NBA
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Hot Teams
-- Lakers won last seven games, are 15-1 since All-Star break. Mavericks won their last five games (4-1 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- San Antonio lost its last four games, by 3-2-7-8 points. Celtics lost three of last four games (0-4 vs spread).
Totals
-- 10 of last 11 Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total.
Back-to-Back
-- Dallas is 7-2 vs spread on road playing second nite in row on road.
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Hot Teams
-- Lakers won last seven games, are 15-1 since All-Star break. Mavericks won their last five games (4-1 vs spread).
Cold Teams
-- San Antonio lost its last four games, by 3-2-7-8 points. Celtics lost three of last four games (0-4 vs spread).
Totals
-- 10 of last 11 Boston games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Dallas games stayed under total.
Back-to-Back
-- Dallas is 7-2 vs spread on road playing second nite in row on road.
NCAAB
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Alabama won 20 of last 25 games after starting season 5-6; Tide is best team in country at creating steals, but Wichita State is pretty good at protecting ball. Shockers won by 31 in semis, despite going just 3-16 from arc. Wichita State beat LSU by a point in its only game vs SEC foe- they're 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Bama is 7-6 in tilts decided by 7 or less points; Wichita State is 5-7. SEC teams are 10-5 vs spread as an underdog of 5 or less points. MVC favorites of 5 or less points are 11-12. Alabama is 4-8 vs spread as an underdog this year.
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Alabama won 20 of last 25 games after starting season 5-6; Tide is best team in country at creating steals, but Wichita State is pretty good at protecting ball. Shockers won by 31 in semis, despite going just 3-16 from arc. Wichita State beat LSU by a point in its only game vs SEC foe- they're 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as favorite. Bama is 7-6 in tilts decided by 7 or less points; Wichita State is 5-7. SEC teams are 10-5 vs spread as an underdog of 5 or less points. MVC favorites of 5 or less points are 11-12. Alabama is 4-8 vs spread as an underdog this year.
NHL
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Hot Teams
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Thrashers are 6-0 in games following their last six losses.
-- Rangers won six of last eight games, but scored total of three goals in their last four games (1-2 in last three).
-- Bruins, Toronto both won four of their last five games.
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games. Lightning won its last two games, 4-2/5-2.
-- Predators won six of their last seven games.
-- Kings won four in row, eight of last ten games. Vancouver won four in a row, 10 of last 11 games.
-- San Jose won five of its last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Blue Jackets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Flyers lost their last four home games.
-- Islanders lost three in row, six of last eight games.
-- Florida lost its last six games, scoring eight goals. Senators lost four of their last five road games.
-- Edmonton lost its last ten games, scoring 11 goals. Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games.
-- Colorado lost three in row, 13 of last 15 games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last four games, three in OT or SO.
Totals
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Columbus games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Ranger games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total. Four of last five Toronto games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Three of last four Penguin games stayed under the total. Tampa Bay's last four games went over.
-- Under is 8-2 in last ten Edmonton games.
-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Colorado games.
-- Five of last six Los Angeles games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven San Jose games.
Back-to-Back
-- Islanders are 2-6 if they lost the night before. Rangers are 4-1 if they are playing second consecutive night on the road.
Series records
-- Columbus/Washington split last six games, with road team winning five of the six.
-- Thrashers won six of last seven games against Philadelphia.
-- Rangers won their last four games against the Islanders.
-- Bruins lost three of last four games against Toronto.
-- Senators won their last five games against Florida.
-- Penguins are 7-3 in last ten games vs Tampa Bay, winning last couple games, 5-1/8-1.
-- Oilers are 0-4 vs Minnesota this season, outscored 16-6.
-- Predators won six of last seven games against Colorado.
-- Kings are 5-10 in their last fifteen games against Vancouver.
-- Dallas Stars are 5-2 in last seven visits to San Jose.
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
Hot Teams
-- Washington won 12 of its last 15 games.
-- Thrashers are 6-0 in games following their last six losses.
-- Rangers won six of last eight games, but scored total of three goals in their last four games (1-2 in last three).
-- Bruins, Toronto both won four of their last five games.
-- Pittsburgh won six of its last eight games. Lightning won its last two games, 4-2/5-2.
-- Predators won six of their last seven games.
-- Kings won four in row, eight of last ten games. Vancouver won four in a row, 10 of last 11 games.
-- San Jose won five of its last six games.
Cold Teams
-- Blue Jackets lost six of their last eight games.
-- Flyers lost their last four home games.
-- Islanders lost three in row, six of last eight games.
-- Florida lost its last six games, scoring eight goals. Senators lost four of their last five road games.
-- Edmonton lost its last ten games, scoring 11 goals. Minnesota is 1-8 in its last nine games.
-- Colorado lost three in row, 13 of last 15 games.
-- Dallas Stars lost last four games, three in OT or SO.
Totals
-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Columbus games.
-- Three of last four Atlanta games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Ranger games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Boston games stayed under the total. Four of last five Toronto games went over.
-- Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Florida games.
-- Three of last four Penguin games stayed under the total. Tampa Bay's last four games went over.
-- Under is 8-2 in last ten Edmonton games.
-- Over is 9-2 in last eleven Colorado games.
-- Five of last six Los Angeles games stayed under total.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven San Jose games.
Back-to-Back
-- Islanders are 2-6 if they lost the night before. Rangers are 4-1 if they are playing second consecutive night on the road.
Series records
-- Columbus/Washington split last six games, with road team winning five of the six.
-- Thrashers won six of last seven games against Philadelphia.
-- Rangers won their last four games against the Islanders.
-- Bruins lost three of last four games against Toronto.
-- Senators won their last five games against Florida.
-- Penguins are 7-3 in last ten games vs Tampa Bay, winning last couple games, 5-1/8-1.
-- Oilers are 0-4 vs Minnesota this season, outscored 16-6.
-- Predators won six of last seven games against Colorado.
-- Kings are 5-10 in their last fifteen games against Vancouver.
-- Dallas Stars are 5-2 in last seven visits to San Jose.
MLB
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
For first week or two of any season, not lot of stats make sense, but I'll be giving you pitching stats that refer back to LY. We'll start the umpire stats in late April-- will give you pitcher vs team stats until some of the other stats start to become relevant. We're here every day-- enjoy!!!
Pitchers
Hot pitchers
-- Lowe is 5-2, 1.73 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-0, 3.77 in his last five starts. Volquez has a 3.07 RA in his last five starts, but only one win.
-- Stauffer is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 9-2, 2.30 in his last eleven starts. Kershaw was 4-3, 2.50 in his last eight starts.
-- Verlander is 4-1, 1.80 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts.
Cold pitchers
-- LHernandez is 2-4, 6.51 in his last eight starts.
-- Carpenter is 1-4, 6.83 in his last five starts.
-- Sabathia has a 5.70 RA in his last five starts, but Bronx is still 11-3 in his last 14 outings.
-- Hochevar is 1-3, 5.19 in his last five starts.
Totals
-- Lowe's last four starts stayed under the total.
-- Last Volquez starts stayed under total; over is 8-3-1 in Gallardo's last dozen outings.
-- All seven Stauffer starts LY stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Kershaw starts stayed under the total. 5:00 local time start means lot of shadows if its a sunny day.
-- Six of last nine Verlander starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1 in Hochever's last six home starts. Under is 16-2-1 in last 19 Weaver starts.
Pitchers vs teams last year
-- Lowe was 2-3, 3.52 vs Washington LY. LHernandez was 2-1, 2.64 in five starts against the Braves.
-- Gallardo was 0-2, 9.58 in three starts vs Reds LY. Volquez was 1-0, 3.86 in two starts against Milwaukee.
-- Stauffer lost 4-0 in St Louis Sept 16, allowing four runs in five IP.
-- Lincecum was 2-0, 3.57 in three starts vs LA last season. Kershaw was 1-1, 2.17 in four starts against the Giants LY.
-- Verlander was 1-1, 2.31 against Bronx LY. Sabathia was 1-1, 5.54 in two starts against Detroit LY.
-- Weaver was 1-0, 0.60 in two '10 starts against the Royals (15 IP). Hochever lost 7-1 to Angels May 31 (five runs/seven IP).
Write-Up
Thursday, March 31
For first week or two of any season, not lot of stats make sense, but I'll be giving you pitching stats that refer back to LY. We'll start the umpire stats in late April-- will give you pitcher vs team stats until some of the other stats start to become relevant. We're here every day-- enjoy!!!
Pitchers
Hot pitchers
-- Lowe is 5-2, 1.73 in his last seven starts.
-- Gallardo is 3-0, 3.77 in his last five starts. Volquez has a 3.07 RA in his last five starts, but only one win.
-- Stauffer is 2-1, 1.37 in his last three starts.
-- Lincecum is 9-2, 2.30 in his last eleven starts. Kershaw was 4-3, 2.50 in his last eight starts.
-- Verlander is 4-1, 1.80 in his last five starts.
-- Weaver is 3-1, 2.55 in his last five starts.
Cold pitchers
-- LHernandez is 2-4, 6.51 in his last eight starts.
-- Carpenter is 1-4, 6.83 in his last five starts.
-- Sabathia has a 5.70 RA in his last five starts, but Bronx is still 11-3 in his last 14 outings.
-- Hochevar is 1-3, 5.19 in his last five starts.
Totals
-- Lowe's last four starts stayed under the total.
-- Last Volquez starts stayed under total; over is 8-3-1 in Gallardo's last dozen outings.
-- All seven Stauffer starts LY stayed under total.
-- Four of last five Kershaw starts stayed under the total. 5:00 local time start means lot of shadows if its a sunny day.
-- Six of last nine Verlander starts went over the total.
-- Under is 5-1 in Hochever's last six home starts. Under is 16-2-1 in last 19 Weaver starts.
Pitchers vs teams last year
-- Lowe was 2-3, 3.52 vs Washington LY. LHernandez was 2-1, 2.64 in five starts against the Braves.
-- Gallardo was 0-2, 9.58 in three starts vs Reds LY. Volquez was 1-0, 3.86 in two starts against Milwaukee.
-- Stauffer lost 4-0 in St Louis Sept 16, allowing four runs in five IP.
-- Lincecum was 2-0, 3.57 in three starts vs LA last season. Kershaw was 1-1, 2.17 in four starts against the Giants LY.
-- Verlander was 1-1, 2.31 against Bronx LY. Sabathia was 1-1, 5.54 in two starts against Detroit LY.
-- Weaver was 1-0, 0.60 in two '10 starts against the Royals (15 IP). Hochever lost 7-1 to Angels May 31 (five runs/seven IP).
No problem, CPAW. I just don't want your members to be misled by this fraudulent activity. Feel free to contact me at jwkeim25@aol.com and I will explain in greater detail. In the meantime, anyone claiming to be posting my real plays is being completely disingenous.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee +106 over CINCINNATI
The most significant additions for the Brewers this off-season were pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Brewers also hope to have added some pop at shortstop with the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals. Betancourt slugged 16 homers and knocked in 78 runs for KC last year and he now joins an offense with a lot more sting, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (he led the majors in home runs (29), runs (112) and RBI (83) from the leadoff spot) Casey McGehee, Corey Hart (on 15 day DL) and Ryan Braun to name a few. Yovani Gallardo gets the opening day assignment and deservedly so. Last April, the right-hander made five starts and gave his squad 29 solid frames, striking out 29 and inducing a 53% ground-ball rate. 2010 was a breakout year for Gallardo with a career-best 14 victories, 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and a first All-Star selection. Gallardo is an elite talent that has not received the recognition he deserves. He can fly under the radar again for his first few starts, as all the attention is on Marcum and Greinke. The Reds have a potent offense too but in no way do they have an edge on the mound today. Edinson Volquez returned from last year's Tommy John surgery on July 17 and remained an all or nothing pitcher. His velocity returned but he had trouble finding the plate. Volquez’s inaccuracy let to an ugly WHIP of 1.77 and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.74. Lest we forget, Volquez served a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs while rehabbing in the minors earlier last season and one had to wonder how he would perform when he was "clean"? We’re just sayin’. Not anxious to be laying anything here with an inferior and erratic chucker on the mound. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +169 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes like this: When offered +169 on Tim Stauffer, take it and ask no questions. Stauffer is an emerging talent and while his 6-5 record from 2010 may not stand out, his ERA of 1.82 does. Since Stauffer spent most of his time in relief, he's undervalued in the starting role but his elite ground-ball profile of 68% is off the charts and it was no fluke, as he maintained that profile for a long duration covering 82 innings. The Padres lost their best hitter, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to free agency but added two new pieces in shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. To help replace Gonzalez’s production, San Diego signed Brad Hawpe to a one-year deal in hopes of the youngster finding the bat he had n 2009 with the Rockies when he hit .285 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 86 RBI and 82 runs scored, en route to his first All-Star selection. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis and he needs no introduction. Despite Carpenter’s immense talent, there’s no getting around his injury history and his advancing age (35). This spring Carpenter was removed from a game with a hamstring pull. In four spring starts covering 17 innings, Carpenter went 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA while walking 10 and striking out 10. Certainly he can shine again but this isn’t about wagering against Carpenter. This is all about taking back a ridiculously high price on a quality pitcher that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught wind of yet. Play: San Diego +169 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +106 over CINCINNATI
The most significant additions for the Brewers this off-season were pitchers, Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. The Brewers also hope to have added some pop at shortstop with the addition of Yuniesky Betancourt from the Royals. Betancourt slugged 16 homers and knocked in 78 runs for KC last year and he now joins an offense with a lot more sting, including Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (he led the majors in home runs (29), runs (112) and RBI (83) from the leadoff spot) Casey McGehee, Corey Hart (on 15 day DL) and Ryan Braun to name a few. Yovani Gallardo gets the opening day assignment and deservedly so. Last April, the right-hander made five starts and gave his squad 29 solid frames, striking out 29 and inducing a 53% ground-ball rate. 2010 was a breakout year for Gallardo with a career-best 14 victories, 200 strikeouts for the second straight season and a first All-Star selection. Gallardo is an elite talent that has not received the recognition he deserves. He can fly under the radar again for his first few starts, as all the attention is on Marcum and Greinke. The Reds have a potent offense too but in no way do they have an edge on the mound today. Edinson Volquez returned from last year's Tommy John surgery on July 17 and remained an all or nothing pitcher. His velocity returned but he had trouble finding the plate. Volquez’s inaccuracy let to an ugly WHIP of 1.77 and an alarmingly high ERA of 4.74. Lest we forget, Volquez served a 50 game suspension for performance enhancing drugs while rehabbing in the minors earlier last season and one had to wonder how he would perform when he was "clean"? We’re just sayin’. Not anxious to be laying anything here with an inferior and erratic chucker on the mound. Play: Milwaukee +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +169 over ST. LOUIS
The equation here is a rather simple one and it goes like this: When offered +169 on Tim Stauffer, take it and ask no questions. Stauffer is an emerging talent and while his 6-5 record from 2010 may not stand out, his ERA of 1.82 does. Since Stauffer spent most of his time in relief, he's undervalued in the starting role but his elite ground-ball profile of 68% is off the charts and it was no fluke, as he maintained that profile for a long duration covering 82 innings. The Padres lost their best hitter, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to free agency but added two new pieces in shortstop Jason Bartlett and second baseman Orlando Hudson. To help replace Gonzalez’s production, San Diego signed Brad Hawpe to a one-year deal in hopes of the youngster finding the bat he had n 2009 with the Rockies when he hit .285 with 42 doubles, 23 home runs, 86 RBI and 82 runs scored, en route to his first All-Star selection. Chris Carpenter takes the mound for St. Louis and he needs no introduction. Despite Carpenter’s immense talent, there’s no getting around his injury history and his advancing age (35). This spring Carpenter was removed from a game with a hamstring pull. In four spring starts covering 17 innings, Carpenter went 2-1 with a 5.19 ERA while walking 10 and striking out 10. Certainly he can shine again but this isn’t about wagering against Carpenter. This is all about taking back a ridiculously high price on a quality pitcher that the oddsmakers haven’t quite caught wind of yet. Play: San Diego +169 (Risking 2 units).
