games though, losing last three road games by 1-16-6 points- they're 0-2 as Pac-12 dogs. ASU won its last three home games by total of ten points; they're 2-5 as Pac-12 favorite, 5-5 SU in last ten games. Stanford makes 38.3% on arc; Sun Devils are worst in Pac-12 defending the arc. Pac-12 home teams are 18-15 in games where spread was less than 5 points.
•Sacramento Statehas game lead in Big Sky with two to play; if they win regular season title, they'll host Big Sky tourney for first time next week. Hornets won last three games by 7-8-13 points; they're 4-3 on Big sky road, with one win by more than seven points. Southern Utah won four of last six games after starting league play 2-8; they've covered six of last seven games, are 4-2 as home underdogs, with one loss at home by more than 4 points. Big Sky home underdogs of 4 or less points are 5-9.
MVC Tournament, St Louis
•Missouri Statebeat Southern Illinois twice this season, 53-50 (+3) Dec 31 on road, 52-46 (-3) at home a month later; Salukis shot 33% in both games, had 58-25 edge in FTs taken - they're 2-7 in MVC tourney last seven years. Missouri State is 5-5 in this event last five years; they lost six of last eight games overall, are 6-7-1 as Valley underdogs. Salukis lost nine of last eleven games, are 2-3 as MVC favorites. Bears were just 7-31 on arc in two wins over SIU.
•Drake beat Bradley twice this season, 69-57 (+8) in Peoria Jan 28, then 60-54 (-2) at home two weeks late; Bulldogs made 18-36 on arc in those games, Bradley just 13-46. Drake lost four of last six games, but covered four of last six as an underdog; they're 2-5 in this event since winning it in '08. Bradley lost its last seven games (1-4-2 vs. spread); they lost last four games in this event, three by 14+ points, are 0-4 as an MVC favorite this season. These are four worst teams in MVC, not lot to choose from. .
MAAC Tournament, Albany
•Siena swept Niagara this year, beating Eagles 79-69 (-8.5) here (ran out to 21-1 lead) Jan 11, then 74-70 (+2) on road a week later; they made 50%+ from floor in both games, but Siena comes in here on 5-game skid- they're 2-9 in last 11 games, 3-4-1 as MAAC favorite. Niagara won its last four games, with three wins by 4 or less points. after starting 3-13 in MAAC play; they're 5-3 as MAAC underdogs. Siena is 7-1 in first game of this tourney last eight years; Niagara is 5-1 the last six years.
•Fairfield lost 12 of last 13 games; win was 57-43 (+3.5) over St Peter's 12 days ago, holding Peacocks to 29.6% from floor. Stags covered five of last six games overall; they won first game in this event five of last six years; St Peter's lost four of last five games, is 3-10 vs. spread when favored this season; they're 2-5 in first tourney game last seven years. St Peter's beat Fairfield 69-58 (-5.5) in first meeting Feb 7; they were +8 in turnovers in that game.
•Quinnipiac beat Marist twice this season, 66-54 (-13) in first meeting on Jan 11, then 72-71 (-6.5) at Marist a week later; Bobcats come in losing four of last five games- they're 4-3 against spread in last seven games as favorite. Marist lost six of last seven games but is 5-3 versus spread in last eight games as an underdog. Red Foxes lost their first tourney game last two years by 2-6 points. Quinnipiac ended last year on 1-4 skid; they're on another 1-4 skid now.
Ohio Valley Tournament, Nashville
•Tenn-Martin (-1.5) beat Morehead State 75-72 in OT at home Jan 10, in only meeting this season; Skyhawks were down four with 4:01 left that night. Martin lost two of last three games, covered one of last four when favored, but they had bye last night, while Morehead won tough game by 5 over SE Missouri State, with only one Eagle playing more than 27:00- they used three subs 13+ minutes. This is only third time in decade that Martin had winning record; they won first tourney game other times.
•Over last nine years, Belmont is 19-3 in conference tourney games, with most of that damage done in Atlantic Sun; Bruins went 7-43 from arc in 74-63 loss at Eastern Illinois Jan 10, only meeting this season. EIU used two guys 33-38 minutes in win over Edwardsville last night; no one else played more than 29:00. Panthers lost by 19 to Belmont in only meeting LY. Bruins come in to this tourney winning last four games, covering five of last seven as a favorite.
•Situational Trends of The Day
--IDAHO is 12-0 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls since 1997.
The average score was IDAHO 72.1, OPPONENT 71.8.
--CHARLOTTE is 16-2 UNDER (+13.8 Units) in home games after 5 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers since 1997.
The average score was CHARLOTTE 67.4, OPPONENT 60.5.
--CAL DAVIS is 14-2 (+17.4 Units) against the money line after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games this season.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 74.1, OPPONENT 68.1.
--ARKANSAS is 1-13 (-13.3 Units) against the 1rst half line in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was ARKANSAS 30.4, OPPONENT 37.5.
--ARIZONA is 21-4 UNDER (+16.6 Units) the 1rst half total after 3 straight games - allowing a shooting percentage of 40% or less since 1997.
The average score was ARIZONA 33.3, OPPONENT 31.2.
•Matchup Trends of The Day
--BRADLEY is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
The average score was BRADLEY 59.0, OPPONENT 62.3.
--VA COMMONWEALTH is 17-3 UNDER (+13.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was VA COMMONWEALTH 73.4, OPPONENT 61.2.
--CAL DAVIS is 16-3 (+18.4 Units) against the money line versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season.
The average score was CAL DAVIS 72.5, OPPONENT 66.1.
--ARIZONA is 11-1 (+9.9 Units) against the 1rst half line versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games this season.
The average score was ARIZONA 36.9, OPPONENT 24.7.
--MOREHEAD ST is 13-1 UNDER (+11.9 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MOREHEAD ST 29.4, OPPONENT 30.9.
•Situational Analysis of The Day
--Play On - Underdogs of 2 to 3.5 points versus the first half line (VA COMMONWEALTH) - a good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game, after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread against opponent hot team - covering 12 or more of their last 15 against the spread.
(26-3 since 1997.) (89.7%, +22.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 3.5
The average first half score in these games was: Team 31.2, Opponent 29.6 (Average first half point differential = +1.7)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (11-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (17-1).
____________________________________________
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Missouri Valley Conference Tournament
Expert Handicapper Jude Ravo
Date: March 5-8
Venue: Scottrade Center
Location: St. Louis, Missouri
SCHEDULE
Thursday, March 5
Game #1 - No. 8 Missouri State vs. No. 9 Southern Illinois
Game #2 - No. 7 Drake vs. No. 10 Bradley
Friday, March 6
Game #3 - No. 1 Wichita State vs. Winner Game 1
Game #4 - No. 4 Illinois State vs.. No. 5 Evansville
Game #5 - No. 2 UNI vs. Winner Game 2
Game #6 - No. 3 Indiana State vs. No. 6 Loyola
Saturday, March 7
Game #7 - Winner Game 3 vs. Winner Game 4
Game #8 - Winner Game 5 vs. Winner Game 6
Sunday, March 8
Championship - Winner Game #7 vs. Winner Game #8
TOURNAMENT NOTES:
-- Teams 3-0 SUATS last 3 games are 10-4 ATS off SU dog win.
-- Higher-seeded favorites are 81-10 SU & 57-32-2 ATS in first round games.
-- 11-3 off DD SU win versus opponent off DD SU win w/revenge.
-- Teams off BB SU losses are 1-7 ATS w/revenge versus opponent off BB SU wins.
-- 2-10 off DD SU win versus opponent off DD SU loss.
-- DD dogs are 4-11 ATS off SU dog win.
-- #1 seeds are 18-5-1 ATS w/3+ days rest but only 1-6 ATS as dogs.
-- #2 seeds are 29-7 SU & 22-14 ATS since 2002 and 27-14 ATS as dogs or favorites of < 6 points since 1991.
-- #6 seeds are 4-24 SU.
-- #7 seeds are 3-11 off SU loss and 13-21-1 ATS L35 games overall (4-11 L15 ATS as favorites).
-- #9 seeds are 1-6 ATS when 3-0 SUATS L3 games and 1-5-1 ATS as DD dogs.
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: Wichita State, Northern Iowa, Evansville, Illinois State
THE WAY WE SEE IT: WICHITA STATE is the reigning king of the Valley and Greg Marshall’s troops put on a crowning performance last season, taking a perfect 35-0 record into the Final Four before tasting defeat for the first time. And while there was a serious lack of competition in the MVC last season, the Shockers certainly earned their stripes. They will, however, carry a gigantic bulls-eye on their backs this go-round but you can’t dismiss a 35-1 SU mark in conference games at press time the past two seasons. Is a third straight 30-win season in the offing? Perhaps, but it should be noted that, until last season, the last time Wichita State had won this tournament was back in 1987...
NORTHERN IOWA more than lived up to its billing when the 5-returning starter Panthers battled Wichita State down to the final game for conference honors this campaign. An offensive powerhouse, UNI ranked No. 13 in offensive field goal percentage and No. 16 in 3-point accuracy in the nation this season. And they also lost only one game against the spread away from home this season at press time. Color them super-dangerous...
EVANSVILLE lived up to its preseason expectations (picked to finish 4th in the loop this year) and will be looking to earn its 20th win of the campaign in this tourney. The Aces will need to be all-in if they wish to reverse past failures (10-20-1 ATS, including 2-13-1 ATS versus No. 4 or higher seeds) in this tournament...
ILLINOIS STATE dominated .750 or weaker opposition this season, winning 17 of 22 games, but faltered against better foes, going just 1-6. The Redbirds have rewarded backers in this tourney the past three seasons with a 4-2 ATS wining effort.
THE SLEEPER: Indiana State
The Sycamores more than held their own against sub .700 opposition this season, sporting a 12-6 SU and 10-7 ATS mark, including 4-1 ATS as a dog. They’ve also been a highly credible 8-5 SUATS in this tourney dating back to 2009. Watch and see whether head coach Greg Lansing’s 7-2 SUATS mark in games when seeking revenge from a same-season loss of more than 10 points comes into play should they hook Wichita State.
KEY TOURNEY BEST BET: Play On The #1 Seed In Game One: The simple fact of the matter is numbers don’t lie. Not when the top seed in this tourney is a staggering 24-0 straight-up and 18-5-1 against the spread in its opening game.
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Thursday's Top Action
Systems Analyst James Vogel
WISCONSIN BADGERS (26-3) @ MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (17-12)
Williams Arena – Minneapolis, MN
Tip-Off: Thursday, 7:00 PM EST
Sportsbook.ag Line: Wisconsin -6
No. 6 Wisconsin looks to improve its seed in the NCAA tournament with a road win against Minnesota Thursday. Wisconsin hosted Michigan State on Sunday and came away with a 68-61 win as a 9-point home favorite. The Badgers were up big all game, but the Spartans kept fighting and came away with a backdoor cover. Wisconsin has won 11 of its past 12 games SU, but the team is just 4-7-1 ATS in those contests and hasn’t covered in each of its past four games. Minnesota, meanwhile, beat Michigan State in its last game as well. The Golden Gophers went into East Lansing and won 96-90 as 8-point underdogs. The victory prevented Minnesota from losing its fourth straight game SU, and the team has covered in two straight now.
These teams last met on February 21st, when Wisconsin beat Minnesota 63-53 as a 14.5-point home favorite. The Badgers have won three straight games in this head-to-head series SU and seven of the past 10 SU as well. The Golden Gophers are 6-4 ATS in those games, but Wisconsin has won SU in four of its past five trips to Minneapolis. The Badgers are also 3-2 ATS in those games. While Wisconsin has won 14 of its 16 conference games this season, the team is just 5-10-1 ATS. Minnesota hasn’t fared any better though, going 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS versus Big Ten opponents. G Traevon Jackson (Ankle) is out for this game, but should be back soon for the Badgers. The Golden Gophers are not currently dealing with any injuries.
The Badgers are one of the best two-way teams in college basketball, putting up 71.5 PPG (79th in NCAA) on 47.8% shooting (24th in NCAA) and allowing just 55.8 PPG (7th in NCAA). Bo Ryan coaches this team in a way that allows them to limit turnovers and emphasize taking advantage of mismatches. C Frank Kaminsky (18.1 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 BPG) is one of the leading candidates to be the Naismith College Player of the Year. The big man is nearly impossible to guard with his ability to score around the basket and shoot out to the three-point line (42% 3PT). He had 31 points, eight rebounds, three assists, three blocks and two steals in 37 minutes against Michigan State last game and 21 points (9-for-13 FG, 2-for-3 3PT) the last time he faced Minnesota.
Kaminsky did, however, have just five rebounds in that game and will need to be more effective on the glass because the Golden Gophers outrebounded the Badgers 29-27 when these teams met in Madison. F Nigel Hayes (12.1 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.9 APG) is another guy that is extremely tough to cover. Hayes had nine points, seven rebounds, three assists and a block the last time he faced Minnesota. He’s averaging 12.0 PPG over the past two contests and the Badgers will look to get him more involved this time around. Hayes has a very nice midrange jumper and also has the ability to really crash the boards when he has the right mindset. He’ll need to be aggressive as a rebounder in this one. F Sam Dekker (12.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG) had one of his worst games of the season against the Golden Gophers.
Dekker had just five points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-2 3PT) and three rebounds in 36 minutes that game and must find his stroke this time around. One thing he did do well was defend, as he blocked three shots in that game. Wisconsin needs Dekker to play well on both ends of the floor though. G Bronson Koenig (7.6 PPG, 2.3 APG) continues to thrive as a starter for this team. Koenig was superb when he faced Minnesota last time, finishing with 17 points (4-for-10 FG, 3-for-6 3PT, 6-for-6 FT) and three assists in 39 minutes. He’ll need to take care of the ball and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates on Thursday.
Minnesota has played very well offensively this season, putting up 74.4 PPG (34th in NCAA) on 46.3% shooting (63rd in NCAA). This team moves the ball very well (15.9 APG, 13th in NCAA), but is not strong on the glass (33.1 RPG, 235th in NCAA). They did, however, outrebound Wisconsin the last time they played them. Where this team struggles is on the defensive end, allowing 66.6 PPG (173rd in NCAA) despite 10.0 SPG (3rd in NCAA). The Golden Gophers will need to find a way to slow down a very efficient Badgers offense on Thursday.
G Andre Hollins (14.7 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.1 SPG) is the most important player for Minnesota. Hollins had 17 points and four assists in 30 minutes in the win over Michigan State on Thursday, but he had just two points (1-for-8 FG, 0-for-3 3PT) and two assists in the loss to Wisconsin on Feb. 21. Hollins is this team’s leading scorer and he will need to knock down some shots against the Badgers this game. F Maurice Walker (11.7 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.3 BPG) will also need to play well in this game. Walker had eight points, nine rebounds and two blocks in 29 minutes the last time he faced Wisconsin. He’ll need to be a little bit better offensively this time around. He is one of Minnesota’s most reliable scorers and will need to come through in this one.
G DeAndre Mathieu (8.5 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.7 RPG, 2.0 SPG) had 11 points in 21 minutes in the last meeting between these teams. Mathieu is an excellent passer and knows how to get into the passing lanes. He should be in for bigger minutes this time around and will certainly be ready if his number is called late in the game. G Nate Mason (9.6 PPG, 2.8 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.9 SPG) is yet another excellent backcourt player for this team. Mason is a very good outside shooter (41% 3PT) and had 11 points and five assists the last time these teams played. If he can find a way to create some turnovers then he’ll really be helping his team in this one.
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i covered and he lost with his right play... his was oregon st +1.5GC: NCAAB Play
Thursday Card led by the Conference USA Game Of The Year in College hoops and a 5* PAC 12 Play in the Stanford vs Arizona St game. Top play on St. Johns cashes easily. In the NBA The roll continues a 3rd straight board sweep. Tonight its a Powerful 90% TNT System. Free NCAAB Play below.
On Thursday the NCAAB Play is in Missouri Valley Conference play is on Drake. Game 556 at 9:30 Eastern. Drake is cake tonight. Both teams are well under .500 this season. However Drake has beaten Bradley both times and has won 6 of 9 vs teams ranked 200 or worse in the RPI Scale. They have covered 4 of 5 as a neutral court dog and are 4-1 ats last 5 vs losing teams. When playing teams taht score 64 or less points they have covered 80% of the time. Bradley is 1-10 ats vs losing teams, 1-7 ats vs teams who score 64 or less, 0-3 as a neutral favorite of 3 or less, 2-6 with road loss revenge and 3-12 after allowing 60 or less. Look for Drake to sweep the season series. On Thursday the powerful card is led by the Conference USA Game of the year and as 5* PAC 12 Play in the Stanford vs Arizona St game on Fox spots 1.Last nights Top Play on St. Johns cashed big. In the NBA we have a 90% Power system on one of the TNT Games. NBA is on a 6-0 run after a 3rd straight board sweep last night. Jump on now and cash big with the most powerful and exclusive data in the industry. For the Bonus Play. Take Drake. GC
Thursday Card led by the Conference USA Game Of The Year in College hoops and a 5* PAC 12 Play in the Stanford vs Arizona St game. Top play on St. Johns cashes easily. In the NBA The roll continues a 3rd straight board sweep. Tonight its a Powerful 90% TNT System. Free NCAAB Play below.
On Thursday the NCAAB Play is in Missouri Valley Conference play is on Drake. Game 556 at 9:30 Eastern. Drake is cake tonight. Both teams are well under .500 this season. However Drake has beaten Bradley both times and has won 6 of 9 vs teams ranked 200 or worse in the RPI Scale. They have covered 4 of 5 as a neutral court dog and are 4-1 ats last 5 vs losing teams. When playing teams taht score 64 or less points they have covered 80% of the time. Bradley is 1-10 ats vs losing teams, 1-7 ats vs teams who score 64 or less, 0-3 as a neutral favorite of 3 or less, 2-6 with road loss revenge and 3-12 after allowing 60 or less. Look for Drake to sweep the season series. On Thursday the powerful card is led by the Conference USA Game of the year and as 5* PAC 12 Play in the Stanford vs Arizona St game on Fox spots 1.Last nights Top Play on St. Johns cashed big. In the NBA we have a 90% Power system on one of the TNT Games. NBA is on a 6-0 run after a 3rd straight board sweep last night. Jump on now and cash big with the most powerful and exclusive data in the industry. For the Bonus Play. Take Drake. GC
Just wanted to apologize for copying & pasting the Oregon play. The play was on the Beavers. It was an honest mistake and hopefully ppl didn't get burned by it. Won't happen again. Sorry dough for not getting back to u on your PM but I didn't log back on once I posted the play.
Btw, thx CPAW for all u do here.?
ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS
03/05/2015 NEWS & NOTES
JEFF BARONE
(NBA) OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 CHICAGO (8PM)
(NCAAB) MARSHALL +15 OLD DOMINION (8PM)
GOODFELLAS
(NCAAB) MISSOURI ST +2 SO ILLINOIS (7PM)
(NCAAB) FLORIDA INTL +3.5 MIDDLE TENN ST (730PM)
(NCAAB) IDAHO ST +8 E. WASHINGTON (9PM)
SIMON CERBONE
Soccer ( Thursday March 5th)
•ITALY - COPPA ITALIA- (OVER 2.5 +105) AC FIORENTINA @ JUVENTUS TURIN (245PM)
03/05/2015 NEWS & NOTES
JEFF BARONE
(NBA) OKLAHOMA CITY -2.5 CHICAGO (8PM)
(NCAAB) MARSHALL +15 OLD DOMINION (8PM)
GOODFELLAS
(NCAAB) MISSOURI ST +2 SO ILLINOIS (7PM)
(NCAAB) FLORIDA INTL +3.5 MIDDLE TENN ST (730PM)
(NCAAB) IDAHO ST +8 E. WASHINGTON (9PM)
SIMON CERBONE
Soccer ( Thursday March 5th)
•ITALY - COPPA ITALIA- (OVER 2.5 +105) AC FIORENTINA @ JUVENTUS TURIN (245PM)
