Craig Davis
Thursday's Lineup
50 Dime – OLE MISS
15 Dime – LAKERS
OLE MISS --- I don't normally like to lay this many dimes on a team giving double digits, but tonight's game in Oxford is going to get ugly from the early going and it won't get any better for the road Tigers. LSU did the unthinkable last week by winning its first SEC game... an 11-point home win over erratic Arkansas. I'm not taking anything away from the Tigers for that win... it was clearly a complete team effort and they should be very proud. But let's be honest --- the 'Hogs suck on the road and have been known to score 80+ one week only to turn around and score in the 50s the next week. But what I want you to focus on is how LSU responded to their first conference win of the year... a 15-point loss to Auburn.
Taking nothing away from Auburn, I don't believe they are as talented as Ole Miss and if they can beat this LSU bunch by 15, it's only a matter of time before the Rebels get up by 15 and then completely run the Tigers out of the gym. LSU has just 10 wins on the season... and ALL of them came at home. They haven't won a single game on the road or at a neutral site, losing by an average 16 PPG away from home. LSU is averaging right around 57 PPG on the road while Ole Miss chips in around 80 per game at home... and nothing in my research leads me to believe the Rebs can't get to 80 again tonight.
In their earlier meeting, Ole Miss went to Baton Rouge and walked out with a 10-point win (73-63) on the strength of three scorers in double figures and three others scoring at least eight points. LSU, on the other hand, had two players play the entire 40 minutes and tired down the stretch. These are two teams headed in different directions as LSU is simply looking forward to baseball season while the Rebels are looking for a big statement win for the Tourney Selection Committee. I'm not saying the Rebels aren't going to be invited to the Big Dance, but a HUGE win this evening can't hurt.
Ole Miss has covered 14 of 23 lined games this season while the Tigers are just 8-16 ATS (3-8 ATS on the road). Do you really think LSU is excited to still be playing? I don't... and it will show tonight. The Rebels want to end the regular season in style, on Senior Night, with a double digit win over a very shallow LSU squad. The Rebs get the job done in style as your top play of the day.
LA LAKERS --- With no disrespect meant to Dwayne Wade, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers are simply a better team and are looking forward to the challenge of going on the road to play a quality opponent. After their 20+ point home win over Indiana the other night, I think the Lakers will welcome the challenge of getting back on the road and facing a team like this. The Lakers actually have a better road record than the Heat have a home record, and have won three of their last four road games by an average of almost 10 PPG. Miami is just starting to get its feet wet again with Dwayne Wade back in the lineup, but this is hardly the opponent you want to face when things seem to be turning around again.
Miami used 35 points from Wade in a 110-106 home win over Golden State, but if the Heat are going to win tonight they're going to need the same type of production from Wade that he delivered against the Warriors... and that simply won't happen. They'll also need a supporting player to step up, whether it be Michael Beasley or Jermaine O'Neal, helping to take the attention off Wade.
Miami has lost four of their last five SU and has failed to cover the Vegas line in their last four straight games. They aren't rebounding like they should and they clearly aren't shooting a good enough percentage from the field. What it boils down to is this: The Lakers are deeper and more talented and would love nothing more than to steal a win on the road, especially to begin an East Coast trip. The Lake-show has covered five of their last six after scoring 100 or more in their previous game, 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS win, and 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing percentage. Bonus play of the day on the Lakers
BOUGHT,PAID AND CONFIRMED--------GL GUYS